David Marks’ previous book about the paranormal (Marks, 2000) and other earlier writings established his reputation as a firm skeptic. He wrote the current book in order to learn about new developments in paranormal research during the past 20 years. The overall conclusion in this book is that Marks now believes that spontaneous paranormal phenomena may occur, but psi is a spontaneous process that cannot be controlled and demonstrated in laboratory experiments. His belief that instances of spontaneous psi may occur is based largely on a personal experience of synchronicity that had layers of meaning for him. The experience is described and evaluated in chapter four. He rates the probability as 75% that the experience had a paranormal component.
Power analysis is used to determine the sample size needed to have a reasonable likelihood of obtaining significant results. It is particularly important for interpreting nonsignificant or marginal results. My experience working in medical research for over a decade has been that power analysis is usually expected as part of grant applications and is required in the protocols for studies submitted to FDA to support approval of new products.
Caroline Watt's (2005) thoughtful and stimulating presidential address to the Parapsychology Association raised several points that could help parapsychology. For example, she pointed out that the proposals in a recent article by me on "A Proposal and Challenge for Proponents and Skeptics of Psi" (Kennedy, 2004a) would enhance the evidential value of meta-analysis. That point is true, but it may be useful to extend the discussion beyond enhancements to meta-analysis.
Many writers have noted that psi appears to be capricious and actively evasive. The evidence includes the unintended and undesired (a) reversal of direction of psi effects between and within studies, (b) loss of intended effects while unintended internal effects occur, (c) declines in effects for subjects, experimenters, and lines of research, and (d) failure to develop successful applications of psi. These characteristics are inconsistent with the assumptions for statistical research and have not been explained. Investigating the effects that psi experiences have on people may provide insights about the function of capricious, evasive psi. Research studies have found that the primary effect of spontaneous psi experiences is to alter a person’s worldview and increase his or her sense of spirituality and meaning in life. The primary function of psi may be spiritual transformation. The instances of striking psi draw attention away from the material world and the capricious, evasive properties of psi prevent psi from being used for material self-interest. Psi and mystical experiences have several common characteristics that suggest that they derive from a common source. Another factor that complicates psi research is that many people apparently have motivations to misinterpret normal experiences as paranormal. These motivations include needs to control and to change the world and to feel superior to other people. A person’s attitude toward paranormal phenomena appears to be related to innate personality differences. Research on spiritual and paranormal beliefs and on personality factors may promote better understanding among people with different dispositions. Investigating the relationship between psi and spirituality-related factors such as humility and gratitude may be one of the more productive strategies for scientific progress in parapsychology. 1 This paper combines parts of three longer papers (Kennedy, 2003a; Kennedy, 2005; and Kennedy, in press).
Four experiments were carried out in an investigation of the possibility that the contingent negative variation (CNV) could show evidence for a precognitive component of anticipation. The CNV is a slow negative EEG potential that arises when a person anticipates an event requiring a response. Although the findings are often unreliable and sometimes inconsistent, CNV amplitude has been related to a number of psychological functions such as expectancy, intention to act, general motivation, attention, and arousal. In accordance with the standard procedure for CNV research, a constant foreperiod reaction time paradigm was used. A warning stimulus (S1) was followed in a short period by another stimulus (S2), which was either a red or green light. If S2 was green, the subject pushed a button as quickly as possible, while no response was required for the red S2. The decision as to whether S2 was red or green was made by a Schmidt binary RNG (P = 1/2) immediately before the light was displayed. If subjects were precognitively anticipating the need to push the button, the amplitude of the CNV should be larger for green S2 than for red S2. Analyses f o r ESP were carried out by comparing the proportion of times the green light came on for trials with CNV amplitudes above versus below the mean for each subject. The first study was carried out in 1974 and had five subjects. The S1-S2 interval was 1.25 seconds. For the f i rs t three subjects an absence of a green light for S2 rather than a red l ight meant that no response was needed. Each subject did two runs, both emphasizing the reaction-time task; but in the second, the subjects were also asked to use PK to make the green light come on. A preliminary analysis
According to the prevailing view in biology, the driving force for biological evolution is self-serving enhancement of reproductive and associated material success through competition and struggle for existence. However, the evolution of consciousness in humans has resulted in symbolic thought and culture that can disengage from the instinctive self-interests underlying evolution. This evolution of consciousness includes the emergence of spirituality, and motivations for transcendence and ethics beyond self-interest. Experimental parapsychology has assumed that psi is directed by needs and motivations based on self-interest. However, both experimental and spontaneous case findings suggest that psi is generally not guided by conventional motivations and needs. The parapsychological assumptions have not produced significant scientific progress and the experimental results appear capricious and actively evasive. On the other hand, paranormal phenomena tend to inspire an enhanced sense of connectedness, meaning in life, and spirituality, and have had a major role in most spiritual traditions. Psi appears to have the function of drawing attention to spiritual matters. The instances of striking psi draw attention away from the material world, and the capricious, actively evasive characteristics of psi thwart efforts to use psi for material self-interests. Enhanced consciousness can be viewed as the self-evident result of biological evolution, the ultimate goal of spirituality, and the primary effect of paranormal experiences. Interest in spirituality and related paranormal phenomena appears to be associated with personality traits that have significant genetic components.
Questionnaires were developed to investigate the effects that paranormal and transcendent/spiritual experiences have on peoples' lives. Data from a convenience sample of 120 people actively interested in parapsychology who reported having had at least one paranormal and/or transcendent experience showed that these experiences increased their interest and beliefs in spiritual matters and increased their sense of well-being. More specifically, the majority of respondents indicated that the experiences resulted in increased belief in life after death, belief that their lives are guided or watched over by a higher force or being, interest in spiritual or religious matters, sense of connection to others, happiness, well-being, confidence, optimism about the future, and meaning in life. They also indicated decreases in fear of death, depression or anxiety, isolation and loneliness, and worry and fears about the future. A large majority of respondents indicated that these effects resulted from a combination of more than one paranormal and/or transcendent experience. The magnitude of changes in well-being and spirituality were positively associated with the number of anomalous experiences. Measures of current well-being and current importance of spirituality were positively associated with reported changes in well-being and spirituality resulting from anomalous experiences. Although 45% of the respondents indicated that a paranormal experience had made them very afraid, this fear appeared to be temporary or mixed with positive feeling because only 9% indicated that their experiences have been scary with no positive value. Further research should investigate the extent to which the findings for this selected sample apply to other populations and the extent to which motivations relating to spirituality direct or underlie the occurrence of paranormal phenomena, including in experimental settings. Recent research suggests that a world view that is open to aspects of life beyond the physicalmaterialistic realm can be conducive to health and well-being (Borysenko, 1993; Gartner, Larson, & Allen, 1991; Koenig, 1990; Larson, et al., 1992; Ornish, 1990). Interest in this research on mindbody medicine and the link between spirituality and health is rapidly growing. Although one might expect that psychic experiences would promote this type of worldview, ____________________ The authors thank the referees for making valuable comments on an earlier version of this paper. We also want to thank Dr. K. Ramakrishna Rao for his encouragement and support of this project and Joann Romano for data entry. This study was supported in part by the Mary Fleig Research Fellowship Fund from the Foundation for Research on the Nature of Man.
NRC recently completed a strategic assessment of its low-level radioactive waste (LLW) regulatory program. In this paper, we provide the results of this assessment—a prioritized list of activities for our LLW program in the next several years—along with a description of the circumstances that required us to undertake this assessment and the process we used. We obtained ideas from a wide variety of stakeholders on activities we could undertake, and we evaluated them in light of our overall strategic objectives for ensuring safety and security, as well as a number of other factors. We ranked 7 of the 20 activities evaluated as high priority. Their completion in the next several years will help to ensure that LLW will continue to be managed and disposed of safely and securely.
The National Policy of the United States is safe, permanent, surface or subsurface disposal of non-high-level radioactive waste from the nuclear fuel cycle to ensure long-term containment and isolation from the environment. That policy is contained in the fundamental U.S. laws governing nuclear fuel cycle wastes—the Atomic Energy Act, the Low-Level Radioactive Waste Policy Amendments Act of 1985, and the recently passed National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2005 (NDAA), among others. The U.S. has been largely successful in implementing this policy to date and most of the low-level radioactive waste (LLRW) generated by NRC licensees has been safely disposed, rather than stored. Only greater-than-class C (GTCC) LLRW has been without a disposal option. At the same time, the U.S. program for radioactive waste disposal can be improved in a number of ways to enhance safety, to better utilize risk information in decision-making, to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the overall program, and to enhance openness. This paper will address four "emerging answers" that aid in moving the country towards the goal of safe, permanent disposal for all types of non-high level radioactive waste generated in the nuclear fuel cycle.
Paranormal beliefs and experiences are associated with certain personality factors, including absorption, fantasy proneness, and the Myers-Briggs intuition and feeling personality dimensions. Skepticism appears to be associated with materialistic, rational, pragmatic personality types. Attitude toward psi may also be influenced by motivations to have control and efficacy, to have a sense of meaning and purpose in life, to be connected with others, to have transcendent experiences, to have self-worth, to feel superior to others, and to be healed. The efforts to obtain reliable control of psi in experimental parapsychology have not been successful. Given the lack of control and lack of practical application of psi, it is not surprising that those who are by disposition materialistic and pragmatic find the evidence for psi to be unconvincing. When psi experiences have been examined without a bias for control, the primary effect has been found to be enhanced meaning in life and spirituality, similar to mystical experiences. Tensions among those with mystical, authoritarian, and scientific dispositions have been common in the history of paranormal and religious beliefs. Scientific research can do much to create better understanding among people with different dispositions. Understanding the motivations related to paranormal beliefs is a prerequisite for addressing questions about when and if psi actually occurs.
For 50 years, high intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) has been a subject of interest for medical research. HIFU causes selective tissue necrosis in a very well defined volume, at a variable distance from the transducer, through heating or cavitation. Over the past decade, the use of HIFU has been investigated in many clinical settings. This literature review aims to summarize recent advances made in the field. A Medline-based literature search (1965-2002) was conducted using the keywords ''HIFU'' and ''high intensity focused ultrasound''. Additional literature was obtained from original papers and published meeting abstracts. The most abundant clinical trial data comes from studies investigating its use in the treatment of prostatic disease, although early research looked at applications in neurosurgery. More recently horizons have been broadened, and the potential of HIFU as a non-invasive surgical tool has been demonstrated in many settings including the treatment of tumours of the liver, kidney, breast, bone, uterus and pancreas, as well as conduction defects in the heart, for surgical haemostasis, and the relief of chronic pain of malignant origin. Further clinical evaluation will follow, but recent technological development suggests that HIFU is likely to play a significant role in future surgical practice. The quest continues for a reliable and minimally-invasive alternative to open surgery. The endoscopic revolution is well underway and there is much research activity in other fields such as laser, radiofrequency, cryo-, thermo- and brachy-therapies. Lithotripsy is now an established treat- ment for stone disease, but currently, the only non-invasive modalities in mainstream use for cancer treatment are chemotherapy and radiotherapy, both of which carry significant side-effect profiles. High intensity focused ultrasound (HIFU) has the potential to provide the clinician with another truly non- invasive, targeted treatment option. Its scope is not, however, limited to the direct treatment of cancers. It may also be used in a palliative setting for relief of chronic pain of malignant origin, for haemostasis, or even for the treatment of cardiac conduction or congenital anomalies.
Anecdotal observations suggest that the extreme skeptics of paranormal phe- nomena tend to be males who place great value on rational thinking and control, and often feel threatened by and hostile toward those with different beliefs and values. These characteristics are consistent with the emerging evidence that males have genetic tendencies for social dominance and rational thinking. Research on the relationship between religion and belief in psi has given mixed results but suggests that belief may be more related to personal spirituality than to institutionalized religion. As a first step in understanding the polarization of psi beliefs, gender and spirituality were examined for extreme skeptics and extreme believers in psi from a Canadian representative national survey. For the extreme skeptics, 72% were male and 62% did not consider spirituality important. For the extreme believers, 64% were female and 86% considered spirituality important. These and other findings suggest that skepticism and belief in psi may be associated with genetic, sex-related personality factors. Research on paranormal beliefs may be hindered by the failure to distinguish belief in psi as a human ablility versus divine intervention.
The objective of this study was to design and implement a maximum surgical blood order schedule (MSBOS) within a specialist gynecological oncology department in a tertiary referral center and evaluate its impact on the cross-match to transfusion ratio (CTR). A retrospective case note audit was undertaken to identify common operations performed within the unit and their transfusion requirements. The efficiency of blood usage was assessed using the CTR, and an MSBOS was devised and implemented. A prospective audit of preoperative blood cross-matching and subsequent blood usage was then performed for consecutive elective operations in the unit, to assess the effect of the MSBOS. The retrospective study of 222 cases demonstrated a CTR of 2.25 equivalent to 44% usage of cross-matched blood. Ninety two percent of operations performed within the unit could be incorporated into an MSBOS. The prospective study of 207 cases demonstrated a significantly reduced CTR of 1.71 or 59% blood usage (χ 2 = 12.4, P < 0.001). This equates to a saving of 102 units of blood over the 15 months prospective audit. Protocol adherence was 77%. No patient was adversely affected by the adoption of the MSBOS. We conclude that an MSBOS can be safely introduced into a gynecological oncology department resulting in significant financial savings.
Many parapsychological writers have suggested that psi may be capricious or actively evasive. The evidence for this includes the unpredictable, significant reversal of direction for psi effects, the loss of intended psi effects while unintended secondary or internal effects occur, and the pervasive declines in effect for participants, experimenters, and lines of research. Also, attempts to apply psi typically result in a few very impressive cases among a much larger number of unsuccessful results. The term unsustainable is applicable because psi is sometimes impressive and reliable, but then becomes actively evasive. One of the most testable models for this property is that psi effects occur against a background of supporting and opposing motivation and psi influence due to the extreme polarization of attitudes toward psi in the population. These attitudes may have genetic and gender associated components. Another possible explanation is that the primary function of psi is to induce a sense of mystery and wonder. Other possible functions of psi also need to be investigated. For example, psi could contribute to evolution by briefly influencing random processes to enhance diversity, without specifically guiding evolution or having sustained effects. Some type of higher consciousness may influence or control psi effects.
Eleven hypotheses that have been proposed to explain why psychic phenomena are so weak, unreliable, and/or rare are reviewed. The hypotheses are (1) alleged psi results are actually due to methodological artifacts and oversights, (2) few people have psi, (3) psi depends on precarious psychological conditions, (4) psi occurs frequently without notice, (5) psi is an efficient goal-oriented process subject to shifting goals, (6) fear of psi suppresses psi, (7) evolution has inhibited psi, (8) psi serves ecological rather than personal purposes, (9) the purpose of psi Is personal or spiritual growth, (10) psi effects are influenced by many people in the future, and (11) psi is controlled by nonphysical beings. To integrate available data, a model is presented that proposes 2 distinct groups: those with many anomalous experiences and those with few or none. Genetic factors probably have a significant role in these differences. Those with actual psi experiences are a subgroup of those with many anomalous experiences. Psi practitioners are a smaller subgroup who have an ability to reliably guide psi by intention or motivation. Psi-conducive experimenters are psi practitioners who influence their experimental outcomes in a goal-oriented manner. Further research is needed on the distribution of psi, the possible genetic aspects of psi experiences, the effects of psi experiences, and several characteristics of psi that can be investigated with meta-analyses.
Onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability in uniformly heated microchannels with subcooled water flow were experimentally investigated using 22-cm long tubular test sections, 1.17 mm and 1.45 mm in diameter, with a 16-cm long heated length. important experimental parameter ranges were: 3.44 to 10.34 bar channel exit pressure; 800 to 4500 kg/m(2)s mass flux (1 to 5 m/s inlet velocity): 0 to 4.0 MW/m(2) channel wall heat flux; and 7440-33,000 Peclet number at the onset of flow instability. Demand curves (pressure drop versus mass flow rate curves for fixed wall heat flux and channel exit pressure) were generated for the test sections, and were utilized for the specification of the onset of nucleate boiling and the onset of flow instability points. The obtained onset of nucleate boiling and onset of flow instability data are presented and compared with relevant widely used correlations.
Experimental research in parapsychology may be of little value if psi is goal-oriented and the sources of psi focus on certain types of goals. Experimenters and research participants: may focus on particular outcomes from a hierarchy of goals that on include wanting successful outcomes for: individual trials, individual subjects, individual experiments, lines of research, personal careers, and the field of parapsychology. There is strong evidence that goal-oriented psi applies on the lowest level of this hierarchy of goals, the level of individual trials. The normal statistical assumptions of experimental design and analysis and of communication theory do not apply for outcomes that are below the goal of the psi sources on the hierarchy of goals. This: fact is intrinsic to the concept of god-oriented psi and is clearly demonstrated by majority-vote studies, particularly a study that found approximately equal scoring rates on a direct, blind comparison of psi scoring on single-event and majority-vote trials. Goal-oriented psi can be investigated by finding where the normal statistical assumptions stop applying on the hierarchy of goals. If the goal of the psi source is a successful experimental outcome, or higher on the hierarchy of gods, then the assumptions for statistical research break down. Available evidence from meta-analyses is consistent with this hypothesis, but is not compelling at present because of possible confounding factors. Majority-vote studies also reveal consistent internal patterns that suggest psi achieves goals efficiently. These internal patterns also reflect the nonapplicability of normal statistical assumptions and can be used to investigate goal-oriented psi. The concept of efficient goal-oriented psi operating in a hierarchy of goals suggests that the elusive, capricious nature of psi may sometimes reflect psi efficiently achieving goals relatively high on the hierarchy.
This screening survey of college students found that 59% of the 105 respondents indicated that they had experienced a psychic and/or transcendent/spiritual experience, Those reporting these anomalous experiences tended to have a greater overall sense of meaning in life. Among different factors that can give meaning and purpose to life, expressing artistic creativity and observing spiritual beliefs were positively related to reports of anomalous experiences, whereas obtaining wealth was negatively related. The survey also confirmed that scales for absorption and temporal lobe symptoms correlate positively with each other and with reports of anomalous experiences. The pattern of correlations among well-being measures, anomalous experiences, and other variables was consistent with previous studies with college students but was different from previous results with nonstudent adults. Research on the relationship between religion and mental health has found similar positive relationships for adult populations and mixed results for college students.Very few respondents considered their anomalous experiences detrimental, and 91% of those reporting transcendent experiences and 46% of those reporting psychic experiences considered them valuable.If anomalous experiences generally have beneficial effects, the relationships between these experiences and health measures may become more positive over time. This hypothesis appears consistent with the limited available data and offers great research potential.