An experimental multi-parameter structural monitoring system has been installed on the Kurpsai dam, western Kyrgyz Republic. This system consists of equipment for seismic and strain measurements for making longer- (days, weeks, months) and shorter- (minutes, hours) term observations, dealing with, for example seasonal (longer) effects or the response of the dam to ground motion from noise or seismic events. Fibre-optic strain sensors allow the seasonal and daily opening and closing of the spaces between the dam’s segments to be tracked. For the seismic data, both amplitude (in terms of using differences in amplitudes in the Fourier spectra for mapping the modes of vibration of the dam) and their time–frequency distribution for a set of small to moderate seismic events are investigated and the corresponding phase variabilities (in terms of lagged coherency) are evaluated. Even for moderate levels of seismic-induced ground motion, some influence on the structural response can be detected, which then sees the dam quickly return to its original state. A seasonal component was identified in the strain measurements, while levels of noise arising from the operation of the dam's generators and associated water flow have been provisionally identified.

Natural hazards and climate-related disasters disregard political borders, where additional barriers can complicate mitigation, response and recovery efforts within and between the sectors of Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR). The ESPREssO Project (Enhancing Synergies for Disaster Prevention in the European Union) aims to improve management of transboundary disasters by encouraging closer synergies between the CCA and DRR communities. Using targeted stakeholder interviews, questionnaires, Think Tank discussions and purpose-built serious games, ESPREssO draws on both CCA and DRR stakeholder experiences and informed perspectives in order to identify current gaps. Set within a fictitious border zone, ESPREssO's RAMSETE II serious game challenges CCA and DRR stakeholders in making coordinated decisions before, during and after a simulated disaster, in protection of population and critical infrastructure. Results highlight the essential role of local governance mechanisms as the sharp end of the policy wedge, with current examples of proactivity that require to be championed and supported at national level in order to thrive. These good practice examples reflect the fact that transboundary settings, despite their challenges, act as fertile ground for mutual growth, offering opportunities for CCA and DRR communities to find innovative ways to cooperate and unite in developing synergies and strengthening their mutual efforts towards resilience. Stakeholders emphasise a need to invest more resources in informal cooperation and call on policy makers to recognise that each border zone raises its own unique set of complex challenges that requires flexibility and special consideration by transboundary authorities in management of disasters.

The asymmetric policy and science domains, face a number of challenges when it comes to managing disaster risk. On the one hand, policy stakeholders require reliable, high-quality information in order to make wellinformed decisions in a timely manner, while on the other, creation of sound scientific information upon which such decisions can and should be made, requires time and thoroughness. As a result, uncertainty plays a crucial role when it comes to integrating scientific information into the decision-making process. To explore further the ways in which uncertainty affects decision-making, the ESPREssO Project developed a serious game for disaster risk reduction (DRR) stakeholders to "play," termed RAMSETE III. It aims to assess how uncertainty impacts processing of early warning information and subsequent decision-making (such as ordering evacuations), embedded within a fictitious geographic, policy and practice setting. Serious gaming can serve as an useful tool to allow stakeholders with very different backgrounds to work closer together in a simulated environment. Different operational timescales and misunderstandings arising from differing perceptions of risk and uncertainty between policy stakeholders and scientists, are identified as key barriers hindering effective integration of policy and science in disaster management. Hence, RAMSETE III was employed to initiate open discourse between DRR stakeholders across the science-policy spectrum. The main outcome of this game emphasizes that to overcome these identified barriers, a collaborative, interdisciplinary, and inclusive approach is needed as a first-step foundation, with enhanced efforts in communication and development of common terminologies to assist strengthening of mutual understanding.

The ESPREssO Project set out to propose ways to inform more coherent national and European approaches on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). A critical step in this process is the identification of existing barriers to effective collaboration, finding new areas of common ground, and ways to enhance co-operation with regards to CCA and DRR policymaking in Europe. This is particularly important considering the potential relationships between CCA and DRR activities at the regional, national, European and global levels. Serious games have emerged as a valuable tool to communicate information and catalyse discussion in many policy arenas. The games have the power to inform, mainly by exposing strengths and weaknesses of a system but not necessarily create policy choices. This paper presents the development process and rationale behind creation of RAMSETE I, a serious game developed by and for the ESPREssO Project to elicit information from its stakeholders in aiming to inform synergies between CCA and DRR sectors. The results assess its application as a device to frame discussions during an international Think Tank workshop. The serious game focused on three particular aspects of CCA and DRR policy interactions: (1) separation of administrative responsibilities and the use of different terminology, (2) the ongoing competition for funding and political will as well as (3) difficulties regarding the top-down implementation of policies. The rules and design process are presented briefly, before going in-depth into the information gleaned during its application in the workshop.

Plans to construct hydroelectric dams in the Kyrgyz Republic and the need to assess the state of existing structures, especially with respect to earthquakes and landslides, requires structural health monitoring (SHM) systems that provide rapid and relevant information to the operators of such structures, and to decision makers in the event of emergencies. The BMBFfunded project MI-DAM (Multi-parameter monitoring and risk assessment of hydro-electric dams in the Kyrgyz Republic) aims to develop, install and test a robust, cost-effective and flexible system for the Kurpsai hydropower station in western Kyrgyzstan. One aspect will involve the short-term monitoring of the dam’s structural response to earthquake shocks and extreme operational regimes. The dam is currently being monitored by means of multi-parameter sensors placed at characteristic points on the structure and its surroundings. This allows critical monitored parameters (and, correspondingly, the fragility curves) to be directly integrated into on-site calculations for more responsive decision-making.

Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Disaster Risk Management (DRM), and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) involve a variety of stakeholders with different backgrounds, organizational frameworks, divergent concerns, and sometimes competing agendas. This requires forums where such groups can meet in order to enhance understanding, reconcile different views, and potentially assist each other in meeting their respective goals. One means of establishing such an exchange involves serious games. During the ESPREssO (Enhancing Synergies for disaster Prevention in the European Union) project, three such games, referred to as RAMSETE (Risk Assessment Model Simulation for Emergency Training Exercise), were developed. They were based on table-top, role-playing, scenario-based exercises, and their purpose was for stakeholder information elicitation about policy issues related to DRR, DRM, and CCA. Participants in the exercises were assigned roles where they interacted and negotiated in order to deal with the presented scenarios. The scenarios were primarily concerned with selecting an optimal set of policies to deal best with the issue in question. The games, while sometimes including an operational element, were meant to examine the motivations behind the decisions made, rather than to test or to train in response protocols. The participants in general found the games to be useful for framing discussions about complex issues, while their problem-solving character was appreciated and enjoyed. Such games allow stakeholders to openly discuss and challenge ideas, policies, and processes in a manner they would not normally do in their daily activities, with other professionals who they would not necessarily be in frequent contact with.

The Kyrgyz Republic is located in a highly seismic region subjected to devastating earthquakes that have caused loss of life, destroyed homes and ruined livelihoods in historical and recent times. In order to better understand the risk from earthquakes across the entire country, a nationwide seismic hazard and risk management study for buildings was undertaken. Across the Kyrgyz Republic, there are 150,000 residential buildings with an estimated portfolio value of 60 billion USD, 5,500 school buildings with an estimated value of 1.5 billion USD, 333 fire station buildings with a value of 500 million USD and 185 hospital buildings with a value of 9 billion USD. In this study, direct earthquake losses due to ground shaking have been quantified for each building asset portfolio using a probabilistic hazard and risk assessment for the entire country as well as twelve (12) selected credible scenario earthquake hazard and risk calculations. Risk assessments were performed independently for each building portfolio, using exposure and vulnerability models specifically tailored to the characteristics of each group of assets. The probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessment confirmed that the country is subjected to moderate to high seismic hazard across most of the country and that significant average annual losses are expected (for example, up to 4% of GDP for the residential buildings portfolio). For the considered scenario events, the estimated monetary losses (mean) range from 138 million to 11 billion USD (i.e. up to 150% of GDP while fatalities range from 200 to 10,300 people. These findings will allow stakeholders to make informed decisions for upgrades and investment to reduce losses, better plan for emergency response and inform longer term recovery after earthquake disasters.

The Kyrgyz Republic is located in a highly seismic region subjected to devastating earthquakes that have caused loss of life, destroyed buildings and infrastructure and ruined livelihoods in historical and recent times. In order to better understand the hazard and the risk from earthquakes to critical assets, including transport infrastructure, a national level seismic hazard and risk study was undertaken. Across the Kyrgyz Republic there are around 4,300 km of four-lane primary roads, 43,000 km of two-lane secondary roads and over 1,400 road bridges with an estimated total value of USD 34 billion. The study included a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the country as well as twelve (12) representative scenario earthquake events hazard calculations. The mean expected direct economic losses to road transport infrastructure associated with the individual scenario earthquake events was estimated to be in the range of USD 60 million to 1 billion for roads and in the range of USD 2.4 to 22 million for bridges. These findings will allow stakeholders to make informed decisions for upgrades and new investment for transport infrastructure to reduce losses, better plan for emergency response and inform longer term recovery after earthquake disasters.

The Kyrgyz Republic is located within a region of high seismic hazard with earthquakes of magnitude Mw≥5 occurring about once per month, and potentially devastating earthquakes of magnitude Mw≥7 occurring with recurrence intervals of several decades. In order to better understand the hazard and the risk from earthquakes across the entire country, a national level seismic hazard and risk management study was undertaken. This paper describes the seismic risk assessment and associated risk management strategy for schools, hospitals, fire stations and residential building portfolios, as well as transport infrastructure (which includes roads and bridges). A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment was undertaken for the entire country and new national level seismic hazard maps produced. To specifically investigate the seismic risk to buildings and transport infrastructure, two complementary approaches were undertaken: a fully probabilistic event-based seismic risk study, and the evaluation of the impact of 12 earthquake scenarios identified based on up-to-date information on regional tectonics. The resulting loss estimates are presented in terms of the geographic distribution of fatalities, damage to assets and the associated economic losses. Scenario earthquake monetary losses are estimated to range from US$140m to US$11bn (i.e., up to 150% of Gross Domestic Product), while fatalities estimates range from 200 people to over 10,000 people. The number of collapsed residential buildings expected for the 1 Director, Geohazards and Risk, Arup, London, UK, matthew.free@arup.com 2 Associate Director, Arup, London, UK, damian.grant@arup.com 3 Senior Engineer, Arup, London, UK, yannis.fourniadis@arup.com 4 Senior Engineer, Arup, London, UK, thomas.ader@arup.com 5 Engineer, Arup, London, UK (currently at AIR-Worldwide London, UK), costa.sousa@fe.up.pt 6 Researcher, GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, kevin@gfz-potsdam.de 7 Researcher GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, pittore@gfz-potsdam.de 8 Director, CAIAG, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, b.moldobekov@caiag.kg 9 Researcher, CAIAG, Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, ch.ormukov@caiag.kg Free M, Grant D, Fourniadis Y, Ader T, Sousa L, Fleming K, Pittore M, Moldobekov B and Ormukov C, Seismic Hazard and Risk in the Kyrgyz Republic, Central Asia. Proceedings of the 11 National Conference in Earthquake Engineering, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Los Angeles, CA. 2018. scenarios could range from 1,600 to 20,000. Direct economic losses to roads and bridges from individual scenario earthquakes were estimated to range between US$60m and US$1bn. These findings have been used to allow stakeholders to make informed risk management decisions. More specifically, they were used in the development of risk management strategy options, informed by cost-benefit analyses, as well as in development of emergency response management plans. Eleventh U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering Integrating Science, Engineering & Policy June 25-29, 2018 Los Angeles, California Seismic Hazard and Risk in the Kyrgyz Republic, Central Asia M. Free, D. Grant, Y. Fourniadis, T. Ader, L. Sousa, K. Fleming, M. Pittore, B. Moldobekov, C. Ormukov

The paper presents a methodology for the multi-hazard fragility analysis of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake- and flood-prone areas due to liquefaction. The methodology has been applied for the area along the Rhine River reach and adjacent floodplains between the gauges at Andernach and Düsseldorf. Along this domain, the urban areas are partly protected by dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The fragility of the earthen dikes is analysed in terms of liquefaction potential, characterized by the factor of safety estimated using the procedure of Seed and Idriss (1971). Uncertainties in the geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered in a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Failure probability of the earthen structures is presented in the form of a fragility surface as a function of both seismic hazard and hydrologic/hydraulic load.

Central Asia is a region historically prone to seismic activity, and whose economies are rapidly evolving. A better understanding of the mediumand long-term impact of earthquakes is therefore paramount for local decision-makers and civil protection authorities in order to devise the most appropriate risk prevention and mitigation measures. Within the framework of the Earthquake Model for Central Asia (EMCA) project, a new probabilistic seismic hazard model (PSHA) has been developed and complemented with a set of relevant earthquake scenarios. The hazard model has been combined with a multi-resolution exposure model focusing on the residential building stock, for which a set of fragility and vulnerability models has been selected.The expected amount and spatial distribution of loss have been then computed, using the GEM’s OpenQuake-engine, in terms of both probabilistic estimates over different return periods (e.g. 475 years, corresponding to an exceedance probability of 10% over 50 years) and event-based scenarios. The losses have been evaluated considering both direct economical damage and human losses, two of the most relevant risk metrics for decision makers. The results of the assessment show that the impact of earthquakes may, for countries such as Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, easily compare with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and is therefore necessary to take a proactive stance in order to undertake efficient Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures in the region.

The development of earthquake early warning systems over the last decade has seen a number of studies that have focused either on improving the real-time estimation of seismological parameters, or on the rapid characterization of the possible damage suffered by a structure. However, the rapid increase in real-time seismic networks with stations installed in both the free field and inside buildings now offers the opportunity to combine the experience gained from these activities to develop a comprehensive real-time damage assessment scheme that, depending upon the time frame and spatial scale of interest, can provide useful information for a risk-based early warning system or for rapid loss assessment. Furthermore, newly developed instruments, with their enhanced computing capabilities, also offer the chance to combine early-warning procedures with the monitoring (during seismic crises) of a structure’s behavior. In this paper, an overview of the state of the art in this multidisciplinary field will be given, and an outlook provided as to possible future developments.

Handbook of Disaster Risk Reduction & Management, pp. 357-381 (2017) No AccessChapter 14: Multi-Risk Assessment and GovernanceArnaud Mignan, Nadejda Komendantova, Anna Scolobig, and Kevin FlemingArnaud MignanInstitute of Geophysics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ) NO H66, Sonneggstrasse 5, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland, Nadejda KomendantovaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, AustriaHuman-Environment Systems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ), Switzerland, Anna ScolobigHuman-Environment Systems, Department of Environmental Systems Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich (ETHZ), Switzerland, and Kevin FlemingCentre for Early Warning Systems, Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germanyhttps://doi.org/10.1142/9789813207950_0014Cited by:7 PreviousNext AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail Abstract: Multi-risk assessment involves the inclusion of hazard and risk interactions within the modeling of the disaster risk chain. These interactions include more than one disastrous event at the same time, cascading events, and how changes in exposure and vulnerability arise over time, including as a result of previous events. At a first glance, multi-risk assessment appears to be a better means of approaching disaster risk reduction actions. However, it is hindered by a lack of knowledge about the fundamental physical processes involved, difficulties in comparing hazards and risks of different types and, especially, the topic of this chapter, barriers within risk governance for the successful implementation of necessary risk mitigation actions. Such barriers include a lack of standardization in terminology, a deficiency in expertise in the range of disciplines that are relevant to multi-risk reduction planning, inadequate resources, and biases and barriers in communication between the relevant public and private actors, as well as between researchers and policy-makers. This chapter details some of the social, institutional and scientific barriers that are associated with the full consideration of multi-risk governance, and provides some suggestions as to how these may be overcome. Keywords: Multi-hazardmulti-risk assessmentmulti-risk governanceextreme eventcascadeGenMRcommunicationcivil protection stakeholderdecision-making FiguresReferencesRelatedDetailsCited By 7Involving Risk Reduction Practitioners and Other Experts in the Management of Super-Catastrophes via an Online Interactive PlatformArnaud Mignan, Loïc Mochel and Géraldine Ducos2 March 2022 | Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol. 10Improving Risk Knowledge for Planning Purposes: Critical Issues and Hints for EnhancementAdriana Galderisi and Giada Limongi1 September 2020Exploring the Space of Possibilities in Cascading Disasters with Catastrophe DynamicsArnaud Mignan and Ziqi Wang7 October 2020 | International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 17, No. 19A framework for understanding water-related multi-hazards in a sustainable development contextJulia M Docherty, Feng Mao, Wouter Buytaert, Julian RA Clark and David M Hannah30 January 2020 | Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment, Vol. 44, No. 2Mainstreaming Multi-Risk Approaches into PolicyAnna Scolobig, Nadejda Komendantova and Arnaud Mignan12 December 2017 | Geosciences, Vol. 7, No. 4Considering large earthquake clustering in seismic risk analysisArnaud Mignan, Laurentiu Danciu and Domenico Giardini31 August 2016 | Natural Hazards, Vol. 44Using reasoned imagination to learn about cascading hazards: a pilot studyArnaud Mignan, Anna Scolobig and Anne Sauron6 Jun 2016 | Disaster Prevention and Management, Vol. 25, No. 3 Handbook of Disaster Risk Reduction & ManagementMetrics History KeywordsMulti-hazardmulti-risk assessmentmulti-risk governanceextreme eventcascadeGenMRcommunicationcivil protection stakeholderdecision-makingPDF download

The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centers. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

The Multi-Parameter Wireless Sensing (MPwise) system is an innovative instrumental design that allows different sensor types to be combined with relatively high-performance computing and communications components. These units, which incorporate off-the-shelf components, can undertake complex information integration and processing tasks at the individual unit or node level (when used in a network), allowing the establishment of networks that are linked by advanced, robust and rapid communications routing and network topologies. The system (and its predecessors) was originally designed for earthquake risk mitigation, including earthquake early warning (EEW), rapid response actions, structural health monitoring, and site-effect characterization. For EEW, MPwise units are capable of on-site, decentralized, independent analysis of the recorded ground motion and based on this, may issue an appropriate warning, either by the unit itself or transmitted throughout a network by dedicated alarming procedures. The multi-sensor capabilities of the system allow it to be instrumented with standard strong- and weak-motion sensors, broadband sensors, MEMS (namely accelerometers), cameras, temperature and humidity sensors, and GNSS receivers. In this work, the MPwise hardware, software and communications schema are described, as well as an overview of its possible applications. While focusing on earthquake risk mitigation actions, the aim in the future is to expand its capabilities towards a more multi-hazard and risk mitigation role. Overall, MPwise offers considerable flexibility and has great potential in contributing to natural hazard risk mitigation.

As part of a seismic risk study sponsored by the World Bank, a revised seismic hazard map for the Kyrgyz Republic has been produced, using the OpenQuake-engine developed by the Global Earthquake Model Foundation (GEM). In this project, an earthquake catalogue spanning a period from 250 BCE to 2014 was compiled and processed through spatial and temporal declustering tools. The territory of the Kyrgyz Republic was divided into 31 area sources defined based on local seismicity, including a total area covering 200 km from the border. The results are presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA). In addition, macroseismic intensity estimates, making use of recent intensity prediction equations, were also provided, given that this measure is still widely used in Central Asia. In order to accommodate the associated epistemic uncertainty, three ground motion prediction equations were used in a logic tree structure. A set of representative earthquake scenarios were further identified based on historical data and the nature of the considered faults.