We investigate patterns of phylogenetic selectivity of extinction in early aquatic vertebrates from the Silurian to the Carboniferous, an interval punctuated by one of the "Big Five" mass extinctions and marked by many critical anatomical (e.g., jaws, limbs) and ecological (e.g., macrophagy, terrestrialization) vertebrate evolutionary innovations. Using a new >1,300 taxon, formally inferred supertree, we show that phylogenetic extinction clustering in early vertebrates varied through time and between major ecomorphological divisions of the tree. At the end of the Silurian and into the Early Devonian, jawless fishes became marginalized components of vertebrate faunas and showed more strongly clustered extinction than jawed fishes, which became ecologically dominant during this interval. Clustered extinction (contemporaneous extinction of close relatives) is typical of most stages of the Devonian, particularly during the Late Devonian extinctions. By contrast, the subsequent early Carboniferous interval of putative recovery is characterized by overdispersed extinction (contemporaneous extinction of distant relatives), consistent with widespread persistence of phylogenetically distinct lineages. This work shows how varying patterns of extinction selectivity pruned the vertebrate tree at the time when the first-order patterns of diversity apparent in modern aquatic vertebrate faunas were first established.

ABSTRACT Substantial progress has been made to map biodiversity and its drivers across the planet at multiple scales, yet studies that quantify the evolutionary processes that underpin this biodiversity, and test their drivers at multiple scales, are comparatively rare. Studying most fish species, we quantify rates of body size evolution to test the role of fundamental salinity habitats in shaping rates of evolution at multiple scales. We also determine how four additional factors shape evolutionary rates. In up to 1710 comparisons studying over 27,000 ray-finned fish species, we compare rates of body size evolution between five salinity habits using 12 metrics. The comparisons span a molecular tree, supertrees, and ten scales of observation to test for robust patterns and reveal how patterns change with scale. Then, three approaches assess the role of three non-salinity factors on rates, and an alternative habitat scheme tests if lakes influence evolutionary rates. Rates of size evolution rarely differ consistently between salinity habitats; rate patterns are highly clade- and scale-dependent. One exception is freshwater-brackish fishes, which possess among the highest size rates of any salinity, and show higher rates than euryhaline fishes in most groupings studied at most scales, and verses marine, freshwater, and marine-brackish habitats at specific scales. Additionally, species richness had the greatest potential to predict phenotypic rates, followed by branch duration and absolute values of body size. Lacustrine environments were consistently associated with high rates of size evolution. We reveal the rate patterns that underpin global body size diversity for fishes, identifying factors that play a limited role in shaping rates of size evolution, such as salinity, and those such as species richness, age, and lake environments that consistently shape evolutionary rates across half of vertebrate diversity.

Interspecific variation in body size is one of the most popular topics in comparative studies. Despite recent advances, little is known about the patterns and processes behind the evolution of body size in insects. Here, we used a robust data set comprising all geometrid moth species occurring in Northern Europe to examine the evolutionary associations involving body size and several life-history traits under an explicitly phylogenetic framework. We provided new insights into the interactive effects of life-history traits on body size and evidence of correlated evolution. We further established the sequence of trait evolution linking body size with the life-history traits correlated with it. We found that most (but not all) of the studied life-history traits, to some extent, influenced interspecific variation in body size, but interactive effects were uncommon. Both bi- and multivariate phylogenetic analyses indicated that larger species tend to be nocturnal flyers, overwinter in the larval stage, feed on the foliage of trees rather than herbs, and have a generalist feeding behaviour. We found evidence of correlated evolution involving body size with overwintering stage, host-plant growth form, and dietary specialization. The examination of evolutionary transitions within the correlated evolution models signalled that overwintering as larvae commonly preceded the evolution of large sizes, as did feeding on tree foliage and the generalist feeding behaviour. By showing that both body size and all life-history traits correlated with it evolve at very slow rates, we caution against uncritical attempts to propose causal explanations for respective associations based on contemporary ecological settings.

Environmental factors can cause cancer in both wild animals and humans. In ecological settings, genetic variation and natural selection can sometimes produce resilience to the negative impacts of environmental change. An increase in oncogenic substances in natural habitats has therefore, unintentionally, created opportunities for using polluted habitats to study cancer defence mechanisms. The Baltic and North Sea are among the most contaminated marine areas, with a long history of pollution. Two flatfish species (flounder, Platichthys flesus and dab, Limanda limanda) are used as ecotoxicological indicator species due to pollution-induced liver cancer. Cancer is more prevalent in dab, suggesting species-specific differences in vulnerability and/or defence mechanisms. We conducted gene expression analyses for 30 flatfishes. We characterize between- and within-species patterns in potential cancer-related mechanisms. By comparing cancerous and healthy fishes, and non-cancerous fishes from clean and polluted sites, we suggest also genes and related physiological mechanisms that could contribute to a higher resistance to pollution-induced cancer in flounders. We discovered changes in transcriptome related to elevated pollutant metabolism, alongside greater tumour suppression mechanisms in the liver tissue of flounders compared to dabs. This suggests either hormetic upregulation of tumour suppression or a stronger natural selection pressure for higher cancer resistance for flounders in polluted environment. Based on gene expression patterns seen in cancerous and healthy fish, for liver cancer to develop in flounders, genetic defence mechanisms need to be suppressed, while in dabs, analogous process is weak or absent. We conclude that wild species could offer novel insights and ideas for understanding the nature and evolution of natural cancer defence mechanisms.

East coast cyclones (ECCs) provide an essential reprieve from dry periods across eastern Australia. They also deliver flood-producing rains with significant economic, social and environmental impacts. Assessing and comparing the influence of different types of cyclones is hindered by an incomplete understanding of ECC typology, given their widely variable spatial and temporal characteristics. This study employs a track-clustering method (probabilistic, curve-aligned regression model) to identify key cyclonic pathways for ECCs from 1950 to 2019. Six spatially independent clusters were successfully distinguished and further sub-classified (coastal, continental and tropical) based on their genesis location. The seasonality and long-term variability, intensity (maximum Laplacian value +/- 2 days) and event-based rainfall were then evaluated for each cluster to quantify the impact of these lows on Australia. The highest quantity of land-based rainfall per event is associated with the tropical cluster (Cluster 6), whereas widespread rainfall was also found to occur in the two continental clusters (clusters 4 and 5). Cyclone tracks orientated close to the coast (clusters 1, 2 and 3) were determined to be the least impactful in terms of rainfall and intensity, despite being the most common cyclone type. In terms of interannual variability, sea surface temperature anomalies suggest an increased cyclone frequency for clusters 1 (austral winter) and 4 (austral spring) during a central Pacific El Nino. Furthermore, cyclone incidence during IOD-negative conditions was more pronounced in winter for clusters 1, 2, 3- and clusters 4 and 5 in spring. All cyclones also predominantly occurred in SAM-positive conditions. However, winter ECCs for clusters 1 and 3 had a higher frequency in SAM-negative. This new typology of ECCs via spatial clustering provides crucial insights into the systems that produce extreme rainfall across eastern Australia and should be used to inform future hazard management of cyclone events.

Co-design, co-development, and co-delivery (Co-3D for short) are activities within the co-production research pathway that are increasingly being used in climate change science and adaptation projects. However, the research community is still coming to understand how best to incorporate Co-3D in practice, as each project has a specific context around stakeholder relationships, governance arrangements, and capacity to actively participate. This paper outlines five case studies from Australia as examples of different projects engaging with Co-3D in different ways in order to explore how Co-3D is being used and might be improved. Crucially, we include the perceptions and experiences of researchers, funders and end users, as well as our own critical reflections. Each of the projects self-describes as using ‘co-production’, but the extent and format varies widely with different combinations of co-design, co-development and/or co-delivery used in each. Our findings show that without clear understanding of Co-3D within the co-production process, aspects of Co-3D may not be properly considered in planning or implementation. Co-3D activities are not completely distinct, rather they form a continuum of engagement and integration across phases of project work. Thus, the specific definitions and delineations between these terms may not be required for them to be applied. However, practical and explicit negotiation of what ‘co-production’ means in different project contexts is needed so that all parties understand their roles and responsibilities. Further, more evaluations of outcomes and stakeholder experiences are required. We provide seven principles of Co-3D that should be considered when embarking on co-production projects.

The Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program (NESP) supports decision-makers by providing them with the best available information, based on world-class science. This helps Australian decision-makers to better understand, manage and conserve Australia’s environment. The Climate Systems Hub, one of four national environmental science research hubs, provides research to advance the understanding of Australia’s climate, its extremes and associated drivers, that will directly inform climate adaptation solutions for Australia. Wide engagement with stakeholders has provided vital insight on how users want climate information delivered to enable widest possible uptake and increased impact. The climate information needs of users varies greatly with their level of technical expertise and intended applications. The most universally identified requirement is for a single location guiding users to the most appropriate, and sector-specific information, as well as to data at the appropriate level for their expertise and application. Calls for guidance, training, and support on how best to use information also emerged as pressing needs.  To meet these user needs, the Climate Systems Hub is developing a gateway to deliver integrated training, guidance, and regional projection summaries. The gateway should help overcome barriers to finding and applying climate information in decision-making using the best available science and following good practice. This presentation will detail the key user needs identified through engagement activities, the recommendations drawn from these needs, a gap analysis, and review of existing climate data portals. We will also provide progress in co-designing integrated, tailored climate information and its delivery that fills a gap in the existing information landscape and meets the specific needs of NESP stakeholders.

The six species of mountain frogs (Philoria: Limnodynastidae: Anura) are endemic to south-eastern Australia. Five species occur in headwater systems in mountainous north-eastern New South Wales (NSW) and south-eastern Queensland (Qld), centred on the Gondwana Rainforests of Australia World Heritage Area. A previous molecular genetic analysis identified divergent genetic lineages in the central and western McPherson Ranges region of Qld and NSW, but sampling was inadequate to test the species status of these lineages. With more comprehensive geographic sampling and examination of the nuclear genome using SNP analysis, we show that an undescribed species, P. knowlesi sp. nov., occurs in the central and western McPherson Ranges (Levers Plateau and Mount Barney complex). The new species is not phylogenetically closely related to P. loveridgei in the nuclear data but is related to one of two divergent lineages within P. loveridgei in the mtDNA data. We postulate that the discordance between the nuclear and mtDNA outcomes is due to ancient introgression of the mtDNA genome from P. loveridgei into the new species. Male advertisement calls and multivariate morphological analyses do not reliably distinguish P. knowlesi sp. nov. from any of the Philoria species in northeast NSW and southeast Qld. The genetic comparisons also enable us to define further the distributions of P. loveridgei and P. kundagungan. Samples from the Lamington Plateau, Springbrook Plateau, Wollumbin (Mt Warning National Park), and the Nightcap Range, are all P. loveridgei, and its distribution is now defined as the eastern McPherson Ranges and Tweed caldera. Philoria kundagungan is distributed from the Mistake Mountains in south-eastern Qld to the Tooloom Scrub on the Koreelah Range, southwest of Woodenbong, in NSW, with two subpopulations identified by SNP analysis. We therefore assessed the IUCN threat category of P. loveridgei and P. kundagungan and undertook new assessments for each of its two subpopulations and for the new taxon P. knowlesi sp. nov., using IUCN Red List criteria. Philoria loveridgei, P. kundagungan (entire range and northern subpopulation separately) and P. knowlesi sp. nov. each meet criteria for "Endangered" (EN B2(a)(b)[i, iii]). The southern subpopulation of P. kundagungan, in the Koreelah Range, meets criteria for "Critically Endangered" (CE B2(a)(b)[i, iii]). These taxa are all highly threatened due to the small number of known locations, the restricted nature of their breeding habitat, and direct and indirect threats from climate change, and the potential impact of the amphibian disease chytridiomycosis. Feral pigs are an emerging threat, with significant impacts now observed in Philoria breeding habitat in the Mistake Mountains.

Annual rainfall and the seasonality of rainfall during a year are important drivers of agricultural productivity and profitability in Australian agriculture. Historic trend detection can give insights into significant and prolonged changes that might continue in the future and are of relevance to agriculture. Here we complement the analysis of historic data with climate projections from global climate models. We use gridded and station rainfall data for three study areas in the Australian midlatitudes, between 24°S and 35°S. Total summer and winter rainfall, annual total rainfall and annual rainfall extreme indices are calculated for the period 1907 to 2018. Historic trends are analysed with statistical significance tests of linear trends and rainfall deciles. Future trends are analysed for annual, summer and winter rainfall for three time periods, 2020–2039, 2040–2059 and 2060–79, as the ensemble of 25–37 global climate models. Summer rainfall in the Western Australia wheat belt increased by 0.18–0.21 mm per year. Winter rainfall decreased by 0.42–0.43 mm per year. Parts of northern New South Wales (NSW) experienced an exceptionally dry decade, 2011–2020 with summer rainfall 50–200 mm below the long-term average. Future rainfall projections for the wheat belt show a strong declining trend, irrespective of the climate scenario, while in the other two regions, increases and decreases are possible. We confirm previous findings of declines in winter rainfall in the Western Australia wheat Belt but do not detect any such changes in Eastern Australia. Some of the observed long periods of dry summers in northern NSW are rather unprecedented. Future studies should repeat the trend analysis for Eastern Australia as the data becomes available. Apart from climate indices, agrometeorological indices for specific agricultural commodities should be developed and used in trend analysis.

Identifying environmental predictors of phenotype is fundamentally important to many ecological questions, from revealing broadscale ecological processes to predicting extinction risk. However, establishing robust environment-phenotype relationships is challenging, as powerful case studies require diverse clades which repeatedly undergo environmental transitions at multiple taxonomic scales. Actinopterygian fishes, with 32,000+ species, fulfil these criteria for the fundamental habitat divisions in water. With four datasets of body size (ranging 10,905-27,226 species), I reveal highly consistent size-by-habitat-use patterns across nine scales of observation. Taxa in marine, marine-brackish, euryhaline and freshwater-brackish habitats possess larger mean sizes than freshwater relatives, and the largest mean sizes consistently emerge within marine-brackish and euryhaline taxa. These findings align with the predictions of seven mechanisms thought to drive larger size by promoting additional trophic levels. However, mismatches between size and trophic-level patterns highlight a role for additional mechanisms, and support for viable candidates is examined in 3439 comparisons.

Understanding how and why some groups have become more species-rich than others, and how past biogeography may have shaped their current distribution, are questions that evolutionary biologists have long attempted to answer. We investigated diversification patterns and historical biogeography of a hyperdiverse lineage of Lepidoptera, the geometrid moths, by studying its most species-rich tribe Boarmiini, which comprises ca. 200 genera and ca. known 3000 species. We inferred the evolutionary relationships of Boarmiini based on a dataset of 346 taxa, with up to eight genetic markers under a maximum likelihood approach. The monophyly of Boarmiini is strongly supported. However, the phylogenetic position of many taxa does not agree with current taxonomy, although the monophyly of most major genera within the tribe is supported after minor adjustments. Three genera are synonymized, one new combination is proposed, and four species are placed in incertae sedis within Boarmiini. Our results support the idea of a rapid initial diversification of Boarmiini, which also implies that no major taxonomic subdivisions of the group can currently be proposed. A time-calibrated tree and biogeographical analyses suggest that boarmiines appeared in Laurasia ca. 52 Mya, followed by dispersal events throughout the Australasian, African and Neotropical regions. Most of the transcontinental dispersal events occurred in the Eocene, a period of intense geological activity and rapid climate change. Diversification analyses showed a relatively constant diversification rate for all Boarmiini, except in one clade containing the species-rich genus Cleora. The present work represents a substantial contribution towards understanding the evolutionary origin of Boarmiini moths. Our results, inevitably biased by taxon sampling, highlight the difficulties with working on species-rich groups that have not received much attention outside of Europe. Specifically, poor knowledge of the natural history of geometrids (particularly in tropical clades) limits our ability to identify key innovations underlying the diversification of boarmiines.

For Australia, there are only a few east coast low (ECL) databases that have been generated to explore aspects of ECL development, movement and subsequent impacts. Improved databases that include ECL track data will enhance future forecasting and damage mitigation on the east coast of Australia. This paper compares ECL track characteristics of a new low-pressure dataset, NCEP1 (1950–2019), to the recently updated MATCHES (Maps and Tables of Climate Hazards of the Eastern Seaboard) database (1950–2019) in order to identify similarities and differences of track characteristics that may be important for future ECL research. To achieve this, defining parameters such as intensity – used to make the MATCHES database – were applied to NCEP1 to ensure a direct comparison of historical ECL events. Although both databases display similar patterns in ECL seasonality and track characteristics, we show that the NCEP1 database identifies additional events not captured in MATCHES and provides improved track morphology of certain well-known historical events (such as the 2007 Pasha Bulker storm and the 1998 Sydney to Hobart Yacht Race). Importantly, this research builds upon Australian ECL research and notes an improvement on the MATCHES database, with NCEP1 offering an almost two-fold outperformance in storm tracking (track length and duration) and greater spatial coverage outside the traditional ECL box.

Australia is the World’s driest inhabited continent. It is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change: surrounded by sensitive marine ecosystems including the Great Barrier Reef, vulnerable to tropical cyclones and changing monsoonal patterns in the north, experiencing declining rainfall and runoff in the heavily populated southern and eastern parts of the country, and subject to increasingly severe bushfires. The ever-present flood, drought and bushfire cycles have historically motivated government investment in programs that aim to understand the nation’s climate and its drivers, and to inform adaptation planning and disaster risk management.Accordingly, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) have been at the forefront of understanding Australia’s past and future climate for four decades.The most recent national climate projections were published in 2015. These focussed on the needs of the natural resource management sector and represented a first step towards delivery of climate change services tailored to the sector’s needs. Products included decision support tools and provision of training for capacity building. A key component of the research program was stakeholder engagement from inception. The resultant Climate Change in Australia website (www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au) and Help Desk represented the most ambitious steps to date towards a comprehensive Australian climate change service, and were a first attempt at user-driven information delivery.Now five years on, users' needs have evolved substantially. Key drivers of this include: (1) the Paris Agreement (2015) to limit global temperature rise to below 2.0°C (ideally below 1.5°C) above pre-industrial levels, (2) implications of the Taskforce for Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD, 2017), and (3) IPCC Special Reports. This has occurred on top of a trend towards increasingly sophisticated uses of climate projections datasets for decision-making. Existing products do not meet all user needs. There is a pronounced ‘pull’ from users of climate projections for sector-specific "decision-relevant" information for risk-management decisions. The cross-jurisdictional impacts of climate change have also resulted in a need for authoritative, standardized and quality-assured climate scenarios for the entire country, to facilitate whole of sector, cross-agency and multi-sector responses and adaptation. As Lourenco et al (2016) said, climate change services for Australia need to shift from “science-driven and user informed services to user-driven and science informed services.”There is increased emphasis on sector-specific tools that aim to provide decision-relevant information and underpinning datasets. An ongoing challenge is the need to enable the uptake of climate information in decision-making. This necessitates a skill uplift on the user side. To date, efforts have focused on the water, finance, energy, and indigenous land management sectors. Increasingly, the focus within Australia is on working together across jurisdictional boundaries to provide nationally consistent information; with enhanced transparency drawing upon climate science resources within universities and all levels of government. Strong partnerships with the private sector are also needed in order to deliver to burgeoning demand. Success will require genuine co-design, co-production and co-evaluation of sector-specific products with a suite of support services appropriate to the needs of diverse users.

Environmental decision-makers and practitioners need and deserve high-quality environmental evidence for effective decision-making. We collate and share a suite of best practices for applied environmental researchers to support their capacity to inform such decision-making processes. This raises a number of important questions: What does "relevant" and informative evidence look like? How do we know when evidence has been applied? We assembled an experienced team of knowledge generators and users in Canada to identify insights that have emerged from their work and that could serve as guideposts for others who seek to apply environmental research to policy challenges. By reflecting on successes and failures, we define "success" in applied environmental science as respectfully conducted, partner-relevant research that is accessible, understandable, and shared and that can create opportunities for change (e.g., in policy, behaviour, management). Next, we generated a list of best practices for delivering "successful" applied environmental research. Our guidance emphasizes the importance of engaging early and often, in a respectful manner, with partners, generating high-quality, relevant research (which requires flexibility), having a plan for communicating and sharing outputs, and being transparent about uncertainties and limitations. Other important considerations include acknowledging partners for involvement and training early career researchers in applied partnership research. Finally, we generated a list of specific, measurable indicators for evaluating success, including quality and quantity of scientific outputs, the relationship with the partner(s), relevance and connectedness of the research, accessibility and availability of outputs to users, provision of outputs that are digestible and usable by different audiences, training and capacity building, and ultimate outcomes (e.g., including social, environmental, and economic outcomes, as well as partner satisfaction). We encourage those embarking on applied environmental research to consider embracing the strategies, to continuously reflect on progress toward shared research goals, and to be flexible. Doing so will increase the likelihood of delivering research that is "successful" and in doing so contribute to overcoming and addressing environmental issues and problems.

Comprising Holostei and Teleostei, the ~32,000 species of neopterygian fishes are anatomically disparate and represent the dominant group of aquatic vertebrates today. However, the pattern by which teleosts rose to represent almost all of this diversity, while their holostean sister-group dwindled to eight extant species and two broad morphologies, is poorly constrained. A geometric morphometric approach was taken to generate a morphospace from more than 400 fossil taxa, representing almost all articulated neopterygian taxa known from the first 150 million years—roughly 60%—of their history (Triassic‒Early Cretaceous). Patterns of morphospace occupancy and disparity are examined to: (1) assess evidence for a phenotypically “dominant” holostean phase; (2) evaluate whether expansions in teleost phenotypic variety are predominantly abrupt or gradual, including assessment of whether early apomorphy-defined teleosts are as morphologically conservative as typically assumed; and (3) compare diversification in crown and stem teleosts. The systematic affinities of dapediiforms and pycnodontiforms, two extinct neopterygian clades of uncertain phylogenetic placement, significantly impact patterns of morphological diversification. For instance, alternative placements dictate whether or not holosteans possessed statistically higher disparity than teleosts in the Late Triassic and Jurassic. Despite this ambiguity, all scenarios agree that holosteans do not exhibit a decline in disparity during the Early Triassic‒Early Cretaceous interval, but instead maintain their Toarcian‒Callovian variety until the end of the Early Cretaceous without substantial further expansions. After a conservative Induan‒Carnian phase, teleosts colonize (and persistently occupy) novel regions of morphospace in a predominantly gradual manner until the Hauterivian, after which expansions are rare. Furthermore, apomorphy-defined teleosts possess greater phenotypic variety than typically assumed. Comparison of crown and stem teleost partial disparity indicates that, despite a statistically significant increase in crown teleost disparity between the Late Jurassic and earliest Cretaceous, stem teleosts remained important long-term contributors to overall teleost disparity during this time.

1. Marine managers are looking increasingly to marine protected areas ( MPAs) to deliver benefits to fisheries; however, many of these MPAs have been established in order to address specific conservation objectives unrelated to fisheries management. 2. This paper describes a small no- take zone ( NTZ) set up in the Clyde, Scotland, for conservation purposes, and examines its effect on the abundance of two commercially fished scallops, Pecten maximus and Aequipecten opercularis, 5 years after closure. 3. Scallop fishing immediately outside the NTZ has continued since this closure, although at lower intensities, with overall landings in the Clyde and landings per unit area rising until 2013, suggesting a slight increase in regional abundance. 4. There was neither a significant increase in adult scallop abundance within the NTZ nor evidence of the dispersal of adults into surrounding areas. 5. Transient dynamics and the small size of the NTZ may have played a role in the lack of demonstrable scallop recovery. The practice of ` selling' small conservation MPAs in terms of meeting wider fisheries objectives is discussed in light of this result.

Australia has committed to play its part in keeping global temperature rise below 1.5 Kelvin but has one of the world’s worst-performing building stocks for thermal performance. This paper reports on a study of cost-effective retrofits of typical Australian houses to rapidly reduce carbon emissions from heating and cooling, including the effects of climate change on a warm temperate climate in 2050. We used the AccuRate Home Energy Rating System (HERS) simulation program to model actual houses modelled in Adelaide and a typical split-system air conditioner appliance. We also show a retrofit method to be a resilient zero-carbon house. The most cost-effective single retrofits were partial conditioning of a house, ceiling and roof insulation, gap sealing to an optimum level, and external wall cavity insulation. Then they were those that suited the house construction such as underfloor insulation and internal brick walls where there was a concrete floor. Novel successful retrofits include cavity wall insulation and roof ‘cool paint’, while ineffective retrofits included window awnings, shade cloths, a plastic temporary double glazing, and vegetation for wing walls. Rapid decarbonisation retrofit combinations were found to suit various occupant budgets and payback periods, by combining the most cost-effective retrofits per house type. The results are based on the Australian Nationwide House Energy Rating Scheme (NatHERS) protocols regarding heating and cooling loads for room types and occupancy loadings, and these may need to be adjusted in practice.

The affinity of Tullimonstrum gregarium, a pincer-mouthed, soft bodied bilaterian, has been subject to debate since its recovery from Carboniferous coal deposits at Mazon Creek, Illinois. After decades of impasse focused on mollusc, arthropod and annelid attributes, two recent, yet conflicting, high-profile studies concluded that the ‘Tully Monster’ is a vertebrate, a relative of lampreys or jawed fishes. Here, we find that structures described as supporting vertebrate – particularly crown vertebrate – affinity face significant challenges from biological, functional and taphonomic perspectives. Problems with comparator choice, interpretation of taphonomic processes at Mazon Creek, and estimation of convergence within the bilaterian tree may have misled these recent studies, leading to conclusions which do not accommodate current understanding of the vertebrate record. For example, the absence of taphonomically-expected synapomorphies in Tullimonstrum (e.g. otic capsules, body pigment) calls into question vertebrate identity and implies that convergence or deeper origins are responsible for vertebrate-like traits. Further, phylogenetic placement within vertebrates is only made possible by the constraints of a chordate-only dataset with limited outgroups and use of selective characters. Long-discussed alternative placements among molluscs (e.g. heteropod gastropods), arthropods (e.g. anomalocarids), or elsewhere within non-vertebrate deuterostomes are more congruent. Indeed, many of these lineages independently evolved vertebrate-like traits, including complex eyes and ‘teeth’. Thus, given the totality of evidence, Tullimonstrum should be excluded from the vertebrate crown. Potential assignments for aberrant bilaterians, common throughout the