23 Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and 24 recently revised datasets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as 25 measured by Equivalent Effective Stratospheric Chlorine EESC) maximised in the second half of 26 the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is 27 discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in EESC trend, though no 28 3 attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~45 km, 4 hPa) are found to 1 be -5 to -10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to -5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends 2 are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower 3 stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However it is hard to be 4 categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer 5 measurements; (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed 6 by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported 7 previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have 8 been revised. 9 There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is 10 a hint of an average positive trend of ~2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~3% per decade in the 11 tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the 12 independence of the trend estimates found from different datasets. The averaged upward trends are 13 significant if the trends derived from various datasets are assumed to be independent (as in WMO, 14 2014), but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This arises because many 15 of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged dataset. At this point it is 16 not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone 17 observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as 18 (i) more years are added to the observational record; (ii) further improvements are made to the 19 historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development); and (iii) the data merging techniques 20 are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties. 21
Trends in the vertical distribution of ozone are reported and compared for a number of new and recently revised data sets. The amount of ozone-depleting compounds in the stratosphere (as measured by equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine – EESC) was maximised in the second half of the 1990s. We examine the periods before and after the peak to see if any change in trend is discernible in the ozone record that might be attributable to a change in the EESC trend, though no attribution is attempted. Prior to 1998, trends in the upper stratosphere (~ 45 km, 4 hPa) are found to be −5 to −10 % per decade at mid-latitudes and closer to −5 % per decade in the tropics. No trends are found in the mid-stratosphere (28 km, 30 hPa). Negative trends are seen in the lower stratosphere at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres and in the deep tropics. However, it is hard to be categorical about the trends in the lower stratosphere for three reasons: (i) there are fewer measurements, (ii) the data quality is poorer, and (iii) the measurements in the 1990s are perturbed by aerosols from the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991. These findings are similar to those reported previously even though the measurements for the main satellite and ground-based records have been revised. There is no sign of a continued negative trend in the upper stratosphere since 1998: instead there is a hint of an average positive trend of ~ 2 % per decade in mid-latitudes and ~ 3 % per decade in the tropics. The significance of these upward trends is investigated using different assumptions of the independence of the trend estimates found from different data sets. The averaged upward trends are significant if the trends derived from various data sets are assumed to be independent (as in Pawson et al., 2014) but are generally not significant if the trends are not independent. This occurs because many of the underlying measurement records are used in more than one merged data set. At this point it is not possible to say which assumption is best. Including an estimate of the drift of the overall ozone observing system decreases the significance of the trends. The significance will become clearer as (i) more years are added to the observational record, (ii) further improvements are made to the historic ozone record (e.g. through algorithm development), and (iii) the data merging techniques are refined, particularly through a more rigorous treatment of uncertainties.
In the framework of the SI2N (SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate)/IO3C (International Ozone Commission)/IGACO-O3 (Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations – Ozone)/NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change)) initiative, several long-term vertically resolved merged ozone data sets produced from satellite measurements have been analysed and compared. This paper presents an overview of the methods, assumptions, and challenges involved in constructing such merged data sets, as well as the first thorough intercomparison of seven new long-term satellite data sets. The analysis focuses on the representation of the annual cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends for the period 1984–2011, which is common to all data sets. Overall, the best agreement amongst data sets is seen in the mid-latitude lower and middle stratosphere, with larger differences in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the upper stratosphere globally. In most cases, differences in the choice of underlying instrument records that were merged produced larger differences between data sets than the use of different merging techniques. Long-term ozone trends were calculated for the period 1984–2011 using a piecewise linear regression with a change in trend prescribed at the end of 1997. For the 1984–1997 period, trends tend to be most similar between data sets (with largest negative trends ranging from −4 to −8% decade−1 in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere), in large part due to the fact that most data sets are predominantly (or only) based on the SAGE-II record. Trends in the middle and lower stratosphere are much smaller, and, particularly for the lower stratosphere, large uncertainties remain. For the later period (1998–2011), trends vary to a greater extent, ranging from approximately −1 to +5% decade−1 in the upper stratosphere. Again, middle and lower stratospheric trends are smaller and for most data sets not significantly different from zero. Overall, however, there is a clear shift from mostly negative to mostly positive trends between the two periods over much of the profile.
Analyses of stratospheric ozone data determined from Dobson–Umkehr measurements since 1977 at the Syowa (69.0° S, 39.6° E), Antarctica, station show a significant decrease in ozone at altitudes higher than that of the 4 hPa pressure level during the 1980s and 1990s. Ozone values over Syowa have remained low since 2001. The time series of upper stratospheric ozone from the homogenized NOAA SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet Instrument)(/2) 8.6 overpass data (±4°, 24 h) are in qualitative agreement with those from the Syowa station data. Ozone recovery during the austral spring over the Syowa station appears to be slower than predicted by the equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) curve. The long-term changes in the station's equivalent latitude (indicative of vortex size/position in winter and spring) are derived from MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications) reanalyses at ~ 2 and ~ 50 hPa. These data are used to attribute some of the upper and middle stratospheric ozone changes to the changes in vortex position relative to the station's location. In addition, high correlation of the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) with polar upper stratospheric ozone during years of maximum solar activity points toward a strong relationship between the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation and the polar stratospheric ozone recovery. In the lower stratosphere, ozone recovery attributable to CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) is still not definitive, whereas the recovery of the upper stratosphere is slower than predicted. Further research indicates that dynamical and other chemical changes in the atmosphere are delaying detection of recovery over this station.
Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other ozone depleting substance (ODS) concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical) and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N) Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based) available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument). Archive location information for each data set is also given.
Abstract. Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) and other ozone depleting substance (ODS) concentrations were reached in the mid to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical) and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)/World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N) initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground- and satellite-based) available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument). Archive location information is for each data set is also given.