Demand-side approaches become an important pillar for energy analysis, and their roles for achieving climate targets have been increasingly emphasized globally. Particularly, Korea is one of the countries experiencing a rapid transition of demographic and household structures, and accordingly, the current and future energy demand could be significantly affected. As per the importance of the understanding the energy demand characteristics, this study contributes to understanding the electricity consumption of households by analyzing how the various household characteristics can be used to understand the household's electricity consumption with household-level survey and machine learning techniques. This study utilizes the Household Energy Standing Survey published in 2022 and selects key household, housing, and appliance ownership and usage characteristics from the entire dataset. Afterward, the study applies Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and Decision Tree classifiers to classify the household's monthly electricity consumption. The results suggest that the Random Forest classifier provides slightly better performances in general compared to the other models. Moreover, the feature importance suggests that the housing characteristics, such as the size of housing, and appliance usage information, and some household characteristics, such as the number of household members and household income, are relatively important features for classification. Although the study finds some evidence of the importance of household and behavioral information in understanding the household's electricity consumption, the study also identifies the limitation of the survey dataset in extracting the behavioral information.
Developing Asian economies have been the fastest-growing economies, and their greenhouse gas emissions have increased significantly. Recent urgent calls for climate action and achieving Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) targets (even net zero) require developing Asian economies to achieve the transition towards low-carbon economies. This study applied a global dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to analyze the impacts of achieving NDC targets and reaching net zero through carbon pricing on Asian regions’ economies and employment. Four different scenarios (business-as-usual, NDC extension, net zero transition, and orderly net zero transition) were established, and particularly, the orderly net zero transition scenario incorporates carbon pricing for achieving net zero and establishing an international carbon market in Asia. Economically, the mitigation efforts to achieve NDC targets and net zero would cause some economic losses in Asia, but a limited size of economic losses is expected, compared to a significant decrease in greenhouse gas emissions in Asia. Also, the study suggests that the introduction of an international carbon market in Asia could support Asian regions in general, though with some mixed results across regions, economically to achieve a net-zero transition. Moreover, the mitigation efforts and net zero transition could have some positive impacts on employment. These transitions would increase both skilled and unskilled labor in Asia but with some mixed results across regions and sectors. From a sectoral perspective, the NDC target achievement and net zero transitions would affect the fossil fueland carbonintensive sectors and the renewable energy sector significantly, while the other sectors would remain relatively stable. Both economic indicators and employment of fossil fueland carbonintensive sectors would be significantly damaged, and the coal sector would experience the largest negative impacts. However, the renewable electricity sector would grow significantly. The results suggested that national and international policy measures, such as technology and finance transfer, would need to be considered to incentivize Asian economies to participate in the international carbon market and to support the countries and sectors that are experiencing negative impacts from low-carbon transitions. Last, the low carbon transitions could provide potential co-benefits, though not considered in this study, to developing Asian economies with environmental problems and large exposure to climate risks.
In April 2023, the Korean government announced its national emission pathways to achieve its 2030 NDC target of reducing GHG emissions by 40% compared to the 2018-level. The study provides an overview of the economic impacts of achieving the NDC target on the Korean economy, and particularly, it considers the different circumstances of the global mitigation efforts. The study collects the countries’ NDC target information, applies a global dynamic recursive CGE model with GTAP 11 database, and establishes seven scenarios with different global mitigation efforts and the recycling of carbon revenues. Three types of international cooperation scenarios are Global Cooperation, Partial cooperation without Korea, and Unilateral Commitment by Korea. The utilization of carbon revenues is another dimension of the scenarios. The result indicates that all regions experience negative impacts on real GDP under the Global Cooperation scenario with lump-sum tax transfer approach. With the labor tax recycling, the losses in real GDP decrease, and some regions, including Korea, show some positive economic impacts. Particularly, Korea experiences substantial benefits from double dividend. Moreover, Korea experiences relatively favorable impacts of carbon pricing on real GDI. In addition, all scenarios indicate some decrease in real exports and imports in all regions, and the result suggests that carbon pricing would lead to significant negative impacts on production, particularly of fossil fuel sectors. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis on key parameters, such as the elasticities of substitution between energy and genuine input factors, as well as those between different sources of energies.
This study investigated how three Asian countries-Republic of Korea (ROK), Republic of China (Taiwan), and Singapore-considered as standouts, responded to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in terms of governance system, health sector innovation, and social distancing to draw lessons that other countries can learn from. The countries were commonly in success of the response in early stage of the pandemic thanks to their effective and efficient strategies paired with advanced information and communications technology (ICT). Consequently, the three jurisdictions reported lower confirmed cases as well as fatality rate of the infectious disease compared to other high-income countries. In addition, the countries' previous experiences with other pandemics, including influenza A, Middle East respiratory syndrome, and severe acute respiratory syndrome, enabled them to establish resilient public health systems and gain public acceptance to governmental control or surveillance during national infectious disease-related crises outbreaks. Advanced ICT infrastructure and digital technology were used as effective tools for testing, tracing, and treatment of the pandemic in collaboration with the private sector as a crucial player. The ROK, Taiwan, and Singapore adopted different strategies between containment and mitigation policy to flatten the epidemic curves effectively according to their own situation and judgement. Despite the exemplary aspect of the three nations in coping with the COVID-19 pandemic, a few limitations were also observed in terms of vaccination and unequal consequences of the pandemic among people. These should be further discussed in order to be prepared for future pandemics.
The demographic changes of East Asian countries have accelerated in recent years. With consideration of the linkage between human behavior and carbon emissions, it is necessary to consider demographic characteristics for the CO2 emission projections of these countries. This study examines how changes in the demographic structure affect the emission projections of three East Asian countries (South Korea, China, and Japan) by comparing two different vintages of population projections. The study constructed a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and applied the most up-to-date dataset of population prospects, GTAP 10, and the labor force participation rate. By comparing UN2010 and UN2019 projections, the study examined the impact of demographic changes on CO2 emission profiles of the three East Asian countries. The simulation result showed that GDP, which represents economic activity along with the population, is the direct channel of CO2 emission projections. Moreover, the scenario analysis suggested the population factor as one of the main drivers of the CO2 emission projection and a clear positive relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions, though CO2 emissions are generally inelastic in response to a GDP decrease in the three East Asian countries. The finding indirectly implies that not only the size of the population but also demographic composition should be considered to project CO2 emissions, as the labor participation rate is an important factor to determine the production function.
This study aims to classify 226 local entities in Korea according to the type of climate vulnerability to provide appropriate climate adaptation policies that consider local characteristics. Using climate impact as the y-axis and adaptive capacity as the x-axis, we can create four types of vulnerability and plot 226 local entities on a quadrant. Unlike previous studies in this field, we consider the concept of uncertainty while calculating the exposure index, which is a climate impact component, by estimating the probability of disaster risk. In addition, using the principal component analysis method to calculate weights for each index increased the statistical robustness to our study. The results indicated that Type 1 areas (those with high climate impact and high adaptive capacity) included coastal regions or geographically vulnerable places that could overcome climatic restrictions through their high adaptive capacity. Type 2 areas (those with high climate impact and low adaptive capacity) were the most vulnerable, and included several local areas on the west coast of the Korean peninsula. Socially vulnerable groups in this area may need support from the central government to avoid negative climate impacts. Local entities in Type 3 areas (those with low climate impact and low adaptive capacity) pay less attention to climate adaptation issues, but they are exposed to the potential risks of climate impacts due to their low adaptive capacity. For Type 3 specifically, further education and enhancing public awareness on climate change adaptation are required. Last, Type 4 areas (low climate impact and high adaptive capacity) include mostly urban areas where vulnerability is the lowest, yet potential risk could be the highest due to large populations and extensive infrastructure. The findings will contribute to map out locally specified climate change adaptation policies in each local entity.
The aim of Korea's Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and newly adopted auction system with a long-term fixed-price renewable contract was to support renewable energy providers in hedging electricity and Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) price risks. This study found a long-run positive relationship between the import price of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and System Marginal Price (SMP) in Korea, demonstrating that the fluctuations in global fuel prices are likely to increase uncertainties in renewable investments. The fixed-price contract, which cannot be revised once determined, encourages renewable energy providers' speculative decision-making, and the uncertainty caused by the contract system may discourage investment decision-making.
In this chapter, the authors suggest ways to achieve not only economic but also environmental development in North Korea and make policy proposals on the premise that North Korea eventually becomes a member of the global community through sincere denuclearization efforts. The authors suggest that North Korea prioritize climate adaptations plans at both the national and local level. To do so, financial as well as technical assistance and capacity building programs from the global community will be essential. Such international assistance will help North Korea to achieve the nationally determined contribution (NDC) submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Based on actual measurement data from a resort in the Maldives, this paper explores the criteria for the optimal off-grid renewable energy systems that contribute to greenhouse gas mitigation and climate adaptation efforts from three perspectives: technical, economic and environmental. Using Hybrid Optimization of Multiple Electric Renewables software, the optimal technical combination of hybrid energy system is determined. Moreover, indicators such as levelized cost of energy and net present cost are considered as economic criteria to determine the financial feasibility of the off-grid renewable energy systems. Finally, CO2 emission level and renewable shares are reviewed from environmental perspective.
The Maldives, one of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with great solar potential, is keen to promote renewable energy systems to reduce its heavy reliance on imported diesel for power generation. However, adopting renewable energy systems is still burdensome for the Maldives not only because of its high initial costs and insufficient financial resources but also because of a lack of understanding about whether the deployment of a renewable system is economically feasible. Therefore, the concept of grid parity is explored as an important concept in this paper to examine the possible timeframe for reaching it. A distinctive feature of the paper is that the paper used actual cost and technical information to analyze the levelized cost of energy (LCOEs) of the independent renewable system in a remote island and examined its timeframe for reaching the grid parity condition. Based on economic and technical information from a project for replacing existing diesel generator to photovoltaic (PV) with energy storage system (ESS) in Kuda Bandos Island in the Maldives, the paper considers three different system configurations and evaluates which configuration could result in the most optimal off-grid energy systems in this remote island. With sensitivity analysis on various uncertainties, the paper shows the range of the levelized costs of energy and the periods required for reaching grid parity for deploying solar photovoltaics and ESSs in Kuda Bandos Island, Maldives. The result indicates that the photovoltaic system is an economically feasible option for the resort, and that grid parity can be reached within the project lifetime. However, the result shows that the use of advanced ESSs is still an expensive option and would not be economically reasonable.
The ROK has experienced fast-economic development since the 1960s. A representative rural development policy in the 1970s and fast urbanization meant that national electrification improved rapidly, reaching over 90% before the 1980s. However, continued rapid economic growth has driven a fast-growing energy demand, and as a country dependent on high levels of energy imports, the ROK faces challenges to ensure sustainable energy. This chapter aims to assess the progress of the ROK in achieving SDG 7, affordable and clean energy, over the past 34 years (1981–2015). The chapter assesses the role of the ROK government in improving the progress of SDGs and reviews the efforts to develop the energy sector in the ROK by dealing with issues faced in the energy sector as well as the national plan and relevant policy measures to overcome these challenges.
The deployment of renewable energy in off-grid systems is increasing steadily in both developed and developing countries. In particular, Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are keen to adopt renewable off-grid systems for power generation and transportation to reduce their heavy reliance on imported oil and fossil fuels. In addition, off-grid systems are deemed to be an important vehicle to boost the development of renewable-based grids because of their geographical constraints and costs for grid extension. With declining costs and increasing performance of solar photovoltaics (PV) as well as declining costs and technological improvements in electricity storage and control systems, adopting off-grid renewable energy systems could serve as an optimal option for SIDS to diversify the source of energy supply. In this respect, this paper identifies the most cost-efficient combination of renewable energy systems to assess the financial feasibility of the -grid renewable energy systems using HOMER. Moreover, based on @Risk simulations, uncertain factors, such as diesel cost, construction delays, and operating & maintenance (O&M) costs, will be considered to determine how those uncertainties in the future could affect the Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE).
The recent drops in tariffs and the prevalent construction delay become concerns harming the financial sustainability of India’s solar projects. However, the conventional financial assessment method does not adequately incorporate those risks. This paper suggests a way to incorporate construction delay risk of solar projects in the financial analysis. The paper identifies the key risk factors affecting the financial sustainability of the solar projects in India. To assess the identified risks, the paper builds a hypothetical solar project and runs Monte Carlo simulation by using @Risk Software. The financial and sensitivity analysis portray the impacts of construction delays on the key financial indicators, especially net present value and payback periods.