BACKGROUND & AIM:Liver transplantation (LT) selection models for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have not been proposed to predict waitlist dropout because of tumour progression. The aim of this study was to compare the alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) model and other pre-LT models in their prediction of HCC dropout. METHODS:A multicentre cohort study was conducted in 20 Latin American transplant centres, including 994 listed patients for LT with HCC from 2012 to 2018. Longitudinal tumour characteristics, and patterns of progression were recorded at time of listing, after treatments and at last follow-up over the waitlist period. Competing risk regression models were performed, and model's discrimination was compared estimating Harrell's adapted c-statistics. RESULTS:HCC dropout rate was significantly higher in patients beyond (24% [95% CI 16-28]) compared to those within Milan criteria (8% [95% IC 5%-12%]; p < .0001), with a SHR of 3.01 [95% CI 2.03-4.47]), adjusted for waiting list time and bridging therapies (c-index 0.63 [95% CI 0.57; 0.69). HCC dropout rates were higher in patients with AFP scores >2 (adjusted SHR of 3.17 [CI 2.13-4.71]), c-index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.65-0.77; p = .09 vs Milan). Similar discrimination power for HCC dropout was observed between the AFP score and the Metroticket 2.0 model. In patients within Milan, an AFP score >2 points discriminated two populations with a higher risk of HCC dropout (SHR 1.68 [95% CI 1.08-2.61]). CONCLUSIONS:Pre-transplant selection models similarly predicted HCC dropout. However, the AFP model can discriminate a higher risk of dropout among patients within Milan criteria.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Little is known about how a sustained virologic response (SVR) to treatment of hepatitis C virus infection with direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) affects patient mortality and development of new liver-related events. We aimed to evaluate the incidence of disease progression in patients treated with DAAs. METHODS: We performed a prospective multicenter cohort study of 1760 patients who received DAA treatment at 23 hospitals in Latin America, from May 1, 2016, through November 21, 2019. We excluded patients with a history of liver decompensation, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), or solid-organ transplantation. Disease progression after initiation of DAA therapy included any of the following new events: liver decompensation, HCC, liver transplantation, or death. Evaluation of variables associated with the primary outcome was conducted using a time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During a median follow-up period of 26.2 months (interquartile range, 15.3-37.5 mo), the overall cumulative incidence of disease progression was 4.1% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.1%), and after SVR assessment was 3.6% (95% CI, 2.7%-4.7%). Baseline variables associated with disease progression were advanced liver fibrosis (hazard ratio [HR], 3.4; 95% CI, 1.2-9.6), clinically significant portal hypertension (HR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.2-3.8), and level of albumin less than 3.5 mg/dL (HR, 4.1; 95% CI, 2.3-7.6), adjusted for SVR achievement as a time covariable. Attaining an SVR reduced the risk of liver decompensation (HR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8; P = .016) and de novo HCC (HR, 0.2; 95% CI, 0.1%-0.8%; P = .02) in the overall cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment of hepatitis C virus infection with DAAs significantly reduces the risk of new liver-related complications and should be offered to all patients, regardless of disease stage.

The association between direct‐acting antivirals (DAAs) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) wait‐list progression or its recurrence following liver transplantation (LT) remains uncertain. We evaluated the impact of DAAs on HCC wait‐list progression and post‐LT recurrence. This Latin American multicenter retrospective cohort study included HCC patients listed for LT between 2012 and 2018. Patients were grouped according to etiology of liver disease: hepatitis C virus (HCV) negative, HCV+ never treated with DAAs, and HCV+ treated with DAAs either before or after transplantation. Multivariate competing risks models were conducted for both HCC wait‐list progression adjusted by a propensity score matching (pre‐LT DAA effect) and for post‐LT HCC recurrence (pre‐ or post‐LT DAA effect). From 994 included patients, 50.6% were HCV−, 32.9% were HCV+ never treated with DAAs, and 16.5% were HCV+ treated with DAAs either before (n = 66) or after LT (n = 98). Patients treated with DAAs before LT presented similar cumulative incidence of wait‐list tumor progression when compared with those patients who were HCV+ without DAAs (26.2% versus 26.9%; P = 0.47) and a similar HCC‐related dropout rate (12.1% [95% CI, 0.4%‐8.1%] versus 12.9% [95% CI, 3.8%‐27.2%]), adjusted for baseline tumor burden, alpha‐fetoprotein values, HCC diagnosis after listing, bridging therapies, and by the probability of having received or not received DAAs through propensity score matching (subhazard ratio [SHR], 0.9; 95% CI, 0.6‐1.6; P = 0.95). A lower incidence of posttransplant HCC recurrence among HCV+ patients who were treated with pre‐ or post‐LT DAAs was observed (SHR, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.2%‐4.0%). However, this effect was confounded by the time to DAA initiation after LT. In conclusion, in this multicenter cohort, HCV treatment with DAAs did not appear to be associated with an increased wait‐list tumor progression and HCC recurrence after LT.

This study aimed to compare liver transplantation (LT) outcomes and evaluate the potential rise in numbers of LT candidates with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of different allocation policies in a high waitlist mortality region. Three policies were applied in two Latin American cohorts (1085 HCC transplanted patients and 917 listed patients for HCC): (i) Milan criteria with expansion according to UCSF downstaging (UCSF-DS), (ii) the AFP score, and (iii) restrictive policy or Double Eligibility Criteria (DEC; within Milan + AFP score <= 2). Increase in HCC patient numbers was evaluated in an Argentinian prospective validation set (INCUCAI; NCT03775863). Expansion criteria in policy A showed that UCSF-DS [28.4% (CI 12.8-56.2)] or "all-comers" [32.9% (CI 11.9-71.3)] had higher 5-year recurrence rates compared to Milan, with 10.9% increase in HCC patients for LT. The policy B showed lower recurrence rates for AFP scores <= 2 points, even expanding beyond Milan criteria, with a 3.3% increase. Patients within DEC had lower 5-year recurrence rates compared with those beyond DEC [13.3% (CI 10.1-17.3) vs 24.2% (CI 17.4-33.1; P = 0.0006], without significant HCC expansion. In conclusion, although the application of a stricter policy may optimize the selection process, this restrictive policy may lead to ethical concerns in organ allocation (NCT03775863).

Introduction Although the effectiveness of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) has been reported in real-world settings, predictive factors of treatment failure are lacking. Therefore, we sought to explore the baseline predictors of treatment response to DAAs. Methods This was a prospective multicenter cohort study from the Latin American Liver Research Educational and Awareness Network (LALREAN) including patients who received DAA treatment from May 2016 to April 2019. A multivariate logistic regression model was conducted to identify variables associated with unachieved sustained virological response (SVR), defined as treatment failure (odds ratios [OR] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]). Results From 2167 patients (55.2% with cirrhosis) who initiated DAA therapy, 89.4% completed a full-course treatment (n = 1938). Median treatment duration was 12 weeks, and 50% received ribavirin. Definitive suspension due to intolerance or other causes was observed in only 1.0% cases (n = 20). Overall non-SVR12 was 4.5% (95% CI, 3.5-5.7). There were no significant differences in treatment failure according to HCV genotypes and the degree of fibrosis. Independently associated variables with DAA failure were liver function impairment according to the Child-Pugh score B OR, 2.09 (P = .06), Child-Pugh C OR, 11.7 (P < .0001); and liver transplant (LT) recipient OR, 3.75 (P = .01). Conclusion In this real-life setting, higher DAA treatment failure rates were observed in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and in LT recipients. These predictive baseline factors should be addressed to individualize the appropriate time-point of DAA treatment (NCT03775798; ).

Background & Aims Data from Europe and North America have been published regarding the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after treatment with direct antiviral agents (DAA). We proposed to evaluate cumulative incidence and associated risk factors for de novo HCC. Methods This was a prospective multicentre cohort study from Latin America including 1400 F1-F4-treated patients with DAAs (F3-F4 n = 1017). Cox proportional regression models (hazard ratios, HR and 95% CI) were used to evaluate independent associated variables with HCC. Further adjustment with competing risk regression and propensity score matching was carried out. Results During a median follow-up of 16 months (IQR 8.9-23.4 months) since DAAs initiation, overall cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.02 (CI 0.01; 0.03) at 12 months and 0.04 (CI 0.03; 0.06) at 24 months. Cumulative incidence of HCC in cirrhotic patients (n = 784) was 0.03 (CI 0.02-0.05) at 12 months and 0.06 (CI 0.04-0.08) at 24 months of follow-up. Failure to achieve SVR was independently associated with de novo HCC with a HR of 4.9 (CI 1.44; 17.32), after adjusting for diabetes mellitus, previous interferon non-responder, Child-Pugh and clinically significant portal hypertension. SVR presented an overall relative risk reduction for de novo HCC of 73% (CI 15%-91%), 17 patients were needed to be treated to prevent one case of de novo HCC in this cohort. Conclusions Achieving SVR with DAA regimens was associated with a significant risk reduction in HCC. However, this risk remained high in patients with advanced fibrosis, thus demanding continuous surveillance strategies in this population.

There are few published real-world studies on hepatitis C in Latin America. This paper describes a cohort of Colombian subjects treated with direct-acting antiviral agents. A total of 195 patients from 5 hepatology centers in 4 Colombian cities were retrospectively studied. For each patient, serum biomarkers were obtained, and Child-Pugh, MELD, cirrhosis and fibrosis stage were calculated. Additionally, viral load was quantified at initiation, end of treatment and at 12 weeks of completion. Adverse effects were recorded. Patients with liver transplant were compared with non-transplanted patients in terms of serum biomarkers. The patients had received 9 different regimes. The most prevalent viral genotype was 1b (81.5%). Overall, 186 patients (95.4%) attained sustained virologic response. When comparing transplanted vs. non-transplanted patients, those in the non-transplanted group were more likely to have cirrhosis (52.6% vs. 12.5%, p = 0.0004). Pre-treatment viral load was higher in the transplant group (1 743 575 IQR = 1 038 062-4 252 719 vs. 345 769 IQR = 125 806-842 239; p < 0.0001) as well as ALT and AST levels (82.5 IQR 43.5-115.5 vs. 37.0 IQR = 24.7-73.3; p = 0.0009 and 70 IQR = 41-140 vs. 37 IQR = 24-68; p = 0.004 respectively). Adverse events were reported by 28.7% of the patients; asthenia (5.6%) was the most prevalent. Our results are comparable with those from other countries in terms of therapy and biomarkers. However, our cohort reported less adverse events. Further research is needed in the region.