The Delphi method has expanded steadily across scientific disciplines since its origins in the 1950s, yet consolidated indicators are still lacking for assessing the quality of its implementation and the reliability of its results. As a consequence, readers and users often struggle to evaluate the credibility of Delphi studies consistently and transparently. This paper seeks to address this challenge. It has a twofold aim: first, to determine whether leading Delphi scholars consider that Delphi reports should include a standardized set of quality indicators, and second, to identify what such indicators might be and order them by relevance and ease of application. To this end, we applied the Delphi method itself to a panel of 28 experts; these included many of the most prolific and highly regarded authors in the field worldwide. The results show a high level of consensus in favor of incorporating quality indicators more systematically into Delphi reporting. The study identifies the most critical indicators as being those that capture the quality of the expert panel, from different perspectives, reflecting the central role of panelists in determining the epistemic strength of Delphi outcomes. A second strongly-scoring group of indicators refers to the quality of the Delphi process itself, for which they evaluate the effectiveness of key processes for transforming individual judgements into a well-grounded collective opinion. This paper also provides an illustrative example of how such indicators can be operationalized and transparently reported in empirical Delphi studies.

We review thirteen Delphi studies on the future of Artificial Intelligence (AI), published between 2014 and 2024. Using the Delphi method, an iterative approach that refines expert insights through multiple rounds, these studies provide foresight into AI’s technological advancements, societal impacts, and policy implications across various sectors. For example, Delphi studies in healthcare foresee significant advancements in AI-driven diagnostics and personalized medicine, while in manufacturing, AI is anticipated to enhance human-robot collaboration and supply chain optimization. AI’s impact on journalism and photography shows promise in automating processes and enriching immersive storytelling, although issues like data privacy and algorithmic bias are raised. This review emphasizes a primary focus on technology trajectories, examining anticipated developments and timelines, while also considering broader strategic foresight aspects. General challenges identified include equitable access, the need for robust data governance, and workforce upskilling to integrate AI responsibly. By synthesizing insights across these studies, we provide a structured overview of both opportunities and limitations in AI development, offering guidance for stakeholders to navigate AI's complexities and capitalize on its potential responsibly. In addition, we propose methodological recommendations, such as standardizing expert selection and diversifying perspectives to improve the quality of future Delphi studies.

This paper explores the contribution of universities to regional development and innovation in locked-in and vulnerable resource-based regions of the Global South. Building on a regional change agency approach, we identify the combination of key factors and context preconditions for universities to successfully fulfil their local engagement role in a particularly challenging environment. To do so, we use a comparative case study of two mining regions in Peru. Our results reveal that the prevalence of a climate of conflict and the lack of an innovation culture in the regional ecosystem are important challenges, while strategic leadership and institutional capacities are central elements for universities to fulfil their role as transformative agents.

Las políticas del Gobierno de España para apoyar a los ecosistemas regionales de innovación han avanzado hacia un modelo más participativo, con una visión orientada al territorio que promueve el uso eficiente de las capacidades de todas las regiones, fomenta la cooperación interregional, mejora la coordinación multinivel y atenúa las persistentes brechas territoriales de innovación. Este nuevo enfoque se ha fraguado durante la última legislatura mediante diversas iniciativas del Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, entre las que destacan la reactivación del Consejo de Política Científica, Tecnológica y de Innovación, la puesta en marcha de los Planes Complementarios de I+D+I y la desconcentración geográfica de las inversiones en grandes infraestructuras científicas.

In this article, we explore the transformative potential of graphene in electrochemical energy technologies over the next two decades. Using a two-round Delphi survey and 28 expert interviews, we construct three distinct evolutionary scenarios: 1) Current state: graphene has made notable technical advancements, but its transformative potential is limited to "nice-to-have" functionalities, 2) Projected state: graphene's technical progress and adoption of "nice-to-have" functions in energy storage devices will continue, suggesting a gradual evolution, 3) Ideal state: graphene's technical barriers are surmounted, and its transformative capacities are unleashed. Our study's findings challenge the prevailing consensus, which suggests that graphene will have a transformative impact in the near term. Instead, we highlight the complex balance between "nice-to-have" functionalities and genuine transformative capacities. Additionally, we underscore the persistent technical, strategic, and systemic challenges that could shape graphene's trajectory. Finally, we provide an in-depth, analytical assessment and practical implications for both the potential of graphene in energy storage devices and broader innovation generalization dynamics.

Previous studies have highlighted that frugal innovation is often based on collaborative networks between many diverse actors, including entrepreneurs, informal businesses, small firms, large multinationals, business associations, NGOs, local governments and international donors. However, the contribution of universities as partners of frugal innovation projects remains largely unexplored. This chapter contributes to filling in this gap through a discussion of how universities foster frugal innovation by: (i) conducting applied research leading to new solutions that inspire frugal innovation initiatives, (ii) supporting young entrepreneurs in the process of creating their start-ups, and (iii) providing the necessary skills to firms’ prospective employees. University-business cooperation for frugal innovation is conceptualized as a critical component of an expanded understanding of the third mission of universities, linked to addressing sustainable development challenges. In addition to the conceptual discussion, new empirical evidence is offered based on a case study of the University of Campinas in Brazil. This case study serves as an illustration of the multidimensional dynamics of frugal innovations arising from university-industry relationships in emerging countries.

Despite the potential of hydrogen as a sustainable energy carrier, existing studies analysing the recent evolution of this technology are scattered, typically focusing on a specific type of hydrogen technology within a single country or region. In this paper, we adopt a broader perspective, providing an overview of the evolution of knowledge generation across different types of hydrogen fuel, and the leading countries in developing new technologies in this field. Using data from the European Patent Office, we map knowledge generation on hydrogen fuel technologies, exploring its geographic distribution and its link with environmental sustainability. While the United States leads the generation of new knowledge, other Asian and European countries show greater dynamism in growth and specialisation. Our study shows that although hydrogen fuel is considered environmentally friendly, most recent technological developments are still related to fossil energy sources. However, a faster growth rate is observed in the knowledge of hydrogen fuel from renewable sources, pointing to a promising path towards sustainability. Moreover, our analysis of the knowledge interconnection between different hydrogen types suggests that those technologies developed for hydrogen based on fossil energy sources have enabled novel applications based on renewable energies.

R&D related foreign direct investments represent a powerful mechanism for cross-border knowledge sharing that can stimulate the process of technological catch-up. However, low-income countries and smaller middle-income countries remain largely excluded from this kind of global flows of knowledge. In this chapter, we discuss the motivations and implications of this type of FDI for low and middle income countries, building on a critical review of the existing literature and analyse the trajectory of R&D FDI during the period 2003-2017 by region and industry. The data is used as a point of departure to discuss potential policies specially tailored for low and middle income countries and their capacity to attract and anchor R&D related FDI for technological catch up. The paper finalizes outlining a future research agenda.

Mainstreaming novel materials is essential to overcome crucial limitations of energy storage devices to address societal challenges and decarbonization efforts. However, mainstreaming requires enabling conditions that are influenced by complexities and tensions. Building on the concept of outcome-oriented scaling, this study explores how prioritization of interdependent drivers and barriers influences mainstreaming graphene in electrochemical energy storage devices. We capture the knowledge and perceptions of an expert panel through a Delphi survey combined with in-depth interviews. We find the ongoing prioritization trajectories to fail in setting interdependent drivers and barriers as a vision to achieve impact at scale, in creating opportunities to accelerate mainstreaming, and in addressing key sustainability pressures and reconfiguration barriers. Also, we find widespread consensus that urgent action is required to bend the prioritization trajectories in the right direction to achieve impact at scale. Mainstreaming graphene is likely to challenge, compete and disrupt incumbent systems instead of enabling a smooth transition.

Countries deploy a variety of policy instruments to promote university-industry knowledge transfer. While these instruments are often discussed in isolation, they are implemented collectively and may reinforce and complement but also weaken or even negatively affect each other. This chapter presents a conceptual framework to map policy instruments for knowledge transfer and assess the interactions between them. Positive interactions occur, for example, when a new grant scheme to support spin-offs is accompanied by the adoption of more flexible regulations regarding the participation of university professors in firms, leading to a stronger combined impact. In contrast, negative interactions are associated with potential contradictions between policy instruments or with the coexistence of various policies targeting simultaneously the same types of actors, which increases complexity, creates confusion and results in higher administrative costs. The conceptual framework developed in this chapter also aims to explain how the choice of policy instruments is influenced by national contexts and broader international trends. This framework is a useful tool for those involved in the design and evaluation of university-industry knowledge transfer policies, while offering a broad point of departure for future research.

Purpose We have been inquiring into the diffusion process of reproductive genetic services (RGS) and the viability of geneticization in human reproduction. Method A 2-round modified-Delphi survey was applied amongst Israeli and Spanish experts to analyze regulatory attitudes and expectations about the future applications of RGS. We argue that an explanation of RGS diffusion based on a ‘technology-push’ impulse should be complemented by a ‘demandpull’ approach, which underscores the importance of regulatory frameworks and demand-inducing policies. The diffusion of RGS is advancing in a ‘spiralshaped’ process where technology acts as a cause and effect simultaneously, modulating social acceptance and redefining the notions of health and responsibility along the way. Results We suggest that there is a ‘grey-zone’ of RGS regulations regarding four procedures: the use of germline genome modification (GGM) for severe monogenic disorders, preimplantation genetic testing (PGT) for detection of chromosomal abnormalities, PGT for multifactorial diseases, and PGT with whole-exome screening. Conclusions Although far from the geneticization of human reproduction, our findings suggest that, since techno-scientific imaginaries tend to shape regulations and thus favor the diffusion of RGS, policymakers should pay attention to those procedures by focusing on good practices and equity while providing sound information on potential risks and expected success rates. A broad and inclusive societal debate is critical for overcoming the difficulty of drawing a clear line between medical and non-medical uses of genetic selection and engineering while searching for the right balance between allowing reproductive autonomy and protecting the public interest.

Purpose This study aims to explore the institutional complexities associated with the design and implementation of a natural resource fund for innovation. Design/methodology/approach This study examines the case of Chile's Innovation Fund for Competitiveness by means of a historical approach building on interviews with key informants. Findings The proper functioning of a natural resource fund for innovation requires efficient institutional and operational structures, as well as strong coordination with innovation system actors. In particular, the case of Chile highlights the challenges inherent in adopting a regional approach when implementing this type of strategy, due to the institutional voids that hamper the role of regional governments in emerging countries. Originality/value Natural resource funds for innovation constitute a strategic mechanism for developing the innovative capabilities necessary to enhance the competitiveness of resource-rich emerging countries. This is one of the first studies addressing the institutional challenges involved in setting up this kind of fund in practice, focusing on one of the most relevant and longstanding examples from Latin America.

We evaluate the effect of a pan-European innovation funding program on firm growth and innovative output. Using a difference-in-differences estimation on a sample of matched firms, we find that subsidized firms are able to invest more in tangible and intangible assets, achieve higher growth of turnover and employment, and file more patent applications. We then analyze the dynamic treatment effect and find that the effects of subsidization tend to get stronger over time. Moreover, our findings indicate that the effect of subsidization is highly heterogeneous across sectors with different R&D or knowledge intensity and level of competition. Finally, we explore some economic channels to explain how subsidies generate strong effects on firm performance. We show that subsidized firms are able to generate more internal financing and attract more long-term borrowing after receiving the subsidy, yet we find no evidence that subsidized firms are able to attract more external equity financing than similar unsubsidized firms.

We consider how the COVID-19 pandemic has challenged European small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the manufacturing sector, and draw suggests policy implications. The sudden onslaught of the pandemic has acted as an economic shock, and we consider how it is likely to affect different types of manufacturing SMEs. We distinguish between immediate effects, a result of the almost-simultaneous lockdowns across Europe and its major trading partners, and longer-term implications for both SMEs and the global value chains where they are inserted. In the shorter run, most SMEs have faced logistical challenges in addition to demand disruptions, although the severity has differed across firms and industries. We argue that in the longer-term, there will be different challenges and opportunities depending on the type of SME. Policy interventions will also need to be sensitive to the different types of SMEs, rather than adopting a one-size-fits-all approach. The policy mix will need to shift from its initial focus on the survival of European SMEs in the short term, towards a more structural and longer-term approach based on promoting their renewal and growth through innovation, internationalization and networking.

PurposeFrugal innovation has gained prominence based on its potential contribution to sustainable development and the new opportunities that it offers to low-income customers. This paper aims to analyse the strategic knowledge transfer practices implemented by an entrepreneurial university for fostering frugal innovations within an emerging economy.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopted a case study methodological approach. The selected case was the University of Campinas (Unicamp), one of the leading universities in Brazil in terms of research quality and technology transfer. The study built upon 14 interviews with key informants and secondary sources of data (official and public documents).FindingsThe findings highlight the multidimensional dynamics of frugal innovations arising from university–industry relationships. Key dimensions considered include the internal capabilities of universities to foster frugal innovations and connect them to markets, the surrounding innovation ecosystems in which the university is embedded and the overarching institutional framework.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis of strategic management practices for frugal innovation requires an evolutionary perspective, but the findings lacked sufficient longitudinal information for a formal evaluation. Also, as our empirical analysis is based on an in-depth case study of one university, further validation in other contexts would be necessary.Practical implicationsThis study offers new insights regarding the effectiveness of university-business collaboration partnerships for developing frugal innovations in emerging economies. Policymakers should promote societal programs enhancing the active participation of all agents involved in the entrepreneurial and innovation ecosystem. University managers should understand the challenges and the opportunities behind the adoption of an inclusive and societal orientation.Social implicationsBy adopting frugal innovation practices, universities can enhance their contribution of meeting the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals.Originality/valueThe literature on frugal innovation has emphasized the importance of networking between different types of firms, NGOs and governments, but the role of universities in frugal innovation remains mostly unexplored. This study addresses this gap by exploring how entrepreneurial universities participate in frugal innovations to meet societal challenges.

Since the pioneering work of David J. Teece (“Profiting from technological innovation: Implications for integration, collaboration, licensing and public policy”, Research Policy 15, 1986), the concept of “appropriability regime” – defined as the level of threat stemming from potential imitators in the firm’s environment– has been useful in describing specific sectoral patterns at the aggregate level. However, there have been few attempts to formally prove the impact of different regimes on knowledge management strategies at the firm-level. Using firm-level longitudinal data from software and hardware sectors in Spain, we show that differences in appropriability regimes condition the profitability of open innovation strategies, and also induce specific patterns in firms’ knowledge management strategies. More specifically, we show that the appearance of diminishing returns from an open innovation strategy is more accelerated in firms immersed in weaker regimes (i.e. firms facing more threats from potential imitators). We also show that this is due to the fact that such firms must resort to more complex (and costly) practices that go far beyond the legal protection of intellectual property, internalizing other management practices related to productive capacity and the commercialization of innovations.

In the last few decades, the number of academic articles focused on digital business has grown exponentially. The aim of this study is to present the evolution of academic research in digital business between 1990 and 2015. The analysis concentrates on identifying the most productive and influential journals in this field of research, as well as the leading authors. The results show a strong increase in digital business research during that period due to the development of an important number of specialized information systems journals, but also with publications in several disciplines of the management field. The latter reflects the multidisciplinary nature of this field of research, including not only studies with a focus on management information systems, but also on strategy, marketing, operations and more.

During the past two decades, a growing number of universities, mainly from developed countries, have established branch campuses in developing countries. From the developing country perspective, attracting foreign universities can help mitigate financial constraints and capacity shortages that impair the state's ability to provide greater access to higher education, while also improving teaching and research in general. However, foreign universities may also be detrimental if they crowd out their domestic counterparts. We explore different scenarios and policy options for developing countries aiming to attract foreign universities, building upon a review of four case studies from Chile, China, Kazakhstan, and Malaysia. Our analysis illustrates how host countries can provide incentives to align incoming foreign universities to complement and strengthen the areas of weakness in their higher education systems. We also reflect on how policy-makers can deal with the challenges associated with the dual embeddedness of international branch campuses.