Across North America dairy processors are facing financial difficulties, yet a Canadian processor continues to grow through acquisitions of its competitors. This company, Saputo, grew up in a highly regulated marketplace where input raw milk supplies are restricted, input prices are inflated and imports of final product are restricted. This study asks if the Canadian system of dairy supply management prodded and assisted Saputo into making acquisitions at home and abroad. An empirical model estimates the probability of Saputo making acquisitions as a function of factors influenced by supply management and control variables accounting for Saputo's financial performance. The results indicate that cash flows, which may be increased by regulatory rents, and a measure of restrictiveness of the Canadian milk supply, both are statistically significant positive determinants of the probability that Saputo will make an acquisition. On average over the estimation period removing the Canadian supply managed regime would reduce the probability of acquisitions by 7%. The implication is that the Canadian system is losing investment and employment opportunities by retaining its restrictive regulatory system.

Agri-food supply chains in North America have become remarkably efficient, supplying an unprecedented variety of items at the lowest possible cost. However, the initial stages of the COVID-19 pandemic and the near-total temporary loss of the foodservice distribution channel, exposed a vulnerability that many found surprising. Instead of continued shortages, however, the agri-food sector has since moved back to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those typically observed in years prior to the pandemic. Ironically, the specialization in most food supply chains designed for "just-in-time" delivery to specific customers with no reserve capacity, which led to the initial disruptions, may have also been responsible for its rapid rebound. A common theme in assessing the impacts across the six commodities examined is the growing importance of understanding the whole supply chain. Over the longer term, a continuation of the pandemic could push the supply chain toward greater consolidation of firms and diversification of products given the increasing option value of maintaining flexibility. Other structural changes will be felt through input markets, most notably labour, as the trend toward greater automation will continue to accelerate as a response to meeting concerns about a consistent supply of healthy and productive workers. The economic fall out from the pandemic may lead to greater concentration in the sector as some firms are not able to survive the downturn and changes in consumer food buying behaviour, including movement toward online shopping and enhanced demand for attributes associated with resiliency, such as local. On the other hand, online shopping may provide opportunities for small producers and processors to shorten supply chains and reach customers directly. In the long term, COVID-19 impacts on global commerce and developing country production are more uncertain and could influence poverty reduction. While COVID-19's impacts on North American agriculture should have minimal effect on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) through food prices, the ongoing global trends in trade and agribusiness accelerated by the pandemic are relevant for achievement of the SDGs.

AbstractAfter a year of adjusting to the shocks associated with COVID‐19 the Canadian cattle and beef sector faces a relatively optimistic future. This note examines the past year for this supply chain from the perspective of the consumer up to the cow‐calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply responses. In the second quarter of 2020, the sector faced a significant challenge with continent wide shutdowns of beef packers reducing the U.S. beef supply by one‐third and Canadian beef slaughter by almost 60%. These shutdowns resulted in a sharp divergence between wholesale beef prices, which more than doubled, and fed steer prices, which declined by one third. Despite these dramatic shocks, the sector has returned to near normal conditions with prices and production levels similar to those observed prior to the pandemic. The near term prospects for 2021 are very similar to the current market situation.

The rapid growth of biofuel production has led to the food versus fuel dilemma, with studies showing that the use of crops as inputs drives up prices, volatility and volatility spillovers in food and fuel markets. Renewable identification numbers (RINs) are fuel credits that track and enforce compliance with U.S. renewable energy mandates, and may ameliorate price volatility disruptions and reduce spillovers. However, existing studies have largely ignored the relationship between RINs and price volatility. Using weekly spot price data over the period 2008-2018, we examine the impact of RINs on the volatility and market interdependence between the corn, ethanol, and oil markets. Through an asymmetric multivariate GARCH model, we find that the RIN market contributes to a reduction of volatility in the ethanol market, and also reduces volatility spillovers between corn and ethanol markets. Lastly, RINs weaken the market interdependence between ethanol and corn and ethanol and oil.

Supply management programs for Canada's dairy and poultry sectors are intended to reduce price volatility and provide fair returns for producers. However, the reduced risk and higher returns for these producers may contribute to higher farmland values. This paper estimates the impact of supply management on farmland values in the Canadian province of Ontario using a hedonic approach based on over 25,000 farmland sales. The results indicate that farmland values have been positively impacted by supply-managed livestock density. In addition, a recent policy change - a cap on the price of dairy quota - is found to further contribute to increased farmland values.

AbstractCanada's cattle/beef sector has already weathered a shock after a 2003 case of BSE resulted in closed borders and industry restructuring. Now, the sector has to adjust to similar shocks due to COVID‐19. This paper examines the supply chain from the consumer up to the cow–calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply response. A quarterly market model of North American cattle and beef markets is used to examine price and revenue impacts associated with the market disruptions. Depending on the scenario, there is considerable price and revenue suppression at all levels of the market.

Canada's cattle/beef sector has already weathered a shock after a 2003 case of BSE resulted in closed borders and industry restructuring. Now, the sector has to adjust to similar shocks due to COVID-19. This paper examines the supply chain from the consumer up to the cow–calf producer by considering consumer reactions, labor market constraints, and supply response. A quarterly market model of North American cattle and beef markets is used to examine price and revenue impacts associated with the market disruptions. Depending on the scenario, there is considerable price and revenue suppression at all levels of the market.

A trade restrictiveness index (TRI) aggregates an entire protection structure into a single uniform measure that is consistent with trade theory and reflects the extent of policy interventions on trade or welfare. Although there are several variants of a TRI, all approaches aggregate protective measures using weights that depend on import demand and export supply elasticities; some studies ignore cross-price effects while others account for them. This study measures the degree of bias introduced by ignoring cross effects. It provides a practical approach to account for demand- and supply-side cross-price effects in a multicommodity TRI setting. This approach is illustrated with a case study of distortions in the Canadian crop and livestock sector. Domestic demand and supply cross effects are approximated using a "constant differences of elasticities of substitution" functional form. On average, over the period 1996-2016, we find that cross-price effects do make a difference, and that including them makes the TRI 27% higher than an approach which ignores them. Furthermore, both TRI approaches produce indices that are higher and more variable than the OECD's percentage Producer Support Estimate (PSE) that measures policy transfers as a share of gross farm receipts. The fundamental differences between a TRI and PSE% is driven by market price support for milk.

A trade restrictiveness index (TRI) aggregates an entire protection structure into a single uniform measure that is consistent with trade theory and reflects the extent of policy interventions on trade or welfare. Although there are several variants of a TRI, all approaches aggregate protective measures using weights that depend on import demand and export supply elasticities; some studies ignore cross-price effects while others account for them. This study measures the degree of bias introduced by ignoring cross effects. It provides a practical approach to account for demand- and supply-side cross-price effects in a multi-commodity TRI setting. This approach is illustrated with a case study of distortions in the Canadian crop and livestock sector. Domestic demand and supply cross effects are approximated using a “ constant differences of elasticities of substitution” functional form. On average, over the period 1996–2016, we find that cross-price effects do make a difference, and that including them makes the TRI 27% higher than an approach which ignores them. Furthermore, both TRI approaches produce indices that are higher and more variable than the OECD's percentage Producer Support Estimate (PSE) that measures policy transfers as a share of gross farm receipts. The fundamental differences between a TRI and PSE% is driven by market price support for milk.

Price volatility complicates price discovery and creates risks for cattle producers. This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in the western Canadian beef cattle supply chain. A modified bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model is used to examine spillovers and account for asymmetries associated with rising versus falling markets. The spillovers that are found are unidirectional from input to output markets. Spillovers tended to be stronger when cattle prices are depressed and feed costs are rising. Volatility transmission is also flows from feed barley to feeder cattle markets, but volatility does not flow in the opposite direction nor does it advance by more than one level in the supply chain.

Environmental cross-compliance links agricultural program payments to producer commitments to achieve agri-environmental policy goals. The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of using cross-compliance to achieve environmental goals in a Canadian policy context. While Canadian policy makers have flirted with cross-compliance, with the exception of phosphorus regulations for Quebec hog farms, they have never adopted this approach. The potential for effective cross-compliance depends on producer participation, producer compliance with regulations, environmental performance, and overall welfare implications. This study reviews the application of cross-compliance in the United States and EU with regard to the potential application to Canadian agriculture. Policy options are considered which link current business risk management ( BRM ) programs to alternative environmental regulations (wildlife habitat preservation, nutrient management plans, and beneficial management practices for nutrient management). In general, individual Canadian agricultural support program do not provide sufficient incentives for farmers to participate in cross-compliance. However, if support programs are combined, it is better to link programs that redistribute income with environmental programs than to link agriculture programs that already address specific market failures.

Price volatility complicates price discovery and creates risks for cattle producers. This paper analyzes volatility spillovers in the western Canadian beef cattle supply chain. A modified bivariate VAR-BEKK-GARCH model is used to examine spillovers and account for asymmetries associated with rising versus falling markets. The spillovers that are found are unidirectional from input to output markets. Spillovers tended to be stronger when cattle prices are depressed and feed costs are rising. Volatility transmission is also flows from feed barley to feeder cattle markets, but volatility does not flow in the opposite direction nor does it advance by more than one level in the supply chain. La volatilité des prix complique la découverte des prix et crée des risques pour les éleveurs de bétail. Cet article analyse les répercussions de la volatilité au sein de la chaîne d'approvisionnement des bovins d'élevage. Un modèle VAR-BEKK-GARCH modifié à deux variables sert à l'examen des répercussions et tient compte des asymétries associées aux marchés à la hausse et à la baisse. Les répercussions décelées sont unidirectionnelles du marché des intrants aux produits. Les répercussions semblent plus fortes lorsque les prix des bovins sont bas, et les coûts de fourrage à la hausse. Le transfert de la volatilité se fait aussi sentir de l'orge de fourrage aux marchés de bovins d'engraissement, mais l'inverse ne survient pas et elle ne progresse pas de plus d'un niveau dans la chaîne d'approvisionnement.

Canadian ethanol production is currently derived from grain. Ethanol is criticized for displacing food production and not significantly reducing greenhouse gases. Second-generation ethanol from lignocellulosic feedstocks, such as fast-growing trees, are promoted as being more effective at reducing greenhouse gases without compromising food supplies. However, a second-generation ethanol industry may not be cost-effective with regard to greenhouse gas reduction. This study examines obstacles to a commercial second-generation ethanol industry, the potential for success, and the policy implications of promoting Canadian second-generation ethanol production.

Environmental cross-compliance links agricultural program payments to producer commitments to achieve agri-environmental policy goals. The objective of this study is to determine the feasibility of using cross-compliance to achieve environmental goals in a Canadian policy context. While Canadian policy makers have flirted with cross-compliance, with the exception of phosphorus regulations for Quebec hog farms, they have never adopted this approach. The potential for effective cross-compliance depends on producer participation, producer compliance with regulations, environmental performance, and overall welfare implications. This study reviews the application of cross-compliance in the United States and EU with regard to the potential application to Canadian agriculture. Policy options are considered which link current business risk management (BRM) programs to alternative environmental regulations (wildlife habitat preservation, nutrient management plans, and beneficial management practices for nutrient management). In general, individual Canadian agricultural support program do not provide sufficient incentives for farmers to participate in cross compliance. However, if support programs are combined, it is better to link programs that redistribute income, with environmental programs, than to link agriculture programs that already address specific market failures.

This paper reviews annual government spending on Canadian agriculture that attempts to stabilize and enhance farm incomes. Over the past 5 years, 2/3 of the $3 billion spent on agriculture went into stabilization programs to support farm incomes. However, this level of support raises questions about the environmental consequences of enhanced agricultural production. Environmental impacts from agriculture are well known and addressed in US and EU policies. In contrast, Canadian government expenditures on environmental initiatives in agriculture, as a share of farm income, are more than 10 times smaller than those in the US and the EU. Nonetheless the evidence is that Canadian programs have modest impacts on production, but that chemical and fertilizer input use may be higher than in the absence of the program. One possible course of action is to introduce cross-compliance between program payments and environmental objectives. However, there are no requirements that Canadian producers receiving support comply with environmental standards. While cross-compliance could be considered in the Canadian context, policies that directly target specific environmental issues in agriculture may have greater impact.

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the impact of mandatory Country of Origin Labeling on American imports of Canadian hogs and pork by testing for structural change. Given the uncertainties over the timing of the implementation and reform of COOL, we implement statistical procedures that endogenously test for structural change over multiple time periods. We find evidence that COOL has impacted U.S./Canada feeder and slaughter hog trade flows. In contrast, we found no evidence of structural change for pork trade flows that could be associated with COOL. [EconLit citations: Q17; C12].

Mandatory country of origin labeling (COOL) has become a thorny issue in U.S.–Canada bilateral trade relations. We undertake an ex post investigation of the impact of the law on U.S. imports of Canadian beef, feeder, and fed cattle. Using a partial equilibrium framework, we derive U.S. import demand equations for Canadian cattle and beef, and employ the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) procedure for detecting multiple structural breaks with break points being endogenously determined. We find evidence that COOL may have caused significant structural change in U.S. imports of Canadian feeder and fed cattle.L’étiquetage du pays d'origine obligatoire est devenu un sujet épineux des relations commerciales entre le Canada et les États‐Unis. Dans la présente étude, nous effectuons une analyse ex post des répercussions de la Loi sur les importations américaines de viande de bœuf, de bovins d'engraissement et de bovins finis. À l'aide d'un modèle d’équilibre partiel, nous avons dérivé des équations de demande d'importation de bovins et de viande de bœuf de la part des États‐Unis et nous avons utilisé les tests de Bai et Perron (1998, 2003) pour déceler les ruptures structurelles multiples, dont les points de rupture ont été déterminés de façon endogène. Les résultats de notre étude montrent que l’étiquetage du pays d'origine peut avoir causé un changement structurel considérable sur les importations de bovins d'engraissement et de bovins finis.

Mandatory country of origin labeling (COOL) has become a thorny issue in U.S.–Canada bilateral trade relations. We undertake an ex post investigation of the impact of the law on U.S. imports of Canadian beef, feeder, and fed cattle. Using a partial equilibrium framework, we derive U.S. import demand equations for Canadian cattle and beef, and employ the Bai and Perron (1998, 2003) procedure for detecting multiple structural breaks with break points being endogenously determined. We find evidence that COOL may have caused significant structural change in U.S. imports of Canadian feeder and fed cattle. L’étiquetage du pays d'origine obligatoire est devenu un sujet épineux des relations commerciales entre le Canada et les États-Unis. Dans la présente étude, nous effectuons une analyse ex post des répercussions de la Loi sur les importations américaines de viande de bœuf, de bovins d'engraissement et de bovins finis. À l'aide d'un modèle d’équilibre partiel, nous avons dérivé des équations de demande d'importation de bovins et de viande de bœuf de la part des États-Unis et nous avons utilisé les tests de Bai et Perron (1998, 2003) pour déceler les ruptures structurelles multiples, dont les points de rupture ont été déterminés de façon endogène. Les résultats de notre étude montrent que l’étiquetage du pays d'origine peut avoir causé un changement structurel considérable sur les importations de bovins d'engraissement et de bovins finis.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to evaluate Alberta’s cattle loan guarantee program. It measures the risk premiums on lending that would accrue to banks participating in the program, estimates the value (price) of the loan guarantee, and estimates the interest subsidy provided by the program. Design/methodology/approach – A cash flow model of cattle feeding is used. The model estimates a measure of risk that is applied to option pricing models to estimate the value of the guarantee. Findings – Insurance premiums for the credit risk to lenders are 0.20 percent of the value of the loan for the entire feeding period, and 0.41 percent for backgrounding but negligible for finishing. The price of the loan guarantee estimated by the Black-Scholes model is 4.43 percent of the value of the loan and is comparable to prices estimated by the binomial model. The program provides a subsidy rate of 4.58 percent. Research limitations/implications – Charging a guarantee fee can potentially eliminate the interest subsidy inherent in the program. But this would necessitate determining the impact of the guarantee fee on the additional access to credit that has been achieved through the program. Practical implications – Different levels of risk for backgrounding and finishing imply different risk premiums on cattle loans. Therefore interest on cattle loans should reflect not only the individual farmer’s risk profile but also the nature of the feeding operation. Originality/value – This is the first paper to simultaneously estimate risk premiums on cattle feeding loans, the value of the loan guarantee provided by the Alberta Feeder Association Loan Guarantee Program, and the inherent interest subsidy.