Abstract Species designated as state symbols in the United States carry cultural importance, embody historical heritage and maintain long‐standing linkages to Indigenous traditions. However, they are threatened by climate change and even face the risk of local or global extinction. The responses of these species to climate change have received little attention. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change on 64 state flowers and 68 state insects in the United States by employing correlative species distribution models (SDMs). We select a variety of commonly used SDM algorithms to construct an ensemble forecasting framework aimed at predicting the potential climatic habitats for each species under both historical (1981–2010) and future (2071–2100) climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5), and how these changes might influence the habitat suitability of flower and insect species within their designating states and across the United States. Our results indicate that 30%–66% of state flowers and 18%–51% of state insects are projected to experience substantial losses of climatically suitable habitat within their designating states. Across most cultural heritage‐related value types, more than half of the state species within each value category are projected to experience reduced habitat suitability under climate change (SSP5‐8.5), suggesting that cultural heritage‐related values associated with these species are broadly vulnerable under projected climate change. Under the high‐emissions scenario (SSP5‐8.5), 10 state flowers and three state insects are likely to face local extinction by the 2080s. Although most of these species may find suitable habitats in other states, only two are projected to have such areas located adjacent to their current designating states, potentially limiting natural dispersal. Nationally, 85% of flower species and 71%–79% of insect species are expected to shift their suitable habitat both poleward and uphill, with the magnitude of latitudinal and elevational shifts significantly greater under SSP5‐8.5 than under SSP1‐2.6. These findings highlight the vulnerability of culturally significant species to climate change and underscore the urgency of integrating climate adaptation into conservation planning. Proactive, forward‐looking conservation and management strategies may be critical for preserving cultural heritage and maintaining ecosystem resilience. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Communities and ecosystems are two related and contested concepts in ecology. Despite their longevity, three unanswered philosophical questions apply to both concepts. First, "what are they?" Both concepts have multiple definitions and little agreement among ecologists about which is correct or which is most useful. Second, "how are they individuated?" Working from any particular definition, how can ecologists delineate the boundaries of the entity described in the definition? And third, "what is their ontological status?" Are the communities and ecosystems that we define and delineate real objects that exist mind- independently, or are they merely "useful fictions?" Despite the fact that these questions are unanswered, ecologists have been able to make a good deal of progress in the study of these concepts. Nevertheless, answers to these questions would be useful for many applied questions in management and conservation.

1. The Conguillío Statement on the alleged values and responsibilities of ecologists claims that ecosystems are intrinsically valuable. This is a common claim by ecologists and the authors of the Conguillío Statement probably view it as uncontroversial. 2. Ecologists want to invoke the concept of intrinsic value because it seems to cover more of nature than instrumental value. However, ecologists of- ten use the term without recognizing that it can have significantly different meanings. In particular ecologists often invoke the conception of objective intrinsic value because it has more moral force than other conceptions. 3. The quintessential entities thought to have intrinsic value are individual human beings. There are two approaches to showing that ecosystems also have intrinsic value: monism and pluralism. Monism attempts to show that we can come to recognize the objective intrinsic value in ecosystems by showing that they have this value for reasons similar to those thought to engender it in individual humans. This position does not seem plausible. Pluralism attempts to account for the supposed intrinsic value of ecosystems for some other reason, and this account exists independently of our traditional human-centric ethics. The problem with the pluralist approach is that there is no principled way to reconcile the inevitable conflicts that will arise between human interests and the claimed intrinsic value of ecosystems. It seems that unless we are prepared to throw out our human ethics, pluralism will not work. 4. While there are active philosophical research programs aimed at resolving these conflicts, ecologists should probably treat the Conguillío Statement's claim of intrinsic value for ecosystems as an essentially contested concept- one that is inherently debatable and for which there is no single agreed-upon understanding or interpretation.

Pine wilt disease is one of the most severe and devastating diseases affecting pine forests worldwide, resulting in huge economic losses in many countries. The pinewood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is the causal agent of pine wilt disease and is obligately vectored by pine sawyer beetles, of the genus Monochamus. For the disease to be present, the habitat must be suitable for the PWN, and include at least one vector species, and at least one host species. To predict its potential distribution, a model must consider all three components. However, no comprehensive study has examined the influence of climatic suitability on the distribution of this "biological complex". This study addresses this gap by incorporating biotic interactions, specifically involving 13 vectors and 61 host plants, into projections based on the PWN model. We predicted the global potential distribution of pine wilt disease and compared it with the PWN model to highlight the importance of including biotic interactions in species distribution models under climate change. We found that the model revealed an overall trend of increasing suitability scores for both the PWN and pine wilt disease models under future climate scenarios. Furthermore, compared to the PWN model, the biotic model results in an apparent increase in suitability worldwide in the future as the climate will be more suitable to vector and host complexes, suggesting that pine wilt disease could potentially spread to other places via available hosts and vectors. Synthesis and applications. By incorporating biotic interactions, we projected a more accurate suitable area for pine wilt disease, offering valuable insights into regions at high risk for future invasions by the disease and its vectors. This information supports the development of management and early detection strategies in areas of high suitability, helping to mitigate potential economic and ecological losses. Additionally, this study introduces a novel approach for integrating biotic factors into species distribution models. By incorporating biotic interactions, we projected a more accurate suitable area for pine wilt disease, offering valuable insights into regions at high risk for future invasions by the disease and its vectors. This information supports the development of management and early detection strategies in areas of high suitability, helping to mitigate potential economic and ecological losses. Additionally, this study introduces a novel approach for integrating biotic factors into species distribution models.image

Species distribution models (SDMs) are often built upon the "niche conservatism" assumption, such that they ignore the possibility of "evolutionary rescue" and may underestimate species' future range limits under climate change. We select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species' thermal performances, accounting for biotic interactions. Our study suggests that, without considering evolutionary adaptation, the warming climate will result in a reduction in aphid populations and the extinction of ladybirds in large parts of the United States. However, when incorporating evolutionary adaptation into the model, aphids can adapt to climate change, whereas ladybirds demonstrate geographic variation in their evolutionary rescue potential. Specifically, ladybirds in southern regions are more likely to be rescued than those in the north. In certain northern regions, ladybirds do not avoid extinction due to severe warming trends and seasonality of the climate. While higher warming trends do prompt stronger evolutionary changes in phenotype, they also lead to reduced aphid population abundance such that ecology constrains ladybird population growth. Higher seasonality induces an ecological effect by limiting the length of reproductive season, thereby reducing the capacity for evolutionary rescue. Together, these findings reveal the complex interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics in the context of evolutionary adaptation to climate change.

AimSpecies distribution models (SDMs) can be correlative or mechanistic, which have very different assumptions, leading to potentially different estimates of the ecological niches and distributions of the species. The model predictions from correlative and mechanistic approaches are incomparable due to their distinct assumptions. Yet, seeking their agreements can identify robust predictions that are relatively independent of the assumptions used to generate them. However, the search for robust model predictions among SDM models remains understudied and rarely considers the effect of biotic interactions. It is essential to identify robust predictions from SDMs for policy making.LocationGlobal.Time Period1970-2000/1980-2000 and 2081-2100.Major Taxa StudiesAphids.MethodsIn this study, we selected five aphid species as examples, and applied an ensemble model of multiple correlative SDMs (eC-SDM), a mechanistic SDM of the prey species alone (M-SDM) and a mechanistic SDM of the predator-prey interactions (M-BI-SDM), to predict the habitat suitability of these aphids under climate change and seek robust predictions from both approaches, as well as evaluate the importance of biotic interactions in SDM studies.ResultsOur results show that the five aphid species have different habitat suitability patterns predicted by both correlative and mechanistic approaches. However, there is a notable consensus between the model predictions for parts of North America and eastern Asia, indicating that the predictions in these regions are robust. Additionally, our mechanistic models allow us to assess the importance of predation on SDM predictions, revealing that predation can quantitatively affect species' habitat suitability both directly and indirectly.Main ConclusionsOur study suggests that mechanistic SDM could serve as a valuable addition to assess the robustness of the correlative SDM predictions, by providing additional biological realism. It highlights the importance of using diverse modelling approaches to achieve robust model predictions.

Previous articleNext article No AccessConservation BiologyWhy Conserve Nature?: Perspectives on Meanings and Motivations. Ecology, Biodiversity and Conservation. By Stephen Trudgill. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press. $110.00 (hardcover); $49.99 (paper). xxi + 390 p. + 12 pl.; ill.; index. ISBN: 9781108832526 (hc); 9781108958578 (pb); 9781108961059 (eb). 2022.Jonathan A. NewmanJonathan A. NewmanBiology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmailPrint SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The Quarterly Review of Biology Volume 98, Number 2June 2023 Published in association with Stony Brook University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/725277 Views: 17Total views on this site For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected].PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

1. Thermal performance within predator-prey systems may have profound effects on species interactions under climate change. However, how the thermal response of predators and prey to climate change affects their interactions is still understudied.2. To examine the responses of a predator-prey system to climate change, we constructed a biologically detailed stage-structured population dynamic model using aphids (prey) and ladybirds (predator) as a model system. We explore the system's dynamics across the entire feasible parameter space of annual mean temperature and seasonality. Within this space, we explore all qualitatively possible scenarios of thermal performance mismatches to gain insight into how these affect the interacting species' responses to climatic change.3. We find that, generally, warmer and less seasonal climates are the most favourable climate conditions for both species. Our results also indicate that predation always has a stronger effect on aphid abundance than the climate in tropical and subtropical regions for all the thermal performance mismatch scenarios. Furthermore, predation's (biotic) effect on prey abundance will generally decrease relative to the effect of climate (abiotic) when future climates become warmer and more seasonal.4. Our research highlights that the effects of increasing seasonality are consistent with climate having a proportionally larger impact on species pairs with different thermal performances than predation.

Mechanistic and correlative models are two types of species distribution models (SDMs). They each have distinct foci, conceptual foundations, and levels of dependency on data availability, leading to potentially different estimates of species’ ecological niches and distributions. Mechanistic SDMs integrate detailed biological processes, making it possible to account for species’ biotic interactions. Despite their assumed importance, interactions in species distribution modeling remain uncommon. In this study, we applied an ensemble model of multiple correlative SDMs, a mechanistic SDM of the focal species (prey) alone, and a mechanistic SDM of the predator-prey interactions, to compare the predictions of correlative and mechanistic approaches and assess their relative strengths and limitations. We predict there are considerable and subtle differences in various predictions generated by the correlative and mechanistic approaches for each aphid species, which call for prior knowledge concerning species’ presence data or life histories. Our mechanistic SDMs allowed for the assessment of the relative significance of abiotic and biotic factors, along with their interactions, in determining species’ habitat suitability. Additionally, we predict aphid habitat suitability decreases across continents due to the effect of predation. However, this decrease may be offset or enhanced by the interaction effect between predation and climate change in different regions. This suggests the necessity of accounting for biotic interactions and the interplay between abiotic and biotic factors in mechanistic approaches. Our research highlights the impact of model philosophies in SDM studies and addresses the importance of selecting an appropriate modeling approach in line with the study’s objectives. Furthermore, our study suggests that mechanistic SDMs could serve as a valuable addition for assessing the robustness of correlative SDM predictions.

Under climate change, species can adapt to changing environments through phenotypic plasticity and natural selection, and this kind of evolutionary adaptation can vary geographically. Most species distribution models (SDMs) are built upon the “Niche conservatism” assumption. They often ignore the possibility of “evolutionary rescue” and underestimate species’ future range limits under climate change. Here, we select aphids and ladybirds as model species and develop an eco-evolutionary model to explore evolutionary rescue in a predator-prey system under climate change. We model the adaptive change of species thermal performance, accounting for biotic interactions of unique life-history trait. Our results show that there is geographic variation in evolutionary rescue for ladybirds (the predator) across different locations in the United States, with ladybirds being more likely to be rescued from extinction in southeastern locations. The possibility of rescue is primarily influenced by the change in seasonality. Our findings also indicate the additive genetic variance of predators has a stronger influence on the phenotype evolution and population dynamics of both prey and predators, compared to the additive genetic variance of the prey. Our research emphasizes the importance of incorporating evolutionary adaptation when predicting species range shift under climate change. The eco-evolutionary model framework can be applied to study the effect of evolution on interacting species’ population abundance and geographic distribution under climate change.

Previous articleNext article No AccessLead ReviewAnimal Rights and Conservation: A Fresh Perspective Wildlife as Property Owners: A New Conception of Animal Rights. By Karen Bradshaw. Chicago (Illinois): University of Chicago Press. $95.00 (hardcover); $27.50 (paper). viii + 203 p.; index. ISBN: 978-0-226-57122-5 (hc); 978-0-226-57136-2 (pb); 978-0-226-57153-9 (eb). 2020.Jonathan A. NewmanJonathan A. NewmanDepartment of Biology, Wilfrid Laurier University Waterloo, Ontario N1G 2W1 Canada Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The Quarterly Review of Biology Volume 97, Number 2June 2022 Published in association with Stony Brook University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/720106 Views: 68Total views on this site For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.

Thermal tolerance mismatch within predator-prey systems may have pro-found effects on species population abundances and geographical distributions. To examine the generalized responses of a predator-prey system to climate change, we construct a biologically detailed stage-structured population dynamic model of interactions between ladybird beetles and aphids. We explore the model’s dynamics across the entire feasible parameter space of mean temperature and seasonality. Within this space, we explore different scenarios of predator and prey thermal tolerance mismatch to gain insight into how these thermal sensitivities affect the interacting species’ responses to climatic change. Our results indicate a predator’s cold tolerance has a larger effect on prey abundance than its heat tolerance. Mismatches between the predator’s and prey’s thermal tolerances also affect the species’ response to climate change. We identify three common patterns of species abundance across the feasible parameter space that relate to the type of thermal tolerance mismatches. Our study highlights the importance of understanding the complex interplay between climate change and species interactions.

Host-specific Epichloë spp. are endophytic fungal symbionts of pooid grasses that produce herbivore-deterring alkaloids and alter the host’s metabolite and protein profiles. Early observations suggested that Epichloë may have negative allelopathic effects on neighbouring plant species, particularly Trifolium spp. clovers, but subsequent allelopathy experiments produced variable results. We examined two hypotheses: (1) Epichloë strains differ in allelopathic effect, and (2) Epichloë allelopathy negatively affects other plant species. We performed a greenhouse experiment using root exudates from Lolium perenne L. hosting different E. festucae var. lolii (Latch, M.J. Chr. Samuels) C.W. Bacon Schardl strains to compare their allelopathic effects on native legumes and forbs. We then used meta-analysis to examine the evidence to date for allelopathic effects of Epichloë endophytes. We found little difference in effect among E. festucae var. lolii strains and very little evidence for negative allelopathic effects of Epichloë in cool-season grasses across a range of methodologies, target plant species, and response measures. Negative allelopathic effects were detected only for root hair measures, which were from a single study. Positive effects on biomass were found for some experimental subgroups, including legumes. However, the majority of response variables showed no evidence for Epichloë allelopathy. Although there is currently little evidence for negative Epichloë allelopathic effects, our meta-analysis identified several research gaps. Experiments testing the functional belowground effects of Epichloë presence may help to determine its effects on non-host plant performance via plant-soil feedbacks.

Aphids can have a significant impact on the growth and commercial yield of spruce plantations. Here we develop a mechanistic deterministic mathematical model for the dynamics of the green spruce aphid (Elatobium abietum Walker) growing on Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.). These grow in a northern British climate in managed plantations, with planting, thinning and a 60-year rotation. Aphid infestation rarely kills the tree but can reduce growth by up to 55%. We used the Edinburgh Forest Model (efm) to simulate spruce tree growth. The aphid sub-model is described in detail in an appendix. The only environmental variable which impacts immediately on aphid dynamics is air temperature which varies diurnally and seasonally. The efm variables that are directly significant for the aphid are leaf area and phloem nitrogen and carbon. Aphid population predictions include dying out, annual, biennual and other complex patterns, including chaos. Predicted impacts on plantation yield of managed forests can be large and variable, as has been observed; they are also much affected by temperature, CO2 concentration and other climate variables. However, in this system, increased CO2 concentration appears to ameliorate the severity of the effects of increasing temperatures coupled to worsening aphid infestations on plantation yield.

Tall fescue (Schedonorus arundinaceus) is a cool-season grass which is commonly infected with the fungal endophyte Epichloë coenophiala. Although the relationship between tall fescue and E. coenophiala is well-studied, less is known about its broader fungal communities. We used next-generation sequencing of the ITS2 region to describe the complete foliar fungal microbiomes in a set of field-grown tall fescue plants over two years, and whether these fungal communities were affected by the presence of Epichloë. We used the Georgia 5 cultivar of tall fescue, grown in the field for six years prior to sampling. Plants were either uninfected with E. coenophiala, or they were infected with one of two E. coenophiala strains: The common toxic strain or the AR542 strain (sold commerically as MaxQ). We observed 3487 amplicon sequence variants (ASVs) across all plants and identified 43 ASVs which may make up a potential core microbiome. Fungal communities did not differ strongly between Epichloë treatments, but did show a great deal of variation between the two years. Plant fitness also changed over time but was not influenced by E. coenophiala infection.

Strictly vertically transmitted (hereditary) Epichloë spp. fungal endophytes are symbionts with cool-season pooid host grasses. Such endophytes may increase host invasiveness in the non-native, introduced ranges. However, because costs and benefits for the host can vary with the growing conditions, the endophyte may become locally or temporally extinct when costs outweigh benefits. Our long-term field experiment involved the introduction of seven Schedonorus pratensis (meadow fescue) cultivars hosting Epichloë uncinata endophyte, which represent host-grass populations differing in genetic backgrounds and Epichloë infection frequencies, to an unmanaged old field. In the first 6 years, the host grasses persisted but did not become invasive in the plant community, regardless of their endophyte infection frequency. Subsequently, we hypothesized that increasing nutrient availability would decrease endophyte costs and thus increase the host’s success and abundance. We fertilized half of the plots for four additional years and re-examined S. pratensis invasiveness. We predicted that increased nutrient availability would increase S. pratensis abundance and E. uncinata frequency and concentration, as well as decrease plant community diversity, relative to unfertilized plots. Fertilization increased endophyte concentrations in three low-endophyte host populations. However, E. uncinata did not enable S. pratensis populations to achieve high abundance or to reduce plant community diversity in the old field, with or without fertilization. Thus, nutrient availabililty and host invasiveness appear to be decoupled in this study system.

Aphids can have a significant impact on the growth and commercial yield of spruce plantations. Here we develop a mechanistic deterministic mathematical model for the dynamics of the green spruce aphid ( Elatobium abietum Walker) growing on Sitka spruce ( Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.). These grow in a northern British climate in managed plantations, with planting, thinning and a 60-year rotation. Aphid infestation rarely kills the tree but can reduce growth by up to 55%. We used the Edinburgh Forest Model (efm) to simulate spruce tree growth. The aphid sub-model is described in detail in an appendix. The only environmental variable which impacts immediately on aphid dynamics is air temperature which varies diurnally and seasonally. The efm variables that are directly significant for the aphid are leaf area and phloem nitrogen and carbon. Aphid population predictions include dying out, annual, biennual and other complex patterns, including chaos. Predicted impacts on plantation yield of managed forests can be large and variable, as has been observed; they are also much affected by temperature, CO 2 concentration and other climate variables. However increased CO 2 concentration appears to ameliorate the severity of the effects of increasing temperatures coupled to worsening aphid infestations on plantation yield.

Previous articleNext article No AccessMicrobiologyMicrobiomes of Soils, Plants and Animals: An Integrated Approach. Ecological Reviews. Edited by Rachael E. Antwis, Xavier A. Harrison, and Michael J. Cox. Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press. $120.00 (hardcover); $44.99 (paper). xiii + 235 p. + 4 pl.; ill.; index. ISBN: 978-1-108-47371-2 (hc); 978-1-108-46248-8 (pb). 2020.Jonathan Newman and Newman Lab GroupJonathan NewmanBiology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Search for more articles by this author and Newman Lab GroupBiology, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada Search for more articles by this author PDFPDF PLUSFull Text Add to favoritesDownload CitationTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints Share onFacebookTwitterLinkedInRedditEmail SectionsMoreDetailsFiguresReferencesCited by The Quarterly Review of Biology Volume 96, Number 4December 2021 Published in association with Stony Brook University Article DOIhttps://doi.org/10.1086/717359 Views: 18Total views on this site For permission to reuse, please contact [email protected]PDF download Crossref reports no articles citing this article.