Summary Unravelling the ecological structure of emerging plant pathogens persisting in multi‐host systems is challenging. In such systems, observations are often heterogeneous with respect to time, space and host species, and may lead to biases of perception. The biased perception of pathogen ecology may be exacerbated by hidden fractions of the whole host population, which may act as infection reservoirs. We designed a mechanistic‐statistical approach to help understand the ecology of emerging pathogens by filtering out some biases of perception. This approach, based on SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Removed) models and a Bayesian framework, disentangles epidemiological and observational processes underlying temporal counting data. We applied our approach to French surveillance data on Xylella fastidiosa, a multi‐host pathogenic bacterium recently discovered in Corsica, France. A model selection led to two diverging scenarios: one scenario without a hidden compartment and an introduction around 2001, and the other with a hidden compartment and an introduction around 1985. Thus, Xylella fastidiosa was probably introduced into Corsica much earlier than its discovery, and its control could be arduous under the hidden compartment scenario. From a methodological perspective, our approach provides insights into the dynamics of emerging plant pathogens and, in particular, the potential existence of infection reservoirs.
Reports of honey bee population decline has spurred many national efforts to understand the extent of the problem and to identify causative or associated factors. However, our collective understanding of the factors has been hampered by a lack of joined up trans-national effort. Moreover, the impacts of beekeeper knowledge and beekeeping management practices have often been overlooked, despite honey bees being a managed pollinator. Here, we established a standardised active monitoring network for 5 798 apiaries over two consecutive years to quantify honey bee colony mortality across 17 European countries. Our data demonstrate that overwinter losses ranged between 2% and 32%, and that high summer losses were likely to follow high winter losses. Multivariate Poisson regression models revealed that hobbyist beekeepers with small apiaries and little experience in beekeeping had double the winter mortality rate when compared to professional beekeepers. Furthermore, honey bees kept by professional beekeepers never showed signs of disease, unlike apiaries from hobbyist beekeepers that had symptoms of bacterial infection and heavy Varroa infestation. Our data highlight beekeeper background and apicultural practices as major drivers of honey bee colony losses. The benefits of conducting trans-national monitoring schemes and improving beekeeper training are discussed.
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