The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta has the largest intertidal wetland in North America, is a globally critical breeding area for waterbirds, and is home to the largest regional indigenous population in the Arctic. Here, coastal tundra ecosystems, wildlife, and indigenous communities are highly vulnerable to sea-ice loss in the Bering Sea, sea-level rise, storm flooding, erosion, and collapsing ground from permafrost thaw caused by climate warming. These drivers interact in non-linear ways to increase flooding, salinization, and sedimentation, and thus, alter ecosystem trajectories and broader landscape evolution. Rapid changes in these factors over decadal time scales are highly likely to cause transformative shifts in coastal ecosystems across roughly 70% of the outer delta this century. We project saline and brackish ecotypes on the active delta floodplain with frequent sedimentation will maintain dynamic equilibrium with sea-level rise and flooding, slightly brackish ecotypes on the inactive floodplain with infrequent flooding and low sedimentation rates will be vulnerable to increased flooding and likely transition to more saline and brackish ecotypes, and fresh lacustrine and lowland ecotypes on the abandoned floodplain with permafrost plateaus will be vulnerable to thermokarst, salinization and flooding that will shift them toward brackish ecosystems. This will greatly affect bird nesting and foraging habitats, with both winners and losers. Already, some Yup'ik communities are facing relocation of their low-lying villages. The societal challenges and consequences of adapting to these changing landscapes are enormous and will require a huge societal effort.

Since the 1980s, Pacific Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans, hereafter brant) have shifted their winter distribution northward from Mexico to Alaska (approximately 4500 km) with changes in climate. Alongside this shift, the primary breeding population of brant has declined. To understand the population-level implications of the changing migration strategy of brant, it is important to connect movement and demographic data. Our objectives were to calculate migratory connectivity, a measure of spatial and temporal overlap during the non-breeding period, for Arctic and subarctic breeding populations of brant, and to determine if variation in migration strategies affected nesting phenology and nest survival. We derived a migratory network using light-level geolocator migration tracks from an Arctic site (Colville River Delta) and a subarctic site (Tutakoke River) in Alaska. Using this network, we quantified the migratory connectivity of the two populations during the winter. We also compared nest success rates among brant that used different combinations of winter sites and breeding sites. The two breeding populations were well mixed during the winter, as indicated by a migratory connectivity score close to 0 (− 0.06) at the primary wintering sites of Izembek Lagoon, Alaska (n = 11 brant) and Baja California, Mexico (n = 48). However, Arctic birds were more likely to migrate the shorter distance to Izembek (transition probability = 0.24) compared to subarctic birds (transition probability = 0.09). Nest survival for both breeding populations was relatively high (0.88–0.92), and we did not detect an effect of wintering site on nest success the following year. Nest survival of brant did not differ among brant that used wintering sites despite a 4500 km difference in migration distances. Our results also suggested that the growing Arctic breeding population is unlikely to compensate for declines in the larger breeding population of brant in the subarctic. However, this study took place in 2011–2014 and wintering at Izembek Lagoon may have greater implications for reproductive success under future climate conditions.

Abstract Non‐native grazers compete with native species across the globe. We present a novel approach to study the composition of the herbaceous understory across three study areas within the Great‐Basin with different historic and contemporary grazing regimes. We surveyed the landscape using distance sampling for livestock and horse feces as an index of use. In addition, we surveyed the herbaceous understory of random sites as well as sites chosen by female Greater sage‐grouse to nest and brood their chicks. We used a novel Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework to link vegetation metrics with the spatial–temporal distribution of horses and livestock while accounting for observation error. When livestock and feral horses were not present, we found that Greater sage‐grouse use sites with higher percentages of perennial grasses and forbs to build their nests and brood their chicks compared with what was available to them. As livestock increased, we found evidence for decreases in the percentage of perennial grasses, forbs, cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum), and increases in the amount of bare ground. These effects were consistent at available sites and brood sites; however, we found less evidence for an impact of livestock at nest sites. As feral horses increased, we observed similar results at available sites, but at sites chosen by females to nest and brood their chicks, we observed increases in the amount of invasive cheatgrass as feral horses increased, which could reflect attempts by Greater sage‐grouse to compensate for reductions in protective cover. We present a noninvasive approach to assess space use that can be applied to other species. More importantly, we document that grazing by non‐native ungulates impacts components of the plant community important to Greater sage‐grouse reproduction. We provide spatial–temporal maps of livestock and feral horse use to aid managers attempting to balance the needs of livestock producers, feral horses, Greater sage‐grouse, and ecosystem function.

Abstract Estimating correlations among demographic parameters is an important method in population ecology. A recent paper by Deane et al. (Ecology and Evolution 13:e9847, 2023) attempted to explore the effects of different priors for covariance matrices on inference when using mark‐recovery data. Unfortunately, Deane et al. (2023) made a mistake when parameterizing some of their models. Rather than exploring the effects of different priors, they examined the effects of the use of incorrect equations on inference. In this manuscript, we clearly describe the mistake in Deane et al. (2023). We then demonstrate the use of an alternative and appropriate method and reach different conclusions regarding the effects of priors on inference. Consistent with other recent literature, informative inverse Wishart priors can lead to flawed inference, while vague priors on covariance matrix components have little impact when sample sizes are adequate.

Highly seasonal environments can increase competition among herbivores for nutrients, affecting rates of reproduction and survival. There is concern about the impacts of non-native ungulates on Greater Sage-grouse in the Great Basin of North America. We estimated nesting propensity, the annual proportion of females attempting a nest, for Greater Sage-grouse in relation to the abundance of ungulates using 7 years of data from the northwestern Great Basin, USA. We focused on nesting because it is the necessary first major investment required for the production of new recruits. We used a Bayesian multistratum model to investigate the effects of weather and sympatric non-native herbivores, free-roaming horses and domestic cattle, on reproductive rates and female survival of adult and yearling sage-grouse. Adults nested at a higher rate (0.931, 95% CI, 0.904-0.953) than yearlings (0.867, 95% CI, 0.802-0.922) under average conditions of covariates other than age. If the first nest failed, renesting rates were similar between adults (0.349, 95% CI, 0.292-0.410) and yearlings (0.353, 95% CI, 0.217-0.507). Females in better body condition at the start of the season nested at higher rates, and moderately snowy winters led to the highest nesting propensity during the following spring. Drier conditions led to low rates of nesting, particularly in areas with dense cattle grazing. Female survival was lower for nesting females, indicating a survival cost of reproduction. Areas with abundant free-roaming horses had slightly higher nesting propensity, though other research suggests negative impacts later in the breeding cycle. Sage-grouse face life history trade-offs that may be shifting due to changing climatic conditions. Our work suggests that the effects of competition with non-native ungulates on sage-grouse life histories may be exacerbated by adverse weather.

Abstract As global systems rapidly change, our collective ability to predict future ecological dynamics will become increasingly important for successful natural resource management. By merging stakeholder objectives with system uncertainty, and by adapting actions to changing systems and knowledge, adaptive resource management (ARM) provides a rigorous platform for making sound decisions in a changing world. Critically, however, applications of ARM could be improved by employing benchmarks (i.e., points of reference) for determining when learning is occurring through the cycle of monitoring, modeling, and decision‐making steps in ARM. Many applications of ARM use multiple model‐based hypotheses to identify and reduce systematic uncertainty over time, but generally lack benchmarks for gauging discovery of scientific evidence and learning. This creates the danger of thinking that directional changes in model weights or rankings are indicative of evidence for hypotheses, when possibly all competing models are inadequate. There is thus a somewhat obvious, but yet to be filled niche for including benchmarks for learning in ARM. We contend that carefully designed “ecological null models,” which are structured to produce an expected ecological pattern in the absence of a hypothesized mechanism, can serve as suitable benchmarks. Using a classic case study of mallard harvest management that is often used to demonstrate the successes of ARM for learning about ecological mechanisms, we show that simple ecological null models, such as population persistence (Nt +1 = Nt ), provide more robust near‐term forecasts of population abundance than the currently used mechanistic models. More broadly, ecological null models can be used as benchmarks for learning in ARM that trigger the need for discarding model parameterizations and developing new ones when prevailing models underperform the ecological null model. Identifying mechanistic models that surpass these benchmarks will improve learning through ARM and help decision‐makers keep pace with a rapidly changing world.

Colonial nesting is associated with numerous costs and benefits that may either increase or decrease fitness of individuals in colonies. Fitness can vary as a function of the location within colonies and individuals may attempt to improve their fitness by changing their nesting location between years. We used a 24 year data set on nest locations within the Tutakoke River Black Brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) colony on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta in western Alaska and multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to study the movement of individuals between 2 spatial strata in the colony separated by the Tutakoke River. We found that individuals nesting in a stratum that experienced higher levels of predation by arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) were 3 times more likely to move to the other stratum than vice versa, despite slightly higher risk of tidal flooding in the second stratum. These results suggest that Black Brant changed nest locations in an attempt to maximize reproductive fitness and they are consistent with a long-term shift in nest density over the course of the study.

Sex ratios affect population dynamics and individual fitness, and changing sex ratios can be indicative of shifts in sex-specific survival at different life stages. While climate and landscape changes alter sex ratios of wild bird populations, long-term, landscape scale assessments of sex ratios are rare. Further, little work has been done to understand changes in sex ratios in avian communities. In this manuscript, we analyze long-term (1961-2015) data on five species of ducks across five broad climatic regions of the United States to estimate the effects of drought and long-term trends on the proportion of juvenile females captured at banding. As waterfowl have a 1:1 sex ratio at hatch, we interpret changes in sex ratios of captured juveniles as changes in sex-specific survival rates during early life. Seven of 12 species-region pairs exhibited evidence for long-term trends in the proportion of juvenile females at banding. The proportion of juvenile females at banding increased for duck populations in the western United States and typically declined for duck populations in the eastern United States. We only observed evidence for an effect of drought in two of the 12 species-region pairs, where the proportion of females declined during drought. As changes to North American landscapes and climate continue and intensify, we expect continued changes in sex-specific juvenile survival rates. More broadly, we encourage further research examining the mechanisms underlying long-term trends in juvenile sex ratios in avian communities.

Abstract Population growth and fitness are typically most sensitive to adult survival in long‐lived species, but variation in recruitment often explains most of the variation in fitness, as past selection has canalized adult survival. Estimating juvenile survival until age of independence has proven challenging, because marking individuals in this age class may directly affect survival. For Greater Sage‐grouse, uniquely marking juveniles in the first days of life likely results in adverse effects to survival, detection of juveniles is not perfect, and females adopt juveniles from other parents. These challenges are encountered by researchers studying avian and mammalian species with similar life histories, yet methods do not exist that explicitly estimate all these components of the recruitment process. We propose a novel data collection method and demographic model to simultaneously estimate rates of detection, survival, and adoption of juvenile individuals. Using multiple cameras to film the beginning of juvenile activity on specific days, we obtained counts of juveniles associated with marked females. Increases of juveniles to broods provided information that enabled us to estimate rates of adoption that can be applied at the population level. Losses from broods informed apparent survival. These losses could be attributed to death, or they could be chicks that were adopted by other females. We found evidence that apparent survival of juveniles was influenced by localized weather patterns when chicks were young. Similarly, we found that young chicks were more susceptible to the adverse effect of attending females being flushed by an observer. Both of these patterns diminished quickly as chicks aged. We provide the first‐ever estimates of interval‐specific adoption rates. Our results suggest that researchers should be cautious when designing studies to estimate juvenile survival. More importantly, they provide insight into adoption, a behavior that has been known to exist for decades.

The estimation of demographic parameters is a key component of evolutionary demography and conservation biology. Capture-mark-recapture methods have served as a fundamental tool for estimating demographic parameters. The accurate estimation of demographic parameters in capture-mark-recapture studies depends on accurate modeling of the observation process. Classic capture-mark-recapture models typically model the observation process as a Bernoulli or categorical trial with detection probability conditional on a marked individual's availability for detection (e.g., alive, or alive and present in a study area). Alternatives to this approach are underused, but may have great utility in capture-recapture studies. In this paper, we explore a simple concept: in the same way that counts contain more information about abundance than simple detection/non-detection data, the number of encounters of individuals during observation occasions contains more information about the observation process than detection/non-detection data for individuals during the same occasion. Rather than using Bernoulli or categorical distributions to estimate detection probability, we demonstrate the application of zero-inflated Poisson and gamma-Poisson distributions. The use of count distributions allows for inference on availability for encounter, as well as a wide variety of parameterizations for heterogeneity in the observation process. We demonstrate that this approach can accurately recover demographic and observation parameters in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability and discuss some potential future extensions of this method.

ABSTRACTAuxiliary markers play an essential role in understanding migration, movement, demography, and behavior of migratory birds. Use of such markers relies on the assumption that the markers do not affect the traits of interest. Neck collars, among the most conspicuous of markers, substantially affect risk of harvest, and survival even in the absence of harvest. Effects of less‐conspicuous markers, such as colored plastic tarsal bands, are not well understood. We used 30 years (1986–2015) of banding, recovery, and recapture data from the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta in Alaska, USA, to assess differences in direct band recovery rates (DRRs) between black plastic and brightly colored plastic bands applied to black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans). We also assessed the effect of the color of plastic tarsal bands on annual survival, risks of natural mortality harvest, and fidelity to the breeding colony of adult female black brant. When assessing only DRRs we found that brightly colored bands were recovered at higher rates than black plastic bands in the early 2000s, but DRRs for black bands increased more rapidly through time, resulting in similar DRRs for the 2 band colors at the end of the study. Using a Burnham model structure, our results demonstrated that individuals fitted with colored bands had slightly lower hazards of dying from natural causes or hunting than individuals carrying less‐conspicuous black tarsal bands. Differences on annual probability scales were small and credible intervals broadly overlapped between band types, indicating minimal differences between individuals with different band types; however, we could not resolve all confounding in our study design and we suggest that specific studies directed at assessing marker effects are warranted. We encourage education of hunters about their roles as citizen scientists and the potentially detrimental effect of targeting birds with auxiliary markers.

Non-native ungulate grazing has negatively impacted native species across the globe, leading to massive loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. Despite their pervasiveness, interactions between non-native grazers and native species are not fully understood. We often observe declines in demography or survival of these native species, but lack understanding about the mechanisms underlying these declines. Physiological stress represents one mechanism of (mal)adaptation, but data are sparse. We investigated glucocorticoid levels in a native avian herbivore exposed to different intensities of non-native grazing in the cold desert Great Basin ecosystem, USA. We measured corticosterone, a glucocorticoid in feathers for a large sample (n = 280) of female greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) from three study areas in Northern Nevada and Southern Oregon with different grazing regimes of livestock and feral horses. We found that greater feral horse density was associated with higher corticosterone levels, and this effect was exacerbated by drought conditions. Livestock grazing produced similar results; however, there was more model uncertainty about the livestock effect. Subsequent nesting success was lower with increased feather corticosterone, but corticosterone levels were not predictive of other vital rates. Our results indicate a physiological response by sage-grouse to grazing pressure from non-native grazers. We found substantial among-individual variation in the strength of the response. These adverse effects were intensified during unfavorable weather events, highlighting the need to reevaluate management strategies in the face of climate change.

The management of sustainable harvest of animal populations is of great ecological and conservation importance. Development of formal quantitative tools to estimate and mitigate the impacts of harvest on animal populations has positively impacted conservation efforts. The vast majority of existing harvest models, however, do not simultaneously estimate ecological and harvest impacts on demographic parameters and population trends. Given that the impacts of ecological drivers are often equal to or greater than the effects of harvest, and can covary with harvest, this disconnect has the potential to lead to flawed inference. In this study, we used Bayesian hierarchical models and a 43-year capture-mark-recovery dataset from 404,241 female mallards Anas platyrhynchos released in the North American midcontinent to estimate mallard demographic parameters. Furthermore, we model the dynamics of waterfowl hunters and habitat, and the direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic and ecological processes on mallard demographic parameters. We demonstrate that density dependence, habitat conditions and harvest can simultaneously impact demographic parameters of female mallards, and discuss implications for existing and future harvest management models. Our results demonstrate the importance of controlling for multicollinearity among demographic drivers in harvest management models, and provide evidence for multiple mechanisms that lead to partial compensation of mallard harvest. We provide a novel model structure to assess these relationships that may allow for improved inference and prediction in future iterations of harvest management models across taxa.

Abstract Harvest of wild organisms is an important component of human culture, economy, and recreation, but can also put species at risk of extinction. Decisions that guide successful management actions therefore rely on the ability of researchers to link changes in demographic processes to the anthropogenic actions or environmental changes that underlie variation in demographic parameters. Ecologists often use population models or maximum sustained yield curves to estimate the impacts of harvest on wildlife and fish populations. Applications of these models usually focus exclusively on the impact of harvest and often fail to consider adequately other potential, often collinear, mechanistic drivers of the observed relationships between harvest and demographic rates. In this study, we used an integrated population model and long‐term data (1973–2016) to examine the relationships among hunting and natural mortality, the number of hunters, habitat conditions, and population size of blue‐winged teal Spatula discors, an abundant North American dabbling duck with a relatively fast‐paced life history strategy. Over the last two and a half decades of the study, teal abundance tripled, hunting mortality probability increased slightly (<0.02), and natural mortality probability increased substantially (>0.1) at greater population densities. We demonstrate strong density‐dependent effects on natural mortality and fecundity as population density increased, indicative of compensatory harvest mortality and compensatory natality. Critically, an analysis that only assessed the relationship between survival and hunting mortality would spuriously indicate depensatory mortality due to multicollinearity between abundance, natural mortality and hunting mortality. Our findings demonstrate that models that only consider the direct effect of hunting on survival or natural mortality can fail to accurately assess the mechanistic impact of hunting on population dynamics due to multicollinearity among demographic drivers. This multicollinearity limits inference and may have strong impacts on applied management actions globally.

The Coalition for Healthy Nevada Lands, Wildlife and Free-roaming Horses (CHNL) is dedicated to proper management of free-roaming horses (Equus caballus) and burros (E. asinus) so rangelands are healthy, which benefits wildlife and the horses and burros themselves. The CHNL proposes the rapid reduction of horses and burros on designated public lands to achieve appropriate management levels (AML). After these reductions, the use of fertility control, supplemented with some gathers and adoption of gathered horses, should allow the Bureau of Land Management to economically maintain horse and burro populations at AML. The CHNL believes this approach will be the most expeditious to restoring rangeland to health and cost-effective as it reduces handling of horses and burros. Herein, we describe CHNL's rationale for this approach and our effort to have the Nevada Legislature pass a resolution supporting the proposal.

Previous articleNext article No AccessGeneral BiologyIntegrated Population Models: Theory and Ecological Applications with R and JAGS. By Michael Schaub and Marc Kéry. Academic Press. Amsterdam (The Netherlands) and New York: Elsevier. $106.25. xvi + 622 p.; ill.; author and subject indexes. ISBN: 978-0-323-90810-8. 2022.James S. SedingerJames S. SedingerNatural Resources & Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The Quarterly Review of Biology Volume 97, Number 4December 2022 Published in association with Stony Brook University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/722657 Views: 21Total views on this site For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Abstract Estimating demographic parameters of interest is a critical component of applied conservation biology and evolutionary ecology, where demographic models and demographic data have become increasingly complex over the last several decades. These advances have been spurred by the development and use of information theoretic approaches, programs such as MARK and SURGE, and Bayesian inference. The use of Bayesian analyses has also become increasingly popular, where WinBUGS, JAGS, Stan, and NIMBLE provide increased user flexibility. Despite recent advances in Bayesian demographic modeling, some capture–recapture models that have been implemented in Program MARK remain unavailable to quantitative ecologists that wish to use Bayesian modeling approaches. We provide novel parameterizations of capture–mark–recapture–resight–recovery models implemented in Program MARK that have not yet been implemented in the BUGS language. Simulations show that the models described herein provide accurate parameter estimates. Our parameterizations of these models can easily be extended to estimate additional parameters such as entry probability, additional live states, or cause‐specific mortality rates. Additionally, implementing these models in a Bayesian framework allows users to readily estimate parameters as mixtures, incorporate random individual or temporal variation, and use informative priors to assist with parameter estimation.

AbstractHeterogeneity in the intrinsic quality and nutritional condition of individuals affects reproductive success and consequently fitness. Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) are long‐lived, migratory, specialist herbivores. Long migratory pathways and short summer breeding seasons constrain the time and energy available for reproduction, thus magnifying life‐history trade‐offs. These constraints, combined with long lifespans and trade‐offs between current and future reproductive value, provide a model system to examine the role of individual heterogeneity in driving life‐history strategies and individual heterogeneity in fitness. We used hierarchical Bayesian models to examine reproductive trade‐offs, modeling the relationships between within‐year measures of reproductive energy allocation and among‐year demographic rates of individual females breeding on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, using capture–recapture and reproductive data from 1988 to 2014. We generally found that annual survival tended to be buffered against variation in reproductive investment, while breeding probability varied considerably over the range of clutch size‐laying date combinations. We provide evidence for relationships between breeding probability and clutch size, breeding probability and nest initiation date, and an interaction between clutch size and initiation date. Average lifetime clutch size also had a weak positive relationship with apparent survival probability. Our results support the use of demographic buffering strategies for black brant. These results also indirectly suggest associations among environmental conditions during growth, fitness, and energy allocation, highlighting the effects of early growth conditions on individual heterogeneity, and subsequently, lifetime reproductive investment.