In California's San Joaquin Valley, groundwater overdraft has caused dramatic and continued land subsidence during two main periods, 1925-1970 ("the historic period") and post-2006. The impacts of the subsidence are severe, with modified flood risks, damaged aqueducts, and permanently altered aquifer dynamics. However, we do not have a complete record of the post-2006 subsidence due to a 2011-2015 gap in Valley-wide observations, and this makes it difficult to develop an appropriate management response. Here, we used satellite geodetic subsidence measurements to quantify the Valley-wide subsidence volume during 2006-2022. We found a total subsidence volume of 14 km3 over the 16 years, the same as was measured during 24 years of monitoring in the historic period. Considering the extraordinary 2006-2022 Valley-wide subsidence, we make high-level recommendations for subsidence mitigation, highlighting the importance of focusing groundwater overdraft reductions on the deeper aquifers where subsidence originates, and on localities where subsidence impacts are greatest. A remote-sensing based quantification of land subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley, California, finds that recent land subsidence has matched the totals recorded historically, and suggests limiting groundwater withdrawal from deeper parts of the aquifer system.

Monitoring groundwater storage is essential for sustainable groundwater management. Storage can be quantified by considering the two main components through which storage change is expressed: saturation changes and deformation of aquifer materials. Here, these components were quantified using a selected area in California’s San Joaquin Valley (USA). First, this involved following existing observational approaches: quantifying the component expressed through saturation changes by identifying head measurements from shallow wells and scaling by specific yield. In the San Joaquin Valley, existing approaches to estimate the deformation component are to ignore it or approximate it with a simple linear relation to measured head. However, head and deformation measurements made at extensometers revealed that assuming a linear relationship between deformation and head might provide a poor estimate, particularly during periods in which measured head is rising. Instead, InSAR-derived surface deformation measurements were used to quantify the deformation component of storage changes. This showed that the two components—saturation and deformation—accounted for storage declines of equal magnitude over 2015–2021, suggesting that the deformation component should not be neglected when estimating storage changes in regions with subsidence. Summing the two calculated components gave a new estimate of the total storage change that captured the major trends seen in independent estimates, while better accounting for the deformation component. An additional benefit is that this method accounts for the deformation component in the unconfined aquifer. This method to quantify total storage change can be a practical and effective tool to support groundwater management.

High rates of land subsidence, caused by groundwater overdraft, are resulting in millions of dollars of infrastructure damage in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV). In recent years, the use of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has enabled us to substantially improve our understanding of this subsidence. However, only very occasionally have the InSAR data been integrated with a physical model of subsurface compaction. Here, we have used InSAR and other data to parameterize and calibrate a 1D compaction model. We applied our model to a study area in the SJV where we had access to the necessary information on hydraulic head to develop model inputs. Our model simulated subsidence in the three aquifer system layers over the period 1952–2017, and is the first 1D compaction model in the SJV to simulate multiple aquifer system layers from the 1950s to 2017. The results from our model suggest that previous studies have significantly underestimated the time constants governing the slow, residual compaction of subsurface clays. We suggest that residual compaction of clays is a process that continues for decades‐to‐centuries, indicating that to significantly reduce subsidence requires some recovery of head, not just a stabilization. We also show how compaction in the lower, confined aquifer has accounted for over 90% of subsidence in the past 20 years. Although our study area is small, our findings are likely representative of the subsiding regions of the SJV, and our methodology can be applied to unconsolidated aquifer systems exhibiting subsidence worldwide.

Summary In the Central Valley of California, U.S.A., we used satellite data to map the precipitation in the valley and snowpack thickness in the adjacent mountains, and the subsidence from groundwater pumping. Geophysical methods provided the subsurface data needed to explain the pattern of subsidence and to search for recharge pathways.

[copied directly from first paragraph of paper] Land subsidence, caused by groundwater extraction and subsequent subsurface compaction, is an issue of global concern. Since the 1920s, there have been numerous periods of subsidence in California’s San Joaquin Valley leading to widespread sinking of the land surface which has locally exceeded 9 m. The most recent period of severe subsidence, which was triggered by the 2012-15 drought, is now causing damage which threatens the long-term viability of critical water distribution infrastructure in the Valley. However, there is neither a continuous monitoring record of the subsidence nor high-quality records of the hydrologic head changes in the subsurface which have caused the subsidence, making it impossible to understand, and thus mitigate, the subsidence. Here, we leverage subsidence and hydraulic head data from a variety of sources to create and validate a one-dimensional model of subsurface compaction and subsidence over the 65 years between 1952-2017. This model, which simulated up to 7.5 m of subsidence since 1952, provides a complete record of subsidence in our study region by filling crucial gaps in the observed record. Our model reveals the long-term processes causing subsidence, which operated over decades-to-centuries and caused exceptionally high rates of baseline subsidence in 2017, resulting in a critical risk of future subsidence. This risk is exacerbated as the Valley moves into drought conditions again in Spring 2021. We demonstrated an approach which provided the understanding of subsidence in the Valley needed to directly inform sustainable groundwater management, and which is applicable in subsiding regions around the World.

Convection in fluid layers at high Rayleigh number (Ra similar to 10(6)) have a spoke pattern planform. Instabilities in the bottom thermal boundary layer develop into hot rising sheets of fluid, with a component of radial flow toward a central upwelling plume. The sheets form the "spokes" of the pattern, and the plumes the "hubs." Such a pattern of flow is expected to occur beneath plate interiors on Earth, but it remains a challenge to use observations to place constraints on the convective planform of the mantle. Here we present predictions of key surface observables (gravity, topography, and rates of melt generation) from simple 3-D numerical models of convection in a fluid layer. These models demonstrate that gravity and topography have only limited sensitivity to the spokes and mostly reflect the hubs (the rising and sinking plumes). By contrast, patterns of melt generation are more sensitive to short-wavelength features in the flow. There is the potential to have melt generation along the spokes but at a rate which is relatively small compared with that at the hubs. Such melting of spokes can only occur when the lithosphere is sufficiently thin (less than or similar to 80 km) and mantle water contents are sufficiently high (greater than or similar to 100 ppm). The distribution of volcanism across the Middle East, Arabia, and Africa north of the equator suggests that it results from such spoke pattern convection.