The deciduous tree‐herbivorous caterpillar‐insectivorous bird food chain is a well‐studied system for investigating the impacts of climate change across trophic levels. To date, across Europe, most attention has focused on the impacts of increasing spring temperature on changes to phenology in Oak‐dominated (Quercus spp.) woodlands. Paridae species and Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca are the most studied secondary consumers, all of which demonstrate an advancement in reproductive phenology with increases in spring temperature. Shifts in climate and phenology may also impact on reproductive investment in clutch size, and the effects of climate on phenology and clutch size may vary depending on woodland composition. To date, the effects of among‐habitat variation in phenology and reproductive investment have received little attention. Insectivorous birds inhabiting woodlands that differ in tree composition may differ in the timing of breeding, due to local tree leafing phenology acting as a cue for egg‐laying date and/or clutch size. Moreover, for most insectivorous birds, woodland composition within a territory is likely to be the main determinant of food availability for both adults and chicks. Consequently, if warming springs affect the temporal patterns of food availability differently across different woodland compositions, this may affect the optimal average local phenology for nesting birds. Here, using data from 34 long‐term (mean 15 years) nest monitoring sites across the UK, we investigate the effect of woodland tree composition and temperature on Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus first egg date (FED) and clutch size. We supplemented the nest monitoring data by quantifying woodland composition, at a site level, through modified point counts. We predict that birds breeding in woodlands with greater proportions of late‐leafing species, such as Oak and Ash Fraxinus excelsior, will breed later than those breeding in woodlands with greater proportions of early‐leafing species, such as Birch Betula spp. and Beech Fagus sylvatica. We found no evidence for differences in Blue Tit FED or clutch size in relation to the proportion of any of the tree species investigated, after controlling for temperature and latitude (FED: −3.4 and 2.2, clutch size: −0.4 and − 0.2 eggs for one‐unit increase in temperature and latitude, respectively). In recent decades and across all sites, clutch size has decreased as spring temperatures have increased, a strategy which could allow birds flexibly to adjust their breeding phenology such that nestling demand coincides with peak food availability. The lack of an effect of woodland composition on Blue Tit phenology suggests Blue Tits do not fine‐tune their reproductive phenology to the local tree composition. Whether this lack of evidence for phenological divergence is due to an absence of divergent selection on breeding phenology and clutch size or to gene flow is not clear.

This is the 85th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology’s Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2021. In 2021, 105 Constant Effort Sites submitted data for the year. Long-term (1984–2020) declines in abundance were observed for five migrant, one partial migrant and five resident species, while long-term increases in abundance were recorded for two short-distance migrants and seven resident species. Ten species are exhibiting significant long-term declines in productivity, while only Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs shows a significant long-term increase. Long-term trends in survival indicate increases for 12 species and declines for seven. Short-term trends, which compare the current year to the five-year mean for 2016–20, show that the abundance of seven species increased significantly in 2021, with one species, Treecreeper Certhia familiaris, being recorded in higher numbers than in any previous year of CES monitoring. Significant decreases in abundance were recorded for four species. Productivity decreased significantly for seven migrant and 11 resident species in 2021, with six species recording their lowest breeding success since CES monitoring began; no species recorded a significant short-term increase. Significant changes in survival rate were observed for two species in 2021 compared to the five-year mean, with Song Thrush Turdus philomelos increasing and Chaffinch both declining and recording its lowest survival rate ever. The Garden CES trial continued in 2021, with 60 sites submitting data. The new winter ringing project also continued in 2021, with submissions received from 126 sites. The number of Retrapping Adults for Survival projects that were able to run and submit data in 2021 was 192, with data from one more project submitted too late to be included in this report and another four active projects unable to operate. In total, 60 species were monitored, with Starling Sturnus vulgaris (21 projects), House Sparrow Passer domesticus (20 projects), Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca (19 projects), Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus (nine projects) and Sand Martin Riparia riparia (nine projects) the species most studied. A total of 900 131 birds were ringed during the year, comprising 146 458 nestlings, 438 342 first-year birds, 291 127 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older) and 24 204 birds whose age could not be determined. In addition, there were 210 147 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. In total, 42 328 recoveries (birds found dead, recaptured or resighted at least 5 km from the place of ringing) of BTO-ringed birds were reported in 2021. The Appendix highlights a selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements, as well as longevity records established during the year. A total of 41 096 NRS submissions were received in 2021. Mean laying dates for 2021 were significantly later than the average for 13 species and only one species significantly advanced its laying date. Five species displayed a significant change in fledglings per breeding attempt, with two recording increased productivity and three reduced productivity. Permits or licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (as amended) were prepared and issued to 602 ringers and nest recorders in 2021. During 2021, 2588 marking endorsements, 868 sampling endorsements and 214 trapping endorsements were issued in the UK and overseas.

Many species have advanced the timing of annual reproductive cycles in response to climatic warming, sometimes leading to asynchrony between trophic levels, with negative population consequences. Long‐distance migratory birds, reliant on short seasonal food pulses for breeding, are considered particularly susceptible to such disjunction because late arrival may preclude optimal timing of egg‐laying. It is unknown whether the relative timing of arrival and egg‐laying is sufficiently plastic, in time and space, to enable an adaptive response when arrival times change relative to local food resources. We used citizen science data, describing pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca arrival and egg‐laying dates, to explore temporal (2013–2016) and spatial (across Great Britain) variation in the phenology of arrival, laying and their difference. To assess the long‐term trend in arrival and laying at a single location, we used data from a long‐term field study. The arrival‐laying interval was consistently shorter in the north, driven by the contrast between spatial variation in arrival date and spatial invariance in laying date. To understand whether a short arrival‐laying interval may have consequences for productivity, we assessed the association between this interval and clutch size. We found no statistically significant correlation between these two variables. To examine long‐term changes in arrival and laying dates, we focussed on a single location in southwestern England. Both dates of first male arrival and first egg laid in a season advanced since 1986, with no evidence of interval shortening. Together, our results demonstrate spatial and annual variation in the arrival‐laying interval, with no detected effect on fecundity. Thus, the interval from arrival to laying is likely dictated by spatially and temporally varying local conditions, suggesting these migrant birds may have the ability to adapt this interval to align with local conditions and mitigate potential mismatch impacts.

This is the 84th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology’s Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2020. An analysis of Curlew Numenius arquata ringing records was carried out to investigate recent declines. Results showed that survival rates are high, so current population declines are more likely to have been driven by low productivity. To reverse the recent population declines, breeding success would need to increase and effective conservation strategies will be needed to maintain the high levels of survival. We examined the potential opportunities and challenges of using winter ringing records to produce survival estimates, as well as other outputs such as age ratios and recruitment, by analysing 2 641 352 encounter records from the winters of 2007/08 to 2017/18: winter-to-winter survival analyses on adult birds were undertaken, initially on 44 species. Results indicated that fortnightly ringing sessions should yield sufficient data to produce useful survival estimates. This research identified a number of potential analytical and methodological options for future development. Covid-19 restrictions limited the amount of fieldwork carried out in 2020; consequently, only 72 CE sites submitted data for the year. Long-term (1984–2019) declines in abundance were observed for five migrant, one partial migrant and four resident species while long-term increases in abundance were recorded for two short-distance migrants and six resident species. Six species are exhibiting significant long-term declines in productivity while only Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs shows a significant long-term increase. Long-term trends in survival indicate increases for 10 species and declines for nine. Short-term trends, which compare the current year to the five-year mean (2015–19), show that the abundance of 10 species increased significantly in 2020, with three species being recorded in higher numbers than in any previous year since CES monitoring began. Significant decreases in abundance were recorded for only two species. Productivity decreased significantly for one migrant and five resident species in 2020; no species recorded a significant increase. Productivity was lower in 2020 than in any previous CES year for Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus and Great Tit Parus major. Significant changes in survival rate were observed in two species in 2020 compared to the five-year mean, with Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula increasing and Blackbird Turdus merula decreasing. A new habitat was added to the suite of standard CES habitats in 2020 in the first year of a Garden CES trial. Submissions were received from 92 sites. A new winter ringing project was also launched in 2020, following a similar methodology to CES. Submissions were received from 111 sites. The number of Retrapping Adults for Survival projects that were able to run and submit data in 2020 was 146, from 200 that were registered. In total, 60 species were monitored, with Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca (20 projects), Starling Sturnus vulgaris (19), House Sparrow Passer domesticus (18), Sand Martin Riparia riparia (10) and Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus (eight) the species most studied. A total of 930 091 birds were ringed during the year, comprising 98 500 nestlings, 523 777 first-year birds, 278 157 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older) and 29 657 birds whose age could not be determined. In addition, there were 212 414 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. In total, 42 987 recoveries (birds found dead, recaptured or resighted at least 5 km from the place of ringing) of BTO-ringed birds were reported in 2020. The Appendix highlights a selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements, as well as longevity records established during the year. A total of 23 928 NRS submissions were received in 2020, far fewer than usual due to Covid-19 restrictions being in place during the height of the nesting season. As the seasonality of nest records was biased towards the end of the breeding season, after Covid-19 restrictions had lifted, it was not possible to generate meaningful NRS trends for 2020. Permits or licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (as amended) were prepared and issued to 611 ringers and nest recorders in 2020. During 2020, the use of special methods was authorised for 1182 marking projects and 146 trapping projects.

ABSTRACT This is the 83rd annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology’s Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2019. In 2019, 130 CE sites submitted data. Long-term (1984–2018) declines in abundance were observed for five migrant, one partial migrant and four resident species while long-term increases in abundance continue to be recorded for two short-distance migrants and four resident species. Seven species are exhibiting significant long-term declines in productivity while only Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs is exhibiting a significant long-term increase. Long-term trends in survival indicate increases for 14 species and declines for six. Compared to the five-year mean (2014–18), the abundance of eight species decreased significantly in 2019, with five species being recorded in lower numbers than in any previous year since CES monitoring began. Significant increases in abundance were recorded for six species. Productivity increased significantly for two migrant and six resident species in 2019 and decreased for only one species; Productivity rates were higher in 2019 than in any previous year for Chaffinch. Significant declines in survival rate were observed in one species in 2019 compared to the five-year mean; no species exhibited a significant increase. The number of Retrapping Adults for Survival submissions increased slightly in 2019 to 195. In total, 59 species were monitored, with Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca (22 projects), Starling Sturnus vulgaris (17), House Sparrow Passer domesticus (16), Sand Martin Riparia riparia (11) and Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus (10) the species most studied. A total of 1 050 520 birds were ringed during the year, comprising 181 766 nestlings, 518 575 first-year birds, 318 390 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older) and 31 789 birds whose age could not be determined. In addition, there were 243 775 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. In total, 45 610 recoveries (birds found dead, recaptured or resighted at least 5 km from the place of ringing) of BTO-ringed birds were reported in 2019. The Appendix highlights a selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements, as well as longevity records established during the year. A total of 41 367 NRS submissions were received in 2019, higher than the previous season but otherwise the lowest annual total since 2013. Mean laying dates for 2019 were significantly earlier than the five-year mean (2014–18) for 12 of 52 species analysed and five species displayed a significant increase in breeding success (fledglings per breeding attempt). Permits or licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (as amended), were prepared and issued to 547 ringers and nest recorders in 2019. During 2019, the use of special methods was authorised for 613 marking projects and 158 trapping projects.

Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of trophic synchrony has largely been neglected, even though the degree to which mismatch varies in space has implications for meso-scale population dynamics and evolution. Here we quantify latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch, using phenological data on an oak-caterpillar-bird system from across the UK. Increasing latitude delays phenology of all species, but more so for oak, resulting in a shorter interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass at northern locations. Asynchrony found between peak caterpillar biomass and peak nestling demand of blue tits, great tits and pied flycatchers increases in earlier (warm) springs. There is no evidence of spatial variation in the timing of peak nestling demand relative to peak caterpillar biomass for any species. Phenological mismatch alone is thus unlikely to explain spatial variation in population trends. Given projections of continued spring warming, we predict that temperate forest birds will become increasingly mismatched with peak caterpillar timing. Latitudinal invariance in the direction of mismatch may act as a double-edged sword that presents no opportunities for spatial buffering from the effects of mismatch on population size, but generates spatially consistent directional selection on timing, which could facilitate rapid evolutionary change.

This is the 80th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2016. BTO and JNCC have used seabird population data to investigate how demographic processes drive population changes, enabling improved population models to be produced. These population models were used to help quantify the risks associated with large-scale infrastructure projects (e.g. windfarms) and recommendations were made concerning approaches to be used in particular circumstances. Density dependence in seabirds, and its potential impact on population models, was also reviewed but little evidence of significant effects was found. Research on the demographic causes of declines in migratory species, undertaken in collaboration with the University of East Anglia, focused on population changes in Willow Warblers Phylloscopus trochilus. Data from the Nest Record Scheme (NRS), Constant Effort Sites scheme (CES) and the Breeding Bird Survey were combined; the results showed that reduced productivity levels in Willow Warblers in the south of Britain were driving the decline. In 2016, 134 CE sites submitted data. Five migrant and two resident species exhibited long-term (1984–2015) declines in abundance while four migrant and six resident species showed declines in productivity. Compared to the five-year mean (2011–15), the abundance of 10 species increased significantly in 2016 with Cetti's Warbler Cettia cetti, Chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita, Wren Troglodytes troglodytes and Robin Erithacus rubecula abundance at its highest since CES monitoring began. The abundance of three species fell significantly in 2016. Productivity increased for one species in 2016 and decreased significantly for 16 species. Survival rates increased significantly for three species and fell significantly for one. For the first time, the number of Retrapping Adults for Survival submissions passed 200. A total of 59 species were monitored and 24 projects ran for the first time. The most-studied species were Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca (23 projects), House Sparrow Passer domesticus (17), Sand Martin Riparia riparia (15) and Starling Sturnus vulgaris (13). Over a million birds (1 051 629) were ringed during the year, comprising 157 653 nestlings, 490 796 first-year birds, 370 019 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older) and 33 161 birds where the age could not be determined. In addition, there were 255 898 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. In total, 40 257 recoveries (birds found dead, or recaptured or resighted at least 5 km from the place of ringing) of BTO-ringed birds were reported in 2016. The Appendix highlights a selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements, as well as longevity records established during the year. NRS submissions in 2016 exceeded 45 000 for the third consecutive year, with a total of 46 514 records received. Mean laying dates for five species were significantly earlier than the five-year mean (2011–15) with 10 species laying significantly later. Three species displayed a significant increase in breeding success (fledglings per breeding attempt) in 2016 compared to the five-year mean, with four decreasing significantly. Permits/licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (as amended), were prepared/issued to 587 ringers and nest recorders in 2016. During 2016, the use of special methods was authorised for 559 marking projects and 73 trapping projects, a 13% increase on 2015.

Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species.

Capsule: Playback is effective at improving detectability of Little Owls.Aims: To trial a playback survey methodology for Little Owls in the UK to determine detectability and practicalities which could inform potential future national monitoring efforts.Methods: Nocturnal playback surveys were carried out in an open landscape in the east of England in spring 2015. Twelve 2 x 2 km survey squares were each visited four times. Little Owl calls were broadcast from three locations within each square along a linear transect and spaced 500 m apart. The responses of owls of any species were recorded. Little Owl occupancy was later confirmed through existing nest monitoring efforts.Results: Little Owls were detected responding to playback in all survey squares and were confirmed to be breeding in 8 of the 12. Detection and response rates were greater when combining data from multiple broadcast locations. The likelihood of Little Owls responding decreased with greater distance of broadcast location to known nest site, but no relationships were identified with time of evening or the presence of other owl species.Conclusion: Playback methodology proved to be effective at increasing detectability of Little Owls and this study provides an estimated response rate to inform future efforts.

This is the 79th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology’s Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2015. Constant Effort Sites (CES) data from across Europe, relating to eight common warblers, were analysed to investigate large-scale variation in survival rates and showed that changes in survival outside the breeding season are not a key driver of long-term population trends. Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) seabird data sets were reviewed to understand their ability to supplement geographically limited, long-term studies carried out by professionals. Most RAS studies re-encountered sufficient numbers of seabirds to estimate average survival rates; however, only those with re-encounter rates of around 40% were able to detect changes in survival rates efficiently. Over 100,000 nest records, relating to four insectivorous woodland passerines, were used to investigate changes in laying dates in response to temperature. Laying dates advanced by 2.3–4.8 days per °C rise in temperature, suggesting that these species may be able to change their laying dates in response to climate changes, even if the rate of climate change is rapid. Over 10,000 phenological data sets, including laying dates for 37 bird species, were used to look at the mechanisms behind species’ responses to changes in climate. Primary producers and primary consumers advanced timing of breeding more quickly than secondary consumers, potentially leading to a greater mismatch between the timing of breeding in birds (secondary consumers) and their prey availability under future climate-change projections. Data were received for 134 CE sites in 2015. Long-term (1984–2014) population trends derived from the CES data identified five migrant species and four resident species that have decreased significantly in abundance over this period. Abundance of three species decreased significantly in 2015 compared to the five-year mean (2010–14) with Whitethroat Sylvia communis abundance at its lowest since CES monitoring began. There were significant increases in abundance for 12 species, with Goldfinch Carduelis carduelis at its highest since CES monitoring began. Productivity decreased significantly in ten species and increased significantly in three species compared to the five-year mean (2010–14); productivity for Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus was at its lowest since CES began. There were no significant changes in survival in 2015. The total number of active RAS projects increased again in 2015; 190 submissions were received, including data from 23 new projects. Projects were carried out on 57 species, with Pied Flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca (23 projects), Sand Martin Riparia riparia (15) and House Sparrow Passer domesticus (20) still the most-studied species. The total number of birds ringed in 2015 was just under one million (987,253) and comprised 472,462 first-year birds, 319,230 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older), 27,993 unaged birds and 167,568 nestlings. In addition, there were 236,540 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. In total, 32,253 recoveries (birds found dead, or recaptured or resighted at least 5 km from the place of ringing) of BTO-ringed birds were reported in 2015. A selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements is presented, as well as longevity records established during the year. In total, 48,957 nest records were received for 2015, the highest annual submission since the Scheme began in 1939. Mean laying dates for five species were significantly earlier than the five-year mean (2010–14) with nine species laying significantly later. Only one species showed a significant increase in breeding success (fledglings per breeding attempt) in 2015, with four decreasing significantly. A total of 612 permits/licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act 1981 (as amended), were prepared/issued in 2015, a small increase from 2014. During 2015, the use of special methods was authorised for 489 marking projects and 68 trapping projects, 25% more than in 2014.

This is the 78th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2014. Many species have shifted their range towards the Earth's poles in response to global temperature increases. Data from four European Constant Effort Sites (CES) ringing schemes were examined to determine the impact of large-scale temperature variations on productivity in a group of seven migratory bird species to determine the potential for future range changes. Increased productivity at northern sites was apparent only in Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus, although there was evidence of local adaptation in six species, suggesting that the rate of northward range shift may be constrained by adaptation to local climatic conditions. A study on the role of carry-over effects in Redstart Phoenicurus phoenicurus, Spotted Flycatcher Muscicapa striata and Wood Warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix found that carry-over effects from passage regions impacted on the timing of breeding more strongly than climate on the breeding grounds and that warmer conditions in the breeding area were not associated with reduced productivity. Work on the impact of environmental variables on annual population changes found that, over 40 years, the strongest impact on migrants was rainfall in the Sahel. Over 25 years, positive population changes in response to wetter winters were found for 12 of 16 species studied. Data were submitted for 132 CE sites in 2014. Long-term (1984–2013) population trends derived from the CES data have changed little in the past year. The abundance of five migrant species and five resident species decreased significantly in 2014 compared to the five-year mean (2009–13). The abundance of five of these species (Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, Sedge Warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus, Blackbird Turdus merula, Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs and Greenfinch Chloris chloris) was at its lowest since CES monitoring began. There were significant increases in abundance for three species. Productivity decreased significantly in Willow Tit Poecile montana compared to the five-year mean (2009–13), but there were significant increases for eleven species (seven residents and four migrants),with productivity for Reed Warbler, Blackbird and Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula at its highest since CES began. There were only two significant changes in survival in 2014. A total of 176 Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) projects were active in 2014, the highest total ever, with 22 new projects starting, 17 of which involved RAS target species. Projects were carried out on Tawny Owl Strix aluco and Swift Apus apus for the first time. The total number of birds ringed in 2014 exceeded one million for the third time (1,047,026) and comprised 520,477 first-year birds, 303,086 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older), 29,799 unaged birds and 193,664 nestlings. In addition, there were 226,303 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. In total, 28,187 recoveries of BTO-ringed birds were reported for 2014. A selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements is presented, as well as longevity records established during the year. The numbers of birds recovered between 2010 and 2013 have been revised as data submitted as retraps have been examined and some have been reclassified as recoveries. For the fifth year running, annual totals of nest records surpassed 40,000, reaching 46,382. Mean laying dates for 55 species were significantly earlier than the five-year mean (2009–13) with 19 species laying significantly later than the five-year mean. Breeding success (fledglings per breeding attempt) increased significantly for 14 species, with none showing a decrease. Nearly 600 permits/licences to disturb breeding birds on Schedule 1 of the Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981), were prepared/issued in 2014, a small increase from 2013. The use of special methods was authorised for 398 marking projects and 47 trapping projects in 2014, 12% fewer than in 2013.

Capsule Breeding Willow Warblers, Phylloscopus trochilus, in the UK have advanced in timing of breeding but with little impact on overall productivity. Aims To quantify the impact of shifts in timing of breeding on changes in Willow Warbler productivity across the UK. Methods Using records of ∼7000 nests from the British Trust for Ornithology Nest Record Scheme, we quantify shifts in timing of breeding and seasonal variation in productivity and timing of breeding, and explore their relative contribution to changes in overall productivity. As population trajectories vary across Britain (south-east declining, north-west stable), analyses were conducted regionally. Results In both regions, nesting dates have advanced and early-season productivity is highest. However, while the proportion of early-season nests has increased, the seasonal decline in productivity in the north-west has lessened, and overall (season-long) productivity is stable. In the south-east, however, the seasonal decline in productivity has strengthened and, despite the advance in timing of breeding, overall productivity has declined. Conclusions Advances in timing of breeding have not led to increased Willow Warbler productivity in the UK, because the population-level impact of advances depends on seasonal patterns in both productivity and the distribution of nesting dates within a population.

Capsule Seasonal variation in garden House Sparrow numbers provides a tool to examine overall annual productivity, measuring the combined success of multiple breeding attempts and post-fledging survival.Aims To develop a metric to use British Trust for Ornithology (BTO) Garden BirdWatch (GBW) data to measure annual productivity in House Sparrows across regions and habitats exhibiting contrasting population trends.Methods We examine variation in annual productivity by quantifying the height of the seasonal peak of garden House Sparrows relative to pre-breeding numbers. We use BTO Nest Record Scheme (NRS) data to explore the demographic drivers of variation in this metric and relate differences to BTO/Joint Nature Conservation Committee/Royal Society for Protection of Birds Breeding Bird Survey regional population trends.Results GBW annual productivity was similar between rural and urban gardens but was lower in the south and the east of Britain (1.32 fledglings per adult), where populations are declining, than in the north and west where populations are stable (1.37 fledglings per adult). Analysis of NRS data showed similar regional variation in clutch and broods sizes.Conclusion The intensity of effort required to measure breeding success directly through nest monitoring has limited the scale of data collection but these results suggest that Garden BirdWatch (GBW) data can provide a measure of annual productivity across multiple sites. Regional variation in annual productivity (primarily driven by reduced clutch sizes) mirrors population trends, suggesting that reduced breeding success may be influencing House Sparrow population recovery.

This is the 77th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, incorporating the report of the Nest Record Scheme and covering work carried out and data processed in 2013. In recent years the schemes have focused on the collection of demographic data as part of our Integrated Population Monitoring programme. We expanded (from 10 to 17) the number of species for which we were able to construct integrated models and identified differences in the relative contributions of recruitment and adult survival to population change between increasing and decreasing species. Recruitment of young into the breeding population can be difficult to estimate. We investigated the use of proportions of birds in their second calendar year, or older, caught in the early summer using Blackbird Turdus merula as a model. Results showed that recruitment was a more important determinant of population change than survival. Changes in phenology are being documented widely and we carried out analyses looking at the timing of moult and reproduction in selected passerine species. Patterns in timing and duration of moult varied between resident species but were more aligned within migrant species, which also moulted faster. Temperature on spring breeding grounds accounts for more variation between years in breeding phenology than precipitation rates on the wintering grounds in 19 migrant species but neither climate variable affected clutch size. We continued to emphasise the value of targeted ringing and nest recording; increased participation in our structured ringing schemes has provided additional opportunities to improve the quality of demographic monitoring. Long-term (1984–2012) population trends derived from the Constant Effort Sites (CES) data have changed little in the past year. Three of the eight migrant species monitored by CES showed significant increases in productivity compared to the five-year average, although Sedge Warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus recorded its second-lowest productivity since CES began in 1983. Breeding performance of residents was mixed, with juvenile:adult ratios for some early breeders significantly lower than during the preceding five years, but significantly higher for some late breeders; one late-breeding resident species, Bullfinch Pyrrhula pyrrhula, had its highest productivity since CES began. Data were submitted for 124 sites. The number of active RAS projects in 2013 was 154, with 22 new projects, 13 of which involved RAS target species. The total number of birds ringed in 2013 decreased slightly (952,750) compared to 2012 and comprised 424,401 first-year birds, 355,278 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older), 19,776 unaged birds and 153,295 nestlings. In addition, there were 241,111 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. The reduction in numbers ringed compared to 2012 was probably a result of weather events in 2013. In 2013, there were 465 colour-marking projects registered, covering a total of 110 species; 65 new projects were registered during the year. There were 21,275 recoveries of BTO-ringed birds: the highest total ever. A selection of recoveries that have extended our knowledge of movements is presented, as well as longevity records established during the year. In total, 40,384 nest records were submitted. Of these, 82% originated from England, 8% from Wales and 9% from Scotland, the remaining 1% divided between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This was a reduction on the 2012 totals and probably reflected the poor start to the breeding season caused by the exceptionally cold weather in early spring. Long-term trends in nest productivity (fledglings per breeding attempt) were significant for 44 of the 72 species monitored. Of these, thirteen trends were negative, indicating a decline in breeding success over time.

Using the BirdTrends pages These pages are a one-stop shop for information about the population status of the common breeding birds of the wider UK countryside. The report is based on data gathered by the many thousands of volunteers who contribute to BTO-led surveys. For each of 117 species, users can quickly access the latest information on trends in population size, breeding performance and survival rates, as measured by our long-term monitoring schemes.

This is the 76th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering work carried out and data processed in 2012. Demographic integrated population monitoring has been the focus of the Scheme priorities in recent years and models that integrate ringing and nest record data and abundance trends were built for ten species for which sufficient data were available. Population drivers vary between species but they can be split between changes in breeding success, survival, or both. Multi-brooded species exhibited more seasonal variation in reproductive output than single-brooded species. In particular, migratory species showed a seasonal decrease in fledgling output, as do single-brooded species while residents generally showed a seasonal increase in productivity. Constant Effort Site (CES) data showed long-term (1984–2011) declines in four long-distance migrants and five resident species. However, four species (two short-distance migrants and two residents) have increased over the same period. Productivity of migrants monitored by CES was poor in 2012: seven of the eight species showed significant reductions in productivity compared to the five-year average and had the lowest productivity since CES began in 1983. Breeding performance of resident birds was low in 2012, with juvenile:adult ratios significantly lower than those calculated over the preceding five years for 10 of the 16 species. The number of CE sites increased in 2012, with data submitted for 125 sites, the highest total for a decade. The number of active RAS projects increased to 163 in 2012, with 21 new projects, eight of which involved RAS target species. In 2012 the total number of birds ringed (970,957) was the second highest recorded, and included 408,225 first-year birds, 377,199 adults (birds in their second calendar year or older), 23,772 unaged birds and 161,761 nestlings. In addition, there were 249,551 recaptures of ringed birds at or near the ringing site. The reduction in numbers ringed compared to 2012 was probably the result of the record wet weather that most of Britain & Ireland experienced in spring and summer 2012. A total of 18,693 BTO-ringed birds were recovered in 2012, which was lower than in 2011 but higher than in any previous year. This is the result of an increased number of birds ringed in the past 10 years, an increasing number of colour-ringed and tagged birds and subsequent resightings, more ringers within the Ringing Scheme, efforts to increase reports from members of the public of both metal and colour-ringed birds and an improvement in the way recoveries are processed. Recoveries of 22 BTO-ringed and 11 foreign-ringed individual birds that have extended our knowledge of movement of the species or constitute a new longevity record are presented. In total 44,895 nest records were submitted in 2012, the highest annual submission since the scheme began. Of these, 81% originated from England, 9% from Wales and 9% from Scotland, the remaining 1% divided equally between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. Submissions from England, Scotland and Northern Ireland have all risen by similar proportions since 2007 (18–22%), while those from Wales have increased by 34% over the same period. Long-term annual productivity trends have been calculated for three additional species. Long-term productivity trends were significant for 40 of the 72 species monitored and nine of these trends were negative, indicating a decline in breeding success over time.

Long-distance migrants may be particularly vulnerable to climate change on both wintering and breeding grounds. However, the relative importance of climatic variables at different stages of the annual cycle is poorly understood, even in well-studied Palaearctic migrant species. Using a national dataset spanning 46 years, we investigate the impact of wintering ground precipitation and breeding ground temperature on breeding phenology and clutch size of 19 UK migrants. Although both spring temperature and arid zone precipitation were significantly correlated with laying date, the former accounted for 3.5 times more inter-annual variation. Neither climate variable strongly affected clutch size. Thus, although carry-over effects had some impact, they were weaker drivers of reproductive traits than conditions on the breeding grounds.

This is the 75th annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering data received and work carried out in 2011. A review of priorities for the Scheme identified the need to increase submission of nest records through the Nest Record Scheme and to extend the network of Retrapping Adults for Survival (RAS) studies. Collection of different demographic parameters from the same site (eg nest records, numbers of breeding pairs, adult survival, etc) can provide a powerful tool to identify reasons for population change. Constant Effort Sites (CES) data showed long-term declines in abundance for four migrants (Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, Lesser Whitethroat Sylvia curruca, Sedge Warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus and Reed Warbler Acrocephalus scirpaceus) and three resident species (Willow Tit Poecile montana, Song Thrush Turdus philomelos and Reed Bunting Emberiza schoeniclus). Robin Erithacus rubecula and Reed Bunting had the lowest survival rates since CES began and survival-...

This is the 73rd annual report of the British Trust for Ornithology's Ringing Scheme, covering data received and work carried out in 2009. Much of the research carried out during the year looked at ways to improve the analysis of ringing data to understand population change. This included producing survival rates from the Constant Effort Sites (CES) scheme for the first time and further developing methods of analysing our demographic data sets in an integrated manner. Research was also undertaken on the biometric data to investigate how individual condition responds to long‐term environmental change. CES data suggested that the low productivity in 2007 and 2008, combined with one of the coldest winters since 1995/96 for residents, contributed to reduced adult numbers in 2009 in many species. There were significant decreases in Wren Troglodytes troglodytes, Sedge Warbler Acrocephalus schoenobaenus, Reed Warbler A. scirpaceus, Blackcap Sylvia atricapilla, Lesser Whitethroat S. curruca, Willow Warbler Phylloscopus trochilus, Long‐tailed Tit Aegithalos caudatus, Blue Tit Cyanistes caeruleus, Great Tit Parus major, Treecreeper Certhia familiaris, Chaffinch Fringilla coelebs, Greenfinch Carduelis chloris and Reed Bunting Emberiza schoeniclus. However, a good breeding season, for both residents and migrants, resulted in significantly higher productivity for 15 species, but significantly lower for Willow Tit Poecile montana, compared to the long‐term mean (1983–2007). Data for 104 Retrapping Adults for Survival studies were submitted, covering 39 species, three quarters of which are Birds of Conservation Concern. The total number of birds ringed (935,867) was the highest ever recorded, and was over 10% higher than the mean of the previous five years. However, the total number of pulli ringed in 2009 (179,712) was only 5% higher than the preceding five‐year mean, while that of fully grown birds (756,155) was over 13% higher. The recovery total (14,643) was also high. However, this is partly due to changes in the way that records of colour‐ringed and other specially marked birds are stored. The number of recoveries of foreign‐ringed birds (1,314) was higher than the mean of the preceding five years, although this figure is influenced by varying response times of different ringing schemes. Recovery details for 250 individual birds are given in the final section of the report. They include movements that confirm suspected or known migration patterns, unexpected movements and longevity records.