This paper aims to find socially acceptable solutions of circularity as measure to reduce nitrogen (N) losses and prevent environmental damage by combining participatory modelling and scenario Substance Flow Analyses (SFA). A local perspective was taken on the agro-food-waste system in the animal production-dominated German district Cleves. Three scenarios were programmed as Monte Carlo simulation of SFA with stakeholder input regarding crop allocation, livestock composition, livestock reduction, and manure allocation following the elimination of feed imports. The three scenarios either utilized the unaltered stakeholder input (PS), altered crop allocation to satisfy the demand for feed (CBS), or adjusted the livestock numbers to match the locally available feed (LBS). In the reference year (2020) agricultural losses amounted to 68 kg N year-1 ha-1 agricultural land and 116 kg N in feed was imported year-1 ha-1 agricultural land. In the PS feed import elimination led to deficits in feed availability. The LBS showed the biggest reduction of agricultural N losses and improved N use efficiency (+6 %), however agricultural losses were still high (50 kg N year-1 ha-1 agricultural land). The results show a limited effect of feed import elimination on N losses if no further measures are taken, such as reduced consumption of animal-based products. Further, the study shows that it is important to improve stakeholders' knowledge about approaches to circular agro-food-waste systems. The discrepancy between stakeholder visions and N circularity provide policy makers with the recommendation to improve stakeholders' visions of a circular agro-food-waste system.

Temperate fruit trees require exposure to chill and heat conditions to overcome the dormant period in winter and resume growth in spring. Rising temperatures due to climate change have already impacted winter chill accumulation in horticulturally vital growing regions worldwide. Afghanistan’s intra-regional differences make the country favorable for producing a wide range of fruits and nuts, which constitute approximately 30

Winter chill accumulation plays a crucial role in determining the moment of bud burst in temperate fruit and nut trees, and insufficient chill can greatly limit yield potentials. To assess future cultivation options for such species in South America, we estimated winter chill through a spatial analysis. We used historical data (1980–2017) from 158 weather stations to calibrate a weather generator and produce temperature data for 10 historical and 60 future scenarios. We computed Safe Winter Chill (SWC, corresponding to the 10th quantile of a chill distribution) for the period 1980–2017 and for all historical and future weather scenarios and developed a framework to interpolate SWC for the continent using the Kriging method. To improve the interpolation, we applied a 3D correction model based on two co-variables (means of daily temperature extremes in July). Our results suggest important chill declines in southern Brazil and central Chile. By 2050 under the global warming scenario RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), absolute SWC in these regions may reach a median of 18.7 and 39.6 Chill Portions (CP), respectively. Projections are most alarming for a strong global warming scenario (RCP8.5). In southern South America, adequate SWC levels of about 60 CP may be expected even under the RCP8.5 scenario. Our results highlight the need for climate change adaptation measures to secure temperate fruit production in important growing regions of South America. The procedure we developed may help farmers and practitioners across South America estimate future SWC to adapt their orchards to future challenges.

Forests make important contributions to safeguarding agricultural production, food security and nutrition of rural and urban populations. The walnut-fruit forests in Kyrgyzstan constitute a unique resource in this regard. Simultaneously, they are of global importance as a biodiversity hotspot. However, current patterns of forest management are unsustainable, large parts of the forest are overaged and benefits derived from these forests are unequally distributed among local populations. Walnut (Juglans regia L.) kernels have traditionally been used for human diets and constitute an economically important product of these forests. Although the walnut value chain in Kyrgyzstan is of significant economic importance, the level of domestic processing is low and locally manufactured walnut products are of low quality. The SUSWALFOOD project (funding code 01DK17016) aims at contributing to the development of nutritious food from neglected and underutilised plant species of the Kyrgyz Walnut forests, thereby improving local food security, promoting sustainable forest management, and increasing local incomes. Contact Address: Dietrich Darr, Rhine-Waal University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Life Sciences, Marie-CurieStr. 1, 47533 Kleve, Germany, e-mail: dietrich.darr@hochschule-rhein-waal.de Initial analyses have investigated timber growth of walnut trees and quality parameters of respective walnuts from various parts of the forest. Regarding quality parameters, nut dimensions, walnut weight, kernel weight, and rupture force were determined resulting in a classification of the investigated trees. Results show that most trees are old and may therefore be anticipated to display declining walnut yields, underlining the need for forest rejuvenation. Timber and walnut quality varied greatly across the study area. These results will facilitate the selection of superior trees for forest regeneration. Further work in this project aims to analyse the nutritional composition and secondary plant compounds of other selected plant species of the walnut forests and their potential use in new food products; further investigate the morphology, diversity, and plant-soil interaction of these species to determine their biological productivity and to support sustainable management and conservation efforts; and finally examine the socioeconomic and gender-specific impacts of traditional and contemporary utilisation including market chains and cost-benefit assessments at household level.