We investigate the most probable transition path from a perennially ice-covered state to an ice-free Arctic state, using a piecewise-smooth periodically forced energy balance model for the yearly evolution of energy in the Arctic introduced by Eisenman and Wettlaufer. Although a summertime ice-free state is widely expected to occur if current climate change trends persist, the time frame and pathway by which the Arctic may transition to an ice-free state remains in debate. Using the Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations with an appropriate rate functional for piecewise-smooth systems, we characterize noise-induced transitions in the energy balance model framed as a stochastic differential equation. We derive the most probable transition path using gradient flow applied to a mollified system and validate our qualitative results using Monte Carlo simulations. These simulations show that transitions typically begin during the first half of the year with an average duration of approximately 19.5 years. We further derive an effective quasi-potential to estimate the expected escape time from the metastable states to the switching manifold. Our results provide insight into Arctic sea ice loss mechanisms, as well as a case study for how transition paths may be characterized in piecewise-smooth systems.

Stochastic systems are used to model a variety of phenomena in which noise plays an essential role. In these models, one potential goal is to determine if noise can induce transitions between states, and if so, to calculate the most probable escape path from an attractor. In the small noise limit, the Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations provides a variational framework to calculate these paths. This work focuses on using large deviation theory to calculate such paths for stochastic gradient systems with non-gradient perturbations. While for gradient systems the most probable escape paths consist of time-reversed heteroclinic orbits, for general systems it can be a challenging calculation. By applying Melnikov theory to the resulting Euler-Lagrange equations recast in Hamiltonian form, we determine a condition for when the optimal escape path is the heteroclinic orbit for the perturbed system. We provide a numerical example to illustrate how the computed most probable escape path compares with the theoretical result.

Selectivity to orientations of edges is seen at the earliest stages of visual processing in retinal orientation-selective ganglion cells (OSGCs), which are thought to prefer vertical or horizontal orientation. However, because stationary edges are projected on the hemispherical retina as lines of longitude or latitude, how edge orientation is encoded and decoded by the brain is unknown. Here, by mapping the orientation selectivity (OS) of thousands of OSGCs at known retinal locations in mice, we identify three OSGC types whose preferences match two longitudinal fields and a fourth type matching two latitudinal fields, with the members of each field pair being non-orthogonal. A geometric decoder reveals that two OS sensors yield optimal orientation decoding when approaching the deviation from orthogonality we observe for OSGC field pairs. Retinotopically organized decoding generates type-specific variation in decoding efficiency across the visual field. OS tuning is greater in the dorsal retina, possibly reflecting an evolutionary adaptation to an environmental gradient of edges.

A presumed impact of global climate change is the increase in frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. Due to the possible destruction that occurs when tropical cyclones make landfall, understanding their formation should be of mass interest. In 2017, Kerry Emanuel modeled tropical cyclone formation by developing a low-dimensional dynamical system which couples tangential wind speed of the eye-wall with the inner-core moisture. For physically relevant parameters, this dynamical system always contains three fixed points: a stable fixed point at the origin corresponding to a non-storm state, an additional asymptotically stable fixed point corresponding to a stable storm state, and a saddle corresponding to an unstable storm state. The goal of this work is to provide insight into the underlying mechanisms that govern the formation and suppression of tropical cyclones through both analytical arguments and numerical experiments. We present a case study of both rate and noise-induced tipping between the stable states, relating to the destabilization or formation of a tropical cyclone. While the stochastic system exhibits transitions both to and from the non-storm state, noise-induced tipping is more likely to form a storm, whereas rate-induced tipping is more likely to cause the storm to destabilize. In fact, rate-induced tipping can never lead to the formation of a storm when acting alone. When rate-induced tipping causes the storm to destabilize, a striking result is that both wind shear and maximal potential velocity have to increase at a substantial rate in order to affect tipping away from the active hurricane state. For storm formation through noise-induced tipping, we identify a specific direction along which the non-storm state is most likely to get activated.

We develop a path integral framework for determining most probable paths for a class of systems of stochastic differential equations with piecewise-smooth drift and additive noise. This approach extends the Freidlin-Wentzell theory of large deviations to cases where the system is piecewisesmooth and may be non-autonomous. In particular, we consider an n-dimensional system with a switching manifold in the drift that forms an (n - 1)-dimensional hyperplane and investigate noiseinduced transitions between metastable states on either side of the switching manifold. To do this, we mollify the drift and use Gamma -convergence to derive an appropriate rate functional for the system in the piecewise-smooth limit. The resulting functional consists of the standard Freidlin-Wentzell rate functional, with an additional contribution due to times when the most probable path slides in a crossing region of the switching manifold. We explore implications of the derived functional through two case studies, which exhibit notable phenomena such as non-unique most probable paths and noise-induced sliding in a crossing region.

The spread of an infectious disease depends on intrinsic properties of the disease as well as the connectivity and actions of the population. This study investigates the dynamics of an SIR type model which accounts for human tendency to avoid infection while also maintaining preexisting, interpersonal relationships. Specifically, we use a network model in which individuals probabilistically deactivate connections to infected individuals and later reconnect to the same individuals upon recovery. To analyze this network model, a mean field approximation consisting of a system of fourteen ordinary differential equations for the number of nodes and edges is developed. This system of equations is closed using a moment closure approximation for the number of triple links. By analyzing the differential equations, it is shown that, in addition to force of infection and recovery rate, the probability of deactivating edges and the average node degree of the underlying network determine if an epidemic occurs.

A ubiquitous motif in nature is the self-similar hierarchical buckling of a thin lamina near its margins. This is seen in leaves, flowers, fungi, corals, and marine invertebrates. We investigate this morphology from the perspective of non-Euclidean plate theory. We identify a novel type of defect, a branch-point of the normal map, that allows for the generation of such complex wrinkling patterns in thin elastic hyperbolic surfaces, even in the absence of stretching. We argue that branch points are the natural defects in hyperbolic sheets, they carry a topological charge which gives them a degree of robustness, and they can influence the overall morphology of a hyperbolic surface without concentrating elastic energy. We develop a theory for branch points and investigate their role in determining the mechanical response of hyperbolic sheets to weak external forces.

We explore regularity properties of solutions to a two-phase elliptic free boundary problem near a Neumann fixed boundary in two dimensions. Consider a function u, which is harmonic where it is not zero and satisfies a gradient jump condition weakly along the free boundary. Our main result is that u is Lipschitz continuous up to the Neumann fixed boundary. We also present a numerical exploration of the way in which the free and fixed boundaries interact.

We consider a periodically forced 1D Langevin equation that possesses two stable periodic solutions in the absence of noise. We ask the question: is there a most likely noise-induced transition path between these periodic solutions that allows us to identify a preferred phase of the forcing when tipping occurs? The quasistatic regime, where the forcing period is long compared to the adiabatic relaxation time, has been well studied; our work instead explores the case when these time scales are comparable. We compute optimal paths using the path integral method incorporating the Onsager-Machlup functional and validate results with Monte Carlo simulations. Results for the preferred tipping phase are compared with the deterministic aspects of the problem. We identify parameter regimes where nullclines, associated with the deterministic problem in a 2D extended phase space, form passageways through which the optimal paths transit. As the nullclines are independent of the relaxation time and the noise strength, this leads to a robust deterministic predictor of the preferred tipping phase in a regime where forcing is neither too fast nor too slow.

We consider a simple periodically-forced 1-D Langevin equation which possesses two stable periodic orbits in the absence of noise. We ask the question: is there a most likely transition path between the stable orbits that would allow us to identify a preferred phase of the periodic forcing for which tipping occurs? The regime where the forcing period is long compared to the adiabatic relaxation time has been well studied. Our work complements this by focusing on the regime where the forcing period is comparable to the relaxation time. We compute optimal paths using the least action method which involves the Onsager-Machlup functional and validate results with Monte Carlo simulations in a regime where noise and drift are balanced. Results for the preferred tipping phase are compared with the deterministic aspects of the problem. We identify parameter regimes where nullclines, associated with the deterministic problem in a 2-D extended phase space, form passageways through which the optimal paths transit. As the nullclines are independent of the relaxation time and the noise strength, this leads to a robust deterministic predictor of a preferred tipping phase for the noise and drift balanced regime.

Self-motion triggers complementary visual and vestibular reflexes supporting image-stabilization and balance. Translation through space produces one global pattern of retinal image motion (optic flow), rotation another. We examined the direction preferences of direction-sensitive ganglion cells (DSGCs) in flattened mouse retinas in vitro. Here we show that for each subtype of DSGC, direction preference varies topographically so as to align with specific translatory optic flow fields, creating a neural ensemble tuned for a specific direction of motion through space. Four cardinal translatory directions are represented, aligned with two axes of high adaptive relevance: the body and gravitational axes. One subtype maximizes its output when the mouse advances, others when it retreats, rises or falls. Two classes of DSGCs, namely, ON-DSGCs and ON-OFF-DSGCs, share the same spatial geometry but weight the four channels differently. Each subtype ensemble is also tuned for rotation. The relative activation of DSGC channels uniquely encodes every translation and rotation. Although retinal and vestibular systems both encode translatory and rotatory self-motion, their coordinate systems differ.

In this paper we study the brachistochrone problem in an inverse-square gravitational field on the unit disk.We show that the time optimal solutions consist of either smooth strong solutions to the Euler-Lagrange equation or weak solutions formed by appropriately patched together strong solutions.This combination of weak and strong solutions completely foliates the unit disk.We also consider the problem on annular domains and show that the time optimal paths foliate the annulus.These foliations on the annular domains converge to the foliation on the unit disk in the limit of vanishing inner radius.

The edges of torn plastic sheets and growing leaves often display hierarchical buckling patterns. We show that this complex morphology (i) emerges even in zero strain configurations, and (ii) is driven by a competition between the two principal curvatures, rather than between bending and stretching. We identify the key role of branch-point (or "monkey-saddle") singularities in generating complex wrinkling patterns in isometric immersions, and show how they arise naturally from minimizing the elastic energy.

The edge of torn elastic sheets and growing leaves often form a hierarchical buckling pattern. Within non-Euclidean plate theory this complex morphology can be understood as low bending energy isometric immersions of hyperbolic Riemannian metrics. With this motivation we study the isometric immersion problem in strip and disk geometries. By finding explicit piecewise smooth solutions of hyperbolic Monge-Ampere equations on a strip, we show there exist periodic isometric immersions of hyperbolic surfaces in the small slope regime. We extend these solutions to exact isometric immersions through resummation of a formal asymptotic expansion. In the disc geometry we construct self-similar fractal-like isometric immersions for disks with constant negative curvature. The solutions in both the strip and disc geometry qualitatively resemble the patterns observed experimentally and numerically in torn elastic sheets, leaves and swelling hydrogels. For hyperbolic non-Euclidean sheets, complex wrinkling patterns are thus possible within the class of finite bending energy isometric immersions. Further, our results identify the key role of the degree of differentiability (regularity) of the isometric immersion in determining the global structure of a non-Euclidean elastic sheet in 3-space.

We investigate the problem of shaping radially symmetric annular beams into desired intensity patterns along the optical axis. Within the Fresnel approximation, we show that this problem can be expressed in a variational form equivalent to the one arising in phase retrieval. Using the uncertainty principle we prove rigorous lower bounds on the functional that capture how the various physical parameters in the problem determine the accuracy of the beam shaping. We also use the method of stationary phase to construct a natural ansatz for a minimizer in the short wavelength limit. We illustrate the implications of our results by applying the method of stationary phase coupled with the Gerchberg-Saxton algorithm to beam shaping problems arising in remote delivery of beams and pulses.

Gaussian-apodized Bessel beams can be used to create a Bessel-like axial line focus at a distance from the focusing lens. For many applications it is desirable to create an axial intensity profile that is uniform along the Bessel zone. In this article, we show that this can be accomplished through phase-only shaping of the wavefront in the far field where the beam has an annular ring structure with a Gaussian cross section. We use a one-dimensional transform to map the radial input field to the axial Bessel field and then optimized the axial intensity with a Gerchberg-Saxton algorithm. By separating out the quadratic portion of the shaping phase the algorithm converges more rapidly.

A non-Euclidean plate is a thin elastic object whose intrinsic geometry is not flat and hence has residual stresses arising from being embedded in three dimensional space. Recently, there has been interest in using localized swelling to induce residual stresses that shape flat objects into desired three dimensional structures. A fundamental question is whether we can use the mathematical theory of non-Euclidean plates to deduce the three dimensional configuration of the swelling sheet given the exact knowledge of the imposed geometry. We present and summarize the results of recent mathematical studies on non-Euclidean plates with imposed constant negative Gaussian curvature in both annular and disc geometries. We show in the Foppl-von Karman approximation to the elastic energy there are only two types of global minimizers - flat and saddle shaped deformations - with localized regions of stretching near the boundary of the domain. We also show that there exist n-wave local minimizers that closely resemble experimental observations and have additional regions of stretching near lines of inflection. Furthermore, in the Kirchhoff approximation to the elastic energy, we show that there exists exact isometric immersions with periodic profiles. The number of waves in these configurations is set by the condition that the bending energy remains finite and grows approximately exponentially with the radius of the annulus. For large radii, these shape are energetically favorable over saddle shapes and could explain why wavy shapes are selected in crochet models of the hyperbolic plane. The predicted morphologies however differ from what is observed in experiments on hydrogel disks highlighting the need for further theoretical studies.

We investigate the behaviour of non-Euclidean plates with constant negative Gaussian curvature using the Föppl–von Kármán reduced theory of elasticity. Motivated by recent experimental results, we focus on annuli with a periodic profile. We prove rigorous upper and lower bounds for the elastic energy that scales like the thickness squared. In particular we show that are only two types of global minimizers—deformations that remain flat and saddle shaped deformations with isolated regions of stretching near the edge of the annulus. We also show that there exist local minimizers with a periodic profile that have additional boundary layers near their lines of inflection. These additional boundary layers are a new phenomenon in thin elastic sheets and are necessary to regularize jump discontinuities in the azimuthal curvature across lines of inflection. We rigorously derive scaling laws for the width of these boundary layers as a function of the thickness of the sheet.