A basic question concerning the monarch butterflies’ fall migration is which monarchs succeed in reaching overwintering sites in Mexico, which fail—and why. We document the timing and pace of the fall migration, ask whether the sun’s position in the sky is associated with the pace of the migration, and whether timing affects success in completing the migration. Using data from the Monarch Watch tagging program, we explore whether the fall monarch migration is associated with the daily maximum vertical angle of the sun above the horizon (Sun Angle at Solar Noon, SASN) or whether other processes are more likely to explain the pace of the migration. From 1998 to 2015, more than 1.38 million monarchs were tagged and 13,824 (1%) were recovered in Mexico. The pace of migration was relatively slow early in the migration but increased in late September and declined again later in October as the migrating monarchs approached lower latitudes. This slow-fast-slow pacing in the fall migration is consistent with monarchs reaching latitudes with the same SASN, day after day, as they move south to their overwintering sites. The observed pacing pattern and overall movement rates are also consistent with monarchs migrating at a pace determined by interactions among SASN, temperature, and daylength. The results suggest monarchs successfully reaching the Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve (MBBR) migrate within a “migration window” with an SASN of about 57° at the leading edge of the migration and 46° at the trailing edge. Ninety percent of the tags recovered in Mexico were from monarchs tagged within this window. Migrants reaching locations along the migration route with SASN outside this migration window may be considered early or late migrants. We noted several years with low overwintering abundance of monarchs, 2004 and 2011–2014, with high percentages of late migrants. This observation suggests a possible effect of migration timing on population size. The migration window defined by SASN can serve as a framework against which to establish the influence of environmental factors on the size, geographic distribution, and timing of past and future fall migrations.

Migratory species provide important benefits to society, but their cross-border conservation poses serious challenges. By quantifying the economic value of ecosystem services (ESs) provided across a species’ range and ecological data on a species’ habitat dependence, we estimate spatial subsidies—how different regions support ESs provided by a species across its range. We illustrate this method for migratory northern pintail ducks in North America. Pintails support over $101 million USD annually in recreational hunting and viewing and subsistence hunting in the U.S. and Canada. Pintail breeding regions provide nearly $30 million in subsidies to wintering regions, with the “Prairie Pothole” region supplying over $24 million in annual benefits to other regions. This information can be used to inform conservation funding allocation among migratory regions and nations on which the pintail depends. We thus illustrate a transferrable method to quantify migratory species-derived ESs and provide information to aid in their transboundary conservation.

First posted July 23, 2019 For additional information, contact: Director, Eastern Energy Resources Science CenterU.S. Geological SurveyMail Stop 95612201 Sunrise Valley DriveReston, VA 20192Energy Resources ProgramWind Energy This scientific investigations report describes an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that used research, monitoring data, and modeling to develop a methodology to assess both the current and future population-level consequences of wind energy development on species of birds and bats that are present in the United States during any part of their life cycle. The methodology is currently applicable to birds and bats, focuses primarily on the effects of collisions with turbines, and can be applied to any species that breeds in, migrates through, or otherwise uses any part of the United States. The methodology assesses species at the national and regional scales and identifies those species potentially in need of more detailed study, as well as those species that are likely at low risk from wind energy development. This approach is fundamentally different from existing methods focusing on impacts at individual facilities.This report supersedes USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5066 by the same authors, which described a preliminary version of the methodology. Following reviews of the preliminary methodology by a panel of external experts, public comments, and additional internal review, the methodology was revised and finalized.The three components of the refined methodology described in this new report rely on publicly available fatality information, population estimates, species range maps, turbine location data, biological characteristics of species, and population models. First, three metrics are combined to determine direct and indirect relative effects from wind energy facilities to generate a list of species scores. Second, a generic population model estimates the expected change in population trend caused by the additive mortality from collisions with wind turbines. Third, the methodology combines an estimate of observed fatalities and an estimate of potential biological removal to assess the possibility of a decrease in population size. The latter two components are quantitative. In a test case, the methodology was used to analyze data for six bird species and three bat species.Components of the methodology are based on simplifying assumptions and require information that, for many species, may be sparse or unreliable or may require further study. These assumptions should be carefully considered when using outputs from the methodology. Increases in the quality of data for fatalities from collisions with wind turbines, species distributions, abundance, and demography will likely improve results for uses of the methodology.The methodology’s design identifies and prioritizes a subset of the bird and bat species that may experience population-level impacts from collisions with wind turbines, both currently and from future wind energy development in the United States. Results of an assessment using this methodology could focus future research to improve our understanding of those impacts and to guide avoidance and minimization strategies. In addition, this methodology can be used to identify species for more intensive demographic modeling or to highlight those species that may not require any additional research because effects of wind energy development on their populations are projected to be small. The effects of wind energy facilities on nine unidentified species used in the test case described in this report have not been assessed. Their data were simply used to show the application of the methodology to real-world data and the types of outputs it would produce.

We estimated U.S. and Mexican citizens' willingness to pay (WTP) for protecting habitat for a transborder migratory species, the Mexican free-tailed bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana), using the contingent valuation method. Few contingent valuation surveys have evaluated whether households in one country would pay to protect habitat in another country. This study addresses that gap. In our study, Mexican respondents were asked about their WTP for conservation of Mexican free-tailed bat habitat in Mexico and in the United States. Similarly, U.S. respondents were asked about their WTP for conservation in the United States and in Mexico. U.S. households would pay $30 annually to protect habitat in the United States and $24 annually to protect habitat in Mexico. Mexican households would pay $8 annually to protect habitat in Mexico and $5 annually to protect habitat in the United States. In both countries, these WTP amounts rose significantly for increasing the size of the bat population rather than simply stabilizing the current bat population. The ratio of Mexican household WTP relative to U.S. household WTP is nearly identical to that of Mexican household income relative to U.S. household income. This suggests that the perceived economic benefits received from the bats is similar in Mexico and the United States, and that scaling WTP by relative income in international benefit transfer may be plausible.

Quantification of the economic value provided by migratory species can aid in targeting management efforts and funding to locations yielding the greatest benefits to society and species conservation. Here we illustrate a key step in this process by estimating hunting and birding values of the northern pintail (Anas acuta) within primary breeding and wintering habitats used during the species' annual migratory cycle in North America. We used published information on user expenditures and net economic values (consumer surplus) for recreational viewing and hunting to determine the economic value of pintail-based recreation in three primary breeding areas and two primary wintering areas. Summed expenditures and consumer surplus for northern pintail viewing were annually valued at $70M, and annual sport hunting totaled $31M (2014 USD). Expenditures for viewing ($42M) were more than twice as high than those for hunting ($18M). Estimates of consumer surplus, defined as the amount consumers are willing to pay above their current expenditures, were $15M greater for viewing ($28M) than for hunting ($13M). We discovered substantial annual consumer surplus ($41M) available for pintail conservation from birders and hunters. We also found spatial differences in economic value among the primary regions used by pintails, with viewing generally valued more in breeding regions than in wintering regions and the reverse being true for hunting. The economic value of pintail-based recreation in the Western wintering region ($26M) exceeded that in any other region by at least a factor of three. Our approach of developing regionally explicit economic values can be extended to other taxonomic groups, and is particularly suitable for migratory game birds because of the availability of large amounts of data. When combined with habitat-linked population models, regionally explicit values could inform development of more effective conservation finance and policy mechanisms to enhance environmental management and societal benefits across the geographically dispersed areas used by migratory species.

Many economic studies value birdwatching in general and often do not account for potential differences in viewers' benefits from observing different species. But, how different are economic values of viewing various bird species? To answer that question, we surveyed Ducks Unlimited (DU) members using an online questionnaire to estimate trip expenditures and consumer surplus per trip for viewing pintail ducks, waterfowl in general, and other species of waterfowl. Expenditures per trip were USD $231, $199, and $182, respectively. Consumer surpluses per trip, estimated using the contingent valuation method, were $28, $32, and $29, respectively. Neither expenditures nor consumer surplus were statistically different among species for DU members who are adept at species differentiation. Our results suggest that it may be reasonable to use a general economic value for waterfowl viewing when formulating management alternatives for a variety of waterfowl.

Detection data from a regional, reptile-monitoring program conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey were analyzed to understand the effects of urbanization and habitat composition on site occupancy of the coachwhip (Masticophis flagellum) and striped racer (M. lateralis) in coastal southern California. Likelihood-based occupancy models indicated striped racers responded to habitat composition, favoring scrub-dominated sites. Coachwhips also responded to habitat composition, favoring open habitats. However, unlike racers, coachwhip spatial population dynamics were strongly associated with the fragmentation and isolation of natural areas caused by urbanization. The odds of coachwhips occupying a site were 64 times greater in large connected areas than the most urbanized and fragmented sites. For coachwhips within urbanized and fragmented sites, the odds of extinction were 10 times greater and odds of colonization were five times lower than in large connected sites. Observed differences between the species in habitat use and specificity are supported by telemetry studies and corroborate existing knowledge of historical patterns of occurrence within the region. Movement data on the coachwhip and striped racer indicate the coachwhip is a wider-ranging species with a greater propensity to encounter roads and other edge environments. Collectively, the results suggest there is widespread loss of the coachwhip from the region, and that long-term persistence of remaining populations is dependent on metapopulation dynamics. The substantially different response of the two species to land-use change serves as a caution against the casual use of closely related species as surrogates in the development of species-specific conservation plans.

Distribution and cover of individual exotic species present on LTETM plots.

A table showing hierarchical multiple linear regression models examining factors influencing of native perennial herb cover in three sample years.

The U.S. Geological Survey project—Energy and Environment in the Rocky Mountain Area (EERMA)—has developed a set of virtual tools in the form of an online interactive energy atlas for Colorado and New Mexico to facilitate access to geospatial data related to energy resources, energy infrastructure, and natural resources that may be affected by energy development. The interactive energy atlas currently (2014) consists of three components: (1) a series of interactive maps; (2) downloadable geospatial datasets; and (3) decison-support tools, including two maps related to hydrologic resources discussed in this report. The hydrologic-resource maps can be used to examine the potential effects of energy development on hydrologic resources with respect to (1) groundwater vulnerability, by using the depth to water, recharge, aquifer media, soil media, topography, impact of the vadose zone, and hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer (DRASTIC) model, and (2) landscape erosion potential, by using the revised universal soil loss equation (RUSLE). The DRASTIC aquifer vulnerability index value for the two-State area ranges from 48 to 199. Higher values, indicating greater relative aquifer vulnerability, are centered in south-central Colorado, areas in southeastern New Mexico, and along riparian corridors in both States—all areas where the water table is relatively close to the land surface and the aquifer is more susceptible to surface influences. As calculated by the RUSLE model, potential mean annual erosion, as soil loss in units of tons per acre per year, ranges from 0 to 12,576 over the two-State area. The RUSLE model calculated low erosion potential over most of Colorado and New Mexico, with predictions of highest erosion potential largely confined to areas of mountains or escarpments. An example is presented of how a fully interactive RUSLE model could be further used as a decision-support tool to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of energy development on a site-specific basis and to explore the effectiveness of various mitigation practices.

Migratory species provide economically beneficial ecosystem services to people throughout their range, yet often, information is lacking about the magnitude and spatial distribution of these benefits at regional scales. We conducted a case study for Northern Pintails (hereafter pintail) in which we quantified regional and sub-regional economic values of subsistence harvest to indigenous communities in Arctic and sub-Arctic North America. As a first step, we used the replacement cost method to quantify the cost of replacing pintail subsistence harvest with the most similar commercially available protein (chicken). For an estimated annual subsistence harvest of ˜15,000 pintail, our mean estimate of the total replacement cost was ˜$63,000 yr−1 ($2010 USD), with sub-regional values ranging from $263 yr−1 to $21,930 yr−1. Our results provide an order-of-magnitude, conservative estimate of one component of the regional ecosystem-service values of pintails, providing perspective on how spatially explicit values can inform migratory species conservation.

Chaparral and coastal sage scrub habitats in southern California support biologically diverse plant and animal communities. However, native plant and animal species within these shrubland systems are increasingly exposed to human-caused wildfires and an expansion of the human–wildland interface. Few data exist to evaluate the effects of fire and anthropogenic pressures on plant and animal communities found in these environments. This is particularly true for carnivore communities. To address this knowledge gap, we collected detection–non-detection data with motion-sensor cameras and track plots to measure carnivore occupancy patterns following a large, human-caused wildfire (1134km2) in eastern San Diego County, California, USA, in 2003. Our focal species set included coyote (Canis latrans), gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus), bobcat (Lynx rufus) and striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis). We evaluated the influence on species occupancies of the burned environment (burn edge, burn interior and unburned areas), proximity of rural homes, distance to riparian area and elevation. Gray fox occupancies were the highest overall, followed by striped skunk, coyote and bobcat. The three species considered as habitat and foraging generalists (gray fox, coyote, striped skunk) were common in all conditions. Occupancy patterns were consistent through time for all species except coyote, whose occupancies increased through time. In addition, environmental and anthropogenic variables had weak effects on all four species, and these responses were species-specific. Our results helped to describe a carnivore community exposed to frequent fire and rural human residences, and provide baseline data to inform fire management policy and wildlife management strategies in similar fire-prone ecosystems.

Throughout the western United States, increased demand for energy is driving the rapid development of nonrenewable and renewable energy resources. Resource managers must balance the benefits of energy development with the potential consequences for ecological resources and ecosystem services. To facilitate access to geospatial data related to energy resources, energy infrastructure, and natural resources that may be affected by energy development, the U.S. Geological Survey has developed an online Interactive Energy Atlas (Energy Atlas) for Colorado and New Mexico. The Energy Atlas is designed to meet the needs of varied users who seek information about energy in the western United States. The Energy Atlas has two primary capabilities: a geographic information system (GIS) data viewer and an interactive map gallery. The GIS data viewer allows users to preview and download GIS data related to energy potential and development in Colorado and New Mexico. The interactive map gallery contains a collection of maps that compile and summarize thematically related data layers in a user-friendly format. The maps are dynamic, allowing users to explore data at different resolutions and obtain information about the features being displayed. The Energy Atlas also includes an interactive decision-support tool, which allows users to explore the potential consequences of energy development for species that vary in their sensitivity to disturbance.

Migratory species support ecosystem process and function in multiple areas, establishing ecological linkages between their different habitats. As they travel, migratory species also provide ecosystem services to people in many different locations. Previous research suggests there may be spatial mismatches between locations where humans use services and the ecosystems that produce them. This occurs with migratory species, between the areas that most support the species' population viability – and hence their long-term ability to provide services – and the locations where species provide the most ecosystem services. This paper presents a conceptual framework for estimating how much a particular location supports the provision of ecosystem services in other locations, and for estimating the extent to which local benefits are dependent upon other locations. We also describe a method for estimating the net payment, or subsidy, owed by or to a location that balances benefits received and support provided by locations throughout the migratory range of multiple species. The ability to quantify these spatial subsidies could provide a foundation for the establishment of markets that incentivize cross-jurisdictional cooperative management of migratory species. It could also provide a mechanism for resolving conflicts over the sustainable and equitable allocation of exploited migratory species.

This is the second report produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) for the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative (WLCI) to detail annual work activities. The first report described work activities for 2007 and 2008; this report covers work activities conducted in 2009. Important differences between the two reports are that (1) this report does not lump all the Effectiveness Monitoring activities together as last year's report did, which will allow WLCI partners and other readers to fully appreciate the scope and accomplishments of those activities, and (2) this report does not include a comprehensive appendix of the background details for each work activity. In 2009, there were 29 ongoing or completed activities, and there were 5 new work activities conducted under the 5 original major multi-disciplinary science and technical assistance activities: (1) Baseline Synthesis; (2) Targeted Monitoring and Research; (3) Data and Information Management; (4) Integration and Coordination; and (5) Decisionmaking and Evaluation. New work included (1) developing a soil-quality index, (2) developing methods for assessing levels of and relationships between mercury and soil organic matter, and (3) ascertaining element source, mobility, and fate. Additionally, (4) remotely sensed imagery was used to assess vegetation as an indicator of soil condition and geology, and (5) an Integrated Assessment (IA) was initiated to synthesize what has been learned about WLCI systems to date, and to develop associated decision tools, maps, and a comprehensive report.

Many ecosystems of conservation concern require some level of disturbance to sustain their species composition and ecological function. However, inappropriate disturbance regimes could favor invasion or expansion of exotic species. In southern California coastal sage scrub (CSS) fire is a natural disturbance, but because of human influence, frequencies may now be unnaturally high. Other anthropogenic disturbances such as grazing also occur in reserve areas. Managers charged with imposing or tolerating fire or other disturbance within their reserves are concerned that habitat quality may be degraded by an increasing abundance of exotic plants. We used vegetation monitoring data from Camp Pendleton, California, USA, to assess the correlation between past disturbances (frequent fire, agriculture, or grazing and mechanical disturbances) and current exotic species abundance in CSS. We found that disturbance history was only modestly related to exotic abundance overall, but fire frequency showed the strongest association. We also examined whether cover and richness of various native plant life forms (woody species, perennial herbs, and annual herbs) were more strongly influenced by disturbance history or by exotic‐plant abundance. Native plant responses varied among life forms, but woody species and annual herbs were generally more strongly and negatively associated with exotic abundance than with disturbance. Effective CSS conservation will require developing means to curb the negative impacts of exotic plants, which may abound with or without severe or recent disturbance. Additionally, more focus should be given to understory herbs showing sensitivity to invasion. Though understudied, native herbs comprise the greatest portion of plant diversity in CSS and are critical to preservation of the community as a whole.

Habitat conservation plans (HCPs) permit the incidental take of threatened or endangered species listed under the federal Endangered Species Act. The US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) and the NOAA Fisheries Service endorse multispecies HCPs, claiming that they offer advantages for both conservation and development. However, the conservation benefits of multispecies plans to individual covered species may be overestimated. We reviewed the species selected for coverage in 22 multispecies HCPs from USFWS Region 1. We found that conservation measures were often not clearly defined, and that the presence of the species in the planning area was not even confirmedfor 41 percent of covered species. While we do not question the conservation value of multispecies plans, our study suggests that changes are needed to achievefull conservation potential.

We studied the movement ecology of Coastal Rosy Boas (Lichanura roseofusca) by radio tracking 17 animals across four sites for up to four years. The typical movement pattern included many short distance moves with rare long distance movements. These skewed distributions made the mean a poor descriptor of movement and this is likely a common issue in other studies. Sexes had similar movement patterns and moved less frequently and shorter distances per day during cooler seasons. Rare long-distance movements occurred primarily in the spring. Propensity to move and mean distance moved per day varied across sites. Home-range size increased with additional fixes even after four years and had a seasonal pattern, increasing during warmer seasons and remaining stable or shrinking during cooler seasons. Despite using novel habitat in sequential years, nearly all individuals used the same general area over longer periods of time. Finally, individuals of both sexes had high levels of spatial overlap. The results indicate for L. roseofusca (1) Individual variability in movement is more the rule than the exception; (2) Common seasonal patterns in movement and space use do exist; (3) Home-range sizes vary through time yet remain in the same general location; and (4) A lack of territoriality and considerable overlap in space use exist.

Current evolutionary models of dispersal set the ends of a continuum where the number of individuals emigrating from a habitat either equals the number of individuals immigrating (balanced dispersal) or where emigrants flow from a source habitat to a corresponding sink. Theories of habitat selection suggest a more sophisticated conditional strategy where individuals disperse from habitats where they have the greatest impact on fitness to habitats where their per capita impact is lower. Asymmetries between periods of population growth and decline result in a reciprocating dispersal strategy where the direction of migration is reversed as populations wax and wane. Thus, for example, if net migration of individuals flows from high- to low-density habitats during periods of population growth, net migration will flow in the opposite direction during population decline. Stochastic simulations and analytical models of reciprocating dispersal demonstrate that fitness, carrying capacity, stochastic dynamics, and interference from dominants interact to determine whether dispersal is balanced between habitats, or whether one habitat or the other acts as a net donor of dispersing individuals. While the pattern of dispersal may vary, each is consistent with an underlying strategy of density-dependent habitat selection.

Theories of dispersal driven by density‐dependent habitat selection demonstrate that putative examples of source–sink dynamics and balanced dispersal may also be explained by a more general pattern of bi‐directional, reciprocating dispersal. Analyses of 19 years of data on dispersal by white‐footed mice confirm the theory. Fitness of territorial white‐footed mice living in an agricultural mosaic is higher in forest habitat than it is in either edge or fencerows. Density‐dependent habitat selection theory predicts that if net emigration by mice flows from the forest to forest‐edge during periods of population growth, animals should subsequently move from the edge to forest during population decline. The pattern of mouse dispersal varies between seasons as populations wax and wane in abundance. Mice tend, as predicted, to move from high‐density forest habitat into low‐density edge during periods of population increase, and from the low‐density edge into high‐density forest during periods of population decline. Over all years combined, dispersal by white‐footed mice was balanced. Each habitat tended to gain as many dispersing individuals as it lost. The results support a conditional dispersal strategy linked to density‐dependent habitat selection, but also suggest the possibility of multiple coexisting strategies.