Technological advances in genotyping have given rise to hypothesis-based association studies of increasing scope. As a result, the scientific hypotheses addressed by these studies have become more complex and more difficult to address using existing analytic methodologies. Obstacles to analysis include inference in the face of multiple comparisons, complications arising from correlations among the SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms), choice of their genetic parametrization and missing data. In this paper we present an efficient Bayesian model search strategy that searches over the space of genetic markers and their genetic parametrization. The resulting method for Multilevel Inference of SNP Associations, MISA, allows computation of multilevel posterior probabilities and Bayes factors at the global, gene and SNP level, with the prior distribution on SNP inclusion in the model providing an intrinsic multiplicity correction. We use simulated data sets to characterize MISA's statistical power, and show that MISA has higher power to detect association than standard procedures. Using data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), MISA identifies variants that were not identified by standard methods and have been externally "validated" in independent studies. We examine sensitivity of the NCOCS results to prior choice and method for imputing missing data. MISA is available in an R package on CRAN.

Background: We analyzed the association between 53 genes related to DNA repair and p53-mediated damage response and serous ovarian cancer risk using case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), a population-based, case-control study.Methods/Principal Findings: The analysis was restricted to 364 invasive serous ovarian cancer cases and 761 controls of white, non-Hispanic race. Statistical analysis was two staged: a screen using marginal Bayes factors (BFs) for 484 SNPs and a modeling stage in which we calculated multivariate adjusted posterior probabilities of association for 77 SNPs that passed the screen. These probabilities were conditional on subject age at diagnosis/interview, batch, a DNA quality metric and genotypes of other SNPs and allowed for uncertainty in the genetic parameterizations of the SNPs and number of associated SNPs. Six SNPs had Bayes factors greater than 10 in favor of an association with invasive serous ovarian cancer. These included rs5762746 (median OR(odds ratio)(per allele) = 0.66; 95% credible interval (CI) = 0.44-1.00) and rs6005835 (median ORper (allele) = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.53-0.91) in CHEK2, rs2078486 (median ORper allele = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.21-2.25) and rs12951053 (median ORper allele = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.20-2.26) in TP53, rs411697 (median ORrare homozygote = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35-0.79) in BACH1 and rs10131 (median ORrare homozygote = not estimable) in LIG4. The six most highly associated SNPs are either predicted to be functionally significant or are in LD with such a variant. The variants in TP53 were confirmed to be associated in a large follow-up study.Conclusions/Significance: Based on our findings, further follow-up of the DNA repair and response pathways in a larger dataset is warranted to confirm these results.

Genetic epidemiology is increasingly focused on complex diseases involving multiple genes and environmental factors, often interacting in complex ways. Although standard frequentist methods still have a role in hypothesis generation and testing for discovery of novel main effects and interactions, Bayesian methods are particularly well suited to modeling the relationships in an integrated "systems biology" manner. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the principles of Bayesian analysis and their advantages in this context and describe various approaches to applying them for both model building and discovery in a genome-wide setting. In particular, we highlight the ability of Bayesian methods to construct complex probability models via a hierarchical structure and to account for uncertainty in model specification by averaging over large spaces of alternative models.

Over 22,000 cases of ovarian cancer were diagnosed in 2007 in the United States, but only a fraction of them can be attributed to mutations in highly penetrant genes such as BRCA1. To determine whether low-penetrance genetic variants contribute to ovarian cancer risk, we genotyped 1,536 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) in several candidate gene pathways in 848 epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 798 controls in the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCO) using a customized Illumina array. The inflammation gene interleukin-18 (IL18) showed the strongest evidence for association with epithelial ovarian cancer in a gene-by-gene analysis (P = 0.002) with a <25% chance of being a false-positive finding (q value = 0.240). Using a multivariate model search algorithm over 11 IL18 tagging SNPs, we found that the association was best modeled by rs1834481. Further, this SNP uniquely tagged a significantly associated IL18 haplotype and there was an increased risk of epithelial ovarian cancer per rs1834481 allele (odds ratio, 1.24; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.45). In a replication stage, 12 independent studies from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (OCAC) genotyped rs1834481 in an additional 5,877 cases and 7,791 controls. The fixed effects estimate per rs1834481 allele was null (odds ratio, 0.99; 95% confidence interval, 0.94-1.05) when data from the 12 OCAC studies were combined. The effect estimate remained unchanged with the addition of the initial North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study data. This analysis shows the importance of consortia, like the OCAC, in either confirming or refuting the validity of putative findings in studies with smaller sample sizes. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2008;17(12):3567-72).