Federal policy changes in the management of carbon emissions from power plants offer a potent real-world example for examining air-land-water interactions and their implications for coastal water quality. We integrate models of energy (Integrated Planning Model (IPM)), air quality (Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) and water quality (SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW)) to investigate the potential water quality impacts of policy-driven changes in total nitrogen deposition in watersheds draining to US coastal areas. We estimate the combined effects of three recently proposed energy policy scenarios, population growth, and climate change. We decompose the combined effects into the roles of the individual components on the supply of riverine nitrogen for the entire US and eight coastal regions. We find that population growth is the most important driver of changes in coastal nitrogen flux. Energy policies play a minor role in offsetting the negative effects of population growth, although the effect varies by energy policy and region. The greatest population and policy effects are projected for the Gulf of Mexico. Given limited reductions in nitrogen emissions and deposition associated with energy policies, the net effect of policy and population changes is an increase in total nitrogen flux to all estuaries relative to the 2010 baseline. While population growth increases flux, and energy policies decrease flux in all regions, climate change can either increase or decrease flux depending on the region. That is because the relatively large individual effects of temperature and precipitation on watershed nitrogen processes work in opposing directions. The net result of the offsetting nature of individual climate processes varies in both magnitude and direction by coastal region. Further research is needed to sort out individual temperature and precipitation effects in different regions.

This paper is the culmination of several meaning-making activities between an external researcher, PES practitioners, and social scientist researchers who considered the unique contributions that can be made through RPPs on PES (that is, research-practice partnerships on public engagement with science). Based on the experiences from three RPP projects, the group noted that the PES context may be particularly suited to RPPs, and identified the importance of working as thinking-partners who support reciprocal decision-making. Recommendations are made in support of using these approaches to advance practical knowledge-building and reduce shared frustrations about the disconnect between research and practice in PES.

The transportation sector is now the primary contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the USA. The Transportation Climate Initiative (TCI), a partnership of 12 states and the District of Columbia currently under development, would implement a cap-and-invest program to reduce transportation sector emissions across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, including substantial investment in cycling and pedestrian infrastructure. Using outputs from an investment scenario model and the World Health Organization Health Economic Assessment Tool methodology, we estimate the mortality implications of increased active mobility and their monetized value for three different investment allocation scenarios considered by TCI policymakers. We conduct these analyses for all 378 counties in the TCI region. We find that even for the scenario with the smallest investment in active mobility, when it is fully implemented, TCI would result in hundreds of fewer deaths per year across the region, with monetized benefits in the billions of dollars annually. Under all scenarios considered, the monetized benefits from deaths avoided substantially exceed the direct infrastructure costs of investment. We conclude that investing proceeds in active mobility infrastructure is a cost-effective way of reducing mortality, especially in urban areas, providing a strong motivation for investment in modernization of the transportation system and further evidence of the health co-benefits of climate action.

This study initially reports on qualitative interviews (n = 17) with scientists at two Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) sites in the northeastern United States. These interviews suggest the need for greater attention to the role of communication professionals and institutional leadership in fostering high-quality public engagement. The study also reports on a follow-up quantitative survey (n = 68) conducted to better understand the degree to which LTER scientists' views about communication professionals were meaningfully associated with perceptions about the need for robust engagement funding. The project was initially designed based on the Integrated Behavioral Model to assess how individual LTER scientists' engagement-related attitudes, normative beliefs, and efficacy beliefs affected their communication activities. However, the combined results highlight the potential value of additional research and theorization aimed at better understanding the factors that might lead to greater cooperation between scientists and organizational communicators.

Abstract Scientists are increasingly engaging with stakeholders to codesign scenarios of land use change necessitating methods to translate the resulting qualitative scenarios into quantitative simulations. We demonstrate a transparent method for translating participatory scenarios to simulations of land use and land cover (LULC) change using the New England Landscape Futures (NELF) project as a case study. The NELF project codesigned four divergent narrative scenarios that contrast with a Recent Trends scenario projecting a continuation of observed changes New England over the past 20 years. Here, we (1) describe the process and utility of translating qualitative scenarios into spatial simulations using a dynamic cellular land change model, (2) evaluate scenario LULC configuration relative to the Recent Trends scenario and to each other, (3) compare the fate of forests within stakeholder‐defined areas of concern, and (4) describe how a user‐inspired outreach tool was developed to make the simulations and analyses accessible to a diverse user group. The associated simulations are strongly divergent in terms of the amount of LULC change and the spatial pattern of change. Among the scenarios, there is a fivefold difference in the amount of high‐density development and a twofold difference in the amount of protected land. Features of the simulations can clearly be linked back to the original storylines. Overall, the rate of LULC change has a greater influence on stakeholder areas of concern than the spatial configuration. The simulated scenarios have been integrated into an online mapping tool via a user‐engagement process meeting the needs of a variety of stakeholders.

On June 19, 2019, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) repealed the 2015 Clean Power Plan (CPP) and released the final Affordable Clean Energy rule (ACE rule). As part of their final rule package, EPA also released the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), which estimates expected changes in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) between 2021 and 2050 for a reference case with no carbon standards, the CPP, and the ACE rule.

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has proposed to repeal the Clean Power Plan which was designed to curb carbon dioxide emissions from power plants but would also reduce emissions of other pollutants that can adversely affect public health (EPA 2017). It is expected that the EPA will replace the Clean Power Plan with a narrower “inside the fence line” approach focused on improving the thermal efficiency of coal-fired power plants (S&P Global 2017). Under this approach, the option to replace high-polluting power plants with wind and solar, switch them to natural gas, or moderate their impact with energy demand reduction strategies will effectively be off the table.The “inside the fence line” approach to regulating carbon dioxide emissions favored by the current EPA represents a serious weakening of the Clean Air Act standard that calls for implementing the “Best System of Emission Reduction”. The 2015 EPA Clean Power Plan took a flexible approach to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and would have generated air quality and health benefits that far outweigh the cost of the standards. An “inside the fence line” alternative would produce little to no climate and clean air benefits, and would harm human health.

The weak link between science and policy jeopardizes the wellbeing of people and the planet. Climate change is a pressing example of this disconnect. Policies are not keeping pace with the best of our knowledge from climate change research. We are working to bridge the science-policy divide and advance climate solutions by focusing on the positive health, ecosystem, and economic benefits of policy action. In 2013, we brought together an interdisciplinary team to estimate the co-benefits of US power plant carbon standards for air quality and health, plus the economic value of the benefits. The results demonstrate that strong carbon standards with flexible compliance options can change the power sector, yielding substantial air quality and health benefits nationwide. The results also show that the economic value of these benefits outweighs the costs nationally and regionally. We advanced the policy applications …

We review and synthesize information on invasions of nonnative forest insects and diseases in the United States, including their ecological and economic impacts, pathways of arrival, distribution within the United States, and policy options for reducing future invasions. Nonnative insects have accumulated in United States forests at a rate of ~2.5 per yr over the last 150 yr. Currently the two major pathways of introduction are importation of live plants and wood packing material such as pallets and crates. Introduced insects and diseases occur in forests and cities throughout the United States, and the problem is particularly severe in the Northeast and Upper Midwest. Nonnative forest pests are the only disturbance agent that has effectively eliminated entire tree species or genera from United States forests within decades. The resulting shift in forest structure and species composition alters ecosystem functions such as productivity, nutrient cycling, and wildlife habitat. In urban and suburban areas, loss of trees from streets, yards, and parks affects aesthetics, property values, shading, stormwater runoff, and human health. The economic damage from nonnative pests is not yet fully known, but is likely in the billions of dollars per year, with the majority of this economic burden borne by municipalities and residential property owners. Current policies for preventing introductions are having positive effects but are insufficient to reduce the influx of pests in the face of burgeoning global trade. Options are available to strengthen the defenses against pest arrival and establishment, including measures taken in the exporting country prior to shipment, measures to ensure clean shipments of plants and wood products, inspections at ports of entry, and post-entry measures such as quarantines, surveillance, and eradication programs. Improved data collection procedures for inspections, greater data accessibility, and better reporting would support better evaluation of policy effectiveness. Lack of additional action places the nation, local municipalities, and property owners at high risk of further damaging and costly invasions. Adopting stronger policies to reduce establishments of new forest insects and diseases would shift the major costs of control to the source and alleviate the economic burden now borne by homeowners and municipalities.

Fossil fuel-fired power plants are the single largest source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States, accounting for about 40% of total CO2 emissions nationwide (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2014a). On June 2, 2014, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released the Clean Power Plan, a proposed rule for reducing carbon emissions from existing power plants. The intent of this plan is for EPA to establish federal carbon standards and for individual states to design programs to achieve the necessary carbon emission reductions. Because these power plants are also significant sources of additional pollutants, including sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and mercury (Hg), policies intended to address climate change by reducing CO2 emissions can also reduce emissions of these co-pollutants, thereby providing important cobenefits to human and environmental health. For example, SO2 and NOx contribute to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), and NOx is a precursor to ground-level ozone. These pollutants contribute to increased risk of premature death, heart attacks, and other human health effects (Pope et al., 2002). For ecosystems, these pollutants contribute to the formation of acid rain and to ozone damage to trees and crops (Driscoll et al., 2001; Karlsson et al., 2004). To evaluate the co-benefits associated with various approaches to carbon pollution standards,

Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy.A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events.Greater change is projected in the future.The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used.Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years.However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat.Projections indicate signifi cant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fi r forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests.Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species.Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in signifi cant alterations of key ecosystem processes.Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease.Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa.Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction.There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and pathogens, may be more adept at adjusting to changing climatic conditions, enhancing their competitive ability relative to native species.With the accumulating evidence of climate change and its potential effects, forest stewardship efforts would benefi t from integrating climate mitigation and adaptation options in conservation and management plans.

Scientists, related professionals, and the public have for decades called for greater interaction among scientists, policymakers, and the media to address contemporary environmental challenges. Practical examples of effective “real-world” programs designed to catalyze interactions and provide relevant science are few. Existing successful models can be used, however, to develop and expand the work of integrating, synthesizing, and communicating ecosystem science for environmental policy and natural-resource management. We provide an overview of the structure and strategies used in the Hubbard Brook Research Foundation Science Links program, now in its thirteenth year as a successful boundary-spanning organization. We detail project activities and results and share lessons and challenges for the further advancement of Science Links and other efforts to bridge the science—policy divide. Furthermore, we suggest greater emphasis in boundary-spanning programs as a part of publicly funded research initiatives and as legitimate scholarly endeavors that support the scaled coproduction of knowledge and that harness scientific research to support informed policy and environmental management.

Abstract Acidic deposition delivers acids and acidifying compounds to the Earth's surface, which are then transported through soil, vegetation, and surface waters and, in turn, set off a cascade of adverse ecological effects. Acidic deposition has altered forest soil by accelerating the leaching of available base cations, enhancing the accumulation of sulfur and nitrogen, and increasing the concentration of dissolved inorganic aluminum in soil waters. Soils that are compromised by acidic deposition are less able to neutralize additional amounts of acidic deposition, and provide poorer growing conditions for plants. Acidic deposition has impaired the surface water quality by lowering pH, decreasing acid‐neutralizing capacity ( ANC ), and increasing concentrations of dissolved inorganic aluminum. These changes have reduced the species diversity and abundance of aquatic life. Regulatory controls initiated in Europe and North America over the last three decades have decreased emissions of sulfur dioxide and to a lesser extent nitrogen oxides. Emission reductions have resulted in widespread decreases in concentrations of sulfate in surface waters, with some waters showing an increase in ANC. Given the loss of acid‐neutralizing base cations and the accumulation of sulfur and nitrogen in soil, many ecosystems have become more sensitive to additional acidic deposition and recovery will likely be delayed. Long‐term research shows that deeper emissions cuts will lead to greater and faster recovery from acidic deposition in impacted regions.