INTRODUCTION:Late-onset multiple sclerosis (LOMS) now comprises over 10% of MS diagnoses in contemporary cohorts. The effectiveness of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in LOMS is unclear. We aimed to establish the comparative effectiveness of moderate-high-efficacy versus low-efficacy DMTs in LOMS. METHODS:Using data from the MSBase registry, this multicentre cohort study included people with MS with symptom onset after age 50. Covariates were balanced using inverse-probability-treatment-weighting (IPTW). Primary outcomes were time to first relapse and annualised relapse rate (ARR). Secondary outcomes were 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP), confirmed disability improvement (CDI), relapse-associated worsening (RAW) and progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA). RESULTS:Of 1032 participants, 472 received moderate-high-efficacy DMTs and 560 received low-efficacy DMTs. IPTW-weighted ARR was 0.06 for moderate-high-efficacy and 0.09 for low-efficacy DMTs, corresponding to an ARR ratio of 0.68 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.93, p=0.01). HR for time to first relapse was 0.66 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.91, p=0.01) in favour of moderate-high-efficacy DMTs.Among 856 participants with adequate follow-up, 37% experienced CDP over a median of 4.43 years, with most events (83.6%) attributable to PIRA. The HR for time to CDP was 0.78 (p=0.08) and RAW was 0.69 (p=0.31) in favour of moderate-high-efficacy DMTs, though neither reached statistical significance. There was no difference in CDI or PIRA. CONCLUSION:Moderate-high-efficacy DMTs reduced relapse risk in LOMS. Relapse activity was low. CDP was common and driven by PIRA. Although the CDP and RAW results did not reach statistical significance, the overall findings support the initial use of moderate-high-efficacy DMTs in LOMS.

Background: Monitoring of cognition in multiple sclerosis (MS) is critical. Traditional cognitive testing is resource intensive and insensitive to subtle changes. Digital tests could address this need; however, their long-term usability remains unexplored. Objectives: To determine the long-term acceptability and feasibility of digital cognitive measures in MS. Methods: Participants with relapsing or secondary progressive MS were prospectively enrolled. MSReactor, a web-based test evaluating processing speed, attention and working memory, was performed 6-monthly for up to 36 months. Patient acceptability, anxiety, depression and quality of life were collected concurrently. Correlations between test acceptability, psychosocial measures, physical disability and cognition were analysed using Spearman’s correlation. Results: This study included participants with complete data at 12 ( n = 601), 24 ( n = 280) and 36 ( n = 317) months. Attrition after 12 months was low (3.5%). Acceptability of MSReactor was high, although interest and enjoyment decreased slightly. Minor correlations were observed between reduced acceptability and increased anxiety, depression and disability and lower quality of life. Conclusion: Long-term cognitive monitoring was highly acceptable. We identified characteristics, such as increased anxiety, that were associated with reduced acceptability. Patients with these characteristics may benefit from support to maintain monitoring. These findings underscore the potential for integrating such tools into MS care.

ABSTRACT Background Cognitive impairment is one of the most common and debilitating symptoms of relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). Digital cognitive biomarkers require less time and resources and are rapidly gaining popularity in clinical settings. We examined the longitudinal trajectory of the iPad‐based Processing Speed Test (PST) and predictors of PST scores. Methods We prospectively enrolled RRMS patients between 2017 and 2021 across six Australian MS centres. Longitudinal data was analysed with mixed effect modelling and latent class mixed models. We then examined whether latent class group membership predicted confirmed decrease in correct PST responses. Results We recruited a total of 1093 participants, of which 724 had complete baseline data with a median follow up duration of 2 years. At a population level, PST trajectory was stable. A small practice effect was present up to the 4th visit. Age, baseline disability, T2 lesion volume, male sex and depression were associated with lower correct PST responses, whilst years of education and full/part‐time employment were associated with more correct PST responses. We identified four latent class trajectories of PST. The worst latent class was typified by low baseline PST and lack of a practice effect. Being in the worst latent class was associated with a greater hazard of time to sustained 5% decrease in PST (HR 2.84, 95% CI 1.16–6.94, p = 0.02). Conclusion Worse baseline cognitive performance and lack of a practice effect predicted future cognitive decline in RRMS.

Survival analysis holds a crucial role across diverse disciplines, such as economics, engineering and healthcare. It empowers researchers to analyze both time-invariant and time-varying data, encompassing phenomena like customer churn, material degradation and various medical outcomes. Given the complexity and heterogeneity of such data, recent endeavors have demonstrated successful integration of deep learning methodologies to address limitations in conventional statistical approaches. However, current methods typically involve cluttered probability distribution function (PDF), have lower sensitivity in censoring prediction, only model static datasets, or only rely on recurrent neural networks for dynamic modelling. In this paper, we propose a novel survival regression method capable of producing high-quality unimodal PDFs without any prior distribution assumption, by optimizing novel Margin-Mean-Variance loss and leveraging the flexibility of Transformer to handle both temporal and non-temporal data, coined UniSurv. Extensive experiments on several datasets demonstrate that UniSurv places a significantly higher emphasis on censoring compared to other methods.

BACKGROUND:Upper limb dysfunction is a common debilitating feature of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). We aimed to examine the longitudinal trajectory of the iPad®-based Manual Dexterity Test (MDT) and predictors of change over time. METHODS:We prospectively enrolled RRMS patients (limited to Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) < 4). Longitudinal data was analysed using mixed-effect modelling and latent class mixed models. We then examined whether group membership in latent classes predicted confirmed slowing in MDT. RESULTS:Seven hundred and twenty-one participants had complete data for analysis. At a population level, MDT remained stable over time. No practice effect was seen. Baseline disability and T2 lesion volume were the strongest predictors of longitudinal MDT performance. We identified two latent class trajectories of MDT. The slower latent class was typified by greater variability and a weak association with confirmed worsening of MDT and EDSS. When compared to trajectory analysis stratified by baseline MDT, latent class analysis (LCA) was able to identify those at greater risk of confirmed slowing, signifying the importance of latent processes in upper limb function in pwMS. CONCLUSION:In this cohort of mild to moderate RRMS, MDT scores remained stable over time with no evidence of a practice effect at a population level. Trajectory analysis based on LCA identified a cohort with greater variability and risk of disability progression and domain specific worsening. Our findings demonstrate the importance of latent processes in determining upper limb function in pwMS.

Vitamin D deficiency is a risk factor for developing multiple sclerosis. The PrevANZ trial was conducted to determine if vitamin D3 supplementation can prevent recurrent disease activity in people with a first demyelinating event. As a sub-study of this trial, we investigated the effect of supplementation on peripheral immune cell gene expression. Participants were randomized to 1000, 5000 or 10,000 international units daily of vitamin D3 or placebo. Peripheral blood was collected at baseline and 12 weeks and sent for ribonucleic acid sequencing. Datasets from 55 participants were included. Gene expression was modulated by high dose supplementation. Antigen presentation and viral response pathways were upregulated. Oxidative phosphorylation and immune signaling pathways, including tumor necrosis factor-alpha and interleukin-17 signaling, were downregulated. Overall, vitamin D3 supplementation for 12 weeks modulated the peripheral immune cell transcriptome with induction of anti-inflammatory gene expression profiles. Our results support a dose-dependent effect of vitamin D3 supplementation on immune gene expression.

Background: The relationship between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection and multiple sclerosis (MS) relapse and disease progression remains unclear. Previous studies are limited by small sample sizes and most lack a propensity-matched control cohort. Objective: To evaluate the effect of COVID-19 infection on MS disease course with a large propensity-matched cohort. Design: This multi-centre cohort study analysed relapse and disability outcomes post-COVID-19 infection after balancing covariates using a propensity score matching method. The study period was from the 11th of September 2019 to the 16th of February 2023. The mean follow-up period was 1.7 years. Methods: Data were retrieved from the MSBase Registry. Propensity scores were obtained based on age, sex, disease duration, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), MS course, relapses pre-baseline, disease-modifying therapy (DMT) class and country. Primary outcomes were time to first relapse, annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to confirm EDSS progression. Secondary outcomes were time to EDSS of 3, 4 or 6. Sensitivity analyses with baseline DMT classes were performed. Results: The study included 2253 cases and 6441 controls. After matching, there were 2161 cases and an equal number of matched controls. Cases had a significantly higher ARR (ARR = 0.10 [95% CI 0.09–0.11]) compared to controls (ARR = 0.07 [95% CI 0.06–0.08]). Cases had a significantly greater hazard of time to first relapse compared to controls (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.54 [95% CI 1.29–1.84]). There was no association between COVID-19 infection and 24-week EDSS progression (HR = 1.18 [95% CI 0.92–1.52]), or time to EDSS of 3, 4 or 6. For patients on interferons and glatiramer acetate (BRACE), COVID-19 infection was associated with a greater hazard of time to first relapse (HR = 1.83 [95% CI 1.25–2.68]) and greater hazard of time to EDSS of 3 (HR = 2.04 [95% CI 1.06–3.90]) compared to patients on BRACE therapy without COVID-19 infection. Conclusion: COVID-19 infection was associated with a significantly increased MS relapse rate and a shorter time to first relapse. There was no effect on confirmed EDSS progression over the short term. These results support ongoing COVID-19 risk minimisation strategies to protect patients with MS.

BackgroundOngoing controversy exists regarding optimal management of disease modifying therapy (DMT) in older people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). There is concern that the lower relapse rate, combined with a higher risk of DMT-related infections and side effects, may alter the risk-benefit balance in older pwMS. Given the lack of pwMS above age 60 in randomised controlled trials, the comparative efficacy of high-efficacy DMTs such as ocrelizumab has not been shown in older pwMS. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of ocrelizumab, a high-efficacy DMT, versus interferon/glatiramer acetate (IFN/GA) in pwMS over the age of 60.MethodsUsing data from MSBase registry, this multicentre cohort study included pwMS above 60 who switched to or started on ocrelizumab or IFN/GA. We analysed relapse and disability outcomes after balancing covariates using an inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) method. Propensity scores were obtained based on age, country, disease duration, sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale, prior relapses (all-time, 12 months and 24 months) and prior DMT exposure (overall number and high-efficacy DMTs). After weighting, all covariates were balanced. Primary outcomes were time to first relapse and annualised relapse rate (ARR). Secondary outcomes were 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP) and confirmed disability improvement (CDI).ResultsA total of 248 participants received ocrelizumab, while 427 received IFN/GA. The IPTW-weighted ARR for ocrelizumab was 0.01 and 0.08 for IFN/GA. The IPTW-weighted ARR ratio was 0.15 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.33, p<0.001) for ocrelizumab compared with IFN/GA. On IPTW-weighted Cox regression models, HR for time to first relapse was 0.13 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.26, p<0.001). The hazard of first relapse was significantly reduced in ocrelizumab users after 5 months compared with IFN/GA users. However, the two groups did not differ in CDP or CDI over 3.57 years.ConclusionIn older pwMS, ocrelizumab effectively reduced relapses compared with IFN/GA. Overall relapse activity was low. This study adds valuable real-world data for informed DMT decision making with older pwMS. Our study also confirms that there is a treatment benefit in older people with MS, given the existence of a clear differential treatment effect between ocrelizumab and IFN/GA in the over 60 age group.

Vitamin D deficiency is a risk factor for developing multiple sclerosis (MS). However, the immune effects of vitamin D in people with MS are not well understood. We analyzed transcriptomic datasets generated by RNA sequencing of immune cell subsets (CD4+, CD8+ T cells, B cells, monocytes) from 33 healthy controls and 33 untreated MS cases. We utilized a traditional bioinformatic pipeline and weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) to determine genes and pathways correlated with endogenous vitamin D. In controls, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells had 1079 and 1188 genes, respectively, whose expressions were correlated with plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D level (P < 0.05). Functional enrichment analysis identified association with TNF-alpha and MAPK signaling. In CD4+ T cells of controls, vitamin D level was associated with expression levels of several genes proximal to multiple sclerosis risk loci (P = 0.01). Genes differentially associated with endogenous vitamin D by case–control status were enriched in TNF-alpha signaling via NF-κB. WGCNA suggested a blunted response to vitamin D in cases relative to controls. Collectively, our findings provide further evidence for the immune effects of vitamin D, and demonstrate a differential immune response to vitamin D in cases relative to controls, highlighting a possible mechanism contributing to MS pathophysiology.