This paper brings together evidence and data from recently published material to provide an overview of current thinking on leisure consumer trends and their implications for leisure property. The paper looks at: UK consumer spending trends in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks; expectations for economic growth over the short and medium term; and latest thinking about trends that will shape leisure preferences, lifestyles and destinations in the long term.

Closure of four multiplex cinemas in the UK during 2001 fuelled market speculation that the UK cinema sector is facing ‘meltdown’. Such a scenario has potentially disastrous consequences for leisure park investments, for which multiplexes have so far been the only realistic anchor tenant. This paper examines recently published data to assess whether these fears are indeed justified. The current situation is examined within the context of long-term trends in consumer demand and the evolution of multiplex development together with published forecasts of cinema visits and screens up to 2005.

Against a background of growing fears about a US-led global recession, this paper examines the latest UK data on consumers' expenditure, as an indicator of the overall health of the leisure consumer market. Key differences from the overall picture are identified for those activities that are typically found in commercial leisure properties. It is then argued that quantitative trends in consumer expenditure need to be viewed alongside evolving patterns of consumer behaviour, which will influence how and where consumers decide to spend money on leisure activities in the future.

Continuing shifts in the structure and direction of leisure operator markets are causing considerable turbulence in the occupational demand for leisure property. It is argued here that ‘leisure’ is not one easy-to-read sector but comprises several specialised markets. The situation is made even more difficult for property investors by the constantly changing corporate landscape in leisure, as operators juggle their portfolios in order to meet City expectations for larger and more focused companies. Equally, though, the fast-moving, fashion-driven nature of leisure continues to create demand for new space and formats. The paper reviews current trends in key occupier markets and discusses emerging evidence on leisure rental growth in the light of these trends.

This paper examines trends in leisure property markets, as revealed in the limited published statistics available. Recent trends support the strong interest in leisure shown by property investors. However, it is suggested that the market is about to enter a more uncertain period. To retain investor confidence, it is argued, improved market transparency will be required in the form of performance benchmarks. It is hoped that IPD and surveying practices will publish more and better data in future.