SUMMARY Observational and modelling studies indicate that earthquake ruptures can jump between fault sections as large as ∼3 and ∼5 km for compressional and extensional offsets, respectively. Here, we compare characteristics of the rupture jump process on parallel but offset fault sections from traditional 3-D dynamic rupture simulations governed by slip weakening friction using the finite element code, FaultMod, to those from quasi-dynamic simulations governed by rate- and state-dependent friction (rate-state friction) using the code RSQSim. These simulations use spatially uniform initial stresses. For a variety of measures the rupture renucleation position on the offset fault, the rate-state friction and slip weakening friction models produce very similar results. The principal difference is the additional occurrence of delayed rupture jumps that arise from the time- and stress-dependent nucleation that is characteristic of rate-state friction. For immediate rupture jumps, models with slip weakening friction span greater offsets than those with rate-state friction. However the jump distances are nearly identical when delayed rupture jumps are included in the comparisons. We propose that delayed rupture jumps are the likely mechanism for adjacent large-earthquake pairs and clusters. Based on the similarity of renucleation positions with both dynamic and quasi-dynamic models, we conclude that the renucleation positions for rupture initiation on the receiver fault (separated by less than ∼3 km from the source fault) are primarily controlled by static stress changes induced by slip on the initiating fault. However, in light of the slightly greater maximum jump distances (>3 km) seen with the dynamic slip weakening friction model, dynamic stress changes from seismic waves play an increasingly important role as offset distances increase.

Minor changes in geometry along the length of mature strike-slip faults may act as conditional barriers to earthquake rupture, terminating some and allowing others to pass. This hypothesis remains largely untested because palaeoearthquake data that constrain spatial and temporal patterns of fault rupture are generally imprecise. Here we develop palaeoearthquake event data that encompass the last 20 major-to-great earthquakes along approximately 320 km of the Alpine Fault in New Zealand with sufficient temporal resolution and spatial coverage to reveal along-strike patterns of rupture extent. The palaeoearthquake record shows that earthquake terminations tend to cluster in time near minor along-strike changes in geometry. These terminations limit the length to which rupture can grow and produce two modes of earthquake behaviour characterized by phases of major ( M w 7–8) and great ( M w > 8) earthquakes. Physics-based simulations of seismic cycles closely resemble our observations when parameterized with realistic fault geometry. Switching between the rupture modes emerges due to heterogeneous stress states that evolve over multiple seismic cycles in response to along-strike differences in geometry. These geometric complexities exert a first-order control on rupture behaviour that is not currently accounted for in fault-source models for seismic hazard.

ABSTRACT We present a nonergodic framework for probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) that is constructed entirely of deterministic, physical models. The use of deterministic ground-motion simulations in PSHA calculations is not new (e.g., CyberShake), but prior studies relied on kinematic rupture generators to extend empirical earthquake rupture forecasts. Fully dynamic models, which simulate rupture nucleation and propagation of static and dynamic stresses, are still computationally intractable for the large simulation domains and many seismic cycles required to perform PSHA. Instead, we employ the Rate-State earthquake simulator (RSQSim) to efficiently simulate hundreds of thousands of years of M≥6.5 earthquake sequences on the California fault system. RSQSim produces full slip-time histories for each rupture, which, unlike kinematic models, emerge from frictional properties, fault geometry, and stress transfer; all intrinsic variability is deterministic. We use these slip-time histories directly as input to a 3D wave-propagation code within the CyberShake platform to obtain simulated Fmax=0.5 Hz ground motions. The resulting 3 s spectral acceleration ground motions closely match empirical ground-motion model (GMM) estimates of median and variability of shaking. When computed over a range of sources and sites, the variability is similar to that of ergodic GMMs. Variability is reduced for individual pairs of sources and sites that repeatedly sample a single path, which is expected for a nonergodic model. This results in increased exceedance probabilities for certain characteristic ground motions for a source–site pair, while decreasing probabilities at the extreme tails of the ergodic GMM predictions. We present these comparisons and preliminary fully deterministic physics-based RSQSim–CyberShake hazard curves, as well as a new technique for estimating within- and between-event variability through simulation.

Manipulation of subsurface stresses through fluid injection/extraction may induce seismicity through modulation of overpressure along faults. Globally, most industrial operations do not induce significant earthquakes. However, the possibility of inducing moderate to large earthquakes is recognized as a significant risk for basin-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) storage operations (Niass et al., 2017). One possible method to reduce the occurrence of induced seismicity is to maintain only small (or zero) fluid overpressure changes in the subsurface through extraction of formation brine. For active pressure management (APM), operators may employ different procedures including extraction of various brine volumes and different configurations of injection/extraction well locations. However, the impact each these operational procedures on induced seismicity must be understood in order to develop management strategies. Here, we describe a numerical modeling workflow to evaluate the efficacy of APM techniques, that when applied to a specific site may be used to inform operational management strategies. We couple the multiphase reservoir model, NUFT, with the earthquake simulator, RSQSim and simulate seismicity induced by CO2 injection into a hypothetical brine saturated reservoir. Reservoir overpressure is modified by co-extraction of brine at various fractions of the injected CO2 volume from five potential wells. Our goal is to understand how the well-pair configuration and the extracted brine volume impact the total number and the maximum event magnitude. Additionally, the performance of each scenario is also evaluated in terms of the volume of CO2 that can be stored before an earthquake above a tolerance threshold is induced.

Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific uncertainties. We compare a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for California. Using only uniform parameters in the simulator, we find strikingly good agreement of the long-term shaking hazard compared with the California model. This ability to replicate statistically based seismic hazard estimates by a physics-based model cross-validates standard methods and provides a new alternative approach needing fewer inputs and assumptions for estimating hazard.

It is well established that subsurface injection of fluids increases pore fluid pressures that may lead to shear failure along a preexisting fault surface. Concern among oil and gas, geothermal, and carbon storage operators has risen dramatically over the past decade due to the increase in the number and magnitude of induced earthquakes. Efforts to mitigate the risk associated with injection-induced earthquakes include modeling of the interaction between fluids and earthquake faults. Here we investigate this relationship with simulations that couple a geomechanical reservoir model and RSQSim, a physics-based earthquake simulator. RSQSim employs rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) that enables the investigation of the time-dependent nature of earthquake sequences. We explore the effect of two RSF parameters and normal stress on the spatiotemporal characteristics of injection-induced seismicity. We perform >200 simulations to systematically investigate the effect of these model components on the evolution of induced seismicity sequences and compare the spatiotemporal characteristics of our synthetic catalogs to observations of induced earthquakes. We find that the RSF parameters control the ability of seismicity to migrate away from the injection well, the total number and maximum magnitude of induced events. Additionally, the RSF parameters control the occurrence/absence of premonitory events. Lastly, we find that earthquake stress drops can be modulated by the normal stress and/or the RSF parameters. Insight gained from this study can aid in further development of models that address best practice protocols for injection operations, site-specific models of injection-induced earthquakes, and probabilistic hazard and risk assessments.

On 15 June 2010, a M w 5.7 earthquake occurred near Ocotillo, California, in the Yuha Desert. This event was the largest aftershock of the 4 April 2010 M w 7.2 El Mayor‐Cucapah (EMC) earthquake in this region. The EMC mainshock and subsequent Ocotillo aftershock provide an opportunity to test the Coulomb failure hypothesis (CFS). We explore the spatiotemporal correlation between seismicity rate changes and regions of positive and negative CFS change imparted by the Ocotillo event. Based on simple CFS calculations we divide the Yuha Desert into three subregions, one triggering zone and two stress shadow zones. We find the nominal triggering zone displays immediate triggering, one stress shadowed region experiences immediate quiescence, and the other nominal stress shadow undergoes an immediate rate increase followed by a delayed shutdown. We quantitatively model the spatiotemporal variation of earthquake rates by combining calculations of CFS change with the rate‐state earthquake rate formulation of Dieterich (1994), assuming that each subregion contains a mixture of nucleation sources that experienced a CFS change of differing signs. Our modeling reproduces the observations, including the observed delay in the stress shadow effect in the third region following the Ocotillo aftershock. The delayed shadow effect occurs because of intrinsic differences in the amplitude of the rate response to positive and negative stress changes and the time constants for return to background rates for the two populations. We find that rate‐state models of time‐dependent earthquake rates are in good agreement with the observed rates and thus explain the complex spatiotemporal patterns of seismicity.

Slow slip events (SSEs) observed in subduction zones around the world exhibit a wide range of recurrence intervals, durations, and propagation speeds. To illuminate possible mechanisms responsible for the observed variability and guide future modeling efforts, we employ the earthquake simulator RSQSim to explore the effects of variations in the convergence rates, frictional parameters, and effective normal stress on SSE characteristics. Both recurrence intervals and durations of SSEs are essentially directly proportional to the effective normal stress, while along-strike propagation speeds are inversely proportional. Effective normal stresses in the range of 3-9 MPa produce fault slip consistent with observed SSEs. Changes in rate-state frictional instability (b - a) have a moderate inverse effect on propagation speeds but much weaker effects on recurrence intervals and durations. Convergence rates are inversely proportional to recurrence intervals, propagation speeds show a weak positive relationship, and event durations appear insensitive.

While a number of viable physical mechanisms have been offered to explain the temporal clustering of aftershocks, the spatial clustering of aftershocks, in particular the concentrated productivity of aftershocks very near the mainshock rupture area, has been difficult to reproduce with physical models. Here we present a new deterministic physical model capable of reproducing both the spatial and temporal clustering. We apply this new model to a longstanding puzzling question raised by ground motion observations, which suggest that nearby aftershocks show reduced ground motions relative to similar magnitude mainshocks. In the model, the physical basis for these observations is reduced stress drops for nearby aftershocks compared to similar magnitude mainshocks. These reduced stress drops are due to nearby aftershocks rerupturing incompletely healed parts of the fault which ruptured in the mainshock.

Research Article| June 10, 2015 Modeling Injection‐Induced Seismicity with the Physics‐Based Earthquake Simulator RSQSim James H. Dieterich; James H. Dieterich Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, 900 University Avenue, Riverside, California 92521 U.S.A.keithrd@ucr.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Keith B. Richards‐Dinger; Keith B. Richards‐Dinger Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, 900 University Avenue, Riverside, California 92521 U.S.A.keithrd@ucr.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kayla A. Kroll Kayla A. Kroll Department of Earth Sciences, University of California, 900 University Avenue, Riverside, California 92521 U.S.A.keithrd@ucr.edu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Seismological Research Letters (2015) 86 (4): 1102–1109. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150057 Article history first online: 14 Jul 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation James H. Dieterich, Keith B. Richards‐Dinger, Kayla A. Kroll; Modeling Injection‐Induced Seismicity with the Physics‐Based Earthquake Simulator RSQSim. Seismological Research Letters 2015;; 86 (4): 1102–1109. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220150057 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search Although the phenomenon of earthquakes induced by the subsurface injection of fluids has been recognized, and the basic mechanisms understood, for many decades (e.g., Healy et al., 1968), the recent increase in seismicity associated with oil and gas development, including large damaging events (e.g., Ellsworth, 2013; Keranen et al., 2013; Hough, 2014; Rubinstein et al., 2014) makes clear the need to better understand the processes controlling such seismicity and to develop techniques to mitigate the associated seismic hazard. The relationship of fault stress, fault strength, and fluid pressure at the onset of... You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.

We use an efficient earthquake simulator that incorporates rate-state constitutive properties and uses boundary element method to discretize the fault surfaces, to generate the synthetic earthquakes in the fault system. Rate-and-state seismicity equation is subsequently employed to calculate the seismicity rate in a region of interest using the Coulomb stress transfer from the main shocks in the fault system. The Coulomb stress transfer is obtained by resolving the induced stresses due to the fault patch slips onto the optimal-oriented fault planes. The example results show that immediately after a main shock the aftershocks are concentrated in the vicinity of the rupture area due to positive stress transfers and then disperse away into the surrounding region toward the background rate distribution. The number of aftershocks near the rupture region is found to decay with time as Omori aftershock decay law predicts. The example results demonstrate that the rate-and-state fault system earthquake simulator and the seismicity equations based on the rate-state friction nucleation of earthquake are well posited to characterize the aftershock distribution in regional assessments of earthquake probabilities.

This report describes a 10-year DOE-funded project to design, characterize and create an Engineered Geothermal System (EGS) through a combination of hydraulic, thermal and chemical stimulation techniques. Volume 1 describes a four-year Phase 1 campaign, which focused on the east compartment of the Coso geothermal field. It includes a description of the geomechanical, geophysical, hydraulic, and geochemical studies that were conducted to characterize the reservoir in anticipation of the hydraulic stimulation experiment. Phase 1 ended prematurely when the drill bit intersected a very permeable fault zone during the redrilling of target stimulation well 34-9RD2. A hydraulic stimulation was inadvertently achieved, however, since the flow of drill mud from the well into the formation created an earthquake swarm near the wellbore that was recorded, located, analyzed and interpreted by project seismologists. Upon completion of Phase 1, the project shifted focus to a new target well, which was located within the southwest compartment of the Coso geothermal field. Volume 2 describes the Phase 2 studies on the geomechanical, geophysical, hydraulic, and geochemical aspects of the reservoir in and around target-stimulation well 46A-19RD, which is the deepest and hottest well ever drilled at Coso. Its total measured depth exceeding 12,000 ft. It spite of its great depth, this well is largely impermeable below a depth of about 9,000 ft, thus providing an excellent target for stimulation. In order to prepare 46A-19RD for stimulation, however, it was necessary to pull the slotted liner. This proved to be unachievable under the budget allocated by the Coso Operating Company partners, and this aspect of the project was abandoned, ending the program at Coso. The program then shifted to the EGS project at Desert Peak, which had a goal similar to the one at Coso of creating an EGS on the periphery of an existing geothermal reservoir. Volume 3 describes the activities that the Coso team contributed to the Desert Peak project, focusing largely on a geomechanical investigation of the Desert Peak reservoir, tracer testing between injectors 21-2 and 22-22 and the field's main producers, and the chemical stimulation of target well 27-15.