本文在考虑事件恢复期的情景下,扩展了Jung[7]的针对进出口国际贸易的非正常投入产出模型.将2012年中日“钓鱼岛事件”视为一类政治争端事件,在几个假设前提下,评估该事件给中国的产业经济系统带来的间接经济损失,并筛选出对该事件较为敏感的产业.结果表明:“钓鱼岛事件”严重影响了中日贸易,2012年中日进出口贸易总额同比减少134.3716亿美元,考虑到产业经济系统内部的技术经济关联性,估算出“钓鱼岛事件”带来的静态间接经济损失区间为[3653.7644亿元,8114.5747亿元];然后假设“钓鱼岛事件”在1年、2年、3年、5年、10年和15年内得以解决,分别计算了该事件带来的间接经济损失区间;筛选出了“钓鱼岛事件”的高敏感行业:通用、专用设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业和金属制品业等.最后提出了相应的政策建议.本文的研究方法可为类似事件的损失评估提供借鉴,研究结果可为政府、行业管理部门和相关企业提供参考.

While political disputes occur frequently and widely among many countries, their impact on the international trade is unclear and less systematically investigated. Considering the 2012 Diaoyu Islands Dispute, under several premised assumptions, this paper applies the international trade Inoperability Input-Output Model to determine the indirect economic loss and to screen out Chinese industries that are sensitive to the dispute. Results based on Leontief's technical coefficients matrix show that the total indirect economic loss of China's gross trade is between RMB 540.4226 billion and RMB 1023.3068 billion. Industries that are sensitive to the dispute include electrical equipment and machinery, general special equipment manufacturing, metal smelting and rolling processing, manufacture and processing of metals and metal products, and chemical. The empirical findings suggest that China establish an early-warning mechanism and trade assistance system, so that key industries that were damaged could be properly compensated.

目前高校科研经费预算管理中存在预算执行缺乏严肃性、预算执行偏离批复预算、预算控制力度不足、预算执行缺乏效亟性评估等一系列问题,加强预算管理刻不容缓.本文以上海复旦天翼账务管理系统V4.2为基础,探讨如何利用该系统管理功能实现科研经费预算控制管理.

Concentrating on consuming coefficient, partition coefficient, and Leontief inverse matrix, relevant concepts and algorithms are developed for estimating the impact of meteorological services including the associated (indirect, complete) economic effect. Subsequently, quantitative estimations are particularly obtained for the meteorological services in Jiangxi province by utilizing the input-output method. It is found that the economic effects are noticeably rescued by the preventive strategies developed from both the meteorological information and internal relevance (interdependency) in the industrial economic system. Another finding is that the ratio range of input in the complete economic effect on meteorological services is about 1 : 108.27–1 : 183.06, remarkably different from a previous estimation based on the Delphi method (1 : 30–1 : 51). Particularly, economic effects of meteorological services are higher for nontraditional users of manufacturing, wholesale and retail trades, services sector, tourism and culture, and art and lower for traditional users of agriculture, forestry, livestock, fishery, and construction industries.

利用1995～2007年的中国投入产出表，测算了中国细分行业的间接碳排放量，并在此基础上，基于细分行业面板数据，运用面板协整和面板误差修正模型，实证分析了中国整体和第二产业的经济增长、能源消耗与碳排放之间的长期均衡关系和短期影响。实证分析和结论稳健性检验的结果表明，中国经济增长、能源消耗与碳排放三者之间存在长期均衡关系；经济增长和碳排放之间存在正向的短期因果关系；能源消耗对碳排放具有负向短期影响。