The emergence and spread of β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae poses a significant threat to public health, necessitating the rapid detection and investigation of the molecular epidemiology of these pathogens. We modified a multiplex real-time (RT)-PCR to concurrently detect β-lactamase genes (blaCTX-M, blaTEM, and blaSHV) and Enterobacteriaceae 16S ribosomal RNA. qPCR probes and primers were validated using control isolates, and the sensitivity and specificity assessed. The optimised multiplex qPCR was used to screen 220 non-clinical Enterobacteriaceae from food animals and in-contact humans in Southeast Nigeria selected on cefotaxime-supplemented agar plates. Binary logistic regression was used to explore factors associated with the presence of the blaTEM and blaSHV genes in these isolates, and a subset of isolates from matched sampling sites and host species were whole genome sequenced, and their antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and plasmid profiles determined. The sensitivity and specificity of the qPCR assay was 100%. All isolates (220/220) were positive for Enterobacteriaceae ribosomal 16S rRNA and blaCTX-M, while 66.4% (146/220) and 9% (20/220) were positive for blaTEM and blaSHV, respectively. The prevalence of blaTEM and blaSHV varied across different sampling sites (farm, animal market and abattoirs). Isolates from Abia state were more likely to harbour blaTEM (OR = 2.3, p = 0.04) and blaSHV (OR = 5.12,p = 0.01) than isolates from Ebonyi state; blaTEM was more likely to be detected in isolates from food animals than humans (OR = 2.34, p = 0.03), whereas the reverse was seen for blaSHV (OR = 7.23, p = 0.02). Furthermore, Klebsiella and Enterobacter isolates harboured more AMR genes than Escherichia coli, even though they were isolated from the same sample. We also identified pan resistant Klebsiella harbouring resistance to ten classes of antimicrobials and disinfectant. Therefore, we recommend ESKAPE pathogens are included in AMR surveillance in future and suggest qPCRs be utilised for rapid screening of Enterobacteriaceae from human and animal sources.

Many small ruminants infected with foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remain asymptomatic, with the capacity to promote silent viral spread within domestic and wildlife species. However, little is known about the epidemiological role played by small ruminants in FMD. In particular, there are few studies that examine FMD sero-prevalence, spatial patterns and risk factors for exposure in small ruminants. A cross-sectional study was conducted in northern Nigeria (Bauchi, Kaduna, and Plateau States) to determine the true seroprevalence of FMD in backyard small ruminants, identify factors associated with FMD seroconversion at animal and household levels, and identify spatial patterns for FMD virus exposure. Data on animal (n = 1800) and household (n = 300) characteristics were collected using a standardised questionnaire. Sera samples from 1800 small ruminants were tested for antibodies against non-structural proteins of FMD virus. True seroprevalence was estimated stochastically to account for variability and uncertainty in the test sensitivity and specificity previously reported. Risk factors for FMD seropositivity were identified at animal and household levels and spatial patterns were determined. The overall true seroprevalence for FMD virus, in the small ruminant population tested, was estimated to be 10.2 % (95 % Credible Interval (CrI) 0.0-19.0), while State-level estimates were 17.3 % (95 % CrI 0.0-25.8) for Kaduna, 6.9 % (95% CrI 0.0-15.8) for Bauchi, and 3.6 % (95 % CrI 0.0-12.6) for Plateau. State and species were the main risk factors identified at animal level, with interaction detected between them. Compared to goats in Plateau, the odds of testing positive were higher for goats in Bauchi (Odds Ratio (OR)= 1.83, 95 % CI 1.13-2.97, p = 0.01) and Kaduna (OR=2.97, 95 % CI 1.89-4.67, p < 0.001), as well as for sheep in Plateau (OR=3.78, 95 % CI 2.08-6.87, p < 0.001), Bauchi (OR=1.61, 95 % CI 0.91-2.84, p = 0.10), and Kaduna (OR=3.11, 95 % CI 1.61-6.01, p = 0.001). Households located in Kaduna were more likely to have a higher number of seropositive SR compared to those in Plateau (Prevalence Ratio (PR)= 1.75, 95 % CI 1.30-2.36, p < 0.001), and households keeping sheep flocks were more likely to be seropositive (from 1 to 10 sheep: PR=1.39, 95 % CI 1.05-1.82, p = 0.02; more than 10 sheep: PR=1.55, 95 % CI 1.12-2.15, p = 0.008) compared to those that did not keep sheep. A hot-spot was detected in Kaduna, and a cold-spot in Plateau. These results reveal that small ruminants had been recently exposed to FMD virus with spatial heterogeneity across the study area.

Where disease risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space, or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on population distributions - human, livestock and wildlife - are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens and dynamics. As a result, large-scale, spatially explicit, high-resolution human population data are being increasingly used in a wide range of animal- and public-health planning and policy development scenarios. Official census data, aggregated by administrative unit, provide the only complete enumeration of a country's population. While census data from developed countries are generally up-to-date and of high quality, in resource-poor settings they are often incomplete, out of date, or only available at the country or province level. The challenges associated with producing accurate population estimates in regions that lack high-quality census data have led to the development of census-independent approaches to small-area population estimations. Known as bottom-up models, as opposed to the census-based top-down approaches, these methods combine microcensus survey data with ancillary data to provide spatially disaggregated population estimates in the absence of national census data. This review highlights the need for high-resolution gridded population data, discusses problems associated with using census data as top-down model inputs, and explores census-independent, or bottom-up, methods of producing spatially explicit, high-resolution gridded population data, together with their advantages.

The COVID-19 pandemic led to a surge in acquisitions of puppies in the UK, dubbed the "Pandemic Puppy" phenomenon. In addition to an increased demand for puppies, widespread changes to both why and how puppies were purchased during this period compared to pre-pandemic 2019 purchases were documented, many of which threatened canine welfare (e.g., puppies being collected away from their place of birth, without seeing their mother). This study aimed to explore which changes to the pre-purchase and purchase motivations and behaviours of UK owners who purchased a puppy aged <16 weeks in the 2020 phase of the COVID-19 pandemic had persisted into 2021 or had returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels. An online survey was conducted during February to April 2022 from which 2080 valid responses were analysed ("2021 puppies") and compared with previously collected data from comparable cohorts in 2019 (n = 1148, "2019 puppies") and 2020 (n = 4369, "Pandemic Puppies"). While the majority of the peak pandemic changes documented in 2020 had returned to their 2019 pre-pandemic baseline, others persisted into 2021. Multinomial logistic regression models revealed that the shifts during 2020 towards owners viewing their puppy pre-purchase over video calls or via video recordings/photos rather than in-person and towards collecting their puppy from outside of their breeders' property rather than inside had persisted into 2021 and had not returned to pre-pandemic levels. Year-on-year significant rises in the number of puppies sold with a passport were documented between 2019 and 2021, with over 1 in 10 2021 puppies having been sold with a passport, the figure more than doubling since 2019. An increasing number of these puppies sold with a passport were under the minimum legal age for import at sale. Going forward, these concerning changes require further monitoring and human behaviour change interventions to tackle, including increased buyer awareness but also legislative approaches to prevent the greatest harm.

The UK recorded sharp rises in puppy purchasing during the 2020 phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, with many first-time dog owners purchasing puppies to improve their mental health during this challenging period. Government restrictions on movement and social interaction during the pandemic led to animal welfare concerns over puppies’ reduced time-sensitive exposures to key environmental and social stimuli during their critical developmental period. This study aimed to compare demographics, health and early-life experiences of puppies purchased and brought home < 16 weeks of age between 23 March–31 December 2020 (“Pandemic Puppies”), with dogs purchased and brought home < 16 weeks during the same date period in 2019 (“2019 puppies”). An online survey of UK-based puppy owners was conducted between 10 November and 31 December 2020 with valid responses representing 5517 puppies (Pandemic Puppies: n = 4369; 2019 puppies: n = 1148). Multivariable logistic regression modelling revealed that Pandemic Puppies were less likely to have attended puppy training classes (67.9% 2019 vs. 28.9% 2020; p < 0.001) or had visitors to their home (94.5% 2019 vs. 81.8% 2020; p < 0.001) aged < 16 weeks compared with 2019 puppies. Fewer Pandemic Puppies underwent veterinary checks prior to purchase than 2019 puppies (2019: 91.3% vs. 2020: 87.4%; p < 0.001), but more were sold with a passport (2019: 4.1% vs. 2020: 7.1%; p < 0.001). Pandemic Puppies were significantly more likely to be ‘Designer Crossbreeds’ (2019: 18.8% vs. 2020: 26.1%; p < 0.001) and less likely to be Kennel Club registered than 2019 puppies (2019: 58.2% vs. 2020: 46.2%; p < 0.001). Greater support from veterinary and animal behavioural professionals is likely needed to ameliorate the health and behavioural impacts of growing up in a pandemic upon this vulnerable population.

Invasive species are one of the greatest drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide, and the eradication of invasive species from islands is a highly efficient management strategy. Because eradication operations require large financial investments, uncertainty over the magnitude of impacts of both invasive species and their removal can impede the willingness of decision makers to invest in eradication. Such uncertainty is prevalent for long-lived species that display an inherent lag between life stages affected by invasive species and those used for population status assessments. Albatrosses are amongst the longest-living bird species and are threatened on land by invasive species and at sea by industrial fisheries. As in many seabird species, usually only a segment of the population (breeding adults) is used for status assessments, making it difficult to assess albatross population trends and the potential benefit of conservation action, such as the management of predatory invasive species. We used population monitoring and mark-recapture data to estimate the past population trajectory of the critically endangered Tristan albatross Diomedea dabbenena by accounting for unobservable birds at sea in an integrated population model. We then projected the future population trajectory of Tristan albatrosses for scenarios with or without predation by invasive house mice Mus musculus on their main breeding site, Gough Island. The adult breeding population remained stable between 2004 and 2021, but breeding success was low (31%) and our model indicated that the total population (including unobservable immature birds) decreased from a median estimate of 9,795 to 7,752 birds. Eradicating invasive mice leading to a two-fold increase in breeding success would result in a 1.8-7.6 times higher albatross population by 2050 (median estimate 10,352 individuals) than without this intervention. Low reproductive output for long-lived species may lead to a cryptic population decrease, which can be obscured from readily available counts of breeding pairs by changes in the population structure. Mouse eradication is necessary to halt the ongoing population decrease of the Tristan albatross, even if this decrease is not yet apparent in the breeding population size.

The rise in antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in bacteria is reducing therapeutic options for livestock and human health, with a paucity of information globally. To fill this gap, a One-Health approach was taken by sampling livestock on farms (n = 52), abattoir (n = 8), and animal markets (n = 10), and in-contact humans in Southeast Nigeria. Extended spectrum cephalosporin (ESC)-resistant (ESC-R) Escherichia coli was selectively cultured from 975 healthy livestock faecal swabs, and hand swabs from in-contact humans. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) was performed on all ESC-R E. coli. For isolates showing a multi-drug resistance (MDR) phenotype (n = 196), quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) was performed for confirmation of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) and carbapenemase genes. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) was performed on a subset (n = 157) for detailed molecular characterisation. The results showed ESC-R E. coli was present in 41.2% of samples, with AST results indicating 48.8% of isolates were phenotypically MDR. qPCR confirmed presence of ESBL genes, with blaCTX-M present in all but others in a subset [blaTEM (62.8%) and blaSHV (0.5%)] of isolates; none harboured transferable carbapenemase genes. Multi-locus sequence typing identified 34 Sequence Types (ST) distributed among different sampling levels; ST196 carrying blaCTX-M-55 was predominant in chickens. Large numbers of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the core genome of isolates, even within the same clade by phylogenetic analysis, indicated high genetic diversity. AMR genotyping indicated the predominant blaCTX-M variant was blaCTX-M-15 (87.9%), although blaCTX-M-55, blaCTX-M-64, and blaCTX-M-65 were present; it was notable that blaCTX-M-1, common in livestock, was absent. Other predominant AMR genes included: sul2, qnrS1, strB, blaTEM-1b, tetA-v2, and dfrA14, with prevalence varying according to host livestock species. A blaCTX-M-15 harbouring plasmid from livestock isolates in Ebonyi showed high sequence identity to one from river/sewage water in India, indicating this ESBL plasmid to be globally disseminated, being present beyond the river environment. In conclusion, ESC-R E. coli was widespread in livestock and in-contact humans from Southeast Nigeria. WGS data indicated the isolates were genetically highly diverse, probably representing true diversity of wild type E. coli; they were likely to be MDR with several harbouring blaCTX-M-15. Surprisingly, human isolates had highest numbers of AMR genes and pigs the least.

Background Demand for intentional crosses of purebred dog breeds, often labelled ‘designer crossbreeds’ (e.g., Labrador Retriever X Poodle, the ‘Labradoodle’), has recently increased in the UK. This study aimed to explore this phenomenon by comparing pre-purchase motivations, pre-purchase and purchase behaviours of UK owners of designer crossbred puppies purchased during 2019-2020 with those of owners of purebred puppies purchased during the same period. Results Data were collected in an online cross-sectional survey between November-December 2020. Responses from n = 6293 puppies (designer crossbred puppies: n = 1575; purebred puppies: n = 4718) were analysed. Perceived hypoallergenicity was cited as a motivator for breed/crossbreed choice by almost half of designer crossbreed owners (47.1%), six times more than purebred dog owners (7.86%; odds ratio [OR]: 9.12, 95% CI: 7.70-10.8). Designer crossbred puppies were more likely to have been acquired via a general selling website (e.g., Gumtree; 13.8%) compared to purebred puppies (7.67%; OR: 2.19, 95% CI: 1.77-2.71), or an animal-specific selling websites (e.g., Pets4Homes; 55.7%) compared to purebred puppies (37.4%; OR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.65-2.17). Designer crossbreed owners were less likely to see their puppy in person prior to purchase than purebred owners (60.4% vs. 67.0%, respectively; OR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.64-0.85), and at purchase, designer crossbred puppies were less likely to be seen with their mother (73.1% vs. 79.8%, respectively; OR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.70-0.95), and littermates (67.7% vs. 78.1%, respectively; OR: 0.63, 95% CI: 0.55-0.73). Designer crossbreeds had a significantly higher purchase price, with 25.7% of designer crossbreed puppies costing £2000-£2999 compared to 15.1% of purebred puppies ( X 2 = 207.31, p < 0.001). Conclusions The recent boom in designer crossbreeds in the UK has been fuelled by a desire for perceived hypoallergenic and generally healthy dogs that fit the lifestyles of households with children and limited experience with dogs. Some sought-after traits in designer crossbreeds are misconceptions that risk canine welfare, including relinquishment risk, if owner expectations are not met. Purchasing practices fuelling this boom support irresponsible breeding and selling practices, which combined with reduced pressure for health testing from buyers, may result in a higher disease burden and poorer future welfare for this growing designer dog population.

Despite the medical and scientific advances of the 20th and 21st centuries, emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) remain a constant threat to public and animal health worldwide. At the same time, the world is experiencing considerable changes – in climate, land use, biodiversity and microbial resistance – which is particularly disturbing in light of the fact that 'change' has been cited as the main driver of infectious disease emergence. Conversely, though, we never had such a varied range of tools at our disposal with which to develop our understanding of the complex mechanisms leading to emergence and thereby reduce the risks associated with EIDs. This chapter looks at what EIDs are and why they occur, followed by a brief overview of a range of novel scientific techniques for expanding our knowledge of the ecology and evolution of such diseases, including the use of internet-based surveillance to provide rapid identification of potential threats, cluster detection and predictive spatial modelling and molecular genome sequencing.

Background Cysticercosis is a zoonotic neglected tropical disease (NTD) that affects humans and pigs following the ingestion of Taenia solium eggs. Human cysticercosis poses a substantial public health burden in endemic countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) aims to target high-endemicity settings with enhanced interventions in 17 countries by 2030. Between 2008 and 2010, Colombia undertook a national baseline serosurvey of unprecedented scale, which led to an estimated seroprevalence of T. solium cysticercus antibodies among the general population of 8.6%. Here, we use contemporary geostatistical approaches to analyse this unique dataset with the aim of understanding the spatial distribution and risk factors associated with human cysticercosis in Colombia to inform how best to target intervention strategies. Methods We used a geostatistical model to estimate individual and household risk factors associated with seropositivity to T. solium cysticercus antibodies from 29,253 people from 133 municipalities in Colombia. We used both independent and spatially structured random effects at neighbourhood/village and municipality levels to account for potential clustering of exposure to T. solium . We present estimates of the distribution and residual correlation of seropositivity at the municipality level. Results High seroprevalence was identified in municipalities located in the north and south of Colombia, with spatial correlation in seropositivity estimated up to approximately 140 km. Statistically significant risk factors associated with seropositivity to T. solium cysticercus were related to age, sex, educational level, socioeconomic status, use of rainwater, consumption of partially cooked/raw pork meat and possession of dogs. Conclusions In Colombia, the distribution of human cysticercosis is influenced by socioeconomic considerations, education and environmental factors related to the spread of T. solium eggs. This information can be used to tailor national intervention strategies, such as targeting spatial hotspots and more highly exposed groups, including displaced people and women. Large-scale seroprevalence surveys accompanied by geospatial mapping are an essential step towards reaching the WHO’s 2021‒2030 NTD roadmap targets. Graphical Abstract

Widespread media reports suggest that unusually high numbers of the public purchased, or sought to purchase, puppies following the first ‘lockdown’ phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK, dubbed “Pandemic Puppies”. This study aimed to explore this phenomenon by comparing pre-purchase motivations and behaviours, and purchase behaviours of UK owners purchasing puppies aged < 16 weeks from 23 March 2020–31 December 2020 with those of owners who purchased puppies during the same date-period in 2019. An online survey was conducted during November-December 2020, from which 5517 valid responses were analysed (2019 puppies: n = 1148; 2020 ‘Pandemic Puppies’: n = 4369). Over 1 in 10 Pandemic Puppy owners had not considered purchasing a puppy before the pandemic, and 2 in 5 felt their decision to purchase a puppy had been influenced by the pandemic, most commonly by having more time to care for a dog (86.7%). Multivariable logistic regression models revealed that Pandemic Puppy owners were more likely to be first-time dog owners and have children in their household, were less likely to seek out a breeder that performed health testing on their breeding dog(s) or view their puppy in-person, and were more likely to pay a deposit without seeing their puppy. At purchase, Pandemic Puppies were more likely to be younger, delivered or collected from outside their breeders’ property, seen without their littermates, and cost > £2000 compared with 2019 puppies. Changes in puppy purchasing during the pandemic raise welfare concerns for this unique population, including relinquishment, behavioural problems and poor health.

Leptospirosis is an important global zoonotic disease that affects a wide range of mammalian species. Canine leptospirosis outbreaks have been reported after metereological events such as flooding (eg. in Brazil and the United States of America) suggesting an environmental association, but there has been no such study in Great Britain (GB). The distribution of cases across GB is also unreported. Objectives of this study were to: (1) assess the spatio-temporal variation of leptospirosis test submissions (2) explore associations between agroecological risk factors and distribution of different canine leptospirosis serogroups in GB, and (3) generate probability of presence maps for the different serogroups. Data analysed comprised laboratory submissions (n = 3986) to IDEXX laboratories between 1st January 2009 and 31st December 2018 for PCR or MAT leptospirosis testing. Spatial and seasonal scan statistics were used to investigate spatial and temporal clustering of positive tests, logistic regression was used to identify significant agroecological risk factors for positive tests, and the Maxent algorithm was used to model the environmental niche of four serogroups. There was an increased risk of a positive test result in the West Midlands of England (relative risk = 2.16) and between October and January (relative risk = 1.54). Logistic regression identified season and region to be significantly associated with a positive diagnosis,with higher odds of a positive test in Autumn (OR = 1.86 95 %CI 1.29-2.69) and Winter (OR = 1.51, 95 %CI 1.02-2.23) and in the East (OR = 2.20, 95 %CI = 1.31-3.71) and West Midlands (OR = 2.32, 95 %CI 1.45-3.71). The increased test-positive proportion in Autumn together with the increased odds of a positive diagnosis in Autumn suggests there may be a seasonal pattern to the canine leptospirosis in GB. The most important variable associated with higher leptospirosis presence in all ecological niche models was higher average annual temperature. The importance and retention of other variables differed between serogroups. Overall, a higher probability of leptospirosis presence was predicted in southern England and a low probability in Scotland and northern England. Although leptospirosis vaccine usage provides protection against the majority of serogroups identified here, one is not represented in the currently licensed vaccine formulations and therefore leptospirosis should remain a differential diagnosis in vaccinated dogs demonstrating consistent clinical signs of the disease.

ObjectivesThe study aimed to estimate the incidence and prevalence of feline lymphoma in cats attending primary‐care practices across the UK and to identify patient‐based and environmental (radon and pesticide exposure) risk factors.Materials and MethodsCase records from the VetCompass programme from primary‐care veterinary practices in the UK were searched for a diagnosis of lymphoma in cats in 2016. Cases were required to have had an external laboratory confirmed diagnosis based on cytology and/or histopathology. A nested case–control study design was used to identify risk factors for lymphoma using multivariable logistic regression.ResultsFrom a cohort of 562,446 cats under veterinary care at VetCompass participating practices in 2016, a total of 271 lymphoma cases were identified (prevalence: 48/100,000, 95% confidence interval (CI) 44 to 56/100,000; incidence 32/100,000, 95% CI 26 to 35/100,000). There were 180 incident lymphoma cases and 803 controls, all aged 2 years and older. Male (odds ratio (OR) 1.7, 95% CI 1.2 to 2.4), insured (OR 3.6, 95% CI 2.3 to 5.6) and older cats (compared to cats 2 to <5 years, OR 5.0, 95% CI 2.8 to 8.8) were associated with increased odds of lymphoma diagnosis. Vaccinated cats were associated with decreased odds (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.5 to 1.0) compared to unvaccinated cats, although the type of vaccination received was not statistically significant. Breed and environmental factors studied were not associated with a diagnosis of lymphoma.Clinical SignificanceThis is the first study to estimate the frequency and report risk factors for lymphoma in cats attending UK primary‐care practice.

Sheeppox and goatpox (SGP) are transboundary, highly contagious diseases affecting sheep and goats with characteristic clinical signs. SGP affect populations of small ruminants in Africa, Asia and the Middle East and, as a result, threaten farmers' livelihoods. Despite their importance, studies looking at factors that increase the risk of sheeppox-virus (SPPV) and goatpox-virus (GTPV) exposure and infection are limited. A cross-sectional study was conducted in three states of Northern Nigeria (Bauchi, Kaduna and Plateau) to determine the sero-prevalence and spatial patterns of SGP, and identify risk factors for SPPV/GTPV exposure at animal and household level. Sera samples were collected from 1,800 small ruminants from 300 households. Data on putative risk factors were collected using a standardised questionnaire. Twenty-nine small ruminants were sero-positive to SGP - apparent weighted sero-prevalence 2.0 %; 95 % C.I. 1.1-.3.0 %. Sero-positive animals came from 19 (6.3 %) households. Analysis of the questionnaire showed that a fifth (20.3 %) of farmers claimed to have experienced SGP outbreaks previously in their flocks, with 33 (1.8 %) of the individual animals sampled in this study reported to have had clinical signs. At animal level, the odds of being sero-positive were higher in older animals (>24months; OR = 8.0, p = 0.008 vs ≤24 months) and small ruminants with a history of clinical SGP (OR = 16.9, p = 0.01). Bringing new small ruminants into the household and having a history of SGP in the flock were the main factors identified at household level. Households were less likely to be sero-positive if the time between bringing animals into the household and sampling was over a year (PR = 0.31, p = 0.05), while households with a history of SGP were more likely to be sero-positive regardless of the timeframe. Important spatial heterogeneity was found. The Bayes smooth rate ranged from 0.06 to 4.10 % across local government areas (LGA), with LGA in the north-east or north-west of the study area identified as hot-spots for SGP exposure. Results from this study shed new light on the understanding of SGP epidemiology and provide key inputs to design risk-based surveillance and intervention programmes in the area.

Nearly a decade into Defra's current eradication strategy, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) remains a serious animal health problem in England, with c.30,000 cattle slaughtered annually in the fight against this insidious disease. There is an urgent need to improve our understanding of bTB risk in order to enhance the current disease control policy. Machine learning approaches applied to big datasets offer a potential way to do this. Regularized regression and random forest machine learning methodologies were implemented using 2016 herd-level data to generate the best possible predictive models for a bTB incident in England and its three surveillance risk areas (High-risk area [HRA], Edge area [EA] and Low-risk area [LRA]). Their predictive performance was compared and the best models in each area were used to characterize herds according to risk. While all models provided excellent discrimination, random forest models achieved the highest balanced accuracy (i.e. average of sensitivity and specificity) in England, HRA and LRA, whereas the regularized regression LASSO model did so in the EA. The time since the last confirmed incident was resolved was the only variable in the top-ten ranking in all areas according to both types of models, which highlights the importance of bTB history as a predictor of a new incident . Risk categorisation based on Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis was carried out using the best predictive models in each area setting a 99 % threshold value for sensitivity and specificity (97 % in the LRA). Thirteen percent of herds in the whole of England as well as in its HRA, 14 % in its EA and 31 % in its LRA were classified as high-risk. These could be selected for the deployment of additional disease control measures at national or area level. In this way, low-risk herds within the area considered would not be penalised unnecessarily by blanket control measures and limited resources be used more efficiently. The methodology presented in this paper demonstrates a way to accurately identify high-risk farms to inform a targeted disease control and prevention strategy in England that supplements existing population strategies.

OBJECTIVES:Transverse sectioning of skin biopsy specimens has revolutionised assessment of human alopecia by demonstration of every hair in each specimen, allowing quantitative evaluation of follicular activity. Since only vertical sectioning is performed routinely in veterinary laboratories, we aimed to determine whether transverse sectioning was a valuable technique in assessment of canine alopecia. METHODS:Paired vertical and transverse sections of biopsy specimens from 31 alopecic dogs were examined independently in triplicate in random order and blinded to previous diagnosis using a standard check-list proforma. Assessments of key features (follicular activity [anagen/telogen], infundibular hyperkeratosis, sebaceous gland abnormalities, pigment clumping, dermal inflammation) by each sectioning method were compared. RESULTS:In the 31 cases, (atrophic [n = 13], dysplastic [n = 12], inflammatory diseases [n = 6]), follicular inactivity scores (median, [lower-upper quartile]) in transverse sections significantly exceeded those in vertical sections (transverse 4 [3-5], vertical 3 [2-4]). Agreement between the two sectioning planes was moderate for infundibular hyperkeratosis (kappa = 0.5210) and dermal inflammation (0.4351), fair for sebaceous gland abnormalities (0.3966) and pigment clumping (0.2197), but slight for follicular activity (0.1041). Vertical sectioning demonstrated diagnostically important epidermal pathology (n = 2) and dermal thinning (n = 3) whereas transverse sectioning enhanced assessment of hair growth phase (n = 11), follicular structure and architecture (n = 11), and focal luminal or mural folliculitides (n = 3). CLINICAL SIGNIFICANCE:Transverse sectioning confers significant benefits and complements traditional vertical sectioning in the histological assessment of canine hair follicle diseases, particularly when subtle abnormalities comprise distorted compound follicle architecture, hair cycle arrest or when relatively few adnexal structures are affected.

Cutaneous and renal glomerular vasculopathy (CRGV) has been recognized as a potentially life-threatening condition of dogs in the UK since 2012, although there was a single (non-azotaemic) case reported in the UK in 2000. Prior to that, CRGV was recognized in the 1980s in southern USA as a disease affecting solely racing greyhounds (which gave rise to the colloquial name of ‘Alabama rot’). CRGV manifests as ulcerative skin lesions, generally sparing the dorsum. It is variably associated with systemic signs including anaemia, thrombocytopenia and acute kidney injury, which, when it develops, is often severe and fatal. CRGV is characterized histopathologically as a thrombotic microangiopathy. To date in the UK, more than 230 dogs of varying breed and age have been humanely destroyed and histopathologically confirmed to be suffering from CRGV. The aetiology remains unknown, but the seasonal distribution (highest case incidence November–May each year) suggests that environmental or climatic factors may play a role in disease development. Further research to determine the aetiology and improve ante-mortem diagnostic testing, therapeutic options and preventive strategies is urgently needed.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic vector-borne neglected tropical disease transmitted by female Phlebotomine sand flies. It is distributed globally but a large proportion of cases (70-75%) are found in just ten countries. CL is endemic in Jordan yet there is a lack of robust entomological data and true reporting status is unknown. This study aimed to map habitat suitability of the main CL vector, Phlebotomus papatasi, in Jordan as a proxy for CL risk distribution to (i) identify areas potentially at risk of CL and (ii) estimate the human population at risk of CL. A literature review identified potential environmental determinants for P. papatasi occurrence including temperature, humidity, precipitation, vegetation, wind speed, presence of human households and presence of the fat sand rat. Each predictor variable was (a) mapped; (b) standardized to a common size, resolution and scale using fuzzy membership functions; (c) assigned a weight using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP); and (d) included within a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) model to produce monthly maps illustrating the predicted habitat suitability (between 0 and 1) for P. papatasi in Jordan. Suitability increased over the summer months and was generally highest in the north-western regions of the country and along the Jordan Valley, areas which largely coincided with highly populated parts of the country, including areas where Syrian refugee camps are located. Habitat suitability in Jordan for the main CL vector-P. papatasi-was heterogeneous over both space and time. Suitable areas for P. papatasi coincided with highly populated areas of Jordan which suggests that the targeted implementation of control and surveillance strategies in defined areas such as those with very high CL vector suitability (>0.9 suitability) would focus only on 3.42% of the country's total geographic area, whilst still including a substantial proportion of the population at risk: estimates range from 72% (European Commission's Global Human Settlement population grid) to 89% (Gridded Population of the World) depending on the human population density data used. Therefore, high impact public health interventions could be achieved within a reduced spatial target, thus maximizing the efficient use of resources.

Routine diagnostic data from laboratories are an important source of information for passive animal health surveillance. In Great Britain, the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) database includes records of diagnostic submissions made to a nationwide network of 28 veterinary post-mortem facilities (VPFs). Data on "diagnosis not reached" (DNR), i.e. where submissions do not lead to a confirmed diagnosis, are analysed quarterly to look for unexpectedly high incidences of DNRs which could indicate the presence of a new or emerging disease in British livestock populations. The objective of the present study was to provide a better understanding about the reasons of DNR occurrence and to inform improvements of the coverage and reporting of this kind of surveillance data. A subset of the VIDA database comprising diagnostic submissions from cattle received from 2013 to 2017 (122,444 records) was analysed. A mixed-effects multivariable logistic regression model, accounting for clustering by farm and county, was used to investigate associations between potential predictors and DNR. The variables included in the model were: VPF identity, animal sex, age, production purpose, main presenting sign of the animal from which the sample was obtained, and sample submission type. The variable that showed the strongest association with DNR was the main presenting sign of the animal, followed by submission type, VPF identity, animal age, sex, and production purpose, in that order. Submissions from animals with abortion as the main clinical sign had the highest odds ratio (OR 21.6, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 19.6-23.9, with mastitis taken as the baseline). Submissions where neither carcasses (i.e. a whole dead animal provided for post-mortem examination) nor foetuses (i.e. an unborn dead animal) were provided had approximately 12 times the odds of being DNR, compared to submissions of a carcass (OR 11.6, 95 % CI 10.7-12.5). In addition, submission type and main presenting sign can be considered as important confounders in the association between the other predictors and DNR. This study has helped characterise DNR occurrence and suggests some possible improvements that could be made to the passive surveillance system investigated, such as encouraging greater carcase submission, accounting for identified issues when interpreting increased occurrence of DNR and further investigating reduced submissions or greater DNR occurrence in some geographical regions.