West Nile virus (WNV) is prevalent in the United States but shows considerable variation in transmission intensity. The purpose of this study was to compare patterns of WNV seroprevalence in avian communities sampled in Atlanta, Georgia and Chicago, Illinois during a 12-year period (Atlanta 2010-2016; Chicago 2005-2012) to reveal regional patterns of zoonotic activity of WNV. WNV antibodies were measured in wild bird sera using ELISA and serum neutraliza-tion methods, and seroprevalence among species, year, and location of sampling within each city were compared using binomial-distributed generalized linear mixed-effects models. Seroprevalence was highest in year-round and summer-resident species compared with migrants regardless of region; species explained more variance in seroprevalence within each city. Northern cardinals were the species most likely to test positive for WNV in each city, whereas all other species, on average, tested positive for WNV in proportion to their sample size. Despite similar patterns of seroprevalence among species, overall seroprevalence was higher in Atlanta (13.7%) than in Chicago (5%). Location and year of sampling had minor effects, with location explaining more variation in Atlanta and year explaining more variation in Chicago. Our find-ings highlight the nature and magnitude of regional differences in WNV urban ecology.

Background Since 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has moved rapidly across the United States, resulting in tens of thousands of human cases. Both the number of human cases and the minimum infection rate (MIR) in vector mosquitoes vary across time and space and are driven by numerous abiotic and biotic forces, ranging from differences in microclimates to socio-demographic factors. Because the interactions among these multiple factors affect the locally variable risk of WNV illness, it has been especially difficult to model human disease risk across varying spatial and temporal scales. Cook and DuPage Counties, comprising the city of Chicago and surrounding suburbs, experience some of the highest numbers of human neuroinvasive cases of WNV in the United States. Despite active mosquito control efforts, there is consistent annual WNV presence, resulting in more than 285 confirmed WNV human cases and 20 deaths from the years 2014-2018 in Cook County alone. Methods A previous Chicago-area WNV model identified the fifty-five most high and low risk locations in the Northwest Mosquito Abatement District (NWMAD), an enclave ¼ the size of the combined Cook and DuPage county area. In these locations, human WNV risk was stratified by model performance, as indicated by differences in studentized residuals. Within these areas, an additional two-years of field collections and data processing was added to a 12-year WNV dataset that includes human cases, MIR, vector abundance, and land-use, historical climate, and socio-economic and demographic variables, and was assessed by an ultra-fine-scale (1 km spatial × 1 week temporal resolution) multivariate logistic regression model. Results Multivariate statistical methods applied to the ultra-fine-scale model identified fewer explanatory variables while improving upon the fit of the previous model. Beyond MIR and climatic factors, efforts to acquire additional covariates only slightly improved model predictive performance. Conclusions These results suggest human WNV illness in the Chicago area may be associated with fewer, but increasingly critical, key variables at finer scales. Given limited resources, these findings suggest large variations in model performance occur, depending on covariate availability, and provide guidance in variable selection for optimal WNV human illness modeling.

Modeling vector-borne diseases is best conducted when heterogeneity among interacting biotic and abiotic processes is captured. However, the successful integration of these complex processes is difficult, hindered by a lack of understanding of how these relationships influence disease transmission across varying scales. West Nile virus (WNV) is the most important mosquito-borne disease in the United States. Vectored by Culex mosquitoes and maintained in the environment by avian hosts, the virus can spill over into humans and horses, sometimes causing severe neuroinvasive illness. Several modeling studies have evaluated drivers of WNV disease risk, but nearly all have done so at broad scales and have reported mixed results of the effects of common explanatory variables. As a result, fine-scale relationships with common explanatory variables, particularly climatic, socioeconomic, and human demographic, remain uncertain across varying spatial extents. Using an interdisciplinary approach and an ongoing 12-year study of the Chicago region, this study evaluated the factors explaining WNV disease risk at high spatiotemporal resolution, comparing the human WNV model and covariate performance across three increasing spatial extents: ultrafine, local, and county scales. Our results demonstrate that as spatial extent increased, model performance increased. In addition, only six of the 23 assessed covariates were included in best-fit models of at least two scales. These results suggest that the mechanisms driving WNV ecology are scale-dependent and covariate importance increases as extent decreases. These tools may be particularly helpful for public health, mosquito, and disease control personnel in predicting and preventing disease within local and fine-scale jurisdictions, before spillover occurs.

In Illinois, between 1990 and 2017, tick-borne diseases in humans increased 10-fold, yet we have insufficient information on when and where people are exposed to vector ticks (Ixodida: Ixodidae). The aims of our research were to compare contributions of passive and active tick collection methods in determining establishment of ticks of public health concern and obtain information on tick distributions within Illinois. We used three surveillance strategies within the Illinois Tick Inventory Collaboration Network to gather information about the ticks of public health concern: 1) passive collection (voluntary submission by the public); 2) systematic collection (biweekly active surveillance); and 3) special collections (active collections in locations of special interest). Of collected adult and nymphal ticks, 436 were from passive collections, 142 from systematic collections, and 1,270 from special collections. Tick species distribution status changed in 36 counties. Our data provide noteworthy updates to distribution maps for use by public health agencies to develop prevention and control strategies. Additionally, the program built a network of collaborations and partnerships to support future tick surveillance efforts within Illinois and highlighted how the combination of the three surveillance strategies can be used to determine geographic spread of ticks, pinpoint locations in need of more surveillance, and help with long-term efforts that support phenology studies.

West Nile virus (WNV) has consistently been reported to be associated with human cases of illness in the region near Chicago, Illinois. However, the number of reported cases of human illness varies across years, with intermittent outbreaks. Several dynamic factors, including temperature, rainfall, and infection status of vector mosquito populations, are responsible for much of these observed variations. However, local landscape structure and human demographic characteristics also play a key role. The geographic and temporal scales used to analyze such complex data affect the observed associations. Here, we used spatial and statistical modeling approaches to investigate the factors that drive the outcome of WNV human illness on fine temporal and spatial scales. Our approach included multilevel modeling of long-term weekly data from 2005 to 2016, with weekly measures of mosquito infection, human illness and weather combined with more stable landscape and demographic factors on the geographical scale of 1000m hexagons. We found that hot weather conditions, warm winters, and higher MIR in earlier weeks increased the probability of an area of having a WNV human case. Higher population and the proportion of urban light intensity in an area also increased the probability of observing a WNV human case. A higher proportion of open water sources, percentage of grass land, deciduous forests, and housing built post 1990 decreased the probability of having a WNV case. Additionally, we found that cumulative positive mosquito pools up to 31 weeks can strongly predict the total annual human WNV cases in the Chicago region. This study helped us to improve our understanding of the fine-scale drivers of spatiotemporal variability of human WNV cases.

Arsenic is a public health concern because of its widespread distribution and high toxicity, even when doses are small. Low birth weight (LBW) occurrence, birth weights less than 2500 g, may be associated with prenatal exposure of arsenic from environmental factors and consuming contaminated drinking water and food. The objective of this study was to examine whether mothers living in areas of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties with varying levels of background arsenic in surface soil and water were associated with the occurrence of LBW. Inverse distance weight in ArcGIS was used to interpolate arsenic concentrations from environmental samples and estimate arsenic concentrations by census tracts in the two counties. After excluding multiple births and displaced geocoding addresses, birth data were obtained for the years of 2005 (n = 5845), 2010 (n = 5569), and 2015 (n = 5770) from the Bureau of Vital Statistics at the Florida Department of Health to assess temporal differences. Generalized linear models were used to analyze and compare the association between child and maternal demographic information, socioeconomic characteristics, and the environmental estimates of arsenic with LBW. No significant association was found between environmental arsenic concentration and LBW, suggesting that environmental contamination of the pregnant mother's census tract may not be a useful proxy in assessing risk for LBW.

The spread of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse, throughout the United States has implications for the transmission potential of vector-borne diseases. We used a 30-yr data set of occurrence records in Illinois and developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to shed light on the patterns and processes involved in the introduction and expansion along the northern edge of the geographic range of this species. We also collected specimens from 10 locations and sequenced a segment of their mitochondrial COI genes to assess possible introduction sources and geographic patterns in genetic variation present within contemporary populations. We documented an increase in the number of observations throughout the southern and central parts of Illinois over the study period. The process through which this spread occurred is likely only partially due to local dispersal. The probability of successfully overwintering was likewise low, but both these parameters increased over the study period. This suggests that the presence of Ae. albopictus has been largely due to repeated introductions, but that in recent years populations may have become established and are leading to an increase in locally driven dispersal. There was considerable genetic diversity among populations in Illinois, with 13 distinct haplotypes present in 10 sampling locations, several of which matched haplotypes previously found to be present in locations such as Texas or Japan. Further research is needed to understand how the combination of continued propagule pressure and establishment of populations are driving the increase and expansion of this invasive mosquito along its northern distribution limit.

We updated the Illinois historical (1905-December 2017) distribution and status (not reported, reported or established) maps for Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae), Dermacentor variabilis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae), and Ixodes scapularis (Say) (Acari: Ixodidae) by compiling publicly available, previously unexplored or newly identified published and unpublished data (untapped data). Primary data sources offered specific tick-level information, followed by secondary and tertiary data sources. For A. americanum, D. variabilis, and I. scapularis, primary data contributed to 90% (4,045/4,482), 80% (2,124/2,640), and 32% (3,490/10,898) tick records vs 10%, 20%, and 68%, respectively from secondary data; primary data updated status in 95% (62/65), 94% (51/54) and in 90% (9/10) of the updated counties for each of these tick species; by 1985 there were tick records in 6%, 68%, and 0% of the counties, compared to 20%, 72%, and 58% by 2004, and 77%, 96%, and 75% of the counties by 2017, respectively for A. americanum, D. variabilis, and I. scapularis. We document the loss of tick records due to unidentified, not cataloged tick collections, unidentified ticks in tick collections, unpublished data or manuscripts without specific county location, and tick-level information, to determine distribution and status. In light of the increase in tick-borne illnesses, updates in historical distributions and status maps help researchers and health officials to identify risk areas for a tick encounter and suggest targeted areas for public outreach and surveillance efforts for ticks and tick-borne diseases. There is a need for a systematic, national vector surveillance program to support research and public health responses to tick expansions and tick-borne diseases.

Background: Since 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has moved rapidly across the United States, resulting in tens of thousands of human cases. Both the number of human cases and the level of mosquito infection (MIR) vary across time and space and are related to numerous abiotic and biotic forces, ranging from differences in microclimates to socio-demographic factors. Because the interactions among these multiple factors affect the locally variable risk of WNV illness, it has been especially difficult to model human disease risk across varying spatial and temporal scales. Cook and DuPage Counties, comprising the city of Chicago and surrounding suburbs, are among the areas hardest hit by WNV in the United States. Despite active mosquito control efforts, there is consistent annual WNV presence, resulting in more than 285 confirmed WNV human cases and 20 deaths in the past 5 years in Cook County alone. Methods: A previous WNV model for the greater Chicago area identified the fifty-five most high and low risk study areas in the Northwest Mosquito Abatement District (NWMAD), an enclave ¼ the size of the previous study area. In these locations, human WNV risk was stratified by strength of predictive success, as indicated by differences in studentized residuals. Within these areas, an additional two-years of field collections and data processing was added to a 10-year WNV dataset and assessed by an ultra-fine-scale multivariate logistic regression model.Results: Multivariate statistical approaches revealed that this ultra-fine-scale model resulted in fewer explanatory variables while improving upon the fit of the existing model. Beyond mosquito infection rates and climatic factors, efforts to acquire additional covariates only slightly improve model predictive performance. Conclusions: These results suggest human WNV illness in the Chicago area may be associated with fewer, but increasingly critical, key variables at finer scales. Given limited resources, this study suggests a large variation in the significance to model performance, and provides guidance in covariate selection for optimal WNV human illness modeling.

The authors wish to add the following correction to their paper published in IJERPH [...].

Background The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. This study investigates the combined, i.e. direct and indirect, impacts of climate change on the dynamics of malaria through modifications in: (i) the sporogonic cycle of Plasmodium induced by air temperature increase, and (ii) the life cycle of Anopheles vector triggered by changes in natural breeding habitat arising from the altered moisture dynamics resulting from acclimation responses of vegetation under climate change. The study is performed for a rural region in Kilifi county, Kenya. Methods and findings We use a stochastic lattice-based malaria (SLIM) model to make predictions of changes in Anopheles vector abundance, the life cycle of Plasmodium parasites, and thus malaria transmission under projected climate change in the study region. SLIM incorporates a nonlinear temperature-dependence of malaria parasite development to estimate the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium. It is also linked with a spatially distributed eco-hydrologic modeling framework to capture the impacts of climate change on soil moisture dynamics, which served as a key determinant for the formation and persistence of mosquito larval habitats on the land surface. Malaria incidence data collected from 2008 to 2013 is used for SLIM model validation. Projections of climate change and human population for the region are used to run the models for prediction scenarios. Under elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) only, modeled results reveal wetter soil moisture in the root zone due to the suppression of transpiration from vegetation acclimation, which increases the abundance of Anopheles vectors and the risk of malaria. When air temperature increases are also considered along with elevated [CO2], the life cycle of Anopheles vector and the extrinsic incubation period of Plasmodium parasites are shortened nonlinearly. However, the reduction of soil moisture resulting from higher evapotranspiration due to air temperature increase also reduces the larval habitats of the vector. Our findings show the complicated role of vegetation acclimation under elevated [CO2] on malaria dynamics and indicate an indirect but ignored impact of air temperature increase on malaria transmission through reduction in larval habitats and vector density. Conclusions Vegetation acclimation triggered by elevated [CO2] under climate change increases the risk of malaria. In addition, air temperature increase under climate change has opposing effects on mosquito larval habitats and the life cycles of both Anopheles vectors and Plasmodium parasites. The indirect impacts of temperature change on soil moisture dynamics are significant and should be weighed together with the direct effects of temperature change on the life cycles of mosquitoes and parasites for future malaria prediction and control.

Arsenic is an abundant, highly toxic element that is a global health concern due to damage from acute and chronic exposure and the potential for high local concentrations in heavily populated areas. In Florida, arsenic has been used heavily in agricultural, commercial, and industrial applications for decades. While studies have identified and quantified the contributions of arsenic to the state, there are fewer studies that have attempted to index to identify spatial distribution patterns. The aim of this study was to develop representative indices that would identify and estimate the distribution of arsenic from historic and present usage for the state of Florida at the county-level. Eight variables are summarized and categorized into two different types of arsenic indices that represent the arsenic distribution from natural occurrence and anthropogenic practices in Florida. The anthropogenic index had distributions scores that ranged from 0.20 to 1.60 with a mean of 0.61 (SD = 0.34). The natural index had distribution scores that ranged from 1.00 to 3.00 and a mean of 1.47 (SD = 0.43). Our finding noticed comparability between high arsenic distributions mainly occur in counties located in the northwestern and southwestern regions in both the anthropogenic and natural indices with diverse arsenic sources contributions.

West Nile virus (WNV) and Flanders virus (FLAV) co-occur in regions of North America. Because both viruses are maintained in a transmission cycle involving Culex mosquitoes and birds, screening mosquitoes for FLAV has been suggested as an enhancement to WNV surveillance and epidemic prediction. Using samples collected in 2010 and 2012 in Chicago, IL, USA, we demonstrate the presence of FLAV in four out of 287 (1.4%) Culex pools. We estimated minimum infection rates for WNV and FLAV to be 5.66 and 1.22 in 2010 and 8.74 and 0.61 in 2012, respectively. FLAV occurred 1 and 3 wk prior to the peak of WNV transmission in 2010 and 2012, respectively. FLAV sequences from Chicago were genetically diverse and phylogenetically representative of lineage A viruses from across the United States.

Arthropod-borne viruses are among the most genetically constrained RNA viruses, yet they have a remarkable propensity to adapt and emerge. We studied wild birds and mosquitoes naturally infected with West Nile virus (WNV) in a 'hot spot' of virus transmission in Chicago, IL, USA. We generated full coding WNV genome sequences from spatiotemporally matched bird and mosquito samples using high-throughput sequencing, allowing a molecular evolutionary assessment with deep coverage. Mean FST among samples was 0.66 (±0.02 SE) and was bimodal, with mean nucleotide diversity being higher between samples (interhost πN = 0.001; πS = 0.024) than within them (intrahost πN < 0.0001; πS < 0.001). Eight genomic sites with FST > 1.01 (in the PrM, NS2a, NS3, NS4b, and 5'-noncoding genomic regions) showed bird versus mosquito variant frequency differences of >30 per cent and/or polymorphisms fixed in ≥5 host or vector individuals, suggesting host tropism for these variants. However, phylogenetic analyses demonstrated a lack of grouping by bird or mosquito, most inter-sample differences were synonymous (mean interhost πN/πS = 0.04), and there was no significant difference between hosts and vectors in either their nucleotide diversities or levels of purifying selection (mean intrahost πN/πS = 0.28 in birds and πN/πS = 0.21 in mosquitoes). This finding contrasts with the 'trade-off' and 'selective sieve' hypotheses that have been proposed and tested in the laboratory, which predict strong host versus vector effects on WNV genetic variation, with heightened selective constraint in birds alternating with heightened viral diversity in mosquitoes. Overall, our data show WNV to be highly selectively constrained within and between both hosts and vectors but still able to vary at a limited number of sites across the genome. Such site-specific plasticity in the face of overall selective constraint may offer a mechanism whereby highly constrained viruses such as WNV and its relatives can still adapt and emerge.

Since the 1970s, mosquito-borne pathogens have spread to previously disease-free areas, as well as causing increased illness in endemic areas. In particular, dengue and chikungunya viruses, transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti and secondarily by Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, represent a threat for up to a third of the world population, and are a growing public health concern. In this study, we assess the spatial and temporal factors related to the occurrences of historic dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in 76 nations focused geographically on the Indian Ocean, with outbreak data from 1959 to 2009. First, we describe the historical spatial and temporal patterns of outbreaks of dengue and chikungunya in the focal nations. Second, we use a boosted regression tree approach to assess the statistical relationships of nations' concurrent outbreak occurrences and annual occurrences with their spatial proximity to prior infections and climatic and socio-economic characteristics. We demonstrate that higher population density and shorter distances among nations with outbreaks are the dominant factors that characterize both dengue and chikungunya outbreaks. In conclusion, our analysis provides crucial insights, which can be applied to improve nations' surveillance and preparedness for future vector-borne disease epidemics.

During June to September 2017, 7 mosquito control programs in the midwestern United States evaluated a total of 9 catch basin larvicide formulations using similar protocols. Treated basins were monitored among study sites to observe when larvicides failed to control mosquitoes in 25% or more basins within a site. Overall, when monitoring occurred within the maximum label duration of the larvicides, sites treated with a single larvicide tablet or briquet surpassed the 25% fail threshold more often than pellet and granular larvicide formulations. In 438 of the study basins, the depth from sump bottom to catch basin lid was measured. In basins that were deeper than 5 ft (1.5 m), larvicides failed to control mosquitoes significantly more often than those 5 ft or shallower.

The transmission of malaria is highly variable and depends on a range of climatic and anthropogenic factors. In addition, the dispersal of Anopheles mosquitoes is a key determinant that affects the persistence and dynamics of malaria. Simple, lumped-population models of malaria prevalence have been insufficient for predicting the complex responses of malaria to environmental changes.

Environmental reservoirs are important to infectious disease transmission and persistence, but empirical analyses are relatively few. The natural environment is a reservoir for prions that cause chronic wasting disease (CWD) and influences the risk of transmission to susceptible cervids. Soil is one environmental component demonstrated to affect prion infectivity and persistence. Here we provide the first landscape predictive model for CWD based solely on soil characteristics. We built a boosted regression tree model to predict the probability of the persistent presence of CWD in a region of northern Illinois using CWD surveillance in deer and soils data. We evaluated the outcome for possible pathways by which soil characteristics may increase the probability of CWD transmission via environmental contamination. Soil clay content and pH were the most important predictive soil characteristics of the persistent presence of CWD. The results suggest that exposure to prions in the environment is greater where percent clay is less than 18% and soil pH is greater than 6.6. These characteristics could alter availability of prions immobilized in soil and contribute to the environmental risk factors involved in the epidemiological complexity of CWD infection in natural populations of white-tailed deer.

Culex flavivirus (CxFV) is an insect-specific flavivirus infecting Culex mosquitoes, which are important vectors of West Nile virus (WNV). CxFV and WNV cocirculate in nature and coinfect Culex mosquitoes, including in a WNV "hotspot" in suburban Chicago. We previously identified a positive association between CxFV and WNV in mosquito pools collected from suburban Chicago in 2006. To further investigate this phenomenon, we compared the spatial and temporal distribution of CxFV during an interepidemic year (2011) and an epidemic year (2012) for WNV. Both viruses were more prevalent in mosquito pools in 2012 compared to 2011. During both years, the CxFV infection status of mosquito pools was associated with environmental factors such as habitat type and precipitation frequency rather than coinfection with WNV. These results support the idea that WNV and CxFV are ecologically associated, perhaps because both viruses respond to similar environmental drivers of mosquito populations.