研究山东内陆地区2008年以来1级以上小震的月相调制效应,并结合地震b值变化进行分析.结果表明,2020-02-18长清M4.1地震前该区存在低b值、高调制比异常,计算综合节面解P轴方位偏转发现,其与小震b值的低值变化时段非常一致.研究区6次4级以上地震前,有4次出现异常,调制比≥0.33;而2011年和2016年2次范县地震前未出现异常,可能与范县小震集中区受采油作用影响有关.

对于2014—2016年山东区域地震前兆观测台网数据跟踪事件记录,分类梳理6类典型事件,总结问题并提出建议.结果表明:数据跟踪分析可为地震预测研究提供更直接有效的产品,可直观反映地震前兆台网的监测效能和制约因素,有利于进一步探索地震监测与预测研究相结合的工作模式.

In this paper, the proceeding situation of data tracking and analysis of earthquake precursor networks in Shandong, work quality, the problems and measures to improve the quality of work are introduced. Through the data tracking and analysis work going deeply, we can have a more intuitive understanding the factors that restricted the operation of the network, better understanding the effectiveness of our province's precursor monitoring, and improve the level of data analysis and application services.

By analyzing the China and vicinity earthquake activity characteristics of that earthquake since 1900 in the presence of 7—24 years of quiet period and 7—11 years active period, and analyze NepalM 8.1 earthquake on the China mainland earthquake trends inlfuence, noting: 2015 Nepal M 8.1 earthquake may indicate the beginning of the sixth active period for China and vicinity.

It is dififcult to determine the well aquifer system stress state changes using the original curve of water level recorded before earthquakes at Lu No.32 well. We adopted iftting model similar to the Nakai to calculate loading and unloading response ratio (LURR) of water level. The results show that, LURR increases anomalously beforeML≥3.9 earthquake in Jiaodong Peninsula. Though the comparative analysis of Lu No.32 well water temperature and seismic activity parameter, It is found that, within a range of 200 km ofML≥3.9 earthquake, the magnitude and frequency of changes in water temperature before the earthquake is signiifcantly higher.

近日，苏州市政府发布了《苏州市新型城镇化与城乡发展一体化规划（2014-2020）》。规划阐明了苏州未来推进新型城镇化和城乡一体化发展“1450”的空间形态和建设城乡一体的新型社会总体目标、重点任务与发展路径，提出城乡一体化改革的主要方向和关键举措，是引领苏州新型城镇化和城乡一体化发展的基础性规划。

As an effective focal mechanism inversion method for regional earthquakes, CAP (Cut and Paste) is widely used in China in recent years. Its quality and error level need to be evaluated for such solutions are increasingly retrieved. On the other hand, when using the CAP method, those phases which fitted well are usually chosen for inversion, and the other phases which are thought 'bad' or fitted not so good are ignored. It has been found that different station combinations will lead to varied results with unneglectable discrepancies. Objectively speaking, in a scientific perspective, this artificially selected process will increase uncertainties in final inversion results, especially under the present instrument status in China. Furthermore, because the grid search scheme used in the CAP method which is not evenly distributed on focal sphere, we can not give a convincing proof to illustrate that whether the cause of badly-fitted waveforms comes from data error or from un-sufficient searched solutions.Two earthquakes of M4. 6 and M4. 3 occurred in Shandong Peninsula on 23 November 2013 and 7 January 2014, respectively. The former is the largest event in the Shandong area since 1995. For convenience, we label the former event as the Laizhou earthquake, and the latter as the Rushan earthquake, according to their epicenters. Taking these two events for example, this paper discusses error estimation for focal mechanism inversion using the CAP method. The paper also presents an uncertainty analysis process for the inversion results.Briefly, a bootstrap technique is adopted, waveforms are randomly sampled with equal probability from origin dataset, and then used as data for a repeating inversion procedure. After a large number of inversions, e. g., 1000 times, we finally get bootstrap results consisting of 1000 focal mechanisms.Based on these focal mechanisms, we conduct the following work.(1) We employ a PSO (particle swarm optimization) algorithm to search a solution, of which the Kagan angle is minimal to all the double couple models, and use its standard deviation as the inversion results uncertainty range. The uncertainty of solutions for the Laizhou event is +/- 23. 7 degrees; for Rushan event, is +/- 6. 4 degrees. These two solutions can be evaluated as 'A' level according to the Hardebeck's indicator of mechanisms quality.(2) A clustering analysis is used for bootstrap results. For the Rushan event, the clustering center is coincident to the PSO optimized solution; for the Laizhou event, several centers are found in clustering, despite isolate solutions. There are two clustering centers, of which the corresponding data proportion is about 98. 7 percent.(3) Projecting P and T axes of bootstrap results onto a focal sphere, calculating its probability density, we get the probability density distribution of focal mechanisms on the focal sphere. Then we can give the confidence interval on different levels for mechanism solutions.The method demonstrated in this paper is not confined to achieving more accurate focal mechanism and obtaining rational inversion error, while it can also be used to exclude isolate and incorrect solutions effectively, and avoid the effect of data from stations with larger disturbances. Therefore, this method can be used to invert focal mechanisms automatically immediately after moderate earthquakes occur. Sustaining by powerful computational capabilities, we can get more accurate and reliable focal mechanism results without manual work.

随着“中国数字地震观测网络”项目的完成，山东省基本形成了涵盖地震前兆观测台站、省前兆台网中心的前兆网络观测体系。在网络环境和各种软、硬件设备都已经具备的基础上，充分利用现有的软、硬件系统，将前兆观测网络产出的数据以及其他相关信息，以一种较简捷的方式提供给各类用户使用，是研发《山东省地震前兆管理软件》的根本目的。

In this paper using inversion technique about combined travel-time of seismic waves on the data recorded by Shandong regional seismic station network,and the actual situation of geo-logical structures in Shandong Province,tomography research in the area is discussed.The work has shown that:the velocity distribution at different depths reflects the deep structure in Shandong.It provides some important information for further research of active tectonics and the basis of scientific calculation of earthquake parameter.The relationship between the strength of crustal structure and the shows again that the strong earthquake occurred near the transition zone of highter and lowerthe velocity units,indicating that the gestation of strong earthquake is relate to the medium heterogeneity of source region.

引入Zaliapin等发展的基于最邻近事件距离算法的丛集地震识别方法,首先使用不同类型的数据对方法进行检验,然后对胶东半岛和沂沭带的区域小震活动进行分析.结果表明,1996年以来沂沭带的小震活动近似满足泊松随机过程,主要是背景地震活动;而胶东半岛地区小震则存在明显的成丛活动.最后将该方法应用到1976年唐山Ms7.8地震序列,通过序列发展不同时段的对比分析,结果表明,随着时间的推移,唐山地震序列中受此前发生的主震和较大余震影响作用的事件越来越少,序列的丛集性明显减弱,更多的小震或许可视为反映区域应力状态的背景地震.

Basic facts about Shandong Regional Seismic Precursor Network are introduced,including its technical system and operation monitoring of observation instruments as well as data quality monitoring.Based on the actual situation of the network,experiences on operation and maintenance of the technical system and equipments are summarized.Furthermore,some suggestions to solve the existing problems are proposed.

Using full waveforms recorded in regional stations(epicentral distance 1°~5°),this paper retrieved the moment tensors for 3 mid-strong earthquakes in U.S.,i.e.November 6,2011 Ms 5.6 Oklahoma earthquake,August 23,2011 Ms 5.5 Colorado earthquake,and August 23,2011 Ms 5.8 Virginia earthquake.We compared our solutions with those given by USGS from other different methods.The result showed that these solutions have good consistency with each other,and implied reliability and robustness of our method.We adopt particle swarm optimization algorithm in non-linear inversion process,therefore,we can get a fairly accurate solution in shorter time.The method discussed in this paper is adequate and can be used for earthquake countermeasures after midstrong shocks.

对苏、鲁、皖、豫交界地区地震活动进行研究,指出该区2006年10月-2010年10月出现一个长轴约230 km的3级地震空区.该空区及附近地区存在多项中期异常,即ML≥3地震活动具有频度高、能量强,中等地震震中空间分布相对集中及低b值等.讨论认为,苏、鲁、皖、豫交界地区存在多项中期异常,与2004年10月24日太康4.7级地震的强度不匹配,未来具有发生中强以上地震的危险.

In this paper,the wave velocity ratio in the Puyang and its surrounding area(35.1°～36.0°N,115.1°～115.7°E) is calculated and tested with T-test. The results show that the Vp/Vs ratio of this area calculated on basis of 41 ML≥2.6 earthquakes is normal in the period of 2001-2008.The focal depth of ML≥3 earthquakes occurred in Heze-Puyang and its surrounding area(35.1°～36.0°N,115.1°～115.7°E) from 1970 to 2008 is analyzed.The result indicates that focal depth(average of 19km) of the earthquakes occurred before Heze 1983 Ms5.9 earthquake are deeper than that(average of 13 km) of earthquakes occurred after the Heze 1983 Ms5.9 earthquake.

On the assumption that current state of earthquake activities in North China will go on,based on Benioff strain released series of different tectonic belts since 1970,many types of non-linear functions have been adopted to fit the strain cumulative release trend.By the proximal and optimal fitting model,the author gives the forecasts of Benioff strain release in the coming 1 to 3 years.According to the linear magnitude frequency law,the author also gives estimation of corresponding max magnitude for each tectonic belt.

Using travel-time equation of direct wave,the average velocity of direct P-wave and direct S-wave(ν-p-=6.13 km/s,ν-s-=3.52 km/s) in Juxian-Tancheng area are calculated based on 23 Multiple screened earthquakes and 130 sets of high-precision seismic parameters.Then,the crustal thickness(HP11,HS11) of the study area are calculated using the reflection P-wave,reflection S-wave.The results indicate that the average crustal thickness in Junan-Tancheng area is about 34.8 km.

<正>将一定范围内的地震活动视为随机时间序列,则可以用线性回归的方法对未来的地震活动情况进行预测(Vere-Jones,1995)。在地震活动的研究中常采用自回归模型。

The thunder calamities usually happened on outer components such as antenna,power line,pilot wire and etc.,or entered into equipment inside through interrelated circuit and envelope induction.The typical fault was the damages from antenna,aerial line,and equipment components.With the wide applications of computers and communication equipments in seismic station,the harm from the thunder calamities had become much more fearful.The thunder calamities can be prevented or mitigated,only adopted the rational precautionary measures.

Through analysis on the seismicity before Reichang Ms5.7earthquake occurred on Nov.26,2005 we found,some medium earthquake belts appeared in the region before the event,and some abnormal images,such as earthquake gap,were also showed.Some precursory anomalies are identified,such as medium earthquakes crowding,low b value and strain release accelerating.

在成野的"风云草场",这只梅花鹿先是慢步踱到泥塘边,一咕噜躺进池里,把一身漂亮的外衣使劲往泥里裹。全身涂满稀泥后,它站起来大摇大摆地走到路边炫耀,还得意地围着一只漂亮母鹿,一边转圈,一边用身子不停地往对方身上蹭,似乎在显示自己的"阳刚之美"。奇怪的是,一向很爱干净的母鹿居然不嫌弃它满身的泥,同它玩起了"捉迷藏"。嬉戏打闹一