Abstract Temperature‐based degree‐day models describe insect seasonality and to predict key phenological events. We expand on the use of a temperature‐based process defining timing of reproduction through the incorporation of female reproductive physiology for the invasive pentatomid species Halyomorpha halys, the brown marmorated stink bug. A five‐stage ranking system based on ovary development was able to distinguish between the reproductive statuses of field‐collected females. Application of this ranking method described aspects of H. halys’ seasonality, overwintering biology, and phenology across geographic locations. Female H. halys were collected in the US from NJ, WV, NC, OR, and two sites in PA in 2006–2008 (Allentown, PA only) and 2012–2014. Results identify that H. halys enters reproductive diapause in temperate locations in the fall and that a delay occurs in developmental maturity after diapause termination in the spring. Modification of the Snyder method to identify biofix determined 12.7‐hr photoperiod as the best fit to define initiation of reproduction in the spring. Applying the biofix, we demonstrated significant differences between locations for the rate at which the overwintering generation transition into reproductive status and the factors contributing to this difference require further study. For example, after including abiotic variables influencing development such as temperature and photoperiod (critical diapause cue), reproduction occurred earlier in OR and for an extended period in NJ. This data describe a method to investigate insect seasonality by incorporating physiological development across multiple regions that can clarify phenology for insects with overlapping generations.

We implemented an integrated ecological assessment using a GIS-based decision support system model for Upper Delaware Scenic and Recreational River (UPDE) and Delaware Water Gap National Recreation Area (DEWA)—national park units with the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. Our assessment examined a variety of aquatic and terrestrial indicators of ecosystem components that reflect the parks' conservation purpose and reference condition. Our assessment compared these indicators to ecological thresholds to determine the condition of park watersheds. Selected indicators included chemical and physical measures of water quality, biologic indicators of water quality, and landscape condition measures. For the chemical and physical measures of water quality, we used a water quality index and each of its nine components to assess the condition of water quality in each watershed. For biologic measures of water quality, we used the Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera aquatic macroinvertebrate index and, secondarily, the Hilsenhoff aquatic macroinvertebrate index. Finally, for the landscape condition measures of our model, we used percent forest and percent impervious surface. Based on our overall assessment, UPDE and DEWA watersheds had an ecological assessment score of 0.433 on a −1 to 1 fuzzy logic scale. This score indicates that, in general, the natural resource condition within watersheds at these parks is healthy or ecologically unimpaired; however, we had only partial data for many of our indicators. Our model is iterative and new data may be incorporated as they become available. These natural parks are located within a rapidly urbanizing landscape—we recommend that natural resource managers remain vigilant to surrounding land uses that may adversely affect natural resources within the parks.

Ectotherms, such as insects, experience non-constant temperatures in nature. Daily mean temperatures can be derived from the daily maximum and minimum temperatures. However, the converse is not true and environments with the same mean temperature can exhibit very different diurnal temperate ranges. Here we apply a degree-day model for development of the grape berry moth (Paralobesia viteana, a significant vineyard pest in the northeastern USA) to investigate how different diurnal temperature range conditions can influence degree-day accumulation and, hence, insect life history. We first consider changes in diurnal temperature range independent of changes in mean temperatures. We then investigate grape berry moth life history under potential climate change conditions, increasing mean temperature via variable patterns of change to diurnal temperature range. We predict that diurnal temperature range change can substantially alter insect life history. Altering diurnal temperature range independent of the mean temperature can affect development rate and voltinism, with the magnitude of the effects dependent on whether changes occur to the daily minimum temperature (Tmin), daily maximum temperature (Tmax), or both. Allowing for an increase in mean temperature produces more marked effects on life history but, again, the patterns and magnitude depend on the nature of the change to diurnal temperature range together with the starting conditions in the local environment. The study highlights the importance of characterizing the influence of diurnal temperature range in addition to mean temperature alone.

Halyomorpha halys (Stal) (Heteroptera:Pentatomidae), the brown marmorated stink bug, was first recorded in the U.S. in 1996 in Allentown, PA, and has since spread to 38 states and the District of Columbia (Leskey et al. 2012, J. Econ. Entomol. 105(5): 1726 1735). The brown marmorated stink bug is a native to northeast Asia, Japan, and Korea where it has been a serious fruit pest since postWorld War II. It was not realized that the insect was invasive until 2001 when the population exploded (Hoebeke and Carter 2003, Am. Pro. Entomol. Soc. Wash. 105:225 237). This phytophagous pentatomid causes considerable damage to various trees, vegetables, and leguminous crops. Brown marmorated stink bug is highly mobile and often switches hosts, moving from plants with early-ripening fruits to those with late-ripening fruits. The wide range of host plants and seasonal migration among various hosts make the study of its life cycle biology and ecology difficult (Funayama 2004, App. Entomol. And Zool. 39(4): 617 623). The insect feeds via a stylet inserted into plant tissues that renders the fruit unmarketable as a fresh product and also becomes a disturbing pest for homeowners when it is attracted in very large numbers to houses in search of protected, overwintering sites. Beginning in 2006, commercial fruit growers reported damaged fruit in eastern Pennsylvania and western New Jersey orchards. The year 2010 marked a huge surge in its population density in the midAtlantic, both in homes as a vexatious pest and a detrimental herbivore in orchard systems, where it caused more that $37 million in crop losses (Martinson et al. 2013, Ann. Entomol. Soc. Am. 106(1): 47 -52) . The female typically lays an egg mass containing 28 eggs which hatch in 3 7 days (Nielsen and Hamilton 2009, J. Econ. Entomol. 102:1133 1140). The nymphs pass through 5 stadia (substages), with a molt between each, before reaching the adult stage (Nielsen et al. 2008, Environ. Entomol. 27:348 355; Takahashi 1930, Pg. 617 620 In Insect Pests on Fruit Trees). Because of the relatively recent introduction of this

The EMDS Consortium plans, designs, and oversees software development and integration for the EMDS suite of tools. This chapter presents an overview of the Consortium's plans for the next version of EMDS. Our objective is to release an EMDS 5.0 that will support web-services and Microsoft's workflow foundation. The 5.0 release will include major updates to the NetWeaver® engine, the Priority Analyst® engine, and the EMDS core.

Abstract We provide calibrated degree-day models to predict potential West Nile virus (WNV) transmission periods in Pennsylvania. We begin by following the standard approach of treating the degree-days necessary for the virus to complete the extrinsic incubation period (EIP), and mosquito longevity as constants. This approach failed to adequately explain virus transmission periods based on mosquito surveillance data from 4 locations (Harrisburg, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Williamsport) in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. Allowing the EIP and adult longevity to vary across time and space improved model fit substantially. The calibrated models increase the ability to successfully predict the WNV transmission period in Pennsylvania to 70-80% compared to less than 30% in the uncalibrated model. Model validation showed the optimized models to be robust in 3 of the locations, although still showing errors for Philadelphia. These models and methods could provide useful tools to predict WNV transmission period from surveillance datasets, assess potential WNV risk, and make informed mosquito surveillance strategies.

Over two growing seasons, Isomate GBM-Plus tube-type dispensers releasing the major pheromone component of grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), were evaluated in vineyards (Vitis spp.) in Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania. Dispensers were deployed in three different density-arrangement treatments: 124 dispensers per ha, 494 dispensers per ha, and a combined treatment with 124 dispensers per ha in the vineyard interior and 988 dispensers per ha at the vineyard border, equivalent to an overall density of 494 dispensers per ha. Moth captures and cluster infestation levels were compared at the perimeter and interior of vineyards receiving these different pheromone treatments and in vineyards receiving no pheromone. Orientation of male moths to pheromone-baited traps positioned at the perimeter and interior of vineyards was reduced as a result of mating disruption treatments compared with the nontreated control. These findings were consistent over both years of the study. Disruption of male moth captures in traps varied from 93 to 100% in treated vineyards, with the 494 dispensers per ha application rates providing significantly higher level of disruption than the 124 dispensers per ha rate, but only in 2007. Measurements of percentage of cluster infestation indicated much higher infestation at perimeters than in the interior of the vineyards in all three regions, but in both sample positions there was no significant effect of dispenser density on cluster infestation levels in either year. The contrasting results of high disruption of moth orientation to traps in vineyards that also had low levels of crop protection from this pheromone treatment are discussed in the context of strategies to improve mating disruption of this tortricid pest.

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Based on historical climate data from 1960 to 2008, and projected downscaled climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to estimate distributions of individuals entering successive generations per year. Under the low emissions scenario, we observed an earlier emergence from diapause and a shift in mean voltinism from 2.8 to 3.1 generations per year, with a fraction of the population achieving a fourth generation. Under the high emissions scenario, up to 3.6 mean generations per year were projected by the end of this century, with a very small fraction of the population achieving a fifth generation. Changes in voltinism in this and other species in response to climate change likely will cause significant economic and ecological impacts, and the methods presented here can be readily adapted to other species for which the input distributions are reasonably approximated.

We develop individual-based Monte Carlo methods to explore how climate change can alter insect voltinism under varying greenhouse gas emissions scenarios by using input distributions of diapause termination or spring emergence, development rate, and diapause initiation, linked to daily temperature and photoperiod. We show concurrence of these projections with a field dataset, and then explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), voltinism that may occur with climate projections developed from the average of three climate models using two different future emissions scenarios from the International Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). Based on historical climate data from 1960 to 2008, and projected downscaled climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to estimate distributions of individuals entering successive generations per year. Under the low emissions scenario, we observed an earlier emergence from diapause and a shift in mean voltinism from 2.8 to 3.1 generations per year, with a fraction of the population achieving a fourth generation. Under the high emissions scenario, up to 3.6 mean generations per year were projected by the end of this century, with a very small fraction of the population achieving a fifth generation. Changes in voltinism in this and other species in response to climate change likely will cause significant economic and ecological impacts, and the methods presented here can be readily adapted to other species for which the input distributions are reasonably approximated.

Diapause in insects occurs in response to environmental cues, such as changes in photoperiod, and it is a major adaptation by which insects synchronize their activity with biotic resources and environmental constraints. For multivoltine agricultural insect pests, diapause initiation is an important consideration in management decisions, particularly toward the end of the growing season. The grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), is the main insect pest affecting viticulture, and this insect responds to postsummer solstice photoperiods to initiate diapause. Because the range of grape berry moth extends from southern Canada to the southern United States, different populations are exposed to different photoperiodic regimes. We quantified the diapause response in grape berry moth populations from Arkansas, Michigan, New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Virginia, and observed latitudinal variation in diapause initiation. Populations from Michigan, New York, and Pennsylvania responded significantly different than those from Arkansas, Texas, and Virginia. We also observed, as a consequence of our experiments, that the timing of our laboratory studies influenced grape berry moth's response to photoperiod, ceteris paribus. Experiments that were conducted when grape berry moth would be naturally in diapause resulted in a significant higher proportion of diapausing pupae at photoperiods (i.e., >15 h) that generally do not induce diapause, suggesting that attention should be paid to the timing of behavioral and physiological experiments on insects. This relationship between photoperiod and diapause induction in grape berry moth across geographic regions will provide applicable knowledge to improve pest management decisions.

Climate change can alter insect population dynamics in several ways, including in the number of generations per year and Spring emergence date. We explore changes in grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens)(Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), seasonality that may occur with climate projections developed from the climate models (GFDL, HadCM3 and PCM) based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on emission scenarios in North East, Pennsylvania. Previous studies have quantified the relationship between environmental factors such as temperature and photoperiod, and diapause termination, diapause initiation, and temperature dependent development in P. viteana. Based on historical climate data from 1960, and predicted downscaled daily climate data until 2099 under both high (A1fi) and low (B1) greenhouse gas emission scenarios of the IPCC, we used concepts of P. viteana biology to develop estimates of the number of generations per year and Spring emergence date using an individual-based Monte Carlo approach.

We modeled development in grape berry moth, Endopiza viteana (Clemens), which exploits wild and cultivated Vitis. Laboratory experiments were used to derive the temperature-dependent developmental curve for eggs, larvae, and pupae. We used linear interpolation to estimate stage-specific base temperature thresholds and degree-day requirements under laboratory conditions. We also estimated parameters of the Logan and Lactin nonlinear developmental models. Lastly, we conducted field experiments to evaluate the conventional degree-day model, which has a base threshold of 10 degreesC; an improved degree-day model that was based on our laboratory observations; and nonlinear developmental models in predicting seasonal grape berry moth development. We concluded that the Logan nonlinear model provided the best estimates of grape berry moth field development, and an improved degree-day model should use 8.41 degreesC as a minimum base temperature threshold and 423.9 as the egg-to-adult degree-day requirement, Also, after comparing degree-day accumulation estimates using the maximum-minimum method and trapezoidal integration to hourly temperature measurements, we concluded that the two approaches provided similar estimates during June-September.

Climate change can cause major changes to the dynamics of individual species and to those communities in which they interact. One effect of increasing temperatures is on insect voltinism, with the logical assumption that increases in surface temperatures would permit multivoltine species to increase the number of generations per year. Though insect development is primarily driven by temperature, most multivoltine insect species rely on photoperiodic cues, which do not change from year-to-year or in response to climate warming, to initiate diapause. Thus, the relationship between climate change and voltinism could be complex. We use a phenology model for grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), which incorporates temperature-dependent development and diapause termination, and photoperiod-dependent diapause induction, to explore historical patterns in year-to-year voltinism fluctuations. We then extend this model to predict voltinism under varying scenarios of climate change to show the importance of both the quality and quantity of accumulated heat units. We also illustrate that increases in mean surface temperatures > 2 degrees C can have dramatic effects on insect voltinism by causing a shift in the ovipositional period that currently is subject to diapause-inducing photoperiods.

In this paper, we applied a neuro-fuzzy system to classify the morphologically indistinguishable Rhagoletis pomonella sibling species group. A carefully selected set of wing structure and shape variables were fuzzified using triangular membership functions. The neuro-fuzzy system NEFCLASS was applied to train the fly morphological datasets and a set of fuzzy rules were constructed. A fuzzy inference engine was constructed using the fuzzy rule bases. Furthermore, manually pruned fuzzy rules were employed to make a fuzzy key to classify this sibling species group.

The Rhagoletis pomonella species complex consists of at least four sibling species. They are highly host specific as larvae, and display great fidelity as adults. The only certain way to identify them is to know the host materials from which they came, because these fruit flies are very similar or identical, and have been especially recalcitrant to morphological separation. In this paper we hypothesize that there is hidden biological information in the wing vein structure in the pomonella species group that can be used to distinguish them. Classification of the species complex is modeled via Bayesian and probability neural networks using information on wing size, shape and vein structure. The classification models were optimized through a genetic algorithm by selecting the optimal features and performed well in classifying new specimens. The results have implications for agricultural production and quarantine issues and could be helpful in devising a classification system for rapid identification of certain invasive species at ports of entry.

Most transgenic corn seed is now treated with systemic neonicotinoid insecticides. To address potential direct nontarget effects of these combined technologies, 16 Carabidae species from 10 genera (Agonum, Amara, Anisodactylus, Bembidion, Cllaenius, Harpalus, Patrobus, Poecilus, Pterostichus, and Scarites) field-collected from corn were directly exposed to Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) Cry toxin-laden pollens and seed treatments in feeding and defined-dose bioassays. All adults readily fed on field or sweet corn pollens that expressed coleopteran-specific Cry3Bb1 or lepidopteran-targeting CryIAb/c, and no significant toxicity was observed. Adult survivorship ranged front 47 d for the predator Pterostichus melanarius (Illiger) to a year for the more omnivorous Scarite, quadriceps Chaudoir, feeding solely oil pollen containing 30-90 mu g Cry3Bb1/g and water. In contrast, commercial doses of neonicotinoid seed treatments (imidacloprid, thiamethoxam, or clothianidin) elicited nearly complete mortality for 18 carabid species in 4-d bioassays containing corn seedlings. Carabid consumption of fungicide-only (fludioxonil plus rnefenoxam) seed treatments was generally observed within I d, compared with a 2-d latency on neonicotinoid treatments, suggesting an antifeedant effect of the insecticide. In microcosm bioassays containing a corn seedling and five prey, clothianidin seed treatments killed adult western corn rootworm, Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte and S. quadriceps, although the smaller Hmpalns pensylvanicus (DeGeer) was more tolerant. We Conclude that the neonicotinoid/fungicide seed treatments, and not Cry3Bb1 or CryIAb/c, are a major direct mortality factor for ground beetles. Field studies are needed to determine population and community level effects on Carabidae when these transgenic and seed-treatment technologies are combined.

To maintain healthy ecosystems, it is increasingly imperative that federal land managers be prepared to monitor and assess levels of atmospheric pollutants and ecological effects in national parks, wildlife refuges, and wilderness areas. Atmospheric deposition of sulfur and/or nitrogen has the potential to damage sensitive terrestrial, and especially aquatic, ecosystems and can affect the survival of in-lake and in-stream biota. Federal land managers have a need to assess, at the individual park or wilderness area level, whether surface water resources are sensitive to air pollution degradation and the extent to which they have been impacted by atmospheric deposition of sulfur or nitrogen or influenced by other complicating factors. The latter can include geologic sources of sulfur, natural organic acidity, and the influence of disturbance and land use on water quality. This paper describes a knowledge-based decision support system (DSS) network for classifying lakewater resources in five acid-sensitive regions of the United States. The DSS allows federal land managers to conduct a preliminary assessment of the status of individual lakes prior to consulting an acid–base chemistry expert. The DSS accurately portrays the decision structure and assessment outcomes of domain experts while capturing interregional differences in acidification sensitivity and historic acid deposition loadings. It is internally consistent and robust with respect to missing water chemistry input data.