Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.

Developing quantitative models of substrate specificity for RNA processing enzymes is a key step toward understanding their biology and guiding applications in biotechnology and biomedicine. Optimally, models to predict relative rate constants for alternative substrates should integrate an understanding of structures of the enzyme bound to " fast " and " slow " substrates, large datasets of rate constants for alternative substrates, and transcriptomic data identifying in vivo processing sites. Such data are either available or emerging for bacterial ribonucleoprotein RNase P a widespread and essential tRNA 50 processing endonuclease, thus making it a valuable model system for investigating principles of biological specificity. Indeed, the well-established structure and kinetics of bacterial RNase P enabled the development of high throughput measurements of rate constants for tRNA variants and provided the necessary framework for quantitative specificity modeling. Several studies document the importance of conformational changes in the precursor tRNA substrate as well as the RNA and protein subunits of bacterial RNase P during binding, although the functional roles and dynamics are still being resolved. Recently, results from cryo-EM studies of E. coli RNase P with alternative precursor tRNAs are revealing prospective mechanistic relationships between conformational changes and substrate specificity. Yet, extensive uncharted territory remains, including leveraging these advances for drug discovery, achieving a complete accounting of RNase P substrates, and understanding how the cellular context contributes to RNA processing specificity in vivo.

Understanding the responses of seabirds to climate-induced variations in phenology and abundance of their prey is key to developing ecosystem-based fisheries management measures that benefit higher trophic levels. The match/mismatch hypothesis (MMH) emphasizes the need to consider synchrony in the seasonal cycles of predators and prey, while the match/mismatch/abundance hypothesis (MMAH) proposes that prey abundance may reinforce/compensate mismatch effects. This study considers the effects of both variations in seasonal availability and abundance of lesser sandeel Ammodytes marinus on hatching, fledging and breeding success of 5 seabird species: black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla , Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica , razorbill Alca torda , common guillemot Uria aalge and European shag Gulosus aristotelis . Consistent with MMH, temporal asynchrony between sandeel availability and seabird breeding schedules affected productivity in 4 species. The effects of trophic asynchrony were either reinforced or compensated by sandeel abundance for some species, supporting MMAH. Breeding success in the late-breeding kittiwake was high when conditions favoured both high sandeel abundance and temporal synchrony while the cost of asynchrony could be compensated by high sandeel abundance in the earlier-breeding puffin. Differential effects of sandeel abundance and trophic synchrony at different stages of the seabird breeding season suggest that distinct mechanisms are involved. The effects were most evident in the most sandeel-reliant seabirds. As further disruption of sandeel phenology and abundance is anticipated under the current climate crisis, the present study is an important step towards understanding bottom-up effects of environmental change on higher trophic levels.

Drones are an increasingly popular choice for wildlife surveys due to their versatility, quick response capabilities, and ability to access remote areas while covering large regions. A novel application presented here is to combine drone imagery with neural networks to assess mortality within a bird colony. Since 2021, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has caused significant bird mortality in the UK, mainly affecting aquatic bird species. The world’s largest northern gannet colony on Scotland’s Bass Rock experienced substantial losses in 2022 due to the outbreak. To assess the impact, RGB imagery of Bass Rock was acquired in both 2022 and 2023 by deploying a drone over the island for the first time. A deep learning neural network was subsequently applied to the data to automatically detect and count live and dead gannets, providing population estimates for both years. The model was trained on the 2022 dataset and achieved a mean average precision (mAP) of 37%. Application of the model predicted 18,220 live and 3761 dead gannets for 2022, consistent with NatureScot’s manual count of 21,277 live and 5035 dead gannets. For 2023, the model predicted 48,455 live and 43 dead gannets, and the manual count carried out by the Scottish Seabird Centre and UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (UKCEH) of the same area gave 51,428 live and 23 dead gannets. This marks a promising start to the colony’s recovery with a population increase of 166% determined by the model. The results presented here are the first known application of deep learning to detect dead birds from drone imagery, showcasing the methodology’s swift and adaptable nature to not only provide ongoing monitoring of seabird colonies and other wildlife species but also to conduct mortality assessments. As such, it could prove to be a valuable tool for conservation purposes.

Knowledge of seabird distributions plays a key role in seabird conservation and sustainable marine management, underpinning efforts to designate protected areas or assess the impact of human developments. Technological advances in animal tracking devices increasingly allow researchers to acquire information on the movement of birds from specific colonies. Nevertheless, most seabird colonies have not been subject to such tracking and another means must be found to assess their likely foraging distribution. Consequently, foraging range data collated and summarized across other tracking studies has often been used to estimate species‐level foraging distances for use within applied settings. However, generic species‐specific foraging ranges must be used with caution because of the amount of variation in seabird foraging behaviour at both the individual and colony levels. Specifically, although current reviews of seabird foraging ranges provide summary estimates of maximum foraging range, they typically do not assess the extent of among‐colony or among‐individual variation around such estimates. To address this, we conducted a variance component analysis of the maximum distance reached from the breeding colony per foraging trip (foraging range) using multi‐colony tracking datasets to estimate the degree of between‐individual, between‐year and between‐colony variation in foraging range in four UK breeding seabirds (Black‐legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla , Common Guillemot Uria aalge , Razorbill Alca torda and European Shag Gulosus aristotelis ). We also provide updated estimates of typical foraging ranges for each species and quantify the influence of breeding stage and colony size. Overall, between‐colony variation was typically the largest variance component, explaining 20–30% of the observed variation in foraging range across the four species. Individual‐level variation was also relatively large among Shag. In Kittiwake, Guillemot and Shag, but not Razorbill, average foraging ranges were positively associated with colony size. In addition, Kittiwake and Razorbill travelled further during incubation than during chick‐rearing. More generally, our estimates of mean foraging ranges for each species were subject to a high degree of uncertainty, which should be incorporated into impact assessments carried out using such data.

Eco-evolutionary responses to environmentally induced selection fundamentally depend on magnitudes of genetic variation underlying traits that facilitate population persistence. Additive genetic variances and associated heritabilities can vary across environmental conditions, especially for labile phenotypic traits expressed through early life. However, short-term seasonal dynamics of genetic variances are rarely quantified in wild populations, precluding inference on eco-evolutionary outcomes in seasonally dynamic systems. This limitation applies to seasonal migration versus residence, constituting one key trait where rapid microevolution could rescue partially migratory populations from changing seasonal environments. We fitted novel quantitative genetic 'capture-recapture animal models' to multi-generational pedigree and year-round resighting data from 11 cohorts of European shags (Gulosus aristotelis), to estimate season-specific additive genetic variances in liabilities to migrate, and in resulting expression of migration, in juveniles' first autumn and winter. We demonstrate non-negligible genetic variation underlying early-life migration, with twice as large additive genetic variances and heritabilities in autumn than winter. Since early-life survival selection on migration typically occurs in winter, highest genetic variation and strongest selection are seasonally desynchronized. Our results reveal complex within- and among-year dynamics of early-life genetic and phenotypic variation, demonstrating that adequate inference of eco-evolutionary outcomes requires quantifying microevolutionary potential on appropriate scales and seasonal timeframes.

Bacterial ribonuclease P (RNase P) is a tRNA processing endonuclease that occurs primarily as a ribonucleoprotein with a catalytic RNA subunit (P RNA). As one of the first ribozymes discovered, P RNA is a well-studied model system for understanding RNA catalysis and substrate recognition. Extensive structural and biochemical studies have revealed the structure of RNase P bound to precursor tRNA (ptRNA) and product tRNA. These studies also helped to define active site residues and propose the molecular interactions that are involved in substrate binding and catalysis. However, a detailed quantitative model of the reaction cycle that includes the structures of intermediates and the process of positioning active site metal ions for catalysis is lacking. To further this goal, we used a chemically modified minimal RNA duplex substrate (MD1) to establish a kinetic framework for measuring the functional effects of P RNA active site mutations. Substitution of U69, a critical nucleotide involved in active site Mg2+ binding, was found to reduce catalysis >500-fold as expected, but had no measurable effect on ptRNA binding kinetics. In contrast, the same U69 mutations had little effect on catalysis in Ca2+ compared to reactions containing native Mg2+ ions. CryoEM structures and SHAPE mapping suggested increased flexibility of U69 and adjacent nucleotides in Ca2+ compared to Mg2+. These results support a model in which slow catalysis in Ca2+ is due to inability to engage U69. These studies establish a set of experimental tools to analyze RNase P kinetics and mechanism and can be expanded to gain new insights into the assembly of the active RNase P-ptRNA complex.

1. Population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to environmental variation and change fundamentally depend on combinations of within- and among-cohort variation in the phenotypic expression of key life-history traits, and on corresponding variation in selection on those traits. Specifically, in partially migratory populations, spatio-seasonal dynamics depend on the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of seasonal migration versus residence, where more individuals migrate when selection favours migration. 2. Opportunity for adaptive (or, conversely, maladaptive) expression could be particularly substantial in early life, through the initial development of migration versus residence. However, within- and among-cohort dynamics of early-life migration, and of associated survival selection, have not been quantified in any system, preventing any inference on adaptive early-life expression. Such analyses have been precluded because data on seasonal movements and survival of sufficient young individuals, across multiple cohorts, have not been collected. 3. We undertook extensive year-round field resightings of 9359 colour-ringed juvenile European shags Gulosus aristotelis from 11 successive cohorts in a partially migratory population. We fitted Bayesian multi-state capture-mark-recapture models to quantify early-life variation in migration versus residence and associated survival across short temporal occasions through each cohort's first year from fledging, thereby quantifying the degree of adaptive phenotypic expression of migration within and across years. 4. All cohorts were substantially partially migratory, but the degree and timing of migration varied considerably within and among cohorts. Episodes of strong survival selection on migration versus residence occurred both on short timeframes within years, and cumulatively across entire first years, generating instances of instantaneous and cumulative net selection that would be obscured at coarser temporal resolutions. Further, the magnitude and direction of selection varied among years, generating strong fluctuating survival selection on early-life migration across cohorts, as rarely evidenced in nature. Yet, the degree of migration did not strongly covary with the direction of selection, indicating limited early-life adaptive phenotypic expression. 5. These results reveal how dynamic early-life expression of and selection on a key life-history trait, seasonal migration, can emerge across seasonal, annual, and multi-year timeframes, yet be substantially decoupled. This restricts the potential for adaptive phenotypic, microevolutionary, and population dynamic responses to changing seasonal environments.

A southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) stranded dead in central California, USA, with a distended pericardial sac containing thousands of free-floating proteinaceous masses. Serology, fungal culture, PCR, and sequencing confirmed the etiology of this novel lesion as Coccidioides immitis. Range expansion of this zoonotic pathogen is predicted with climate change.

Coronavirus endoribonuclease Nsp15 contributes to the evasion of host innate immunity by suppressing levels of viral dsRNA. Nsp15 cleaves both ssRNA and dsRNA in vitro with a strong preference for unpaired or bulged U residues, and its activity is stimulated by divalent ions. Here, we systematically quantified effects of RNA sequence and structure context that define its specificity. The results show that sequence preference for U↓A/G, observed previously, contributes only ca. 2-fold to kcat/Km. In contrast, dsRNA structure flanking a bulged U residue increases kcat/Km by an order of magnitude compared to ssRNA while base pairing in dsRNA essentially blocks cleavage. Despite enormous differences in multiple turnover kinetics, the effect of RNA structure on the cleavage step is minimal. Surprisingly, although divalent ion activation of Nsp15 is widely considered to be important for its biological function, the effect on kcat/Km is only ∼2-fold and independent of RNA structure. These results reveal a specificity landscape dominated by RNA structure and provide a quantitative framework for identifying interactions that underlie specificity, determining mechanisms of inhibition and resistance and defining targets important for coronavirus biology.

Stopped-flow fluorescence spectroscopy is a highly sensitive method for measuring rapid enzyme kinetics. A wide range of fluorophores can be employed, and fluorescence and fluorescence polarization can be measured. Thus, binding, conformational changes, and catalysis can, in principle, be measured, making it helpful in probing the entire kinetic landscape of a reaction. In this chapter, we use the bacterial RNA processing enzyme ribonuclease P (RNase P) as a model system to illustrate the determination of the kinetic constants for substrate binding and cleavage, thus allowing mechanistic questions regarding the effects of reaction conditions, mutations, or drug binding to be answered.

change affects timing of reproduction in many

The management of predator-prey conflicts can be a key aspect of species conservation. For management approaches to be effective, a robust understanding of the predator-prey relationship is needed, particularly when both predator and prey are species of conservation concern. On the Isle of May, Firth of Forth, Scotland, numbers of breeding Great Black-backed Gulls Larus marinus, a generalist predator, have been increasing since the 1980s, which has led to increasing numbers of sympatrically breeding Atlantic Puffins Fratercula arctica being predated during the breeding season. This may have consequences for species management on the Isle of May and impact assessments of offshore windfarms in the wider Firth of Forth area. We used population viability analysis to quantify under what predation pressure the Atlantic Puffin population may decline and become locally extinct over a three-generation period. The predation level empirically estimated in 2017 (1120 Puffins per year) was not sufficient to drive a decline in the Puffin population. Rather, an increase to approximately 3000 Puffins per year would be required to cause a population decline, and >4000 to drive the population to quasi-extinction within 66 years. We discuss the likelihood of such a scenario being reached on the Isle of May, and we recommend that where predator-prey conflicts occur, predation-driven mortality should be regularly quantified to inform conservation management and population viability analyses associated with impact assessments.

Climate warming can reduce food resources for animal populations. In species exhibiting parental care, parental effort is a 'barometer' of changes in environmental conditions. A key issue is the extent to which variation in parental effort can buffer demographic rates against environmental change. Seabirds breed in large, dense colonies and globally are major predators of small fish that are often sensitive to ocean warming. We explored the causes and consequences of annual variation in parental effort as indicated by standardised checks of the proportions of chicks attended by both, one or neither parent, in a population of common guillemots Uria aalge over four decades during which there was marked variation in marine climate and chick diet. We predicted that, for parental effort to be an effective buffer, there would be a link between environmental conditions and parental effort, but not between parental effort and demographic rates. Environmental conditions influenced multiple aspects of the prey delivered by parents to their chicks with prey species, length and energy density all influenced by spring sea surface temperature (sSST) in the current and/or previous year. Overall, the mean annual daily energy intake of chicks declined significantly when sSST in the current year was higher. In accordance with our first prediction, we found that parental effort increased with sSST in the current and previous year. However, the increase was insufficient to maintain chick daily energy intake. In contrast to our second prediction, we found that increased parental effort had major demographic consequences such that growth rate and fledging success of chicks, and body mass and overwinter survival of breeding adults all decreased significantly. Common guillemot parents were unable to compensate effectively for temperature-mediated variation in feeding conditions through behavioural flexibility, resulting in immediate consequences for breeding population size because of lower adult survival and potentially longer-term impacts on recruitment because of lower productivity. These findings highlight that a critical issue for species' responses to future climate change will be the extent to which behavioural buffering can offer resilience to deteriorating environmental conditions.

Ribonucleases and small nucleolytic ribozymes are both able to catalyze RNA strand cleavage through 2'-O-transphosphorylation, provoking the question of whether protein and RNA enzymes facilitate mechanisms that pass through the same or distinct transition states. Here, we report the primary and secondary 18O kinetic isotope effects for hepatitis delta virus ribozyme catalysis that reveal a dissociative, metaphosphate-like transition state in stark contrast to the late, associative transition states observed for reactions catalyzed by specific base, Zn2+ ions, or ribonuclease A. This new information provides evidence for a discrete ribozyme active site design that modulates the RNA cleavage pathway to pass through an altered transition state.

Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young.

RNA strand cleavage by 2 '-O-transphosphorylation is catalyzed not only by numerous nucleolytic RNA enzymes (ribozymes) but also by hydroxide or hydronium ions. In experiments, both cleavage of the 5 '-linked nucleoside and isomerization between 3 ',5 '- and 2 ',5 '- phosphodiesters occur under acidic conditions, while only the cleavage reaction is observed under basic conditions. An ab initio path-integral approach for simulating kinetic isotope effects is used to reveal the reaction mechanisms for RNA cleavage and isomerization reactions under acidic conditions. Moreover, the proposed mechanisms can also be combined through the experimental pH-rate profiles.

Pistol ribozyme (Psr) is a distinctclass of small endonucleolyticribozymes, which are important experimental systems for defining fundamentalprinciples of RNA catalysis and designing valuable tools in biotechnology.High-resolution structures of Psr, extensive structure-functionstudies, and computation support a mechanism involving one or morecatalytic guanosine nucleobases acting as a general base and divalentmetal ion-bound water acting as an acid to catalyze RNA 2 '-O-transphosphorylation. Yet, for a wide range of pH andmetal ion concentrations, the rate of Psr catalysis is too fast tomeasure manually and the reaction steps that limit catalysis are notwell understood. Here, we use stopped-flow fluorescence spectroscopyto evaluate Psr temperature dependence, solvent H/D isotope effects,and divalent metal ion affinity and specificity unconstrained by limitationsdue to fast kinetics. The results show that Psr catalysis is characterizedby small apparent activation enthalpy and entropy changes and minimaltransition state H/D fractionation, suggesting that one or more pre-equilibriumsteps rather than chemistry is rate limiting. Quantitative analysesof divalent ion dependence confirm that metal aquo ion pK (a) correlates with higher rates of catalysis independentof differences in ion binding affinity. However, ambiguity regardingthe rate-limiting step and similar correlation with related attributessuch as ionic radius and hydration free energy complicate a definitivemechanistic interpretation. These new data provide a framework forfurther interrogation of Psr transition state stabilization and showhow thermal instability, metal ion insolubility at optimal pH, andpre-equilibrium steps such as ion binding and folding limit the catalyticpower of Psr suggesting potential strategies for further optimization.

Many traits are phenotypically plastic, i.e. the same genotype expresses different phenotypes depending on the environment. Genotypes and individuals can vary in their response to the environment and this genetic (G × E) and individual (I × E) variation in reaction‐norm slopes can have important ecological or evolutionary consequences. Studies on I × E/G × E often fail to show slope variation, potentially due to the choice of the environmental covariate. Identifying the genuine environmental driver of phenotypic plasticity (the cue) is practically impossible and hence only proxies can be used. If the proxy is too weakly correlated with the cue, this may lead researchers to conclude there is little or no (variation in) plasticity, and hence lead to downwardly biased estimates of the potential for plastic responses (or evolutionary change in the slope) in response to environmental change. Alternatively, the environment‐specific mean phenotype (ESM) across individuals – which captures all environmental effects on the phenotype – as covariate should be less prone to such bias. We showed by simulation – after verifying the concept analytically – that using weakly correlated proxies indeed biased estimates of slope variation vis‐à‐vis the true cue downward but that ESM as a covariate held up well, even when multiple sources of I × E or an interaction between environments (I × E × E) existed in the data. Analysis of two real datasets revealed that estimated I × E and G × E, respectively, were more sizeable and precise when using ESM as opposed to reasonably informative environmental proxies. We argue that the ESM approach should be adopted by biologists as a yardstick in the study of (variation in) plasticity in the wild and that it may serve as a useful starting point for the search of better environmental proxies and unravelling complex I × E or G × E patterns.

Dissecting joint micro-evolutionary and plastic responses to environmental perturbations requires quantifying interacting components of genetic and environmental variation underlying expression of key traits. This ambition is particularly challenging for phenotypically discrete traits where multiscale decompositions are required to reveal nonlinear transformations of underlying genetic and environmental variation into phenotypic variation, and when effects must be estimated from incomplete field observations. We devised a joint multistate capture-recapture and quantitative genetic animal model, and fitted this model to full-annual-cycle resighting data from partially-migratory European shags (${Gulosus~{}aristotelis}$) to estimate key components of genetic, environmental and phenotypic variance in the ecologically critical discrete trait of seasonal migration versus residence. We demonstrate non-negligible additive genetic variance in latent liability for migration, resulting in detectable micro-evolutionary responses following two episodes of strong survival selection. Further, liability-scale additive genetic effects interacted with substantial permanent individual and temporary environmental effects to generate complex nonadditive effects on expressed phenotypes, causing substantial intrinsic gene-by-environment interaction variance on the phenotypic scale. Our analyses therefore reveal how temporal dynamics of partial seasonal migration arise from combinations of instantaneous micro-evolution and within-individual phenotypic consistency, and highlight how intrinsic phenotypic plasticity could expose genetic variation underlying discrete traits to complex forms of selection.