Joint estimation of demographic rates and population size has become an essential tool in ecology because it enables evaluating mechanisms for population change and testing hypotheses about drivers of demography in a single modeling framework. This approach provides a comprehensive perspective on population dynamics and how animal populations will respond to global pressures in future years. However, long-term data for such analyses are often limited in quantity and quality. We developed an integrated population model combining data on demography and population size from nine different sources to understand the population ecology of the lesser snow goose (Anser caerulescens caerulescens) in the Pacific Flyway in North America from 1970 to 2022. We divided the flyway population into Wrangel Island and Western Arctic subpopulations and assessed demographic mechanisms for population change and environmental and anthropogenic drivers that influenced demography. During 1970-2022, the estimated spring population of snow geese in the Pacific Flyway increased from ~300,000 to ~2,300,000. Short-term changes in population growth rate were primarily driven by changes in productivity in the Western Arctic and productivity and immigration in Wrangel Island. Changes in hunting and natural mortality had less influence on short-term but likely contributed to the pronounced long-term population growth. Early snowmelt positively influenced per capita productivity in both regions, and warm, rainy weather during the non-breeding season was associated with high per capita productivity in the Western Arctic. In the Western Arctic, per capita productivity was negatively associated with population size, and adult natural mortality was positively associated with population size, indicating density-dependent regulation in this subpopulation. In Wrangel Island, warm weather in early fall decreased juvenile natural mortality. Our results demonstrate that per capita productivity and immigration, rather than adult survival, were the primary mechanisms of short-term population change in this long-lived species. Our results also indicate that environmental conditions and density-dependent effects can impact population dynamics more than harvest, even for a long-lived, commonly harvested species. We demonstrate that a warming climate can have multiple effects on demography, emphasizing the importance of assessing a variety of spatial and temporal factors when predicting how populations might respond to large-scale environmental changes. This emphasizes the importance of conservation plans that consider these environmental drivers, although this may complicate direct management of such populations.

Identifying the specific environmental features and associated density-dependent processes that limit population growth is central to both ecology and conservation. Comparative assessments of sympatric species allow for inference about how ecologically similar species differentially respond to their shared environment, which can be used to inform community-level conservation strategies. Comparative assessments can nevertheless be complicated by interactions and feedback loops among the species in question. We developed an integrated population model based on 61 years of ecological data describing the demographic histories of Canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) and Redheads (Aythya americana), two species of migratory diving ducks that utilize similar breeding habitats and affect each other's demography through interspecific nest parasitism. We combined this model with a transient life table response experiment to determine the extent that demographic rates, and their contributions to population growth, were similar between these two species. We found that demographic rates and, to a lesser extent, their contributions to population growth covaried between Canvasbacks and Redheads, but the trajectories of population abundances widely diverged between the two species during the end of the twentieth century due to inherent differences between the species life histories and sensitivities to both environmental variation and harvest pressure. We found that annual survival of both species increased during years of restrictive harvest regulations; however, recent harvest pressure on female Canvasbacks may be contributing to population declines. Despite periodic, and often dramatic, increases in breeding abundance during wet years, the number of breeding Canvasbacks declined by 13% whereas the number of breeding Redheads has increased by 37% since 1961. Reductions in harvest pressure and improvements in submerged aquatic vegetation throughout the wintering grounds have mediated the extent to which populations of both species contracted during dry years in the Prairie Pothole Region. However, continued degradation of breeding habitats through climate-related shifts in wetland hydrology and agricultural conversion of surrounding grassland habitats may have exceeded the capacity for demographic compensation during the nonbreeding season.

Linking the demographic parameters underlying population change to environmental conditions is a central goal of population demography. However, multicollinearity among processes in ecological studies can complicate parameter estimation and inference. We sought to demonstrate the use of structural equation modelling, a technique for estimating hypothesized causal pathways among collinear observed and unobserved variables, in the context of integrated population models. We monitored a population of Tengmalm's owls(Aegolius funereus) breeding in the Jura Mountains of northwestern Switzerland and eastern France for 31 years (1990-2020) and collected data on captured prey items. We use concepts central to structural equation models (i.e., latent variables) and integrated population models to estimate the effects of latent prey abundance on Tengmalm's owl demographic parameters. We observed strong positive effects of latent prey abundance during time t on clutch size, fledging probability, and immigration rates into the breeding population, and strong effects of positive changes in latent prey abundance from time t to t + 1 on first-year and adult survival. We also observed long-term declines in immigration into the study area. Our work provides a straightforward example of incorporating concepts central to structural equation models (e.g., latent variables) to model environmental processes underlying demographic rates in integrated population models, and has interesting implications for metapopulation ecology of Tengmalm's owl populations in Europe.

Nesting colonial seabirds are prime examples of central-place foragers, animals that must return to a central location (e.g., a breeding colony) after each bout of foraging. They must balance the costs and benefits of foraging with the need to return to their colonies frequently to form pair bonds during courtship, incubate, provision mates and offspring, and protect and rear young. For some populations, the loss and degradation of suitable breeding habitat due to human activities have necessitated the construction of new breeding sites and/or the restoration of previously occupied sites. South Island, which is part of the Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel (HRBT) complex in the Commonwealth of Virginia, U.S.A., is a human-created island that supported Virginia’s largest mixed species seabird colony until 2020, when the expansion of the HRBT began and when all nesting seabirds were permanently excluded from the site. We studied the movement patterns of foraging common terns (Sterna hirundo) to determine how travel to and around foraging sites related to their colony location and to inform the siting and construction of a new breeding island. We tracked 18 individual common terns from 07 June to 29 June 2018, and we used a hidden Markov model to assign behavioral states and investigate common tern movements around the HRBT. Common terns spent more than half their time in the colony (58%), followed by time devoted to foraging (22%), and the remainder of their time was spent on outbound (15%) and inbound (5%) transit. Terns traveled as far as 98km from the colony, but on average foraged relatively close to South Island (13.6 ± 0.3km, mean ± 1 SD). Individuals tended to forage in the same locations, but there was variation among individuals. Flying to foraging sites uses energy during the already energetically costly breeding season, thus managers should prioritize placing a new colony site in a location that minimizes the distance traveled to the foraging locations frequented by the South Island birds while accounting for other life-history characteristics. These findings could help in the design and construction of new breeding sites or the restoration of current sites for other, related species, particularly for which these data do not exist.

Understanding the environmental mechanisms that govern population change is a fundamental objective in ecology. Although the determination of how top-down and bottom-up drivers affect demography is important, it is often equally critical to understand the extent to which, environmental conditions that underpin these drivers fluctuate across time. For example, associations between climate and both food availability and predation risk may suggest the presence of trophic interactions that may influence inferences made from patterns in ecological data. Analytical tools have been developed to account for these correlations, while providing opportunities to ask novel questions regarding how populations change across space and time. Here, we combine two modeling disciplines-path analysis and mark-recapture-recovery models-to explore whether shifts in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) influenced top-down (entanglement in fishing equipment) or bottom-up (forage fish production) population constraints over 60 years, and the extent to which these covarying processes shaped the survival of a long-lived seabird, the Royal tern. We found that hemispheric trends in SST were associated with variation in the amount of fish harvested along the Atlantic coast of North America and in the Caribbean, whereas reductions in forage fish production were mostly driven by shifts in the amount of fish harvested by commercial fisheries throughout the North Atlantic the year prior. Although the indirect (i.e., stock depletion) and direct (i.e., entanglement) impacts of commercial fishing on Royal tern mortality has declined over the last 60 years, increased SSTs during this time period has resulted in a comparable increase in mortality risk, which disproportionately impacted the survival of the youngest age-classes of Royal terns. Given climate projections for the North Atlantic, our results indicate that threats to Royal tern population persistence in the Mid-Atlantic will most likely be driven by failures to recruit juveniles into the breeding population.

Population declines of disturbance-dependent species due to suppression of natural disturbances are realized across ecosystems. The piping plover (Charadrius melodus; plover), a disturbance-dependent and conservation-reliant shorebird that nests on sandy beaches and barrier islands on the Atlantic Coast, was listed under the United States Endangered Species Act in 1986. In 2012, Hurricane Sandy landed on Fire and Westhampton islands, barrier island nesting sites for plovers in New York, USA. Hurricane Sandy was a natural disturbance in this system, creating abundant nesting habitat. The number of chicks produced by a pair, or a population, is a direct measure of reproductive output, and gaining a better understanding of productivity and chick behavior following large-scale habitat creation may improve plover habitat management and potentially species persistence. We evaluated the effects of landscape features on habitat selection, behavior, and survival of plover broods using logistic regression, generalized linear mixed effects models, and survival models. Plover broods selected flatter sites with less dense vegetation than available at random. Chick foraging rates were highest in moist substrates and were lower in areas of higher nesting plover density. Chick survival was greater for broods that hatched earlier in the breeding season and increased as chicks aged. Generally, providing access to sites with flatter, moist substrates will likely result in higher quality brood rearing habitat on the landscape. Ultimately, vegetation removal and habitat management may be needed to reduce plover nesting density and ensure sufficient habitat, which may in turn improve plover chick survival. Moreover, sustaining natural landscape disturbances such as those resulting from storms, and not taking actions to prevent hurricane-created overwash, will allow these landscape features to persist.

In coastal Patagonia, Argentina, shorebird breeding habitats overlap with high levels of human recreational activities, such as dog-walking and driving motorized vehicles. We assessed physiological traits related to body condition, nutritional metabolites, cellular immunity, and stress responses of adult Two-banded Plovers (Charadrius falklandicus) in northern Chubut, Patagonia, Argentina. We examined blood samples from 46 individuals captured at an urban ("disturbed" treatment, n = 28) and a rural beach ("control" treatment, n = 18) between 2016 and 2017. We studied (1) body condition by size-correcting body mass to wing-chord lengths, (2) nutritional metabolites, such as the haematocrit, glucose, and concentrations of triglycerides, cholesterol, and total proteins, (3) cellular immunity by counting total leukocytes, and the percentages of heterophils, lymphocytes, eosinophils, and monocytes, and (4) stress responses by obtaining the heterophil/lymphocyte ratio and quantifications of plasma baseline corticosterone. We determined the overall support of predictor variables: treatment, day of the year (DOY), interaction DOY x treatment, year, and sex on a multivariate assessment using MANOVA. Body condition and triglycerides decreased, and monocytes increased, during the breeding season at the control site (DOY x treatment). Body condition significantly differed by sex, with males exhibiting lower values than females. Triglycerides, cholesterol, and total leukocyte count significantly differed between years, showing higher values in 2017. The multivariate model showed the greatest variation only explanatory in DOY (n = 0.67, P < 0.001) and year (n2 = 0.62, P = 0.001). Overall, birds exhibited depleted body condition and triglycerides throughout the season at the control site: a pattern likely biased by the capture date. Contrary to the disturbed site, most samples at the control site were collected from mid-to-late breeding season each year, and most birds were likely renesting. Sex differences observed for body condition suggest greater energy-costly reproduction activities for males, including territory defense and courtship behaviors. No significant differences were found in stress responses, and based on observations in the field, birds may tolerate human disturbance. Habituation was a previously suggested coping mechanism for reducing the costs of repeated exposure to non-lethal stimuli, such as human activity. Given that no treatment effects on physiological traits were observed, beyond triglycerides, our results may still help to improve the decisions of wildlife managers toward protecting beach -nesting areas by preventing impacts to nests, chicks, and pairs during their breeding season.

Beringia is a biogeographically dynamic region that extends from northeastern Asia into northwestern North America. This region has affected avian divergence and speciation in three important ways: (i) by serving as a route for intercontinental colonisation between Asia and the Americas; (ii) by cyclically splitting (and often reuniting) populations, subspecies, and species between these continents; and (iii) by providing isolated refugia through glacial cycles. The effects of these processes can be seen in taxonomic splits of shallow to increasing depths and in the presence of regional endemics. We review the taxa involved in the latter two processes (splitting-reuniting and isolation), with a focus on three research topics: avian diversity, time estimates of the generation of that diversity, and the regions within Beringia that might have been especially important. We find that these processes have generated substantial amounts of avian diversity, including 49 pairs of avian subspecies or species whose breeding distributions largely replace one another across the divide between the Old World and the New World in Beringia, and 103 avian species and subspecies endemic to this region. Among endemics, about one in three is recognised as a full biological species. Endemic taxa in the orders Charadriiformes (shorebirds, alcids, gulls, and terns) and Passeriformes (perching birds) are particularly well represented, although they show very different levels of diversity through evolutionary time. Endemic Beringian Charadriiformes have a 1.31:1 ratio of species to subspecies. In Passeriformes, endemic taxa have a 0.09:1 species-to-subspecies ratio, suggesting that passerine (and thus terrestrial) endemism might be more prone to long-term extinction in this region, although such 'losses' could occur through their being reconnected with wider continental populations during favourable climatic cycles (e.g. subspecies reintegration with other populations). Genetic evidence suggests that most Beringian avian taxa originated over the past 3 million years, confirming the importance of Quaternary processes. There seems to be no obvious clustering in their formation through time, although there might be temporal gaps with lower rates of diversity generation. For at least 62 species, taxonomically undifferentiated populations occupy this region, providing ample potential for future evolutionary diversification.

The estimation of demographic parameters is a key component of evolutionary demography and conservation biology. Capture-mark-recapture methods have served as a fundamental tool for estimating demographic parameters. The accurate estimation of demographic parameters in capture-mark-recapture studies depends on accurate modeling of the observation process. Classic capture-mark-recapture models typically model the observation process as a Bernoulli or categorical trial with detection probability conditional on a marked individual's availability for detection (e.g., alive, or alive and present in a study area). Alternatives to this approach are underused, but may have great utility in capture-recapture studies. In this paper, we explore a simple concept: in the same way that counts contain more information about abundance than simple detection/non-detection data, the number of encounters of individuals during observation occasions contains more information about the observation process than detection/non-detection data for individuals during the same occasion. Rather than using Bernoulli or categorical distributions to estimate detection probability, we demonstrate the application of zero-inflated Poisson and gamma-Poisson distributions. The use of count distributions allows for inference on availability for encounter, as well as a wide variety of parameterizations for heterogeneity in the observation process. We demonstrate that this approach can accurately recover demographic and observation parameters in the presence of individual heterogeneity in detection probability and discuss some potential future extensions of this method.

The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) is critical to avian conservation in the United States, both through its protection of migratory birds and as a catalyst for a century of coordinated avian conservation. While more than 1,000 species are protected by MBTA, of extant bird species native to the continental U.S., only 20 species belonging to the order Galliformes are explicitly excluded. Management of galliforms has occurred largely without direct federal oversight, placing this group on a fundamentally different conservation path during the century following MBTA passage. In this paper, we review the historical context and biological justification for exclusion of galliforms from MBTA and synthesize how their present-day conservation differs from that of migratory birds. We find the most prominent difference between the two groups involves the scope of coordination among stakeholders. The U.S. government, primarily via the Department of Interior, acts as de facto coordinating body for migratory bird conservation and plays the central role in oversight, funding, and administration of management in the United States. In contrast, galliform management falls primarily to individual state wildlife agencies, and coordinated conservation efforts have been more ad hoc and unevenly spread across species. Migratory birds benefit from an almost universally greater scope of research and monitoring, scale of habitat conservation, and sophistication of harvest management compared with galliforms. Galliform harvest management plans, in particular, are less likely to use measurable objectives, reporting of uncertainty in population parameters, and explanation of harvest management techniques. Based on a review of species status lists (e.g., the U.S. Endangered Species Act), we found no evidence that galliforms were more frequently listed than migratory species. Regional trend estimates from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) were more likely to be negative for galliforms over the period 1966-2015, but this was primarily driven by Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). Data to assess galliform population status are generally poor, which complicates assessment for roughly half of galliform species. Increased support for coordination among state agencies and other stakeholders, similar to that applied to migratory birds, could help to ensure that galliform conservation is poised to tackle forthcoming challenges associated with global change. Lay Summary center dot The Migratory Bird Treaty Act (MBTA) is a landmark piece of U.S. federal legislation that provided a mechanism for the protection of migratory birds via international treaty. center dot More than 1,000 species are protected by MBTA, however, 20 birds both native and resident to the continental U.S. are excluded from protection. All belong to the order Galliformes (grouse, quail, turkey, and chachalaca). center dot Galliform conservation has differed fundamentally from migratory birds over the last 100 years, where individual state wildlife agencies conduct management largely absent direct federal oversight. Coordinated conservation has been more ad hoc and unevenly spread across species as a result, and harvest management has been less well-developed, compared with migratory birds. center dot We found no evidence that galliforms were more frequently included on conservation status lists than migratory species. Regional trend estimates from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) were more likely to be negative for galliforms, but this was largely driven by a single species, the Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus). center dot Increased support for coordination among state agencies and other stakeholders, similar to that applied to migratory birds, could benefit galliform conservation.

ABSTRACT Evaluating population-level responses to conservation action following large-scale disturbance can improve the efficacy of future habitat conservation measures. In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy storm surges cleared vegetation and opened inlets through the barrier islands, Fire Island and Westhampton Island, New York, creating Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) habitat. Storm effects prompted an island-wide stabilization project, which had the potential to negatively affect novel Piping Plover habitat. Certain sections of Fire Island were designed to create and/or improve habitat (hereafter, restoration areas) to mitigate possible habitat loss or degradation. Since Piping Plovers in New York appear to be habitat-limited, we anticipated positive population growth following habitat creation. From 2013 to 2018, we captured and banded 152 adults and 353 chicks, and monitored 279 nests and 160 broods. We developed an integrated population model to assess demographic processes in response to hurricane created-habitat (2013–2018) and the creation of restoration areas (2015–2018). We observed positive population growth in 3 of 5 yr, and overall growth throughout the period ( = 1.13). Immigration and reproductive output were correlated with population growth (r = 0.92 [95% CI: 0.22 to 0.98] and 0.84 [95% CI: –0.47 to 0.95], respectively). Compared with the rest of the study area, restoration areas had higher chick survival, and lower nest survival and after second-year site fidelity. The result was population growth in restoration areas ( = 1.14) similar to the whole study area. In the short term, restoration areas seemed to mimic natural Piping Plover habitat. Vegetation removal, an important process in renewing natural Piping Plover habitat, likely will be necessary to maintain habitat suitability. Efforts to increase immigration of new breeding adults into the system, and to improve reproductive output, primarily by habitat creation or maintenance, are likely to have the greatest local effect on population growth. LAY SUMMARY Despite being listed under the Endangered Species Act for more than 30 yr, and intensive management, Piping Plovers on the Atlantic Coast have not met population recovery goals across much of their breeding range. Hurricane Sandy increased available nesting habitat (dry sand) by over 150%. Following Hurricane Sandy, we monitored a population of individually marked birds on Fire Island and West Hampton Island, New York, for 6 yr. The area monitored included restored habitat, to evaluate the effectiveness of Piping Plover targeted habitat management. The population increased 90% in the 6 yr following Hurricane Sandy, primarily because of immigrant adults, and local reproductive success. The reproductive output and population growth in restoration areas were similar to the rest of the study area. Overall, Hurricane Sandy habitat creation was positive for this local plover population. Efforts to allow future hurricane storm surges to create habitat, along with continued management, will improve long-term population persistence.

The estimation of abundance is fundamental to ecology and conservation but often is difficult or impossible to accomplish reliably. Recent improvements in wildlife cameras and ecological modelling have allowed for improved accuracy in estimates of abundance. In this study, we paired nest captures and high‐definition nest video camera monitoring with modelling for a novel approach to estimate survival and abundance of threatened Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus breeding on Missouri River sandbars. From 2005 to 2014, we captured individuals on nests and uniquely marked them and recaptured previously marked individuals. In 2015–2017, we resighted marked individuals using small, high‐definition video cameras deployed at nests, and counted the number of marked and unmarked breeding individuals associated with nests. We estimated apparent survival and derived estimates of the abundance of breeding individuals and population growth each year using a state‐space Jolly–Seber superpopulation model with the addition of a binomial band ratio model for data collected using nest video cameras. Apparent survival averaged 0.73 ± 0.03 (mean ± sd) throughout the study. The number of breeding individuals varied, with the population increasing from 2012 to 2017 following a major habitat creation event. This study provides one of the few examples of camera data being used to produce demographic parameter and abundance estimates for an avian species. The camera and modelling methods described in this study may be applicable to other avian species in which some portion of the breeding population is uniquely marked.

Density-dependent regulation is a fundamental part of ecological theory and a significant driver of animal demography often through complex feedback loops. We investigated the relationship between flood-and demographically induced fluctuations in density and the breeding propensity and survival of a pioneer species, the piping plover (plover, Charadrius melodus). We captured and marked adult and hatchling plovers on the Gavins Point Reach of the Missouri River in South Dakota and Nebraska, USA, from 2005 to 2014. In 2010 and 2011, historically high water levels and flooding inundated much of the plover's sandbar nesting habitat on theMissouri River. We developed a Bayesian formulation of a multievent model, or a multistate survival model with state uncertainty to estimate breeding propensity simultaneously with survival. Although plovers are conspicuous, their breeding status can be difficult to establish with certainty, which necessitated the use of uncertain states. With this model, we investigated the effect of sex, habitat availability, river flow, and density (birds/ ha nesting habitat) on survival of hatch year and breeding and non-breeding adult plovers. In addition, we estimated the transition rates for these age classes between breeding and nonbreeding states. Non-breeding adults ((phi) over bar (AHY, n) = 0.58 +/- 0.06) had lower survival rates than breeding adults (phi) over bar (AHY, b) = 0.80 +/- 0.04), and both breeding survival and breeding propensity decreased with increasing nesting density. Not only did survival and breeding propensity decrease directly at higher nest densities, but survival also was indirectly impacted by increasing the proportion of non-breeding birds with relatively low survival. Thus, plovers were regulated through a complex set of feedback loops, acting as densities increased. Our findings underscore the intricacy of density-dependent regulation and suggest that detailed demographic studies are needed to fully understand these effects.

The inverse relationship between body size and environmental temperature is a widespread ecogeographic pattern. However, the underlying forces that produce this pattern are unclear in many taxa. Expectations are particularly unclear for migratory species, as individuals may escape environmental extremes and reorient themselves along the environmental gradient. In addition, some aspects of body size are largely fixed while others are environmentally flexible and may vary seasonally. Here, we used a long‐term dataset that tracked multiple populations of the migratory piping plover Charadrius melodus across their breeding and non‐breeding ranges to investigate ecogeographic patterns of phenotypically flexible (body mass) and fixed (wing length) size traits in relation to latitude (Bergmann's Rule), environmental temperature (heat conservation hypothesis), and migratory distance. We found that body mass was correlated with both latitude and temperature across the breeding and non‐breeding ranges, which is consistent with predictions of Bergmann's Rule and heat conservation. However, wing length was correlated with latitude and temperature only on the breeding range. This discrepancy resulted from low migratory connectivity across seasons and the tendency for individuals with longer wings to migrate farther than those with shorter wings. Ultimately, these results suggest that wing length may be driven more by conditions experienced during the breeding season or tradeoffs related to migration, whereas body mass is modified by environmental conditions experienced throughout the annual lifecycle.

Integrated population models (IPMs) have become increasingly popular for the modelling of populations, as investigators seek to combine survey and demographic data to understand processes governing population dynamics. These models are particularly useful for identifying and exploring knowledge gaps within life histories, because they allow investigators to estimate biologically meaningful parameters, such as immigration or reproduction, that were previously unidentifiable without additional data. As IPMs have been developed relatively recently, there is much to learn about model behaviour. Behaviour of parameters, such as estimates near boundaries, and the consequences of varying degrees of dependency among datasets, has been explored. However, the reliability of parameter estimates remains underexamined, particularly when models include parameters that are not identifiable from one data source, but are indirectly identifiable from multiple datasets and a presumed model structure, such as the estimation of immigration using capture‐recapture, fecundity and count data, combined with a life‐history model. To examine the behaviour of model parameter estimates, we simulated stable populations closed to immigration and emigration. We simulated two scenarios that might induce error into survival estimates: marker induced bias in the capture–mark–recapture data and heterogeneity in the mortality process. We subsequently fit capture–mark–recapture, state‐space and fecundity models, as well as IPMs that estimated additional parameters. Simulation results suggested that when model assumptions are violated, estimation of additional, previously unidentifiable, parameters using IPMs may be extremely sensitive to these violations of model assumption. For example, when annual marker loss was simulated, estimates of survival rates were low and estimates of immigration rate from an IPM were high. When heterogeneity in the mortality process was induced, there were substantial relative differences between the medians of posterior distributions and truth for juvenile survival and fecundity. Our results have important implications for biological inference when using IPMs, as well as future model development and implementation. Specifically, using multiple datasets to identify additional parameters resulted in the posterior distributions of additional parameters directly reflecting the effects of the violations of model assumptions in integrated modelling frameworks. We suggest that investigators interpret posterior distributions of these parameters as a combination of biological process and systematic error.

Seabird demography and spatial distribution outside of the breeding season are poorly understood, and migratory stopover and staging sites represent important energetic bottlenecks during the avian annual cycle. We quantified hatch-year Roseate Tern (Sterna dougallii) weekly residency, weekly recruitment rate into the staging population, and derived weekly staging population growth rate during two postbreeding, premigratory staging seasons (2014 and 2015) at Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts, USA. We also estimated hatch-year tern stopover duration at Cape Cod staging grounds. Tern residency probability at Cape Cod National Seashore during 2014 and 2015 was nearly 1 during the first weeks of the season and decreased steadily over the last 4 weeks to -0.5 in the final week of the study. Recruitment rates into the staging population, representing the weekly per capita change in hatch-year terns present during the staging season, indicated that most terns arrived on the staging grounds during the first weeks of the staging season (16 July to 19 August). We also identified differences in staging duration between birds from the two breeding regions. Hatch-year terns from the southernmost region spent less time staging at Cape Cod National Seashore than their northern counterparts in both 2014 and 2015. These differences may indicate alternative staging strategies for individuals originating in different regions and possibly reveal differences in resource conditions between these areas, for example, in the availability of ephemeral prey fish.

Abstract Habitat selection and its relationship to fitness is a fundamental concept in ecology, but the mechanisms driving this connection are complex and difficult to detect. Despite the difficulties in understanding such intricate relationships, it is imperative that we study habitat selection and its relationship with fitness. We compared habitat selection of least terns (Sternula antillarum) and piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the Missouri River (2012–2014) to examine the consequences of those choices on nest and chick survival. We hypothesized that plovers and terns would select habitat that minimized the chance of flooding and predation of eggs, chicks, and adults, but that plovers would also select habitat that would provide foraging habitat for their chicks. We developed an integrated habitat selection model that assessed selection across multiple scales (sandbar and nest scales) and directly modeled the effect of selection on nest and chick survival. In general, the species selected habitat in keeping with our hypotheses, such that predation and flooding, in particular, may have been reduced. Sandbar selection had either a negative or no appreciable effect on nest survival for both species across years. Nest‐site selection in 2012 had a generally positive effect on nest survival and chick survival for both terns and plovers, and this trended toward a negative effect by 2014. This result suggested that early selection decisions appeared to be adaptive, but we speculate that relatively high site fidelity and habitat degradation led to reduced benefit over time. Our results highlight the complex nature of habitat selection and its relationship to fitness.