Understanding how thermal comfort and heat stress have evolved under a warming climate is essential for assessing risks to human health and ecosystems, as well as for informed regional planning. This study aims to provide a high-resolution assessment of thermal comfort conditions and their evolution across the Iberian Peninsula (IP), characterized by complex topography and coastal–inland contrasts, from 1985 to 2020, using the Copernicus European Regional ReAnalysis (CERRA) dataset. Thermal extremes were characterized using summer days (SU), scorching days (SU35), tropical nights (TR), torrid nights (TR25), and the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), to evaluate spatial and temporal variations in heat-related stress during the northern hemisphere summer season (from June to September). Results revealed a clear intensification of thermal extremes, particularly in inland and southern regions. The frequency of hot days and warm nights has increased significantly, indicating a growing exposure to both daytime and nocturnal heat stress. Compound indicators (SU + TR and SU35 + TR25) exhibit a moderate yet consistent increase in the combined occurrence of hot days and nights, underscoring the persistence of extreme heat events. The EHF analysis revealed strong regional contrasts in heatwave intensity and duration, with the highest mean and maximum EHF values occurring over northeastern and western IP, and notable upward trends in frequency and duration in the south and east regions. Overall, these findings highlight the increasing risk of prolonged and more intense heatwaves, reinforcing the need for adaptive planning in public health, infrastructure resilience, and climate adaptation policies at regional and local scales. In this study, summer thermal comfort and heat-stress conditions across the Iberian Peninsula (IP) were assessed using the Copernicus European Regional ReAnalysis (CERRA) dataset for the 1985 − 2020 period. Thermal extremes were characterized for the summer season (June−September) using indices for hot days and warm nights (SU, SU35, TR, TR25), compound day−night occurrences (SU + TR and SU35 + TR25), and the Excess Heat Factor (EHF) to quantify heatwave intensity, frequency, and duration. Spatial patterns and temporal trends were mapped to identify regional hotspots and evolving exposure. Results indicate a clear intensification of thermal extremes, most pronounced in inland and southern areas, alongside increasing concurrence of hot days and warm nights. EHF highlights strong regional contrasts in heatwave patterns, with increasing frequency and duration in the central and eastern regions. The graphical abstract summarizes the workflow and the main outcomes relevant to public health planning, infrastructure resilience, and climate adaptation strategies. Summer days and tropical nights show solid upward trends since 1985. Compound heat events are becoming more common, pointing to more persistent events. EHF trends show longer and more intense heatwaves, especially in central and eastern areas. EHF reveals sharp regional contrasts in heatwave severity, supporting targeted adaptation planning.

Reference evapotranspiration is a key element in agricultural management, particularly in a changing global environment, and represents an important requirement for the effective planning, monitoring, and management of water resources. However, accurate evapotranspiration estimation requires spatially well-distributed continuous meteorological data to capture regional variations, and reanalysis datasets are valuable tools for this purpose. In this context, this study aimed to assess the performance of the Copernicus European Regional ReAnalysis (CERRA) dataset in the western Iberian Peninsula, focusing on Portugal and Galicia (Spain). Meteorological data (air temperature, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed) from several surface stations were used to analyze the differences between the observations and CERRA hindcasts. The reference evapotranspiration (ETo) was then computed for both datasets to estimate CERRA’s consistency and accuracy. The results revealed that CERRA data strongly correlated with the observational data, accurately capturing the spatial and temporal atmospheric patterns. Daily air temperature was the most accurately represented variable, followed by relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed. ETo estimates from the CERRA dataset were closely aligned with observations. The high spatial resolution of CERRA enabled an accurate representation of the regional climatic variations, addressing the weaknesses found in other reanalysis datasets, particularly in coastal areas influenced by land‒sea interactions. The findings of this study indicate that CERRA is a highly valuable database for climate studies to validate the results of regional climate models with high resolution. These models are essential for developing effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to address agricultural planning and management in response to climate-related challenges. In this study, the performance of the Copernicus European Regional ReAnalysis (CERRA) dataset in replicating atmospheric variables and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) for agrometeorological applications in the western Iberian Peninsula was assessed. CERRA hindcasts were compared with meteorological observations (minimum and maximum air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation) from surface stations using Taylor diagrams, box plots, scatter plots, and the Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) metric for validation. The ETo was subsequently computed for both datasets. The results indicate strong correlations between CERRA and observational data, with CERRA effectively reproducing spatial and temporal patterns. ETo estimates from the CERRA dataset closely align with observations. This study emphasizes the ability of CERRA to accurately represent regional climatic variations because of its high spatial resolution, overcoming the limitations of other reanalysis datasets, particularly in coastal zones. The results suggest that CERRA is a valuable asset for climate studies, validation of high-resolution regional climate models, water resource management, and agricultural planning. CERRA captures the atmospheric and reference evapotranspiration patterns across the western Iberian Peninsula. Air temperature is the most accurate reanalysis variable, and wind speed is the least accurate. CERRA performs robustly in areas with complex topography. CERRA addresses gaps identified in other reanalysis datasets with lower resolution. CERRA is a valuable asset for water resource management and agricultural planning.

Reproduction of hydrodynamic and hydrologic processes in complex coastal lagoons requires the development and calibration of linked numerical model implementations, that can show accuracy even in extreme weather scenarios. To achieve that, robust datasets for a wide variety of parameters are needed to validate the model. This study aimed to develop and validate a hydrodynamic model linked to a groundwater and a watershed model, for the microtidal Mar Menor coastal lagoon located in the southeastern Spain. Special concern was given to flash flood events, which, although infrequent, are proved to trigger mass mortality of species inside the lagoon. To achieve that, a ROMS numerical implementation was developed and linked to atmospheric (HARMONIE-AROME), groundwater (SUTRA), and watershed (TETIS) models. The model results were compared with a robust dataset with hydrodynamic, salinity, and water temperature data. Special attention was given to the September 2019 Cut-off Low (CoL) flash flood event. The model demonstrated high accuracy in reproducing the lagoon’s dynamics under normal conditions, including the currents in the narrow inlets connecting the lagoon with the Mediterranean Sea. After the CoL event, an extraordinary hydrological scenario developed — characterized by strong vertical stratification that persisted for over a month — explained by the lack of sufficient shear instability to overcome buoyancy forces induced by density gradients, despite the occurrence of a two-layer opposite direction flow. Runoff associated with the CoL event also led to a nearly 20 % reduction in the lagoon’s Water Renewal Time.

Accurate assessment of salt marsh dynamics is crucial to reverse their widespread decline. Previous modelling studies investigated the resilience to mean sea level rise, ignoring the tidal dynamics observed in many estuaries. Building on the principle that salt marsh occurrence is determined by soil elevation relative to tidal datums, this study aims to map the current extent of salt marshes and project their long-term evolution by combining high-resolution LiDAR data with spatially varying tidal datums. The Ria de Aveiro, a lagoon undergoing tidal amplification, was used as a case study. A simplified, rule-based model of long-term marsh evolution was developed, in which vertical accretion is derived endogenously as a function of tidal datums. It was validated in hindcast mode by reconstructing the 1987 marsh extent, and applied to project marsh dynamics to 2100. A Monte Carlo analysis quantified the projection uncertainty and disentangled the influence of accretion from that of the datum variability. The soil elevation–datum relationship proved effective for mapping, yielding an overall accuracy of 90.3%. The model reproduced the 1987 extent and captured a 26% decline in marsh area between 1987 and 2024 (from 34.8 to 25.7 km2). This decline is projected to continue through 2100, reaching a median area of 17.5 km2, partly due to anthropogenic barriers that impede landward migration. The projected area is controlled by accretion, with datum variability becoming decisive in the inner regions. Future research should apply this model to other estuarine systems, especially those with salt marshes threatened by tidal amplification.

Climate change has intensified extreme temperature events (ETEs), jeopardizing water resources, agriculture, and human health. Monitoring surface air temperature with comprehensive datasets is crucial, given the spatial and temporal limitations of in situ data. This study evaluates the recent Copernicus European Regional Reanalysis (CERRA) product to investigate unusually high (heatwaves) or low (cold spells) temperatures over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) during two extended seasons. The assessment was performed with daily maximum and minimum air temperatures from 12 stations in mainland Portugal for 2000−2020, and from a high-resolution gridded dataset covering continental Spain and the Balearic Islands for 1985−2020. Several metrics describing the number, frequency, duration, amplitude, and magnitude of hot and cold extreme events were assessed. CERRA exhibits good performance, with a cold bias for maximum and a warm bias for minimum air temperature. It tends to underestimate the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, Nevertheless, both the observations and CERRA identify the southwestern and interior regions of the IP as the most impacted whereas northern and coastal areas experience fewer and weaker heatwaves. Regarding cold spells, CERRA reproduces the general spatial gradient and the effects of orography, though it slightly underestimates their intensity and duration. The study of ETEs is highly relevant to the IP economy, especially agriculture, health, energy, and tourism, making their understanding crucial for mitigation and adaptation. The ability of CERRA to capture key ETEs features makes it a valuable dataset for evaluating health or agricultural models for the IP.

Climate change will have far-reaching consequences on the environment, primary production, the economy, and society as a whole. Changes in hydrodynamic patterns pose a significant threat to low-lying coastal areas that often present high economic and biological value. The Ria de Vigo is part of the Rias Baixas, which are located in the NW of the Iberian Peninsula. This system, as well as the rest of the Galician coast, is an area of high primary production that is vulnerable to changes in hydrodynamics induced by climate change. These changes could have a detrimental effect on the system and the local communities as they strongly depend on the income brought by aquaculture, and therefore this study aims to understand how climate change will affect the thermohaline properties in the Ria de Vigo. To better understand these impacts, a hydrodynamic model of the Rias Baixas was implemented to analyse the effect of climate change on the Ria de Vigo’s thermohaline properties. The methodology followed consisted of the application of the Delft3D three-dimensional numerical model in the Rias Baixas and the adjacent ocean with variables obtained from global and regional climate models, in future scenarios provided by CMIP6. This was done for the summer season and for two scenarios, the present-day and CMIP6’s SSP5-8.5 future scenario. The results show that the water temperature in the Ria will increase in the future due to climate change, and it tended to be higher at the surface and lower at the bottom due to the intrusion of oceanic water from the Eastern North Atlantic Central Water (ENAWC). The salinity is expected to decrease and will be highest in the bottom layer near the connection with the ocean, and lowest in the surface layers and near the river, in the latter case, due to freshwater discharges. The density presented similar patterns, also decreasing in the future, and showing the expected stratification associated with the upwelling season.

Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) have been the focus of numerous studies due to the dramatic consequences they can have on coastal systems. However, Marine Cold Spells (MCSs) can also have harmful effects on the environment while play an important role in the context of global warming. Yet, there is lack of information on the physical attributes and long-term changes of MCSs. This study aims to investigate and compare the features and patterns of both MHWs and MCSs along the Western Iberian Coast (WIC) and its estuaries using satellite-derived Sea Surface Temperatures between 1982 and 2022. Overall, the WIC registered more MCSs than MHWs, although with lower intensities. The coastal region between Minho and Douro Estuaries and Cape São Vicente were favorable for MCSs development. The coastal regions of Minho through Aveiro and the south coast of Portugal registered MCSs and MHWs with the highest average and maximum intensities. No significant trends were observed for MHWs and MCSs features throughout the WIC. MHWs (MCSs) events were found to have been increasing (decreasing) offshore. However, an increase was registered near the coastline for MCS (0.06 events/year). Increased seasonal upwelling could be contributing to mask the development of MHWs and enhance MCSs.

Within the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030) framework, a Nature-based Solution (NbS) using Zostera noltei transplants was tested to restore a historically contaminated intertidal area. In-situ transplantation relied on patches of seagrass and sediment from a Donor meadow and its evolution was monitored for two years. The evaluation of the transplant success encompassed the seagrass coverage area, seagrass biomass, tissue mercury (Hg) accumulation, and photosynthetic efficiency. The transplant was successful, with gradual increases in the coverage area in the target area indicating adaptation to local conditions already after the first year. Although some significant differences were observed in biomass and tissue Hg concentration over time, the similar translocation factors suggest the plant has effective defensive mechanisms to prevent accumulation and cellular damage. Additionally, the normal seasonal pattern of photosynthetic parameters indicates that contamination is not impeding its photosynthetic performance and growth, suggesting this NbS as a viable restoration strategy.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) represent a significant threat to marine ecosystems, particularly in vital fisheries regions such as the Portuguese coast. Understanding MHW dynamics at a finer spatial scale is essential for comprehending their impacts on the ecosystems. This study addresses this gap by analyzing historical MHW events from 1982 to 2023 and projecting future scenarios based on different greenhouse gas emission pathways. The primary objective is to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of MHWs along the Portuguese coast and understand their temporal evolution. Using historical sea surface temperature (SST) data, MHW metrics were analyzed across various coastal regions. Future projections, utilizing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 245 and SSP 585, assessed changes in MHW frequency, duration, and intensity in the near future (2024-2060) and far future (2061-2100). Results indicate no significant spatial differences in average annual MHW metrics among study areas, but significant temporal variations were observed. The progression of MHW metrics is often more than twice as fast in the slopes and southern areas compared to the west shelf. Record-breaking MHW events in 2023 were consistent with global trends, highlighting a positive linear correlation between historical warming and increased MHW metrics. Projections under SSP 585 indicate a 2.5 to 4.5-fold increase in the annual number of MHW events, lasting 1 to 3 months, with nearly year-round MHW conditions by 2100, reaching peak intensities of 10.7 °C. These findings highlight the need for climate action to mitigate the impacts of intensified MHWs on coastal ecosystems. This research provides foundational insights into MHW dynamics along the Portuguese coast, laying the groundwork for future studies and highlighting the implications of climate change on marine environments.

Offshore wind energy represents one of the key contributors to the upcoming energy transition in the European energy sector. To ensure efficient operation, offshore wind turbines require management and maintenance planning that could benefit from using autonomous Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). In this context, this study aims to analyze the wind conditions for safe drone operation in a potential offshore wind farm on the Spanish Northwest Coast. Wind data from the CERRA model was assessed against METEOGALICIA hindcasts for 1985-2020 at 3-h intervals (9h, 12h, 15h, and 18h) since these activities cannot be performed at night. Subsequently, this data was used to estimate the number of days with favorable conditions for the deployment of UAVs in operational and maintenance activities assuming that, on average, wind speed could not exceed 10 m center dot s-1. Results showed that CERRA accurately reproduces the wind speed and directional frequency patterns in the wind farm area. During autumn and winter, three-day operational windows occurred in the highest percentage. October presented the highest number of operable days, and December the lowest. The methodology used in this study may be applied to economic feasibility studies for offshore wind farms, considering local wind patterns and maintenance needs.

Salt marshes are fragile coastal ecosystems that provide a wide range of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration and storage. Despite the importance of salt marshes for blue carbon sequestration, few studies have been done on blue carbon monitoring using satellite remote sensing techniques. This study arose to fill this knowledge gap, and aimed to determine the amount of blue carbon sequestered in salt marshes by analyzing the particular case of the Pancas salt marsh (Tagus Estuary, Portugal). To achieve this, the extent and condition of the Pancas salt marsh were assessed using remote sensing methods, by establishing a methodology that effectively identified and validated its extent based on Sentinel-2 imagery from 2016 to 2022. This method involves generating a reference salt marsh extent map followed by mapping salt marsh extent through four Vegetation Indices (VI) from Sentinel-2 data to compare and thus validate the salt marsh extent based on the information provided by the satellite. Considering the extent of the salt marsh and the changes it has undergone over the 7 years studied, together with reference values for sequestered carbon in the salt marsh sediments, approximate values for sequestered blue carbon were determined. The results highlighted the validation of Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as the best-performing VI for this study and as a proxy for the condition of the salt marsh in terms of the spatial and temporal distribution of its aboveground biomass. It was also verified that the salt marsh expanded its frontal region by 0.22 km2 between 2016 and 2022, while certain areas of high marsh have suffered dieback. Concerning sequestered carbon, an increase of 508.2 tonnes since 2016 was quantified, corresponding to 66500 tonnes of blue carbon stored for 2022. Our study revealed the intrinsic relationship between the extent of a salt marsh and its carbon sequestration capacity highlighting the importance of future application of more remote sensing techniques, to emphasize the significant role of these ecosystems in carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation.

The heightened occurrence of marine heatwaves (MHWs) attributed to climate change has garnered significant attention, primarily due to its profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, recognized as high-productivity oceanic areas, have emerged as crucial thermal refuges mitigating the effects of global warming, thereby safeguarding marine fauna and flora. Acknowledging the synergies between MHWs and upwelling becomes pivotal in this context. The main objective of this study is to assess the unprecedented extreme SSTs observed in the North Atlantic Ocean throughout 2023 which represent a departure from the norms observed in the past 40 years of satellite data, resulting in quasi-permanent MHW conditions. Additionally, the investigation aims to delineate the influence of upwelling on the disparities between oceanic and coastal SST throughout the Canary Upwelling System. For this purpose, SST and wind data from OISST ¼ and ERA5 databases, respectively, have been used to calculate SST extremes and differences between coast and ocean as well as Upwelling Index (UI) values from 1982 to 2023. Despite the overall increase in oceanic and nearshore SST during 2023, substantial differences between coastal and oceanic temperatures were noted compared to the 1982-2023 period average. Moreover, distinct upwelling regimes along the Canary Upwelling System exhibited discernible variations in the impact of upwelling on coastal SST. Nonetheless, the influence of upwelling mitigated warming nearshore more effectively than offshore, underscoring its capacity to modulate climate change impacts, even under the extreme SST conditions arising from the unprecedented 2023.

Droughts are important natural hazards that occur worldwide and can have severe and long-lasting impacts on humans and ecosystems. These phenomena are usually quantified by means of the so-called drought indices, which are indirect indicators based on climatic information. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is one of the most widely used indexes and this study attempts to characterize the occurrence and spatial variability of this index in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) over the 21st century. The SPI was calculated at two time scales (3 and 12 months), using simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project under two future scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to analyze meteorological and hydrological droughts. Meteorological droughts (SPI-3) are expected to be less frequent but more intense and durable in the eastern IP, intensifying throughout the century and for the RCP 8.5 scenario. In the first decades of the 21st century, hydrological droughts (SPI-12) are projected to be more common and severe in the northwestern region of the IP for the RCP 4.5, and less frequent but more lasting in the other regions of IP for the RCP 8.5. As the century passes, the drought frequency and intensity experience a decrease in the RCP 4.5 scenario, and a slight increase in the RCP 8.5 scenario.

Drought can be considered an atmospheric condition, which rapidly goes beyond to affect multiple fields of the environment and human activities. The persistence of these atmospheric conditions can affect the recharge of surface and groundwater bodies due to a decrease in the volume of runoff and seepage, thus affecting human and environmental activities. In this context, the main aim of this work is to characterize the occurrence and variability of future droughts in Galicia over the twenty-first century. The methodology followed is based on the calculation and analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in three-time scales (3, 6, and 12 months), using daily outputs of precipitation data from one RCM provided by the EURO-CORDEX project for different periods (reference from 1971 to 2005, and future from 2025 to 2060 and 2061 to 2096) and scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Using SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12 projections, drought trends and potential changes in their characteristics were explored under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. In both scenarios, throughout the twenty-first century, a decreasing trend in SPI indicates an intensification of drought conditions over Galicia. Moreover, at the beginning of the century, under RCP 4.5, drought events will increase and will be slightly more intense but less persistent, while under RCP 8.5, the number of events will be almost the same, but shorter and less severe. Toward the end of the century, drought events are expected to be more numerous, less durable, and more intense under both scenarios.

Estuaries are among the most sensitive systems to climate change. Previous studies have suggested that the Sado Estuary (Portugal) has decreasing trends for water temperature, which is uncommon in a global warming scenario. However, no long-term analysis regarding water column conditions has been conducted on this estuary to date. Therefore, the main aim of this study is to understand if and how the properties of this estuary have changed, considering a 34-year trend analysis and an assessment of their main drivers. Water temperature significantly decreased (up to 0.04 °C/year) along with chlorophyll a. Salinity increased and nutrients displayed an overall decrease. These trends were potentially driven by higher influence of upwelled water combined with a reduction of the river flow. Sado appears to have a lower vulnerability to climate change than other estuaries as it does not show a high sensitivity to changes in its water column physicochemical properties.

EDITORIAL article Front. Mar. Sci., 23 January 2024Sec. Coastal Ocean Processes Volume 11 - 2024 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2024.1367378

Sea level rise is challenging for coastal communities and land management decision makers. Understanding the patterns of regional variations at different temporal and spatial scales is key to implement adaptation plans that mitigate the local impacts of sea level rise. In this study, in situ observations from 14 tide gauges were complemented with satellite altimetry data to assess seasonality, multidecadal variability and long-term trends in mean sea level around the Western Iberian Coast (WIC) and the Portuguese archipelagos (Azores and Madeira). Results show varying spatial seasonal patterns between regions, with minimum (maximum) sea level observed in April (September) at the islands and minimum (maximum) observed in July (November) at the WIC. The influence of coastal upwelling on the seasonal mean sea level variations was detected over mainland. Although the influence of atmospheric patterns was observed on sea level inter-annual variability, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) showed a greater correlation with the sea level inter-decadal patterns. Finally, the trend analysis confirmed widespread sea level rise along the mainland and around the islands, which has intensified in recent decades. The regions of La Coru & ntilde;a and Cascais showed trends that were similar to the global average sea level rise since 1993, but the mainland regional average pointed to lower rates of rise (2.00 +/- 0.06 mm/year). This work reinforces the need for long-term monitoring networks of sea level, ensuring the vertical stability of instruments and platforms. The implementation of regional adaptation plans to sea level rise is deeply dependent on high quality information. Sea level is rising worldwide, and coastal communities are starting to have to deal with the effects of such change. However, the rate of sea level rise changes geographically and with time, so it is important to understand regional sea level variations, as it is what local communities directly experience. Important knowledge gaps remained regarding sea level variability along the Western Iberian Coast (WIC) and the Portuguese Islands. To overcome these, 14 long time series of sea level observations were used along with satellite data to study: (a) seasonal variations; (b) inter-decadal patterns; and (c) long-term trends in mean sea level across these regions. Different seasonal patterns were obtained: minimum and maximum sea level was reached 2/3-month later at the WIC than along the islands. The influence of coastal upwelling on the seasonality over the WIC was confirmed. The multidecadal variation in ocean temperature had a strong influence on the inter-annual variation in sea level. Lastly, sea level has been rising in almost all locations, but the WIC average rate was lower than the global average. This study highlights the need to monitor instrument stability and measurement quality as this will guarantee the implementation of effective regional adaptation plans. Western Iberian Coast and islands with differences in phase and amplitude of the mean seasonal cycle, in part due to upwelling Multidecadal variation in ocean temperature with the strongest influence on the inter-annual variation in sea level over the region Mainland regional average trend of 2.00 +/- 0.06 mm/year lower than the global rise observed over the past 30 years

Estuaries are dynamic and resource-rich ecosystems renowned for their high productivity and ecological significance. The Rías Baixas, located in the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, consist of four highly productive estuaries that support the region’s economy through key fisheries and aquaculture activities. Numerical modeling of biogeochemical processes in the rias is essential to address environmental and anthropogenic pressures, particularly in areas facing intense human development. This study presents a high-resolution water quality model developed using Delft3D 4 software, integrating the hydrodynamic (Delft3D-FLOW) and water quality (Delft3D-WAQ) modules. Calibration and validation demonstrate the robust performance and reliability of the model in simulating critical biogeochemical processes, such as nutrient cycling and phytoplankton dynamics. The model effectively captures seasonal and spatial variations in water quality parameters, including water temperature, salinity, inorganic nutrients, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll-a. Of the variables studied, the model performed best for dissolved oxygen, followed by nitrates, phosphates, ammonium, silicate, and chlorophyll-a. While some discrepancies were observed in the inner zones and deeper layers of the rias, the overall performance metrics aligned closely with the observed data, enhancing confidence in the model’s utility for future research and resource management. These results highlight the model’s value as a tool for research and managing water and marine resources in the Rías Baixas.

This study aims to investigate the potential changes in the co-occurrence of strong precipitation and wind events over the Iberian Peninsula using simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6 under two scenarios (SSP2 − 4.5 and SSP5 − 8.5). Projected changes indicate a significant regional variability during all seasons. In winter, the western regions are projected to experience an increase in compound events as the century progresses under both scenarios, with a significantly larger area being affected by the end of the century. In spring, summer, and autumn, a general decline in the occurrence of these events is anticipated throughout the century, accompanied by a reduction in the area affected by them. However, in the northwesternmost area (Galicia), an increase in the occurrence of compound events is expected during the spring towards the end of the century, particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.