When a mining company selects a site for development, the company begins a dialogue with the local community about receiving the necessary approvals for the mining permits. The dialogue focuses on how well the company can use science and technology to manage risk to the local environment, and on how much economic benefit will be gained by the local community for accepting the risk. A useful approach to better understand how the debate affects the outcome of the permitting effort is to use the method of “discourse communities and analysis”. This paper analyzes two efforts by Kennecott (Rio Tinto) and one by Exxon to develop base metal mine sites in the Upper Midwest of the USA. As the three case studies show, the local pro- and anti-mining discourse community members will not be changing their basic positions as the permitting of a new mine is debated. Accordingly, both communities are trying to convince undecided stakeholders rather than talking to each other. Both sides are using ever more sophisticated media methods to communicate their message to the undecided residents of the community. By winning the support of the majority of the undecided residents, political pressure can be used to sway the decision.

This paper addresses the fluctuations in real metal prices: are they simply random variations or do they display some degree of cyclicality? This study identifies peaks and troughs in the inflation adjusted prices for 14 metals, using monthly average data from January 1947 through December 2007. Duration dependence testing, which is performed on the expansions, contractions, and full cycles, finds many cases in which the duration of these phases are not purely random and have some degree of cyclicality. Additional characterization show that contractions generally persist longer than expansions (in contrast to macroeconomic cycles) that long-term real prices have been trendless, and that the amplitude of price changes over the phases has little regularity. For those performing this type of analysis, the appendices explain the procedures for dating turning points and assessing duration dependence.

This paper investigates the correlation and synchronization of cycles in the real prices of aluminium, copper, lead, tin, zinc, gold and silver from January 1947 through to July 2008. Standard correlation coefficients show strong correlations between all pairs of these prices, but this measure is difficult to interpret because it combines both the amplitude, duration and timing components of the movements in prices. The duration and timing of the cycles are measured separately using several cycle identification techniques. The co‐movements among the cyclical indicators from all these methods show very strong synchronization. We reject the hypothesis that these metal prices move independently of each other. This result indicates that there may be a ‘common cycle’ to real metal price movements and implies that price risk for producers and consumers of these metals is mostly systematic, or non‐diversifiable.

This study investigates and compares five upstream petroleum fiscal systems under crude oil price uncertainty. The fiscal systems analyzed are: the Alberta Canada tax and royalty system, the Papua New Guinea (PNG) (pre-2003) traditional Rate of Return (ROR) system, the Sao Tome and Principe/Nigerian Joint Development Zone (SNJDZ) Production Sharing Contract (PSC), the Tanzanian PSC/ROR hybrid system and the Trinidad and Tobago PSC. Contingent claims analysis is used to value the governments’ tax claims under uncertainty using a numerical approach, viz., Monte Carlo simulation. Each system is tested to obtain the after-tax value accruing to firms as well as the distortionary effects introduced by the fiscal systems. The results are then ranked. The Alberta Canada and PNG fiscal systems provide companies with the highest after-tax values while also being the least distortionary. The Tanzanian system is the lowest in both rankings, providing relatively low after-tax values and introducing strong distortionary effects. The SNJDZ PSC imposed a relatively high tax burden on companies with median distortionary effects. The Trinidadian PSC generated a median tax burden on companies but has strong distortionary effects.

The US mining industry is increasingly an industry of industrial and construction minerals production. In 2002, these types of minerals accounted for 80% of the value of non-fuel minerals produced in the USA. Industrial and construction mineral production tend to be smaller operations and nearer urban areas than metallic mining and have somewhat different problems. This paper is a study of the growing impact of urbanization and land-use fragmentation on mining, particularly industrial and construction minerals production. An analysis of the state of Michigan is used as a case study to present the issues and concerns.

There is a potential for overinvestment of resources into flow reduction when two cities jointly own a wastewater treatment plant. One city can shift more of the plant's total fixed cost onto the other city if it reduces its share of the wastewater flow into the sanitary system. Each city has an incentive to reduce its flow of groundwater infiltration and storm runoff into its sanitary system as long as the additional repair cost of doing so is less than the reduction in its total variable (treatment) cost plus the reduction in its fixed cost payment.

Thermoelastic stress analysis (TSA) has been used to monitor damage evolution in several composite systems. The method is used to measure full‐field hydrostatic stress maps across the entire visible surface of a sample, to quantify the stress redistribution that is caused by damage and to image the existing damage state in composites. Stress maps and damage images are constructed by measuring the thermoelastic and dissipational thermal signatures during cyclic loading. To explore the general utility of the method, test samples of several ceramic‐matrix and cement‐matrix composites have been fabricated and tested according to a prescribed damage schedule. The model materials have been chosen to illustrate the effect of each of three damage mechanisms: a single crack that is bridged by fibers, multiple matrix cracking, and shear bands. It is shown that the TSA method can be used to quantify the effect of damage and identify the operative damage mechanism. Each mechanism is identified by a characteristic thermal signature, and each is shown to be effective at redistributing stress and diffusing stress concentrations. The proposed experimental method presents a new way to measure the current damage state of a composite material.

Damage tolerance, which depends upon inelastic mechanisms, is crucial to the general utility of ceramic matrix composites (CMCs). Recent experiments have confirmed several damage mechanisms and revealed that stress redistribution does occur in CMCs. The current composite paradigm relies on fiber coatings to achieve this damage tolerance. More recently, an Al2O3/ Al2O3 CMC was developed which attains damage tolerance through the use of a porous matrix. To evaluate this all-oxide material, tensile experiments were conducted on double edge-notched test specimens. An infrared imaging technique, known as thermoelastic stress analysis, was used to classify the damage mechanism and measure the extent of stress redistribution in double edge-notched specimens. Results indicate that the subject alumina/alumina composite exhibits a measurable degree of ductility by developing shear band damage zones.

One goal of this paper is to develop a model that explains metal consumption over time by the trends in world economic activity. Two alternative models of this relationship are examined over the 1950 through 1994 period for world consumption of aluminium, copper, lead and zinc. Another goal is to determine if there has been an unusual recent surge in the demand for these metals. Total world metal consumption is well explained by the first model which relates metal use to world activity in a few general macroeconomic sectors. However, in many situations even greater aggregation and simplification is required by the lack of recent economic data, resulting in the second model which is the intensity of use method. Both of these models are used to make metal consumption predictions. Comparing actual metal use against the predictions from the models demonstrates that in 1993 and 1994 there was some degree of unexpected and unusually high levels of demand for copper, lead and zinc, but only slightly so for aluminium. A detailed analysis of the demand for copper in 32 nations shows that there does not appear to be any simple explanation as to why some nations have had unusually high rates of copper use, whereas other nations have had unusually low consumption.

The future markets for industrial minerals depend on the business cycles of the industries that use these minerals. In this study, I develop a method to establish the relationships between the cycles in major sectors of the economy and the markets for minerals. This method is demonstrated for the use of cement, gypsum, salt, and asbestos in the United States since World War II. Assuming that past relationships will continue, we can forecast consumption for these minerals based on predictions of future trends in the economy.

This paper tests the proposition that the fluctuations in metal prices can be termed 'cyclical' as opposed to the proposition that they are random and thus that any apparent cyclicality is imaginary. We find that variations in metal prices over the medium term are not random and in many cases can be characterized as having some degree of periodicity.

The material composition of product is defined as the quantity of a material used in the production of one unit of a product during a year. This ratio is computed by dividing the quantity of goods produced duting that year, and has shown steady declines over time for many metals. These declining trends could be the result of several interrelated effects: the substitution of other materials, continued improvements in product design, and improvements in manufacturing technology. This paper demonstrates that these effects can be classified into two categories. First, existing products and manufacturing processes can be improved and made more material efficient. This is a short-run adjustment bucause no major changes are made to capital equipment. This adjustment process can be modelled by the use of learning curves. The second category of changes that allow adjustments in materials manufacturing plant redesign. This requires major capital investment to re-tool the manufacturing process and is therefore a long-run adjustment that can be characterizedby models of the diffusion of new tehnology. These two aspects (short-run learning curves and lon-run trends in the diffusion of technology) are demonstrated for the case of the materials used in manufacturing beer containers in the USA.

Here, for the first time, we developed Raman spectroscopy in combination with chemometrics for the quantification of adulteration of fresh coconut water by dilution, and its masking with sugars. Coconut water was extracted from young Costa Rican coconuts and heat treated to emulate pasteurization. Samples were then adulterated by dilution with water and single sugars, mixtures of sugars, and high-fructose corn syrup (HFCS). A total of 155 samples were analysed with Raman spectroscopy at 785 nm excitation and 620 spectra analysed with chemometrics. Results showed successful quantification of dilution and adulteration with single sugars between 1.9 and 2.6%, masking of dilution with mixtures of sugars at 9.8%, and masking of dilution with HFCS at 7.1%. It can be concluded that Raman spectroscopy has significant potential as a rapid accurate analytical method for the detection of adulteration in this product, with the ability to discern small abnormalities in sugar ratios within coconut water.

This paper develops a general model that can be used to explain past trends in metal consumption and to make long-term forecasts of metal requirements. The model identifies four apparent determinants of consumption that are explained by underlying economic trends. This framework is applied to the case of US steel consumption over the 1963-83 period and the model explains 73% of the variation in consumption over that period. The underlying economic variables are then projected into the future to yield forecasts to the year 2010, indicating slow growth in the use of steel in the USA.

This paper explores the general reasons for the sudden decline in the growth of world metal demand which began after 1974 and continues to impact the metal industries. For all of the eight metals studied, except aluminium, the dominant cause of this atrophy in demand is the stagnation in total world economic growth, which has caused reduced demand for all goods and services. In addition, consumer preferences have shifted away from metal-intensive goods, further reducing the need for metals. However, materials substitutions and manufacturing technologies have continued to evolve towards lower use of metal in each product at much the same rate after 1974 as before. Therefore, these aspects do not explain the sudden shortfall after 1974 except in the case of aluminium which experienced a dramatic change during the energy crisis years.

The growth in world demand for metals has slowed considerably since 1974, but the resulting problems for producers have been compounded because this slack demand was largely unanticipated and unrecognized until the early 1980s. Capacity thus continued to expand, based on expectations of recovery to the previous high growth rates in consumption. When this recovery did not materialize, a prolonged period of low real prices, loss of profitability, and plant closures resulted. The losses due to delayed recognition and adjustment may total as much as several billion dollars. These problems point out the danger of relying on extrapolations of past time trends rather than developing a fundamental understanding of the factors which determine metal demand when planning future productive capacity.