Electricity and oil are both scarce energy resources. A review of the previous literature shows tests of the impact of crude oil prices on electricity prices, given that crude oil is one of the primary raw materials in electricity generation. Nevertheless, none of these tests can clearly demonstrate the dynamic asymmetric interaction in their relations. Heading in this direction, we apply the asymmetric Granger causality test to capture the time-varying features and structural breakpoints of the causality from crude oil shocks to retail electricity shocks. Our analysis answers the question of whether, how, and why crude oil price fluctuations can be a significant factor in electricity price fluctuations of all users (residential, commercial and industrial) in the United States. The results suggest that some structural breakpoints of their relations may be triggered by extreme events. In particular, the impact of crude oil price shocks on commercial and industrial electricity prices seems more pronounced. This study provides a special perspective on the effects of oil price volatility on retail electricity prices, which is a crucial guide to addressing climate risk and limited fossil fuel stocks.
Exchange rate changes affect economic activities and reflect the country's financial strength. In the current critical energy transition period, are exchange rate changes affected by the global energy transition? This paper focuses on three major exchange rates: USD/EUR, USD/CNY, and USD/JPY. Besides, we use total energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors to capture the energy transition progress. We have the following findings. On average, total energy consumption, renewable energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in different sectors will not affect USD/EUR and USD/JYP but USD/CNY. However, further research shows that industrial total energy consumption will have a long-term impact on USD/JYP. USD/JYP will react to residential renewable energy consumption in the short term while the industrial sector in the middle-long term. Residential and commercial total energy consumption have a short-lived impact on USD/CNY. Residential and commercial renewable energy consumption can affect USD/CNY in the long term while the impact of the industrial sector on USD/CNY is transient. In addition, all sectors' CO2 emissions have a significant short-term impact on USD/CNY. Therefore, countries should formulate more flexible exchange rate policies based on energy transition needs in different end-use sectors.
The VAR-LASSO connectedness method and VAR-X-LASSO connectedness method are employed in this study to explore the intricate spillover relationships between international crude oil markets and global energy stock markets while also examining the impact of geopolitical risks on these spillover relationships. By comparing the connectedness indices derived from the VAR-X-LASSO connectedness method and the VAR-LASSO connectedness method, this paper yields some intriguing empirical findings. First, the net transmitter of systemic shocks mainly appears in energy stock markets within developed countries. Second, we observed the net spillover direction from energy stock markets in most developed countries, especially those in the United States, Canada, France, Italy, Norway and Spain, to international crude oil markets, and the net spillover direction from international crude oil markets to energy stock markets in most developing countries. Third, geopolitical risks have been observed to strengthen the unidirectional spillover intensity from international crude oil markets to energy stock markets, and their influence intensified after 2015. However, there is minimal influence of geopolitical risks on the unidirectional spillover effects from energy stock markets to international crude oil markets.
It is well known that grain futures markets can be affected by climate change, but there is little literature to explore whether this impact owns asymmetry. Therefore, we study this asymmetry on the basis of climate policy uncertainty. We first find that climate may help to understand the changes in grain commodity prices, especially wheat futures. More importantly, climate shows an asymmetric ability to affecting wheat and corn futures. Besides, the effects of climate on different grain futures vary in the long and short runs, but all unidirectional asymmetric relations seem to be significantly lasting.
The relevant disclosure policies in China are late and weakly binding in comparison to developed capital markets like the US, which have systematic and mandatory patent disclosure requirements. As a result, Chinese companies are more selective in their patent disclosure actions, which causes knowledge spillover differences. With reference to the Chinese market, this study uses empirical data from listed A-share businesses in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2012 to 2020 to analyze the relationship between the degree of patent information disclosure and corporate knowledge spillover. We discovered a significant positive relationship between the extent of patent information disclosure and corporate knowledge spillover ability. The findings of this paper assist market participants in comprehending the impact of patent information disclosure on business knowledge spillover and societal technological advancement, as well as informing the decisions of policymakers.
By documenting information flows from analysts to covered firms, this paper provides robust evidence that firms connected by informal networks of shared analysts exhibit greater knowledge spillovers, and are largely influenced by firms' absorptive capacity. In cross-sectional tests, we demonstrate that the spillover is greater for analysts with higher industry specialization and forecast activity intensity. In addition, the effect varies with firm pairs' industry homogeneity and geographic proximity. Finally, by focusing on the real effect of shared analysts on corporate innovation, we find that shared analysts can facilitate the covered firms' upward convergence in R&D expenditure. Collectively, this paper provides emerging capital market evidence for the function of informal networks based on shared analysts regarding firms' innovation decisions through knowledge spillovers.
The development of clean energy has made the green finance market attractive to investors, but existing studies lack an analysis of the impact of uncertain environmental shocks on the volatility of green finance stocks. This paper focuses on the impact of major events on clean energy stock returns by using a mixed-frequency model. Specifically, to identify asymmetric effects and extreme information spillovers, we construct extreme positive returns/positive returns and extreme negative returns/negative returns, respectively. The in-sample findings suggest that asymmetric effects and extreme shocks contain valid information about future clean energy stock price volatility. The out-of-sample analysis shows that the extended model can successfully predict the volatility of clean energy stock markets. More importantly, the extended model can generate predictive gains from both statistical and economic aspects. This study can provide a reference for implementing and adjusting energy policies, which is important for optimizing the energy structure and developing the green energy industry.
The relationship between financial series is not always easy to detect due to their underlying asymmetry and nonlinearity. Both characteristics are not usually considered simultaneously, which may lead to many drawbacks in financial analysis. Hence, we develop a novel neural Granger causality method from both asymmetric and nonlinear perspectives and further revisit the response and impact of crude oil on the exchange rate. Our findings reveal the unidirectional nonlinear and asymmetric effect of crude oil on the exchange rate; that is, positive and negative oil prices can have a substantial impact on exchange rate shocks. Interestingly, this influence seems to strengthen after the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Besides, we also use simulation technology to evaluate the rationality and effectiveness of our proposed methods. Investors, policymakers, and scholars may be interested in our findings regarding the oil-dollar relationships; as well as interested in applying our methodology to other contexts.
In recent years, there has been considerable interest in both academic and practical circles in relation to patent disclosure and enterprise innovation quality. In a strategic context of "innovation-driven development", the availability of intellectual property information and enterprise innovation capabilities play an increasingly essential role in the long-term development of mainland Chinese firms. The study of related issues can help improve the patent disclosure environment in Chinese mainland market and have a positive effect on the quality of enterprise innovation. As viewed from the perspective of the mainland Chinese market, this paper examines the relationship between patent disclosure and enterprise innovation quality. Data from Chinese enterprises listed on the A-share main boards shows patent disclosure by competitors lowers innovation quality. In contrast, the patent information spillover generated by firms has a positive effect on the quality of self-innovation. Additionally, we investigate the impact of patent spill-out (spill-in) on enterprise innovation quality from the perspective of industry technology investment and industry concentration. According to the empirical data, the effects of enterprise patent disclosure spillover on innovation quality are stronger in industries with high technology investment and manufacturing, while the effects are less pronounced in industries with high industry concentration.
We inspect the impact of conference call organizers on the quality of analysts' forecasts. Organizers affect the information delivery through conference calls with the composition of audiences, the preparation of managers, and the frame of questions. Using manually collected information of conference calls in China, we discover that conference calls refine analysts' forecast quality. Further evidence indicates that brokerage firms, as the organizer of the call, significantly improve analysts' forecast quality. Specifically, brokerage firms show a positive relationship with forecast accuracy and a negative relationship with forecast dispersion. However, neither top brokerages nor star analysts show a distinct advantage in delivering information when they act as the organizer and the host.
In this paper, we construct one-way return connectedness indices and net pairwise directional connectedness (NPDC) indices from the grey energy market to the natural gas market using the dynamic connectedness framework of Antonakakis et al. (2020) and attempt to investigate their ability to forecast natural gas returns. Both the in-sample estimation results and the out-of-sample evaluation results show that most of the return connectedness indices considered in this paper have significant predictive power for natural gas returns, and at most forecasting horizons, the predictive power of the return connectedness indices from grey energy to natural gas exceeds that of the grey energy returns themselves. The out-of-sample evaluation results further show that among all the return connectedness indices considered here, the return connectedness indices from the WTI crude oil market perform better in out-of-sample forecasting. Specifically, the one-way return connectedness index from WTI crude oil to natural gas performs better in short-term return forecasting, while the NPDC indices from WTI crude oil to natural gas perform better in long-term return forecasting.
Although the resource curse has achieved much attention in the past few years, very little research has fully demonstrated the influence of resource dependence on environmental sustainability concerning the way to break the resource curse. Meanwhile, policymakers spare no efforts to formulate corresponding policies toward the goals of environmental sustainability. Considering the differences in the level of economic development and resource endowments of different countries, it is necessary to explain the cause of the resource curse in developing countries through resource-oriented development. In this regard, this study estimated the role of resource dependence on carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 emissions) in the background of 250 Chinese peripheral cities from 2000 to 2018. The results confirm that resource dependence has significantly accelerated CO2 emissions and the condition of the resource curse may still exist in the view of CO2 emissions at the prefecture level. We further find the technological innovation factors, including the introduction of high-speed rail (HSR) and science and technology investment all exist negative moderating effects of resource dependence on CO2 emissions. Such findings imply that the resource curse measured by CO2 emissions is not inevitable when effective policy suggestions are proposed.