Accessibility of multispectral, multitemporal imagery combined with recent advances in cloud computing and machine learning approaches have enhanced our ability to model habitat characteristics across broad spatial and temporal scales. We integrated a large dataset of known nest and roost sites of a threatened species, the Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida), in the southwestern USA with Landsat imagery processed using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification (CCDC) time series algorithm on Google Earth Engine. We then used maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) to classify the landscape into four 'spectral similarity' classes that reflected the degree to which 30-m pixels contained a multispectral signature similar to that found at known owl nest/roost sites and mapped spectral similarity classes from 1986-2020. For map interpretation, we used nationally consistent forest inventory data to evaluate the structural and compositional characteristics of each spectral similarity class. We found a monotonic increase of structural characteristics typically associated with owl nesting and roosting over classes of increasing similarity, with the 'very similar' class meeting or exceeding published minimum desired management conditions for owl nesting and roosting. We also found an increased rate of loss of forest vegetation typical of owl nesting and roosting since the beginning of the 21st century that can be partly attributed to increased frequency and extent of large (≥400 ha) wildfires. This loss resulted in a 38% reduction over the 35-year study period in forest vegetation most similar to that used for owl nesting and roosting. Our modelling approach using cloud computing with time series of Landsat imagery provided a cost-effective tool for landscape-scale, multidecadal monitoring of vegetative components of a threatened species' habitat. Our approach could be used to monitor trends in the vegetation favored by any other species, provided that high-quality location data such as we presented here are available.

Context Recent increases in ecological disturbances driven by climate change and our expanding human footprint make it challenging for natural resource managers to keep apprised of current conditions and adjust management plans accordingly. To effectively conserve species in highly dynamic landscapes requires more timely habitat monitoring and a more responsive adaptive management cycle. Objectives We introduce a framework to automatically monitor and assess species habitats over a range of spatial and temporal scales. We then apply this framework by developing an automated habitat monitoring system for the Mexican spotted owl (MSO) in Arizona and New Mexico, USA, that will be linked to federal agency adaptive management plans. Methods We automated the process of monitoring and assessing trends in MSO habitat on an annual schedule using the Google Earth Engine cloud-based spatial analysis platform and dynamic data repository. We ran this system retrospectively on historical data to monitor MSO habitat from 1986 to 2020. Results The automated habitat monitoring system provided a 35-year MSO habitat time series with high accuracy. Widespread habitat gains and losses occurred every year, underscoring the need for continuous monitoring and the benefits of an automated workflow. Conclusions Automated habitat monitoring linked to adaptive management holds great promise in helping managers track the impacts of recent disturbances and adjust plans to meet goals even in increasingly dynamic landscapes. In a companion paper, Jones et al. ( 2023 ) demonstrate the utility of this approach by analyzing our MSO habitat time series to assess trends, drivers of change, and management implications.

Context Understanding habitat dynamics is essential for effective conservation as landscapes rapidly change. In a companion paper in this issue, Shirk et al. ( 2023 ) introduced an automated habitat monitoring system using Google Earth Engine and applied this framework to develop a dynamic model of Mexican spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis lucida ) habitat across the southwestern US from 1986 to 2020. Objectives We explored the application of this dynamic model of Mexican spotted owl habitat in the context of the species’ ecology. Methods We evaluated environmental correlates of Mexican spotted owl habitat, assessed potential spatial non-stationarity in habitat selection, estimated long-term trends in habitat by quantifying changes in habitat amount and quality between 1986 and 2020, and evaluated the extent to which habitat changes over the past 35 years have been driven by wildfire. Results Topography and climate appeared to outweigh reflectance-based (vegetation) metrics in describing Mexican spotted owl habitat and habitat selection was non-stationary across modeling sub-regions. Total habitat area for Mexican spotted owls declined by ~ 21% since 1986 (0.6% annually), but trends varied spatially and some even reversed over the past decade. Wildfire was responsible for between 8 and 35% of total habitat loss, depending on the sub-region considered. Conclusions The automated habitat monitoring system allowed trend estimation and accurate assessment of current habitat status for Mexican spotted owls; maps were accurate, spatially detailed, and current. The ability to continually produce accurate maps for large land areas for threatened species such as the Mexican spotted owl facilitates science-based land management on public lands in the southwestern US.

Wildlife biologists monitor the status and trends of American woodcock Scolopax minor populations in the eastern and central United States and Canada via a singing-ground survey, conducted just after sunset along roadsides in spring. Annual analyses of the survey produce estimates of trend and annual indexes of abundance for 25 states and provinces, management regions, and survey-wide. In recent years, researchers have used a log-linear hierarchical model that defines year effects as random effects in the context of a slope parameter (the S model) to model population change. Recently, researchers have proposed alternative models suitable for analysis of singing-ground survey data. Analysis of a similar roadside survey, the North American Breeding Bird Survey, has indicated that alternative models are preferable for almost all species analyzed in the Breeding Bird Survey. Here, we use leave-one-out cross-validation to compare model fit for the present singing-ground survey model to fits of three alternative models, including a model that describes population change as the difference in expected counts between successive years (the D model) and two models that include t-distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion effects (H models) as opposed to normally distributed extra-Poisson overdispersion. Leave-one-out cross-validation results indicate that the Bayesian predictive information criterion favored the D model, but a pairwise t-test indicated that the D model was not significantly better-fitting to singing-ground survey data than the S model. The H models are not preferable to the alternatives with normally distributed overdispersion. All models provided generally similar estimates of trend and annual indexes suggesting that, within this model set, choice of model will not lead to alternative conclusions regarding population change. However, as in Breeding Bird Survey analyses, we note a tendency for S model results to provide slightly more extreme estimates of trend relative to D models. We recommend use of the D model for future singing-ground survey analyses.

We estimated the allowable annual take of great black-backed gulls Larus marinus, herring gulls L. argentatus, ring-billed gulls L. delawarensis, and laughing gulls Leucophaeus atricilla in the U.S. portion of the Atlantic Flyway to help meet human safety and resource management goals. Gulls can pose a serious threat to aviation, negatively impact other colonial-nesting migratory bird species, and conflict with other human activities. We estimated an annual take limit using a model that incorporated intrinsic population growth rate, minimum population size, and a recovery factor for each species. We estimated intrinsic population growth by combining allometric with life table approaches. We used the recovery factor to restrict the take level of the great black-backed gull beyond that of the other species because of poor data quality and concern about its population status. The herring gull was the only species with comprehensive demographic data. Population sizes used in estimating potential take limit varied greatly among the four species, but estimates of intrinsic population growth rate were similar (range 0.118 to 0.197). The annual potential take limits for the four gull species were 7,963 for herring gulls, 2,081 for great black-backed gulls, 15,039 for laughing gulls, and 14,826 for ring-billed gulls. Comparing average annual take from 2012–2019 to our modeled potential take limit, overharvest has not occurred for great black-backed and laughing gulls, occurred once every 8 y for ring-billed gulls, and occurred over half the time for herring gulls.

Annual assessment of American woodcock (Scolopax minor; hereafter, woodcock) populations in North America relies primarily on the American Woodcock Singing-Ground Survey (SGS). Ancillary information concerning harvest and hunting effort comes from the Harvest Information Program (HIP), and indices of recruitment come from Wing Collection Surveys (WCS). We report on long-term trends in SGS, HIP, and WCS data in the Eastern and Central Management Regions in the U.S. Analyses of SGS data indicate there have been significant long-term (1968–2017) declines of 1.05% per year in the Eastern Management Region and -0.56 % per year in the Central Management Region. Discontinuance of some routes and their replacement with new routes may have artificially lessened the long-term negative trends in the SGS. Since 2013, total harvest and number of days hunters spent pursuing woodcock have been below the long-term average (1999–2015) in both management regions. Age ratios (number of immatures per adult female) were temporally variable but exhibited no long-term trend in the Eastern Management Region. In the Central Management Region, age ratios were generally higher during the beginning of the study (1963–1987) period versus the latter part (1988–2016).

Data to inform population assessment of the Interior subspecies of band-tailed pigeon, Patagioenas fasciata fasciata (breeding range from Colorado and Utah south into Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico), have been lacking despite substantial past banding efforts. We used a data set of more than 26,000 bandings from Colorado, with 3,500 live recaptures and 780 recoveries from the harvest of banded individuals to estimate annual survival, fidelity, and harvest rates. Most birds were harvested in Colorado (62%) followed by Mexico (18%); New Mexico (16%); Arizona (3%); and 1% or less each in California, Washington, and Utah. On average, each year 15% (range 0-30%) of surviving band-tailed pigeons did not return to Colorado. From 1969 to 1981 mean annual survival was 0.633 (standard error [SE] = 0.031) for hatch-year and 0.719 (SE = 0.016) for after-hatch-year birds, with a mean annual recovery rate of 0.015 (SE = 0.002) for hatch-year and 0.011 (SE = 0.001) for after-hatch-year birds. From 1970 to 1974, mean annual abundance of band-tailed pigeons in Colorado on 1 September was 59,911-88,290. These data provide a baseline for additional data collection for band-tailed pigeons in the range of the Interior subspecies.

Photos of vegetation cover types on our study area in the central Sierra Nevada, California.

Posterior distribution summaries for detection probabilities in the green frog example.

Management of many North American forests is challenged by the need to balance the potentially competing objectives of reducing risks posed by high-severity wildfires and protecting threatened species. In the Sierra Nevada, California, concern about high-severity fires has increased in recent decades but uncertainty exists over the effects of fuel-reduction treatments on species associated with older forests, such as the California Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). Here, we assessed the effects of forest conditions, fuel reductions, and wildfire on a declining population of Spotted Owls in the central Sierra Nevada using 20 years of demographic data collected at 74 Spotted Owl territories. Adult survival and territory colonization probabilities were relatively high, while territory extinction probability was relatively low, especially in territories that had relatively large amounts of high canopy cover (≥70%) forest. Reproduction was negatively associated with the area of medium-intensity timber harvests characteristic of proposed fuel treatments. Our results also suggested that the amount of edge between older forests and shrub/sapling vegetation and increased habitat heterogeneity may positively influence demographic rates of Spotted Owls. Finally, high-severity fire negatively influenced the probability of territory colonization. Despite correlations between owl demographic rates and several habitat variables, life stage simulation (sensitivity) analyses indicated that the amount of forest with high canopy cover was the primary driver of population growth and equilibrium occupancy at the scale of individual territories. Greater than 90% of medium-intensity harvests converted high-canopy-cover forests into lower-canopy-cover vegetation classes, suggesting that landscape-scale fuel treatments in such stands could have short-term negative impacts on populations of California Spotted Owls. Moreover, high-canopy-cover forests declined by an average of 7.4% across territories during our study, suggesting that habitat loss could have contributed to declines in abundance and territory occupancy. We recommend that managers consider the existing amount and spatial distribution of high-canopy forest before implementing fuel treatments within an owl territory, and that treatments be accompanied by a rigorous monitoring program.

Understanding population dynamics is of great interest in many different contexts. Traditionally, population dynamics have often been considered in terms of individual-based demographic parameters (e.g., abundance, survival, and reproductive rates), estimation of which generally requires information from marked individuals. Alternatively, in some situations, it may be appropriate to consider population dynamics at a landscape level where the focus is shifted from numbers of individuals to the status of the population at places on the landscape. One consequence of doing so is that information from marked individuals is no longer required. Recently developed methods allow the estimation of landscape-level population vital rates in the realistic situation where the current status of the population might be misclassified via field methods (e.g., because of imperfect detection). Here, we consider the case of the California spotted owl ( Strix occidentalis occidentalis ) at the Eldorado study area in central Sierra Nevada, California, USA, where interest is in the occupancy rate of potential nesting territories, and in whether owls in an occupied territory successfully reproduced each year during 1997–2004. We analyzed the data using multistate occupancy models and found no evidence of annual variation in dynamic occupancy probabilities. There was strong evidence of annual variation in successful reproduction, with the pattern of variation being different depending on whether there was successful reproduction in the territory in the previous year. Of the three environmental variables considered, the Southern Oscillation Index appeared to be most important and explained some of the annual variation in reproduction probabilities.

This report summarizes information collected annually in the United States on survival, recruitment, abundance and harvest of mourning doves. We report on trends in the number of doves heard per route from the Mourning Dove Call-count Survey (CCS), doves seen per route from the CCS, birds heard and seen per route from the all-bird Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and provide absolute abundance estimates based on band recovery and harvest data. Harvest and hunter participation are estimated from the Migratory Bird Harvest Information Program (HIP). The CCS-heard data provided evidence that abundance of doves decreased in all three dove management units (Eastern [EMU], Central [CMU], and Western [WMU]) during the long term (1966–2012); within the EMU, however, there is evidence that abundance decreased in hunt states but increased in nonhunt states. In the recent 10 years there was no evidence for a change in mourning dove abundance in the EMU, but there was evidence of a decline in the CMU and WMU. Over the most recent two years there was no evidence for a change in abundance in any of the management units. Over the long term, trends based on CCS-heard and CCS-seen data were consistent in the CMU and WMU, but inconsistent in the EMU; CCS-seen data indicated that abundance increased in the EMU. BBS data provided evidence that the abundance of mourning doves over the long-term increased in the EMU and decreased in the CMU and WMU. Thus, over the long term, the three data sets provided consistent results for the CMU and WMU but not the EMU. Estimates of absolute abundance are available only since 2003 and indicate that there are about 308 million doves in the United States, and abundance during the recent 5 years appears stable in the EMU and WMU, but may be declining in the CMU. Based on a composite trend (weighted trend estimate using information from the CCS, BBS, and absolute abundance), the EMU and WMU populations were stationary over the previous 5 and 10 years whereas the population in the CMU declined. Current (2011) HIP estimates for mourning dove total harvest, active hunters, and total days afield in the U.S. were 16,580,900 ± 452,200 (estimate ± SE) birds, 955,700 hunters, and 3,005,700 ± 92,000 days afield. Harvest and hunter participation at the unit level were: EMU, 6,666,900 ± 256,000 birds, 378,600 hunters, and 1,095,200 ± 41,000 days afield; CMU, 7,657,700 ± 362,000 birds, 427,700 hunters, and 1,444,800 ± 81,000 days afield; and WMU, 2,256,300 ± 89,000 birds, 149,400 hunters, and 465,700 ± 17,000 days afield. The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) is one of the most abundant bird species in urban and rural areas of North America, and is familiar to millions of people. Authority and responsibility for management of this species in the United States is vested in the Secretary of the Interior. This responsibility is conferred by the Migratory Bird Treaty Act of 1918 which, as amended, implements migratory bird treaties between the United States and other countries. Mourning doves are included in the treaties with Great Britain (for Canada) and Mexico (U.S. Department of the Interior 1988). These treaties recognize sport hunting as a legitimate use of a renewable migratory bird resource. Maintenance of dove populations in a healthy, productive state is a primary management goal. Management activities include population assessment, harvest regulation, and habitat management. Each year, counts of mourning doves heard and seen are conducted by state, federal, tribal, and other biologists in the 48 conterminous states to monitor mourning dove populations. In addition, each year thousands of doves are banded and thousands of wings from harvested doves are analyzed to estimate annual survival, harvest rates, recruitment, and abundance. The resulting information is used by wildlife administrators in setting annual hunting regulations. Past federal frameworks for hunting in the United States are in Appendix A.

Double-crested Cormorant (Phalacrocorax auritus) populations have rapidly increased in the Great Lakes and in wintering areas in the southeast USA since the mid-1970s, resulting in conflicts with humans. To increase understanding of their population biology, band-recovery models were used to estimate temporal trends in hatch year (HY), second year (SF), and after second year (ASY) survival of cormorants banded in the Great Lakes from 1979 to 2006. SY and ASY annual survival varied among years with no apparent trend. HY annual survival exhibited a negative log-linear trend. Lack of clear temporal patterns in SF and ASY survival suggested that increases in cormorant abundance subsequent to 1979 did not impact survival in these age-classes, whereas HY annual survival declined as abundance increased. In addition, issuance of depredation orders in 1998 and 2003 appeared to have a small negative effect on HY survival, but no clear effect on SF and ASY annual survival. The percentage of band returns reported from cormorant control operations generally increased over time, and greatly during the depredation orders. Mean +/- SE annual survival from 1979 to 2006 was 0.446 +/- 0.022 for HY, 0.835 +/- 0.026 for SF, and 0.884 +/- 0.020 for ASY individuals. Although increases in cormorant abundance did not appear to be related to increases in annual survival, the relatively high average annual survival rate of ASY cormorants may have been responsible for rapid population growth in the 1980s and 1990s in the Great Lakes. Received 31 October 2007, accepted 7 April 2008.

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. (C) 2011 The Wildlife Society.

ABSTRACT The California spotted owl (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) is the only spotted owl subspecies not listed as threatened or endangered under the United States Endangered Species Act despite petitions to list it as threatened. We conducted a meta‐analysis of population data for 4 populations in the southem Cascades and Sierra Nevada, California, USA, from 1990 to 2005 to assist a listing evaluation by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service. Our study areas (from N to S) were on the Lassen National Forest (LAS), Eldorado National Forest (ELD), Sierra National Forest (SIE), and Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SKC). These study areas represented a broad spectrum of habitat and management conditions in these mountain ranges.We estimated apparent survival probability, reproductive output, and rate of population change for spotted owls on individual study areas and for all study areas combined (meta‐analysis) using model selection or model‐averaging based on maximum‐likelihood estimation. We followed a formal protocol to conduct this analysis that was similar to other spotted owl meta‐analyses. Consistency of field and analytical methods among our studies reduced confounding methodological effects when evaluating results. We used 991 marked spotted owls in the analysis of apparent survival. Apparent survival probability was higher for adult than for subadult owls. There was little difference in apparent survival between male and female owls. Model‐averaged mean estimates of apparent survival probability of adult owls varied from 0.811 ± 0.021 for females at LAS to 0.890 ± 0.016 for males at SKC. Apparent survival increased over time for owls of all age classes at LAS and SIE, for adults at ELD, and for second‐year subadults and adults at SKC. The meta‐analysis of apparent survival, which included only adult owls, confirmed an increasing trend in survival over time. Survival rates were higher for owls on SKC than on the other study areas.We analyzed data from 1,865 observations of reproductive outcomes for female spotted owls. The proportion of subadult females among all territorial females of known age ranged from 0.00 to 0.25 among study areas and years. The proportion of subadults among female spotted owls was negatively related to reproductive output (no. of young fledged/territorial F owl) for ELD and SIE. Eldorado study area and LAS showed an alternate‐year trend in reproductive output, with higher output in even‐numbered years. Mean annual reproductive output was 0.988 ± 0.154 for ELD, 0.624 ± 0.140 for LAS, 0.478 ± 0.106 for SIE, and 0.555 ± 0.110 for SKC. Eldorado Study Area exhibited a declining trend and the greatest variation in reproductive output over time, whereas SIE and SKC, which had the lowest reproductive output, had the lowest temporal variation. Meta‐analysis confirmed that reproductive output varied among study areas. Reproductive output was highest for adults, followed by second‐year subadults, and then by first‐year subadults.We used 842 marked subadult and adult owls to estimate population rate of change. Modeling indicated that Λ t (Λ t is the finite rate of population change estimated using the reparameterized Jolly–Seber estimator [Pradel 1996]) was either stationary (LAS and SIE) or increasing after an initial decrease (ELD and SKC). Mean estimated Λ t for the 4 study areas was 1.007 (95% CI = 0.952–1.066) for ELD; 0.973 (95% CI = 0.946–1.001) for LAS; 0.992 (95% CI = 0.966–1.018) for SIE; and 1.006 (95% CI = 0.947–1.068) for SKC. The best meta‐analysis model of population trend indicated that Λ varied across time but was similar in trend among the study areas. Our estimates of realized population change (Δ t ; Franklin et al. 2004), which we estimated as the product 1 λ3, were based on estimates of Λ t from individual study areas and did not require estimating annual population size for each study area. Trends represented the proportion of the population size in the first year that remained in each subsequent year. Similar to λ4 on which they were based, these λk‐1 showed evidence of decline over the study period for LAS and SIE. The best model indicated recruitment of male and female adult and subadults varied from 0.10 to 0.31 new territorial individuals at time t/number of territorial individuals at time t–1 and similarly among areas. We also conducted a population viability analysis (PVA) based on results of our meta‐analysis. This PVA was of limited utility for ELD and SKC study areas because 95% confidence intervals on the probability of decline or increase spanned the interval [0, 1] within 5–10 years. When we restricted inferences to 7 years, estimated probability of a >10% decline for SIE was 0.41 (95% CI = 0.09–0.78); for LAS the probability was 0.64 (95% CI = 0.27–0.94). In contrast, estimated probability of a >10% increase in 7 years for SIE was 0.23 (95% CI = 0.01–0.55) and for LAS was 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00–0.34). For comparisons, we simulated a PVA for a hypothetical population with mean Λ = 1.0 and the same temporal variation as observed in our owl populations. Our PVA suggested that both the SIE and LAS populations had higher probabilities of declining in a 7‐year period than increasing but that it would be difficult to determine if a population was in a slight gradual decline. Our analysis and the repository of information on our 4 study populations provide a data‐rich template for managers to monitor impacts of future management actions on the owl. Specifically, our data can be used to evaluate the effect of management strategies on spotted owls that are being implemented by the United States Forest Service to reduce the risk of wildfire in the Sierra Nevada ecosystem. Our information also provides baseline information for evaluating the status of the owl for potential listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service.RESUMEN El búho californiano manchado (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) es la única subespecie de búhos manchados que no está listada como amenazada o en peligro de extinción en el Acta de E.E.U.U. para las Especies en Peligro de Extinción a pesar de las peticiones para que sea incluida en la lista como una especie amenazada. Nosotros realizamos un meta‐análisis de los datos de la población de 4 poblaciones del sur de Cascades y de la Sierra Nevada, California desde 1990 hasta 2005 como ayuda a una evaluación de listado hecha por el U.S Fish and Wildlife Service. Nuestras áreas de estudio (de norte a sur) estuvieron localizadas en el Bosque Nacional Lassen (LAS), en el Bosque Nacional Eldorado (ELD), en el Bosque Nacional Sierra (SIE) y en los Parques Nacionales Sequoia y Kings Canyon (SKC). Estas áreas de estudio representaron un amplio espectro del hábitat y de las condiciones de manejo en estas cadenas de montañas.Nosotros calculamos la probabilidad de supervivencia aparente, el volumen de reproducción y el cambio en la tasa de población de los búhos manchados en áreas de estudio individuales y para todas las áreas de estudio combinadas (meta‐análisis) utilizando selección de modelos o promediando modelos basados en la estimación de máxima probabilidad. Seguimos un protocolo formal para realizar este análisis que fuera similar a otros meta‐análisis con búhos manchados. La consistencia del campo y los métodos analíiticos en nuestros estudios redujeron la confusión de efectos metodológicos al evaluar los resultados. Utilizamos 991 búhos manchados marcados en el análisis de supervivencia aparente. La probabilidad de supervivencia aparente fue más alta para búhos adultos que para subadultos. Hubo poca diferencia en la supervivencia aparente entre hembras y machos. Para los modelos promediados, los cálculos de la media de la probabilidad de supervivencia aparente para búhos adultos tuvo una variación de 0.811 ± 0.021 para hembras en LAS a 0.890 ± 0.016 para machos en SKA. La supervivencia aparente aumentó con el tiempo para los búhos de todos los grupos de edad en LAS y SIE, para adultos en ELD, y para subadultos del segundo año y para adultos en SKC. El meta‐análisis de supervivencia aparente, que incluyó únicamente a búhos adultos, confirmó una tendencia al aumento en la supervivencia con el tiempo. Las tasas de supervivencia fueron más altas para los búhos en SKC que en las otras áreas de estudio.Analizamos información de 1.865 observaciones de resultados de reproducciones para búhos manchados hembra. La proporción de hembras subadultas entre todas las hembras territoriales de edad conocida fluctuó de 0.00 a 0.25 a través de las áreas de estudio y de los años. La proporción de subadultos entre los búhos manchados hembra estuvo relacionada negativamente con el volumen de reproducción (número de pichones emplumados por búho hembra territorial) para ELD y SIE. ELD y LAS mostraron una tendencia anual alternada en el volumen de reproducción, con un volumen mayor en los años pares. La media del volumen de reproducción anual fue 0.988 ± 0.154 para ELD, 0.624 ± 0.140 para LAS, 0.478 ± 0.106 para SIE y 0.555 ± 0.154 para SKC. ELD exhibió una tendencia a disminuir y la variación más alta en el volumen de reproducción a través del tiempo; mientras que SIE y SKC, que tuvieron el más bajo volumen de reproducción, tuvieron la menor variación temporal. El meta‐análisis confirmó que el volumen de reproducción varió entre las áreas de estudio. El volumen de reproducción fue más alto para adultos, seguido por subadultos del segundo año, y luego por subadultos del primer año.Nosotros utilizamos 842 búhos marcados, adultos y subadultos, para calcular el índice de cambio de la población. La selección de modelos indicó que Λ t era, o relativamente fija (LAS y SIE) o aumentaba después de una disminución inicial (ELD y SKC). La media calculada Λ t para las cuatro áreas de estudio fue: 1.007 (95% CI = 0.952–1.066) para ELD; 0.973 (95% CI = 0.946–1.001) para LAS; 0.992 (95% CI = 0.966–1.018) para SIE; y 1.006 (95% CI = 0.947–1.068) para SKC. El mejor modelo de meta‐análisis de la tendencia de población indicó que Λ variaba con el tiempo pero que era una tendencia similar entre las áreas de estudio. Nuestros cálculos sobre el cambio de población realizado (Δ t ) se basaron en los cálculos de Λ t de las áreas de estudio individuales y no requirieron calcular el tamaño de la población anual para cada área de estudio. Las tendencias representaron la proporción del tamaño de la población en el primer año que permaneció en cada año subsiguiente. De manera similar a λt, en la que se basaron, éstas Δt mostraron evidencia de disminución durante el período de estudio para LAS y SIE. El mejor modelo de reclutamiento indicado, el reclutamiento de búhos machos y hembras, adultos y subadultos, varió de 0.10 a 0.31 individuos territoriales nuevos al tiempo t por el número de individuos territoriales al tiempo t–1 y de manera similar entre las otras áreas. También realizamos un análisis de viabilidad de población (PVA) basado en los resultados de nuestro meta‐análisis. Este análisis PVA fue de limitada utilidad para las áreas de estudio ELD y SKC porque el 95% de intervalos de confiabilidad en la probabilidad de disminución o aumento extendió el intervalo [0, 1] de 5–10 años. Cuando restringimos las inferencias a 7 años, la probabilidad estimada de a >10% de disminución para SIE fue 0.41 (95% CI = 0.09–0.78); para LAS la probabilidad fue 0.64 (95% CI = 0.27–0.94). En contraste, la probabilidad estimada de un >10% de aumento en 7 años para SIE fue 0.23 (95% CI = 0.01–0.55) y para LAS fue 0.10 (95% CI = 0.00–0.34). Para comparar, simulamos un PVA para una población hipotética con una media Λ = 1.0, y con la misma variación temporal observada en nuestras poblaciones de búhos. Nuestro PVA sugirió que ambas poblaciones SIE y LAS tenían, en un período de 7 años, mayores probabilidades de disminución que de aumento, pero que sería muy difícil determinar si alguna de las poblaciones estaba en una ligera disminución gradual. El depósito de información de nuestras 4 áreas de estudio provee una plantilla rica en información para que los administradores monitoreen los impactos de acciones futuras en el manejo de los búhos (por ejemplo, nuevas estrategias de manejo del Plan de Sierra Nevada Forest). También provee evidencia importante para evaluar el estatus del búho para su potencial inclusión en el listado de especies amenazadas.RÉSUMÉ Le hibou tacheté californien (Strix occidentalis occidentalis) est la seule sous‐espèce de hibou tacheté ne figurant pas sur la liste des animaux menacés ou vulnérables sous la Loi des Espèces en Danger des Etats‐Unis malgré des pétitions pour l'inscrire sur cette liste en tant que sous‐espèce menacée. Nous avons effectué une méta‐analyse des données de population pour 4 populations dans le sud des Cascades et dans la Sierra Nevada, en Californie de 1990 à 2005 pour aider une évaluation de leur statut établie par les Services des Eaux et Forêts des Etats‐Unis. Nos aires d'étude (du nord au sud) étaient dans la forêt nationale Lassen (LAS), la forêt nationale Eldorado (ELD), la forêt nationale Sierra (SIE), et les parcs nationaux Sequoia et Kings Canyon (SKC). Ces aires d'étude représentaient un large échantillon des conditions de l'habitat et de la gestion dans ces chaînes de montagnes.Nous avons estimé la probabilité de survie apparente, le succès de reproduction, et le taux de changement de la population pour les hiboux tachetés dans chaque aire d'étude individuelle et dans toutes les aires réunies (méta–analyse) en utilisant la sélection de modèles ou le calcul de la moyenne des modèles basé sur une estimation du maximum de vraisemblance. Pour effectuer cette analyse nous avons suivi un protocole rigoureux similaire à d'autres méta‐analyses de hiboux tachetés. La cohérence des observations de terrain et des méthodes analytiques entre ces études a réduit les effets méthodologiques confondants lors des évaluations des résultats. Nous avons utilisé 991 hiboux tachetés marqués dans l'analyse de survie apparente. La probabilité de survie apparente a été plus élevée pour les hiboux adultes que pour les sous‐adultes. Il y a eu peu de différence pour ce qui est de la survie apparente entre les hiboux mâles et femelles. La moyenne des estimations de la probabilité de survie apparente des hiboux adultes basée sur la moyenne des modèles a varié entre 0,811 ± 0,021 pour les hiboux femelles à LAS et 0,890 ± 0,016 pour les hiboux mâles à SKC. La survie apparente a augmenté avec le temps pour les hiboux de toutes les classes d'âge à LAS et SIE, pour les adultes à ELD, et pour les sous‐adultes de deux ans et les adultes à SKC. La méta‐analyse de survie apparente, qui comprenait seulement des hiboux adultes, a confirmé une tendance croissante de survie avec le temps. Les taux de survie étaient plus élevés pour les hiboux de SKC que pour ceux des autres aires d'étude.Nous avons analysé les données obtenues à partir de 1 865 observations de succès de reproduction de hiboux tachetées femelles. La proportion des hiboux femelles sous‐adultes parmi toutes les femelles territoriales d'àge connu a varié de 0,00 à 0,25 selon les aires et les années d'étude. La proportion des sousadultes parmi les hiboux tachetés femelles a été négativement corrélée avec le succès de reproduction (nombre de jeunes hiboux par femelle territoriale) pour ELD et SIE. La forêt nationale Eldorado et la forêt nationale Lassen ont montré une tendance à alterner selon un cycle biennal pour ce qui est du succès de reproduction, avec un taux plus élevé pendant les années paires. La moyenne du succès de reproduction annuel était de 0,988 ± 0,154 pour ELD, de 0,624 ± 0,140 pour LAS, de 0,478 ± 0,106 pour SIE, et de 0,555 ± 0,110 pour SKD. La forêt nationale Eldorado a montré une tendance décroissante ainsi que la plus grande variation dans le succès de reproduction avec le temps, alors que SIE et SKC, qui ont eu le succès de reproduction le plus bas, ont connu la variation temporelle la plus basse. La méta‐analyse a confirmé que le succès de reproduction variait selon les aires d'étude. Le succès de reproduction a été le plus élevé pour les adultes, puis pour les sous‐adultes de deux ans, et ensuite pour les sous‐adultes d'un an.Nous avons utilisé 842 hiboux marqués, adultes et sous‐adultes, pour estimer le taux de changement de la population. La modélisation a indiqué que Λ t était soit stationnaire (LAS et SIE), soit croissant après une baisse initiale (ELD et SKC). La moyenne estimée Λ t pour les 4 aires d'étude était: 1,007 (95% IC = 0,952–1,066) pour ELD; 0,973 (95% IC = 0,946–1,001) pour LAS; 0,992 (95% IC = 0,966–1,018) pour SIE; et 1,006 (95% IC = 0,947–1,068) pour SKC. Le meilleur modèle de méta‐analyse pour la tendance de la population a indiqué que Λ variait selon le temps mais suivait la même tendance selon les aires d'étude. Nos estimations du changement de population réalisé (Δ t ) étaient fondées sur les estimations de Λ t des aires d'étude individuelles et n'ont pas nécessité d'estimation de la taille annuelle de la population pour chaque aire d'étude. Les tendances représentaient la proportion de la taille de la population pendant la première année qui s'est maintenue chaque année subséquente. De même que λt sur lesquels ils étaient fondés, ces δt ont apporté des preuves de déclin pendant la période d'étude pour LAS et SIE. Le meilleur modèle a indiqué que le recrutement des hiboux adultes et sous‐adultes mâles et femelles variait de 0,10 à 0,31 nouveaux individus territoriaux à un temps t pour un nombre d'individus territoriaux à un temps t‐1 et qu'il en était de même dans chaque aire. Nous avons également procédé à une analyse de viabilité de la population (AVP) fondée sur les résultats de notre méta‐analyse. Cette AVP a été d'une utilité limitée pour les aires d'étude ELD et SKC parce que les intervalles de confiance de 95% sur la probabilité du déclin ou de la croissance couvraient l'intervalle [0, 1] sur une période de 5 à 10 ans. Lorsque nous avons réduit les inférences à 7 ans, la probabilité estimée d'un déclin >10% pour SIE était de 0,41 (95% IC = 0,09–0,78); pour LAS la probabilité était de 0,64 (95% IC = 0,27–0,94). Al'opposé, la probabilité estimée d'une croissance >10% en 7 ans pour SIE était de 0,23 (95% IC = 0,01–0,55) et pour LAS elle était de 0,10 (95% IC = 0,00–0,34). Afin de comparer, nous avons simulé une AVP pour une population hypothétique ayant une moyenne Λ = 1,0 et la même variation temporelle que celle observée dans nos populations de hiboux. Notre AVP a suggéré que les populations de SIE et de LAS avaient de plus grandes probabilités de déclin que de croissance sur une période de 7 ans, mais qu'il serait difficile de déterminer si une population présentait un léger déclin graduel. La collecte des informations pour nos 4 aires d'étude foumit aux personnes chargées de la gestion un modèle riche de données permettant de suivre l'impact sur les hiboux des actions de gestion à l'avenir (par exemple, les nouvelles stratégies de gestion du Plan pour la Forêt de Sierra Nevada). Cette collecte foumit également des preuves importantes afin d'évaluer le statut du hibou pour une classification potentielle sur la liste des espèces menacées.

A framework for a sampling plan for monitoring marshbird populations in the contiguous 48 states is proposed here. The sampling universe is the breeding habitat (i.e. wetlands) potentially used by marshbirds. Selection protocols would be implemented within each of large geographical strata, such as Bird Conservation Regions. Site selection will be done using a two-stage cluster sample. Primary sampling units (PSUs) would be land areas, such as legal townships, and would be selected by a procedure such as systematic sampling. Secondary sampling units (SSUs) will be wetlands or portions of wetlands in the PSUs. SSUs will be selected by a randomized spatially balanced procedure. For analysis, the use of a variety of methods as a means of increasing confidence in conclusions that may be reached is encouraged. Additional effort will be required to work out details and implement the plan.

Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.

For long-lived iteroparous vertebrates that annually produce few young, life history theory predicts that reproductive output (R) and juvenile survival should influence temporal variation in population growth rate (λ) more than adult survival does. We examined this general prediction using 15 years of mark–recapture data from a population of California spotted owls (Strix occidentalis occidentalis). We found that survival of individuals ≥1 year old (ϕ) exhibited much less temporal variability \({\left( {\widehat{{{\text{CV}}}} = 0.04} \right)} \) , where CV is coefficient of variation, than R \( {\left( {\widehat{{\text {CV}}} = 0.83} \right)}, \) and that R was strongly influenced by environmental stochasticity. Although λ was most sensitive (\( \hat{e} \); log-transformed sensitivity) to ϕ \( {\left( {\hat{e} = 0.77} \right)}, \) and much less sensitive to either R \( {\left( {\hat{e} = 0.12} \right)} \) or juvenile survival (survival rate of owls from fledging to 1 year old; \( \hat{e} = 0.12 \)), we estimated that R contributed as much as ϕ to the observed annual variability in λ. The contribution of juvenile survival to variability in λ was proportional to its \( \hat{e}. \) These results are consistent with the hypothesis that natural selection may have favored the evolution of longevity in spotted owls as a strategy to increase the probability of experiencing favorable years for reproduction. Our finding that annual weather patterns that most affected R (temperature and precipitation during incubation) and ϕ (conditions during winter related to the Southern Oscillation Index) were equally good at explaining temporal variability in λ supports the conclusion that R and ϕ were equally responsible for variability in λ. Although currently accepted conservation measures for spotted owl populations attempt to enhance survival, our results indicated that conservation measures that target R may be as successful, as long as actions do not reduce ϕ.