Background Sipavibart is an anti-spike monoclonal antibody that neutralises SARS-CoV-2 with exceptions, including Phe456Leu-containing variants (eg, KP.2* and KP.3*). This trial assessed sipavibart efficacy and safety for prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 in participants who are immunocompromised. Methods In this ongoing, double-blind, international, phase 3 trial, we enrolled participants who were immunocompromised and aged 12 years or older at 197 hospitals, university health centres, and clinical trial units in 18 countries. Participants were randomly allocated 1:1 to a sipavibart group (intramuscular sipavibart 300 mg on days 1 and 181) or a comparator group (tixagevimab 300 mg-cilgavimab 300 mg on day 1 and placebo on day 181 or placebo on days 1 and 181), stratified by previous COVID-19 vaccination and infection status and use of tixagevimab-cilgavimab. The primary efficacy outcomes were symptomatic COVID-19 caused by any variant or symptomatic COVID-19 caused by non-Phe456Leu-containing variants within 181 days of dosing, assessed in the SARS-CoV-2-negative set, comprising all participants without a positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 at baseline and who received at least one trial intervention dose. Safety outcomes for adverse events were assessed 90 days following the first dose and for serious adverse events throughout the study in the safety analysis set (ie, all participants who received at least one injection of sipavibart or comparator). This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05648110. Findings Participants were screened from March 31 to Oct 27, 2023; 3349 participants (568% female) were randomly assigned: 1674 to the sipavibart group (five no first dose; 1669 sipavibart) and 1675 to the comparator group (nine no first dose; 1105 tixagevimab-cilgavimab and 561 placebo). Within 181 days of dosing, 122 (74%) of 1649 participants in the sipavibart group and 178 (109%) of 1631 participants in the comparator group had symptomatic COVID-19 due to any variant (relative risk reduction [RRR] 349% [975% CI 150 to 501]; p=00006), 54 (33%) participants in the sipavibart group and 90 (55%) participants in the comparator group had symptomatic COVID-19 due to non-Phe456Leu-containing variants (RRR 429% [95% CI 199 to 593]; p=00012), and 47 (29%) participants in the sipavibart group and 64 (39%) participants in the comparator group had symptomatic COVID-19 due to Phe456Leu-containing variants (304% [-18 to 525]). Adverse events occurred in 833 (499%) of 1671 participants in the sipavibart group and 857 (515%) of 1663 participants in the comparator group within 3 months of the first dose. One COVID-19-related death occurred in the comparator group. Serious adverse events considered related to trial intervention occurred in two (01%) of 1671 participants in the sipavibart group and seven (04%) of 1663 participants in the comparator group (none fatal). No serious cardiovascular or thrombotic events were considered to be related to sipavibart. Interpretation The primary analysis showed efficacy and safety of sipavibart in preventing symptomatic COVID-19 in participants who are immunocompromised when susceptible (ie, non-Phe456Leu-containing) variants dominated, although no efficacywas shown against resistant (ie, Phe456Leu-containing) variants that dominate as ofNovember, 2024. Funding AstraZeneca. Copyright (c) 2025 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.

Abstract Background Prior studies of the SARS-CoV-2 monoclonal antibody (mAb) combination AZD7442 (tixagevimab/cilgavimab) included limited numbers of immunocompromised (IC) participants, the target population for COVID-19 pre-exposure prophylaxis. We report repeat dosing data of AZD7442 in an IC population. Methods The randomized, open-label, ENDURE study (NCT05375760) enrolled individuals aged ≥ 18 yrs, weighing ≥ 40 kg, moderately to severely IC or at risk of inadequate vaccine response, and SARS-CoV-2–negative at baseline. Participants were randomized 1:1 to AZD7442 600 mg intramuscularly (IM) on Day 1 + 300 mg IM every 3 months (Arm A) or AZD7442 1200 mg intravenously on Day 1 + 600 mg IM every 6 months (Arm B). Month-12 dose was not administered due to non-safety related trial termination. Primary objectives were safety and immunogenicity (anti-drug antibodies; ADAs); secondary objectives were pharmacokinetics (PK) and SARS-CoV-2–neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers. Results Of 251 randomized participants, 124 were dosed in Arms A and B. Median exposure duration was 373.5 days in both arms. Participants’ mean age was 55.7 yrs, 53.2% were female, and 81.9% had not received a COVID-19 vaccine prior to study start. Adverse events (AEs) occurred in 84 (67.7%) participants in Arm A and 66 (53.2%) in Arm B. The proportion of participants with serious AEs (overall 9.3%) and AEs of special interest (3.1%) was similar across doses and following repeated dosing (Table 1). ADA incidence (% treatment-emergent ADA+) was similar in both arms (Arm A, 0.9%; Arm B, 2.7%) with no apparent impact of ADAs on safety, PK, or SARS-Cov-2 nAb titers (Table 2). Following dosing, mAb serum concentrations were stable in Arms A and B, with no accumulation observed (Figure 1). A strong correlation (R > 0.78) was observed between pseudovirus nAb titers and AZD7442 serum concentrations for both arms (Figure 2). Conclusion AZD7442 safety and ADA profiles were consistent across doses and dosing regimens. No accumulation in serum AZD7442 concentrations was observed with repeat dosing compared with the initial dose for each arm. These data may help inform development of future long-acting SARS-CoV-2 mAbs. Disclosures Taylor Cohen, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Chigo Munthali, MBBS, MSc, DPM, MFPM, CCT(Pharma Med.), AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Herve Tchouakam Kouekam, MSc, Cytel Inc. (contracted to AstraZeneca): Employee of Cytel Inc. Sam Matthews, MSc, Exploristics Ltd. (contracted to AstraZeneca): Employee of Exploristics Ltd. Audrey Sharbaugh, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Rohini Beavon, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Dilki Wickramarachchi, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Sharon Otal, HBSc, MBA, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Haitao Yang, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Anastasia A. Aksyuk, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Lindsay E. Clegg, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Huixia Zhang, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Antonella Nadia Tuillio, MD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Seth Seegobin, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee, holds or may hold stock Katie Streicher, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee of AstraZeneca and may own AstraZeneca stock or stock options. David Wheeler, MD, AstraZeneca: Funding for clinical research|Gilead: Funding for clinical research|Janssen: Funding for clinical research Lee-Jah Chang, MD, AstraZeneca: Employee of AstraZeneca Hugh Montgomery, MD, AstraZeneca: Advisor/Consultant|Millfield Medical Ltd.: Advisor/Consultant|Millfield Medical Ltd.: Consulted for Millfield Medical Ltd during the development of a new Closed Circuit Continuous Positive Airway Pressure machine.|UK NIHR BRC at University College London Hospitals: Funding

BACKGROUND:Data describing respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) neutralizing antibody (nAb) levels for nirsevimab, a recently approved, extended half-life, anti-RSV fusion protein (F protein) monoclonal antibody, relative to the previous standard of care, palivizumab, have not been reported. METHODS:MEDLEY was a randomized, palivizumab-controlled, phase 2/3 study of nirsevimab during 2 RSV seasons (season 1 and 2) in infants born preterm (≤35 weeks' gestational age; dosed season 1 only) or with congenital heart disease or chronic lung disease of prematurity (dosed seasons 1 and 2). Participants were randomly assigned to receive a single dose of nirsevimab followed by 4 monthly placebo doses, or 5 once-monthly doses of palivizumab. Anti-RSV F protein serology (ie, levels of prefusion [pre-F]/postfusion [post-F] conformation antibodies), nirsevimab and palivizumab concentrations, and RSV nAbs were measured in participant serum collected at baseline (pre-dose) and days 31, 151, and 361. RESULTS:Serologic data were similar in seasons 1 and 2. Nirsevimab predominately conferred pre-F antibodies, whereas palivizumab conferred pre-F and post-F antibodies. Nirsevimab and palivizumab serum concentrations highly correlated with nAb levels in both seasons. In season 1, nAb levels in nirsevimab recipients were highest in day 31 samples and gradually declined but remained 17-fold above baseline at day 361. nAb levels in palivizumab recipients increased incrementally with monthly doses to day 151. nAb levels followed similar patterns in season 2. nAb levels were ∼10-fold higher with nirsevimab compared with palivizumab across both seasons. CONCLUSIONS:Nirsevimab prophylaxis confers ∼10-fold higher and more sustained RSV nAb levels relative to palivizumab.

Nirsevimab, a monoclonal antibody with an extended half-life, is approved for the prevention of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease in all infants in Canada, the EU, Great Britain, and the USA. A population pharmacokinetics (PK) model was built to describe the PK of nirsevimab in preterm and term infants, and to evaluate the influence of covariates, including body weight and age, in infants. Nirsevimab PK was characterized by a 2-compartment model with first-order clearance (CL) and first-order absorption following intramuscular (IM) administration. The typical CL in a 5 kg infant was 3.4 mL/day. Body weight and postmenstrual age were the primary covariates on CL, with minor effects for race, second RSV season, and antidrug antibody status (deemed not clinically relevant). Congenital heart disease (CHD) and chronic lung disease (CLD) did not significantly impact nirsevimab PK. The final population PK model, based on 8987 PK observations from 2683 participants across 5 clinical trials, successfully predicted PK in an additional cohort of 967 healthy infants. Weight-banded dosing (50 mg in infants <5 kg; 100 mg in infants >= 5 kg) was predicted to be appropriate for infants >= 1 kg in their first RSV season. Together, these data support weight-banded dosing of nirsevimab in all infants in their first RSV season, including in healthy infants, infants with CHD or CLD, and in infants born prematurely.

The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in variants that can escape neutralization by therapeutic antibodies. Here, we describe AZD3152, a SARS-CoV-2–neutralizing monoclonal antibody designed to provide improved potency and coverage against emerging variants. AZD3152 binds to the back left shoulder of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein receptor binding domain and prevents interaction with the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor. AZD3152 potently neutralized a broad panel of pseudovirus variants, including the currently dominant Omicron variant JN.1 but has reduced potency against XBB subvariants containing F456L. In vitro studies confirmed F456L resistance and additionally identified T415I and K458E as escape mutations. In a Syrian hamster challenge model, prophylactic administration of AZD3152 protected hamsters from weight loss and inflammation-related lung pathologies and reduced lung viral load. In the phase 1 sentinel safety cohort of the ongoing SUPERNOVA study ( ClinicalTrials.gov : NCT05648110), a single 600-mg intramuscular injection of AZD5156 (containing 300 mg each of AZD3152 and cilgavimab) was well tolerated in adults through day 91. Observed serum concentrations of AZD3152 through day 91 were similar to those observed with cilgavimab and consistent with predictions for AZD7442, a SARS-CoV-2–neutralizing antibody combination of cilgavimab and tixagevimab, in a population pharmacokinetic model. On the basis of its pharmacokinetic characteristics, AZD3152 is predicted to provide durable protection against symptomatic coronavirus disease 2019 caused by susceptible SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as JN.1, in humans.

ABSTRACT AZD7442 is a combination of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-neutralizing antibodies, tixagevimab and cilgavimab, developed for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Using data from eight clinical trials, we describe a population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model of AZD7442 and show how modeling of “interim” data accelerated decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic. The final model was a two-compartmental distribution model with first-order absorption and elimination, including standard allometric exponents for the effect of body weight on clearance and volume. Other covariates included were as follows: sex, age >65 years, body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 , and diabetes on absorption rate; diabetes on clearance; Black race on central volume; and intramuscular (IM) injection site on bioavailability. Simulations indicated that IM injection site and body weight had > 20% effects on AZD7442 exposure, but no covariates were considered to have a clinically relevant impact requiring dose adjustment. The pharmacokinetics of AZD7442, cilgavimab, and tixagevimab were comparable and followed linear kinetics with extended half-lives (median 78.6 days for AZD7442), affording prolonged protection against susceptible SARS-CoV-2 variants. Comparison of popPK simulations based on “interim data” with a target concentration based on 80% viral inhibition and assuming 1.81% partitioning into the nasal lining fluid supported a decision to double the PrEP dosage from 300 mg to 600 mg to prolong protection against Omicron variants. Serum AZD7442 concentrations in adolescents weighing 40–95 kg were predicted to be only marginally different from those observed in adults, supporting authorization for use in adolescents before clinical data were available. In these cases, popPK modeling enabled accelerated clinical decision-making.

Abstract Objectives The evolution of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2) necessitates rapid methods for assessing monoclonal antibody (mAb) potency against emerging variants. Authentic virus neutralisation assays are considered the gold standard for measuring virus‐neutralising antibody (nAb) titres in serum. However, authentic virus‐based assays pose inherent practical challenges for measuring nAb titres against emerging SARS‐CoV‐2 variants (e.g. storing infectious viruses and testing at biosafety level‐3 facilities). Here, we demonstrate the utility of pseudovirus neutralisation assay data in conjunction with serum mAb concentrations to robustly predict nAb titres in serum. Methods SARS‐CoV‐2 nAb titres were determined via authentic‐ and lentiviral pseudovirus‐based neutralisation assays using serological data from three AZD7442 (tixagevimab–cilgavimab) studies: PROVENT (NCT04625725), TACKLE (NCT04723394) and a phase 1 dose‐ranging study (NCT04507256). AZD7442 serum concentrations were assessed using immunocapture. Serum‐based half‐maximal inhibitory concentration (IC50) values were derived from pseudovirus nAb titres and serum mAb concentrations, and compared with in vitro IC50 measurements. Results nAb titres measured via authentic‐ and lentiviral pseudovirus‐based neutralisation assays were strongly correlated for the ancestral SARS‐CoV‐2 virus and SARS‐CoV‐2 Alpha. Serum AZD7442 concentrations and pseudovirus nAb titres were strongly correlated for multiple SARS‐CoV‐2 variants with all Spearman correlation coefficients ≥ 0.78. Serum‐based IC50 values were similar to in vitro IC50 values for AZD7442, for ancestral SARS‐CoV‐2 and Alpha, Delta, Omicron BA.2 and Omicron BA.4/5 variants. Conclusions These data highlight that serum mAb concentrations and pseudovirus in vitro IC50 values can be used to rapidly predict nAb titres in serum for emerging and historical SARS‐CoV‐2 variants.

Abstract Background AZD7442 is a combination of two half-life extended monoclonal antibodies, tixagevimab and cilgavimab. A population pharmacokinetic (popPK) model for AZD7442 included interim data from phase 3 trials in pre-exposure prophylaxis (PreP; PROVENT), post-exposure prophylaxis (STORMCHASER), and treatment of mild-to-moderate COVID-19 (TACKLE) in adults. This popPK model facilitated inclusion of adolescents in the AZD7442 label, the decision to increase the recommended PreP dose of AZD7442 in response to evolving SARS-CoV-2 variants, and selection of doses for a pediatric study (TRUST). Upon completion of the adult phase 3 studies, the popPK model was updated to include data from eight studies. Methods The final popPK analysis included 4940 adult participants from North and South America, Europe, and Asia. To predict the PK of AZD7442 in pediatric patients, the effect of post-menstrual age on clearance was incorporated into the model. Results The PK of AZD7442, tixagevimab, and cilgavimab were very similar and dose-proportional. PopPK analyses found no difference in AZD7442 PK between PreP and treatment (Figure 1). The final AZD7442, tixagevimab, and cilgavimab models included body weight, sex, age, BMI, Black race, and site of intramuscular administration as covariates; none of these were clinically relevant nor required dose adjustment. When interim TRUST (pediatric) data became available, popPK predictions were compared to observed serum PK data (Figure 2). Good agreement was observed, confirming appropriateness of dosing adolescents ≥40kg with the same dosing regimen as adults, and adequate characterization of AZD7442 PK in pediatric participants. Safety data from TRUST and adult studies were comparable. Conclusion The PK of AZD7442, cilgavimab, and tixagevimab are comparable and follow linear kinetics with an extended half-life, allowing for prolonged duration of protection. AZD7442 PK is comparable across indications and between adults and pediatric populations. PopPK analyses facilitated rapid decision-making during the COVID-19 pandemic, including accelerating access to AZD7442 by adolescent patients ahead of the availability of pediatric clinical data. Disclosures Lindsay E. Clegg, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Oleg Stepanov, MS, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Henning Schmidt, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employed by IntiQuan, which received payment from AstraZeneca for work involved in this analysis Ventakesh Pilla Reddy, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Weifeng Tang, MD, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Michael Gibbs, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Sangeeta Sedani, MSc, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Antonella Nadia Tuillio, MD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Sam Sadow, MA, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Nuria Martinez-Alier, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Employement|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Taylor Cohen, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employement|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Saul N. Faust, FRCPCH PhD, AstraZeneca, Janssen, Pfizer, Moderna, GlaxoSmithKline, Novavax, Sanofi, Seqirus, Medimmune, Merck, MSD, Iliad and Valneva: Advisor/Consultant|AstraZeneca, Janssen, Pfizer, Moderna, GlaxoSmithKline, Novavax, Sanofi, Seqirus, Medimmune, Merck, MSD, Iliad and Valneva: Investigator Mark T. Esser, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds Mats Någård, PhD, AstraZeneca: Employee|AstraZeneca: Stocks/Bonds

Potassium (K+ ) is the main intracellular cation in the body. Elevated K+ levels (hyperkalemia) increase the risk of life-threatening arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death. However, the details of K+ homeostasis and the effects of orally administered K+ binders, such as sodium zirconium cyclosilicate (SZC), on K+ redistribution and excretion in patients remain incompletely understood. We built a fit-for-purpose systems pharmacology model to describe K+ homeostasis in hyperkalemic subjects and capture serum K+ (sK+ ) dynamics in response to acute and chronic administration of SZC. The resulting model describes K+ distribution in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, blood, and extracellular and intracellular spaces of tissue, renal clearance of K+ , and K+ -SZC binding and excretion in the GI tract. The model, which was fit to time-course sK+ data for individual patients from two clinical trials, accounts for bolus delivery of K+ in meals and oral doses of SZC. The virtual population of patients derived from fitting the model to these trials was then modified to predict the SZC dose-response and inform clinical trial design in two new applications: emergency lowering of sK+ in severe hyperkalemia and prevention of hyperkalemia between dialysis sessions in patients with end-stage chronic kidney disease. In both cases, the model provided novel and useful insight that was borne out by the now completed clinical trials, providing a concrete case study of fit-for-purpose, model-informed drug development after initial approval of a drug.

Objective To assess the reproducibility and clinical utility of clustering-based subtyping of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and established cardiovascular (CV) disease. Methods The cardiovascular outcome trial SAVOR-TIMI 53 (n = 16,492) was used. Analyses focused on T2D patients with established CV disease. Unsupervised machine learning technique called “k-means clustering” was used to divide patients into subtypes. K-means clustering including HbA1c, age of diagnosis, BMI, HOMA2-IR and HOMA2-B was used to assign clusters to the following diabetes subtypes: severe insulin deficient diabetes (SIDD); severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD); mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD); mild age-related diabetes (MARD). We refer these subtypes as “clustering-based diabetes subtypes”. A simulation study using randomly generated data was conducted to understand how correlations between the above variables influence the formation of the cluster-based diabetes subtypes. The predictive utility of clustering-based diabetes subtypes for CV events (3-point MACE), renal function reduction (eGFR decrease >30%) and diabetic disease progression (introduction of additional anti-diabetic medication) were compared with conventional risk scores. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated by Cox-proportional hazard models. Results In the SAVOR-TIMI 53 trial based dataset, the percentage of the clustering-based T2D subtypes were; SIDD (18%), SIRD (17%), MOD (29%), MARD (37%). Using the simulated dataset, the diabetes subtypes could be largely reproduced from a log-normal distribution when including known correlations between variables. The predictive utility of clustering-based diabetic subtypes on CV events, renal function reduction, and diabetic disease progression did not show an advantage compared to conventional risk scores. Conclusions The consistent reproduction of four clustering-based T2D subtypes can be explained by the correlations between the variables used for clustering. Subtypes of T2D based on clustering had limited advantage compared to conventional risk scores to predict clinical outcome in patients with T2D and established CV disease.

Aim To provide evidence on the cardiovascular and renal safety of metformin in chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3 to 4. Materials and Methods This post hoc analysis compared participants with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 15 to 59 mL/min/1.73m(2) in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) and the Saxagliptin and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (SAVOR-TIMI 53) trials taking metformin, with those not exposed to metformin during these trials, using a propensity-matching approach. Adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM). Metformin effect on eGFR slope was calculated using a mixed-model repeated measures analysis, and the number of lactic acidosis events was tabulated. Results No strong trend for lower metformin doses with lower eGFR values was observed in either the EXSCEL or SAVOR-TIMI 53 trials. In the 1745 metformin-using participants matched to non-metformin users, metformin had neutral effects on MACE (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-1.08; P = 0.28) and ACM (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.70-1.07; P = 0.18), with no interaction by CKD stage, or with use of exenatide or saxagliptin. An improvement in eGFR slope was observed with metformin in the CKD stage 3B cohort in SAVOR-TIMI 53, but not in other groups. Conclusions This analysis of participants with CKD stages 3 to 4 from two cardiovascular outcomes trials supports the cardiorenal safety of metformin, but does not suggest a consistent benefit on MACE, ACM, or eGFR slope across this population.

The effects of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) on renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes at high cardiovascular risk are modest or neutral. However, GLP-1RAs may confer clinical benefits in those at high risk of progressive renal function loss. We examined the effects of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) slope and urinary albumin:creatinine ratio (UACR) as a function of baseline UACR in 3503 EXSCEL participants (23.7%) with eGFR data available and 2828 participants (19.2%) with UACR change data available. EQW improved eGFR slope assessed via mixed model repeated measures, compared with placebo, in participants with baseline UACR >100 mg/g (0.79 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year [95% confidence interval {CI} 0.24-1.34]) and UACR >200 mg/g (1.32 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year [95% CI 0.57-2.06]), but not at lower UACR thresholds. EQW reduced UACR, compared with placebo, assessed via analysis of covariance, consistently across subgroups with baseline UACR >30 mg/g (28.2% reduction), baseline UACR >100 mg (22.5% reduction) and baseline UACR >200 mg (34.5% reduction). Thispost hocEXSCEL analysis suggests that EQW reduces UACR, with improvement in eGFR slope specifically in participants with elevated baseline UACR.

GLP-1 RA effects on major kidney outcome in unselected T2D patients at high cardiovascular (CV) risk are modest or neutral. However, GLP-1 RA may provide renal benefit in those at high risk of worsening kidney disease. We examined once-weekly exenatide (EQW) effects on eGFR slope and UACR change, as a function of baseline UACR, in a subset of EXSCEL participants. Of 14752 EXSCEL participants, eGFR slope was assessed in those with baseline UACR and ≥1 post-baseline eGFR (n=3503 [23.7%]) via mixed model repeated measures (MMRM) analysis (median follow-up 3.3 years). UACR percent change from baseline to first post-baseline measurement (median time 8.9 months) was assessed in those with baseline and ≥1 follow-up UACR (n=2828 [19.2%]) via ANCOVA of log-transformed UACR, with baseline UACR as a covariate. Participants with baseline UACR measurements were generally similar to the overall EXSCEL population, and balanced across treatment arms. EQW improved eGFR slope in those with baseline UACR>100mg/g and UACR>200mg/g, but not at lower UACR thresholds. No difference in EQW effect on eGFR was observed as a function of baseline eGFR, CV disease history, RAAS inhibitor use, or SBP. UACR improvement was similar across UACR categories. This EXSCEL post-hoc analysis suggests that EQW reduces UACR, with improvement in eGFR slope specifically in participants with elevated baseline UACR. Disclosure L.E. Clegg: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. A. van der Aart: None. R.C. Penland: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. D.W. Boulton: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb. C. Sjöström: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. R.J. Mentz: Consultant; Self; Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals Inc., Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, Sanofi. Research Support; Self; GlaxoSmithKline plc. R.R. Holman: Advisory Panel; Self; Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., Novartis AG, Novo Nordisk A/S. Research Support; Self; AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. H.L. Heerspink: Consultant; Self; AbbVie Inc., AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, CSL Behring, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation, Mundipharma International, Retrophin, Inc. Funding AstraZeneca

Aim To assess whether the previously developed multivariable risk prediction framework (PRE score) could predict the renal effects observed in the EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes trial using short-term changes in cardio-renal risk markers. Materials and Methods Changes from baseline to 6 months in HbA1c, systolic blood pressure (SBP), body mass index (BMI), haemoglobin, total cholesterol, and new micro- or macroalbuminuria were evaluated. The renal outcomes were defined as a composite of a sustained 30% or 40% decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Relationships between risk markers and long-term renal outcomes were determined in patients with type 2 diabetes from the ALTITUDE study using multivariable Cox regression analysis, and then applied to short-term changes in risk markers observed in EXSCEL to predict the exenatide-induced impact on renal outcomes. Results Compared with placebo, mean HbA1c, BMI, SBP and total cholesterol were lower at 6 months with exenatide, as was the incidence of new microalbuminuria. The PRE score predicted a relative risk reduction for the 30% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint of 11.3% (HR 0.89; 95% CI 0.83-0.94), compared with 12.7% (HR 0.87; 0.77-0.99) observed risk reduction. For the 40% eGFR decline + ESRD endpoint, the predicted and observed risk reductions were 11.0% (HR 0.89; 0.82-0.97) and 13.7% (HR 0.86, 0.72-1.04), respectively. Conclusions Integrating short-term risk marker changes into a multivariable risk score predicted the magnitude of renal risk reduction observed in EXSCEL.

Background Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) improve cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes through distinct mechanisms. However, evidence on clinical outcomes in patients treated with both GLP-1 RA and SGLT2i is lacking. We aim to provide insight into the effects of open-label SGLT2i use in parallel with or shortly after once-weekly GLP-1 RA exenatide (EQW) on cardiorenal outcomes. Methods In the EXSCEL cardiovascular outcomes trial EQW arm, SGLT2i drop-in occurred in 8.7% of participants. These EQW+SGLT2i users were propensity-matched to: (1) placebo-arm participants not taking SGLT2i (n = 572 per group); and to (2) EQW-arm participants not taking SGLT2i (n = 575), based on their last measured characteristics before SGLT2i initiation, and equivalent study visit in comparator groups. Time-to-first major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM) were compared using Cox regression analyses. eGFR slopes were quantified using mixed model repeated measurement analyses. Results In adjusted analyses, the risk for MACE with combination EQW+SGLT2i use was numerically lower compared with both placebo (adjusted hazard ratio 0.68, 95% CI 0.39–1.17) and EQW alone (0.85, 0.48–1.49). Risk of ACM was nominally significantly reduced compared with placebo (0.38, 0.16–0.90) and compared with EQW (0.41, 0.17–0.95). Combination EQW+SGLT2i use also nominally significantly improved estimated eGFR slope compared with placebo (+ 1.94, 95% CI 0.94–2.94 mL/min/1.73 m 2 /year) and EQW alone (+ 2.38, 1.40–3.35 mL/min/1.73 m 2 /year). Conclusions This post hoc analysis supports the hypothesis that combinatorial EQW and SGLT2i therapy may provide benefit on cardiovascular outcomes and mortality. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov, Identifying number: NCT01144338, Date of registration: June 15, 2010.

SGLT2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) and GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RA) improve cardiovascular (CV) and renal outcomes through distinct mechanisms. However, evidence is lacking on clinical outcomes in patients treated with both classes. EXSCEL, the cardiovascular outcomes trial for the GLP-1 RA exenatide, provides an opportunity to explore CV and renal outcomes with dual GLP-1RA and SGLT2i treatment, as ∼10% of participants had an SGLT2i added to their glycemic management during follow-up. Cohorts of SGLT2i users in the exenatide arm were propensity-matched to: 1) users of exenatide but not SGLT2i; 2) placebo arm participants that did not take SGLT2i, based on last measured characteristics before SGLT2i initiation. Subsequent time-to-first adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) and all-cause mortality (ACM) were compared using Cox regression analyses. eGFR decline was quantified in the matched cohorts using a mixed model repeated measurement (MMRM) analysis. Exenatide plus SGLT2i use numerically decreased the MACE hazard ratio and significantly reduced ACM risk, compared with exenatide alone and with placebo. The combination also significantly improved eGFR slope in both comparisons. This post hoc analysis offers support for the hypothesis that combinatorial exenatide and SGLT2i use may provide benefit on renal function and all-cause mortality. Disclosure L.E. Clegg: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. R.C. Penland: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca, Novartis AG. D.W. Boulton: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb Company. S. Bachina: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. M. Thuresson: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca. H.L. Heerspink: Consultant; Self; AbbVie Inc., Astellas Pharma Inc., AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Fresenius Medical Care, Gilead Sciences, Inc., Janssen Research & Development, Merck & Co., Inc., Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma Corporation. S. Gustavson: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Employee; Spouse/Partner; AstraZeneca. C. Sjöström: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; AstraZeneca. J.A. Ruggles: Employee; Self; AstraZeneca. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Apple, AstraZeneca. A.F. Hernandez: Consultant; Self; AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. Research Support; Self; AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline plc., Merck & Co., Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. J.B. Buse: Consultant; Self; Neurimmune AG. Research Support; Self; AstraZeneca, National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, Novo Nordisk A/S, Sanofi, vTv Therapeutics. Stock/Shareholder; Self; Mellitus Health, PhaseBio Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Stability Health. Other Relationship; Self; ADOCIA, AstraZeneca, Dance Biopharm Holdings Inc., Eli Lilly and Company, MannKind Corporation, NovaTarg, Novo Nordisk A/S, Senseonics, vTv Therapeutics, Zafgen, Inc. R.J. Mentz: Advisory Panel; Self; Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH. Research Support; Self; GlaxoSmithKline plc. Other Relationship; Self; Amgen Inc., AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Merck & Co., Inc., Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. R.R. Holman: Advisory Panel; Self; Bayer AG, Novartis AG, Novo Nordisk A/S. Research Support; Self; AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp. Other Relationship; Self; AstraZeneca, Bayer AG, GlaxoSmithKline plc., Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Inducing therapeutic angiogenesis to effectively form hierarchical, non-leaky networks of perfused vessels in tissue engineering applications and ischemic disease remains an unmet challenge, despite extensive research and multiple clinical trials. Here, we use a previously-developed, multi-scale, computational systems pharmacology model of human peripheral artery disease to screen a diverse array of promising pro-angiogenic strategies, including gene therapy, biomaterials, and antibodies. Our previously-validated model explicitly accounts for VEGF immobilization, Neuropilin-1 binding, and weak activation of VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR2) by the "VEGFxxxb" isoforms. First, we examine biomaterial-based delivery of VEGF engineered for increased affinity to the extracellular matrix. We show that these constructs maintain VEGF close to physiological levels and extend the duration of VEGFR2 activation. We demonstrate the importance of sub-saturating VEGF dosing to prevent angioma formation. Second, we examine the potential of ligand- or receptor-based gene therapy to normalize VEGF receptor signaling. Third, we explore the potential for antibody-based pro-angiogenic therapy. Our model supports recent observations that improvement in perfusion following treatment with anti-VEGF165b in mice is mediated by VEGF-receptor 1, not VEGFR2. Surprisingly, the model predicts that the approved anti-VEGF cancer drug, bevacizumab, may actually improve signaling of both VEGFR1 and VEGFR2 via a novel 'antibody swapping' effect that we demonstrate here. Altogether, this model provides insight into the mechanisms of action of several classes of pro-angiogenic strategies within the context of the complex molecular and physiological processes occurring in vivo. We identify molecular signaling similarities between promising approaches and key differences between promising and ineffective strategies.