The fundamental trade-off between current and future reproduction has long been considered to result in a tendency for species that can grow large to begin reproduction at a larger size. Due to the prolonged time required to reach maturity, estimates of tree maturation size remain very rare and we lack a global view on the generality and the shape of this trade-off. Using seed production from five continents, we estimate tree maturation sizes for 486 tree species spanning tropical to boreal climates. Results show that a species' maturation size increases with maximum size, but in a non-proportional way: the largest species begin reproduction at smaller sizes than would be expected if maturation were simply proportional to maximum size. Furthermore, the decrease in relative maturation size is steepest in cold climates. These findings on maturation size drivers are key to accurately represent forests' responses to disturbance and climate change.

The benefits of masting (volatile, quasi-synchronous seed production at lagged intervals) include satiation of seed predators, but these benefits come with a cost to mutualist pollen and seed dispersers. If the evolution of masting represents a balance between these benefits and costs, we expect mast avoidance in species that are heavily reliant on mutualist dispersers. These effects play out in the context of variable climate and site fertility among species that vary widely in nutrient demand. Meta-analyses of published data have focused on variation at the population scale, thus omitting periodicity within trees and synchronicity between trees. From raw data on 12 million tree-years worldwide, we quantified three components of masting that have not previously been analysed together: (i) volatility, defined as the frequency-weighted year-to-year variation; (ii) periodicity, representing the lag between high-seed years; and (iii) synchronicity, indicating the tree-to-tree correlation. Results show that mast avoidance (low volatility and low synchronicity) by species dependent on mutualist dispersers explains more variation than any other effect. Nutrient-demanding species have low volatility, and species that are most common on nutrient-rich and warm/wet sites exhibit short periods. The prevalence of masting in cold/dry sites coincides with climatic conditions where dependence on vertebrate dispersers is less common than in the wet tropics. Mutualist dispersers neutralize the benefits of masting for predator satiation, further balancing the effects of climate, site fertility and nutrient demands. A new method to quantify three masting components from individual tree-years has revealed that globally, masting is uncommon in tree species that depend on mutualist dispersers, with its distribution further mediated by climate and nutrient availability.

Global change is altering patterns of community assembly, with net outcomes dependent on species' responses to the abiotic environment, both directly and mediated through biotic interactions. Here, we assess alpine plant community responses in a 15-year factorial nitrogen addition, warming and snow manipulation experiment. We used a dynamic competition model to estimate the density-dependent and -independent processes underlying changes in species-group abundances over time. Density-dependent shifts in competitive interactions drove long-term changes in abundance of species-groups under global change while counteracting environmental drivers limited the growth response of the dominant species through density-independent mechanisms. Furthermore, competitive interactions shifted with the environment, primarily with nitrogen and drove non-linear abundance responses across environmental gradients. Our results highlight that global change can either reshuffle species hierarchies or further favour already-dominant species; predicting which outcome will occur requires incorporating both density-dependent and -independent mechanisms and how they interact across multiple global change factors.

Tree fecundity and recruitment have not yet been quantified at scales needed to anticipate biogeographic shifts in response to climate change. By separating their responses, this study shows coherence across species and communities, offering the strongest support to date that migration is in progress with regional limitations on rates. The southeastern continent emerges as a fecundity hotspot, but it is situated south of population centers where high seed production could contribute to poleward population spread. By contrast, seedling success is highest in the West and North, serving to partially offset limited seed production near poleward frontiers. The evidence of fecundity and recruitment control on tree migration can inform conservation planning for the expected long-term disequilibrium between climate and forest distribution.

Global change is altering patterns of community assembly, with net outcomes dependent on species’ responses to the environment, both directly and mediated through biotic interactions. Here, we assess alpine plant community responses in a 15-year factorial nitrogen addition, warming and snow manipulation experiment. We used a dynamic competition model to estimate the density-dependent and independent processes underlying changes in species-group abundances over time. Density-dependent shifts in competitive interactions drove long-term changes in abundance of species-groups under global change. Density-independent processes were important when counteracting environmental drivers limited the growth response of the dominant species. Furthermore, competitive interactions shifted with environmental change, primarily with nitrogen, and drove non-linear abundance responses across environmental gradients. Our results highlight that global change can either reshuffle species hierarchies or further favor already dominant species; predicting which outcome will occur requires incorporating both density-dependent and independent mechanisms and how they interact across multiple global change factors.

Surface water in arid regions is essential to many organisms including large mammals of conservation concern. For many regions little is known about the extent, ecology and hydrology of ephemeral waters, because they are challenging to map given their ephemeral nature and small sizes. Our goal was to advance surface water knowledge by mapping and monitoring ephemeral water from the wet to dry seasons across the Kavango–Zambezi Transfrontier Conservation Area of southern Africa (300 000 km 2 ). We mapped individual waterholes for six time points each year from mid-2017 to mid-2020, and described their presence, extent, duration, variability, and recurrence. We further analyzed a wide range of physical and landscape aspects of waterhole locations, including soils, geology, and topography, to climate and soil moisture. We identified 2.1 million previously unmapped ephemeral waterholes (85%–89% accuracy) that seasonally extend across 23.5% of the study area. We confirmed a distinct ‘blue wave’ with ephemeral water across the region peaking at the end of the rainy season. We observed a wide range of waterhole types and sizes, with large variances in seasonal and interannual hydrology. We found that ephemeral surface water was associated with loam soils in the study area. From the wettest time period to the driest, there was a ∼44 000 km 2 (62%) decrease in ephemeral water extent across the region—these dramatic seasonal fluctuations have implications for wildlife movement. A warmer and drier climate, expected human population growth, and associated agricultural expansion and development may threaten these sensitive and highly variable water resources and the wildlife that depend on them.

The relationships that control seed production in trees are fundamental to understanding the evolution of forest species and their capacity to recover from increasing losses to drought, fire, and harvest. A synthesis of fecundity data from 714 species worldwide allowed us to examine hypotheses that are central to quantifying reproduction, a foundation for assessing fitness in forest trees. Four major findings emerged. First, seed production is not constrained by a strict trade-off between seed size and numbers. Instead, seed numbers vary over ten orders of magnitude, with species that invest in large seeds producing more seeds than expected from the 1:1 trade-off. Second, gymnosperms have lower seed production than angiosperms, potentially due to their extra investments in protective woody cones. Third, nutrient-demanding species, indicated by high foliar phosphorus concentrations, have low seed production. Finally, sensitivity of individual species to soil fertility varies widely, limiting the response of community seed production to fertility gradients. In combination, these findings can inform models of forest response that need to incorporate reproductive potential.

Lack of tree fecundity data across climatic gradients precludes the analysis of how seed supply contributes to global variation in forest regeneration and biotic interactions responsible for biodiversity. A global synthesis of raw seedproduction data shows a 250-fold increase in seed abundance from cold-dry to warm-wet climates, driven primarily by a 100-fold increase in seed production for a given tree size. The modest (threefold) increase in forest productivity across the same climate gradient cannot explain the magnitudes of these trends. The increase in seeds per tree can arise from adaptive evolution driven by intense species interactions or from the direct effects of a warm, moist climate on tree fecundity. Either way, the massive differences in seed supply ramify through food webs potentially explaining a disproportionate role for species interactions in the wet tropics.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22025-2

Despite its importance for forest regeneration, food webs, and human economies, changes in tree fecundity with tree size and age remain largely unknown. The allometric increase with tree diameter assumed in ecological models would substantially overestimate seed contributions from large trees if fecundity eventually declines with size. Current estimates are dominated by overrepresentation of small trees in regression models. We combined global fecundity data, including a substantial representation of large trees. We compared size-fecundity relationships against traditional allometric scaling with diameter and two models based on crown architecture. All allometric models fail to describe the declining rate of increase in fecundity with diameter found for 80% of 597 species in our analysis. The strong evidence of declining fecundity, beyond what can be explained by crown architectural change, is consistent with physiological decline. A downward revision of projected fecundity of large trees can improve the next generation of forest dynamic models.

Observational studies have not yet shown that environmental variables can explain pervasive nonlinear patterns of species abundance, because those patterns could result from (indirect) interactions with other species (e.g., competition), and models only estimate direct responses. The experiments that could extract these indirect effects at regional to continental scales are not feasible. Here, a biophysical approach quantifies environment-species interactions (ESI) that govern community change from field data. Just as species interactions depend on population abundances, so too do the effects of environment, as when drought is amplified by competition. By embedding dynamic ESI within framework that admits data gathered on different scales, we quantify responses that are induced indirectly through other species, including probabilistic uncertainty in parameters, model specification, and data. Simulation demonstrates that ESI are needed for accurate interpretation. Analysis demonstrates how nonlinear responses arise even when their direct responses to environment are linear. Applications to experimental lakes and the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) yield contrasting estimates of ESI. In closed lakes, interactions involving phytoplankton and their zooplankton grazers play a large role. By contrast, ESI are weak in BBS, as expected where year-to-year movement degrades the link between local population growth and species interactions. In both cases, nonlinear responses to environmental gradients are induced by interactions between species. Stability analysis indi-cates stability in the closed-system lakes and instability in BBS. The probabilistic framework has direct application to conservation planning that must weigh risk assessments for entire habitats and communities against competing interests.

SummaryT cell receptor mediated immunotherapy using engineered Hematopoietic Stem/Progenitor Cells leads to durable partial suppression of HIV in humanized mice. Sustained viral suppression is accompanied by viral evolution under selection pressure. This study highlights the potential for TCR immunotherapy and the need to target multiple epitopes.AbstractEffective CD8+ T cell responses targeted to the KK10 epitope of HIV presented by HLA-B*27:05, a protective HLA allele, correlate with the ability to control infection without antiretroviral therapy (ART). Here, we report an immunotherapy approach using two B*27:05-KK10-specific T Cell Receptors (TCRs) isolated from HIV controllers. Immunocompromised mice engrafted with human Hematopoietic Stem/Progenitor Cells (HSPCs) encoding for the TCRs showed differentiation into functionally active engineered T cells. Following infection with HIV, both TCRs showed sustained, albeit modest, viral suppression over 32 weeks, accompanied by a concomitant increase in CD4+ T cells. Sequencing of viral quasi-species from the plasma of infected mice demonstrated clear evidence for viral evolution under selection pressure from the TCRs. The most commonly observed mutation in the KK10 epitope was L6M, which preserved viral fitness but showed attenuated recognition by the TCRs. These studies show that TCR-immunotherapy was able to suppress HIV infection long-term while driving HIV evolution in humanized mice.

CD8+ T cells recognize and eliminate tumors in an antigen-specific manner. Despite progress in characterizing the antitumor T cell repertoire and function, the identification of target antigens remains a challenge. Here we describe the use of chimeric receptors called signaling and antigen-presenting bifunctional receptors (SABRs) in a cell-based platform for T cell receptor (TCR) antigen discovery. SABRs present an extracellular complex comprising a peptide and major histocompatibility complex (MHC), and induce intracellular signaling via a TCR-like signal after binding with a cognate TCR. We devised a strategy for antigen discovery using SABR libraries to screen thousands of antigenic epitopes. We validated this platform by identifying the targets recognized by public TCRs of known specificities. Moreover, we extended this approach for personalized neoantigen discovery.

HIV infection causes progressive depletion of CD4+ T cells and leads to severe immunodeficiency if left untreated. Current antiretroviral therapy can control infection, but does not cure it. The goal of this study was to develop a “functional cure” for HIV infection by providing a long-term, self-renewing source of antiviral immunity. To that end, we hypothesized that immunotherapy using engineered hematopoietic stem/progenitor cells (HSPCs) to express HIV-specific T cell receptors (TCRs) will be effective at controlling HIV. We first isolated six TCRs specific to the KK10 epitope from HLA-B27+ individuals and compared their function in vitro. Two TCRs, EC27 and EC5.5, were chosen for immunotherapy studies based on their superior function. To test HSPC-based immunotherapy, we transduced mobilized peripheral blood CD34+ HSPCs from HLA-B27+ healthy donors to express these TCRs and engrafted them in immunocompromised NOD/SCID/IL2Rγc−/− (NSG) mice. Transduced HSPCs were able to engraft mice and differentiate into T cells expressing the TCRs in peripheral blood and lymphoid tissues. Furthermore, engineered T cells isolated from engrafted mice showed KK10-driven expansion, cytotoxicity, and cytokine secretion. Expanded T cells were able to inhibit HIV-infection in vitro. Moreover, the functional activity of engineered T cells isolated from mice was comparable to modified primary T cells, highlighting their therapeutic potential. We are currently testing whether mice engrafted with transduced HSPCs can suppress HIV infection in vivo. If successful, these studies would demonstrate a “functional cure” of HIV infection, warranting further testing in clinical trials.