BACKGROUND:During this period of heightened risk for political violence and authoritarian government in the United States (US), there is an urgent need for information on the public's support for authoritarianism and government-initiated violence and its willingness to engage in pro- or anti-government violence. METHODS:Findings are from Wave 4, conducted May 23-June 13, 2025, of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Findings are presented for the cohort as a whole and for demographic and political affiliation subgroups. Outcomes are expressed as weighted prevalences and adjusted prevalence differences, with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate. RESULTS:The survey completion rate was 89.9%. Of 8248 respondents, 15.0% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13.9%, 16.1%) strongly or very strongly agreed that "having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy." One in 10 (9.6%, 95% CI 8.8%, 10.6%) strongly or very strongly agreed that "the [federal] government should use the military to help enforce its policies in the United States," and 4.4% (95% CI 3.7%, 5.2%) strongly or very strongly agreed with the use of "private armed militia groups" for that purpose. Between 5% and 7% of respondents strongly or very strongly agreed that the federal government should arrest its critics, and about 2% were very or completely willing to personally engage in violence in support of (or opposition to) "government policies or the President" and against individual opponents (or supporters) of the government. Younger respondents tended to be less supportive of democracy as a form of government, more supportive of statements consistent with authoritarianism, and more willing to engage in pro- or anti-government violence. Compared with strong Democrats, "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) Republicans were more supportive of statements consistent with authoritarianism and the current federal government's use of the military and private militia groups but were not more willing personally to engage in violence. CONCLUSIONS:In 2025, substantial minorities of US adults endorsed statements consistent with authoritarianism. Smaller minorities endorsed and were willing to engage in pro- or anti-government violence. These findings call for sustained, concerted action to avert widespread political violence and preserve democracy in the United States.

BackgroundToo little is known about the effectiveness of efforts to prevent firearm violence. We evaluated California’s Armed and Prohibited Persons System (APPS), which identifies legal purchasers of firearms who have become prohibited persons and seeks to recover all firearms and ammunition to which they have access.Design and methodsThis cluster-randomised pragmatic trial was made possible by APPS’s expansion from a small pilot to a continuing statewide programme. We included 363 California cities, allocated to early (n=187) or later (n=176) intervention in blocks stratified by region within the state, and within region by population and violent crime rate. The study period began 1 February 2015; region-specific end dates ranged from 1 May 2015 to 1 February 2016. Analysis was on an intention-to-treat, difference-in-difference basis using generalised linear mixed models and generalised estimating equations with robust SEs. The population-level primary outcome measures were monthly city-level counts of firearm-related homicides, robberies and aggravated assaults. The primary model was adjusted for stratification variables; city-level population, population density, socioeconomic status and firearm purchasing; year; and month.FindingsAllocation groups were well balanced on baseline characteristics and implementation measures. In adjusted models, allocation to early intervention was not associated with statistically significant differences in any primary outcome measure; these findings were robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. There was some heterogeneity across regions.ConclusionsThe APPS intervention directly affects a very small percentage of the population, limiting its potential for population-level effects. Individual-level analyses may provide a better estimate of the intervention’s effectiveness.Trial registration numberNCT02318732.

Background: Recent survey research has found concerning but stable prevalences of support for and willingness to engage in political violence in the United States (US). This study re-estimates those prevalences in mid-2026—a midterm election year in which support for political violence might be expected to increase. Methods: Findings are from Wave 5, conducted May 15-June 15, 2026, of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel that was initiated in 2022. Primary findings are for the entire cohort; a secondary analysis examined responses by political party and Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement affiliations. Principal outcomes are measures of justification for, willingness to engage in, and anticipated firearm use in political violence. Results for individual years are presented as weighted prevalences and item scores. Change from mid-2025 to mid-2026 is estimated based on mean change scores. Results: The completion rate was 90.7%; there were 7,752 respondents. As in 2025, high levels of support for and willingness to participate in political violence were uncommon in 2026. Of 53 items addressing anticipation of, justification for, and willingness to commit political violence, 51 showed decreases from 2025 to 2026. All 51 decreases were small, but 35 were significant; only expectation of civil war increased significantly. Decreases from 2025-2026 occurred across the political spectrum. In 2026, MAGA Republicans and MAGA supporters who were non-Republicans were often more supportive of political violence than others, and the latter were often more willing to engage in it. Conclusions: Nearly all measures of support for and willingness to commit political violence decreased for the population as a whole, in many cases across the political spectrum. Higher levels of support for and willingness to participate in violence among MAGA supporters who were non-Republicans warrant further investigation. These findings can help advance prevention efforts, which are urgently needed in this US midterm election year.

Abstract Background The National Rifle Association (NRA) is one of the most widely known social movement organizations in the United States (US). At a time of heightened concern for political violence, we assess individual-level associations between self-reported NRA approval and support for political violence, willingness to engage in political violence, and attitudes and beliefs linked to political violence. Methods Findings are for respondents to Wave 2 (conducted May 18-June 8, 2023) of a nationally representative longitudinal survey; participants are members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Prevalences are reported as weighted percentages with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Associations are expressed as adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs), measured in percentage points (pp), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate and reported as q-values. Results The Wave 2 completion rate was 84.2%. There were 9,385 respondents, of whom 8,361 (89.1%) reported their level of NRA approval and are included here. Strong or very strong NRA approval was reported by 2,669 respondents (“NRA approvers”; 27.0%, 95% CI 25.7%, 28.2%), and 3,423 respondents (46.6%, 95% CI 45.1%, 48.0%) reported non-approval. Only half of NRA approvers (49.8%, 95% CI 47.2%, 52.5%) personally owned firearms. NRA approvers were more likely than non-approvers to support political violence and more willing to engage in it. For example, approvers were more than twice as likely as non-approvers to view violence as usually or always justified to advance at least 1 political objective (approvers 44.0%, 95% CI 41.4%, 46.6%; non-approvers 21.5%, 95% CI 19.6%, 23.4%; aPD 18.3pp, 95% CI 14.1pp, 22.5pp; q < 0.001) and to consider it very or extremely likely that they would shoot someone to advance a political objective (approvers 4.2%, 95% CI 2.9%, 5.5%; non-approvers 0.8%, 95% CI 0.4%, 1.2%; aPD 4.3pp, 95% CI 2.5pp, 6.1pp; q < 0.001). NRA approvers were more likely than non-approvers to endorse a wide array of beliefs and personal characteristics that have been associated with violence, including political violence. Conclusions Approval of the NRA is associated with increased support for and willingness to engage in political violence, including lethal violence. These findings can help focus political violence prevention efforts in the United States.

Background: From 2022 to 2024, an annual, nationally representative, longitudinal survey in the United States (US) found high prevalences of support for and willingness to engage in political violence, with differences by party affiliation. The November 2024 US federal election replaced a Democratic administration with a Republican one, led by a president who has repeatedly endorsed use of force by the government against civilians. This study examines changes in support for and willingness to engage in political violence from mid-2024 to mid-2025. Methods: Survey participants were adult (age ≥ 18 years as of recruitment in 2022) members of Ipsos Knowledge Panel. Wave 4 was conducted May 23-June 13, 2025. The primary analysis generated findings for the cohort as a whole. In a secondary analysis, respondents were categorized by self-reported political party and Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement affiliations. Principal outcome measures comprised self-reported justification for political violence, personal willingness to engage in political violence, and expectation of firearm use in future political violence. Results for 2025 were presented as weighted prevalences with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Change from 2024 to 2025 was estimated based on the means of aggregated individual change scores for each outcome measure. Results: The 2025 completion rate was 89.9% (8,248 respondents/9,179 invitees). For the cohort as a whole, there were only small increases from 2024 to 2025 in the prevalence of the belief that violence was usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 20 political objectives (2024: 32.3%, 95% CI 31.0%, 33.6%; 2025: 35.6%, 95% CI 34.1%, 37.0%) and to advance 16 of 20 specified objectives when these were assessed individually. There were no changes in the prevalence of high-level personal willingness to commit political violence or in expectation of firearm use in future political violence. Despite some increases in support for political violence from 2024 to 2025 among Democrats, MAGA Republicans in 2025 were substantially more likely than strong Democrats to consider violence usually or always justified to advance at least 1 of 20 political objectives (MAGA Republicans 52.2%, 95% CI 48.4%, 56.1%; strong Democrats 32.1%, 95% CI 28.6%, 35.6%) and to advance 10 of those objectives when objectives were considered individually. MAGA Republicans and strong Democrats did not differ in 2025 in the percentages that were very or completely willing to commit political violence by level of severity or against any target population. A small group of non-Republican MAGA supporters had higher prevalences than most other groups on many measures. Conclusions: Support for and willingness to commit political violence increased only modestly from 2024 to 2025 and, where differences existed, remained generally higher among MAGA movement affiliates and Republicans than among Democrats. These findings can help focus prevention efforts.

Too little is known about the distribution of risk for committing political violence, a serious concern for the United States. This study explores the association between affiliation with the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement and support for and willingness to engage in political violence. Findings are from Wave 3 of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024. All KnowledgePanel members who responded to prior waves were invited to participate. Political party and MAGA affiliations were reported by respondents; the principal comparison is between MAGA Republicans and non-MAGA non-Republicans. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences (aPDs, reported as percentage point (pp) differences), with p-values adjusted for the false discovery rate. The completion rate was 88.4

Background: In 2025, during a protracted period of risk for political violence in the United States (US) and with a trend toward authoritarianism evident in the new federal administration, there is an urgent need for information on the public’s support for authoritarianism and government-initiated violence and the public’s willingness to engage in pro- or anti-government violence. Methods: Findings are from Wave 4 of a nationally representative annual longitudinal survey of members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. They are expressed as weighted proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), with extrapolations to counts for the US adult population. Results: The completion rate was 90.0%; there were 8248 respondents. About one third of respondents agreed at least somewhat that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy” and that “having political leaders I can trust to look out for my values and interests” was more important than “having election outcomes determined democratically.” About one in four agreed at least somewhat that “we should suspend Congress for a few years so a strong leader can clean up the mess made by politicians in Washington.” A third of respondents agreed at least somewhat that “the [federal] government should use the military to help enforce its policies in the United States.” About 14% of respondents agreed at least somewhat with the use of “private armed militia groups” for that purpose. Between 14% and 20% of respondents agreed at least somewhat that the federal government should arrest ordinary people and reporters or journalists who publicly oppose or criticize “its policies or the President.” About 2% of respondents were very or completely willing to personally “use force or violence” to support or to oppose “the government’s enforcement of its policies” and against individual opponents or supporters of “government policies or the President.” Conclusions: In 2025, substantial minorities of US adults endorse pro-authoritarian views. Smaller minorities endorse and are willing to participate in pro- or anti-government violence. These findings call for sustained, concerted action to preserve democracy in the United States by non-violent means.

BACKGROUND:A nationally representative longitudinal survey in the USA found a decrease in population-level support for political violence from 2022 to 2023. This individual-level analysis of those data examines associations between the occurrence of 18 specified life events and subsequent change in views on political violence. METHODS:Participants in the Life in America Survey were members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. Wave 2 of the survey was fielded online May 18-June 8, 2023; all respondents to 2022's Wave 1 who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate. We calculated individual scores for 2022 and 2023 on 35 political violence measures from the first component of an ordinal principal components analysis and computed the difference in scores for individual respondents from 2022 to 2023 to represent a 1-year change in these measures. Our principal outcomes are adjusted mean differences in change scores from 2022 to 2023 between individuals experiencing and not experiencing the 18 life events. RESULTS:The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. Support for political violence decreased for 19.9% of respondents, increased for 14.2%, and remained unchanged for 65.9%. When events were considered individually in a model that adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and other life events, only "things improved for me financially" was associated with decreased support for political violence among respondents as a whole; "I gave up on politics" was associated with an increase. No event was associated with change among both men and women when they were analyzed separately. Among respondents who reported in 2022 that violence was usually or always justified for at least 1 political objective, no events were associated with change in support for political violence. Among those who strongly approved in 2022 of left-wing violent extremist organizations or movements, "my political beliefs changed a lot" was associated with a large decrease. CONCLUSIONS:In this cohort, few life events were associated with changes in support for political violence across the entire population, but there were important subset findings. The findings support interventions to improve measures of economic well-being across the population and to encourage belief change among extremists as political violence prevention measures.

Background:Racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, antisemitism, and Islamophobia increase risk for perpetration of interpersonal violence generally. We quantify their associations, singly and in combination, with support for and willingness to commit political violence in the United States, at a time of increased concern that such violence may become widespread. Methods:Findings are from Wave 2 of a nationally representative longitudinal survey, conducted May 18-June 8, 2023. Weighted prevalences of the characteristics under study are estimated from levels of agreement with abbreviated versions of previously validated scales, with missing values imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Associations with political violence are expressed as adjusted prevalence differences by level of agreement. Findings:The survey completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% CI 49.4%-52.1%) of respondents were female; 62.7% (95% CI 61.2%-64.1%) were white, non-Hispanic; the weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. Prevalences of strong agreement ranged from 2.9% (95% CI 2.4%-3.4%) for antisemitism to 26.6% (95% CI 25.4%-27.8%) for homonegativity. In all cases, significantly higher percentages of persons in strong agreement than in non-agreement supported and were willing to commit political violence; the largest differences were for Islamophobia and hostile sexism. Less prevalent characteristics tended to have stronger associations with political violence. Associations were larger when characteristics were combined in a single measure. Interpretation:Racism, hostile sexism, homonegativity, transphobia, xenophobia, antisemitism, and Islamophobia were each strongly associated with support for and willingness to commit political violence in the United States. Such characteristics are resistant to change; prevention efforts should also seek to uncouple them from associated violent behaviors. Funding:Supported by grants from the Joyce Foundation, California Wellness Foundation, and Heising-Simons Foundation, and by the California Firearm Violence Research Center Violence Prevention Research Program, both at the University of California, Davis.

BACKGROUND:In 2023, Wave 2 of an annual, nationally representative longitudinal survey found a concerning level of agreement that civil war was likely in the USA and, among those who agreed, widespread belief that civil war was needed. This study updates those findings to 2024 and explores respondents' predicted involvement in such a conflict. METHODS:Findings are from Wave 3, conducted May 23-June 14, 2024; participants were members of Ipsos KnowledgePanel. All respondents to prior waves who remained in KnowledgePanel were invited to participate; to facilitate comparison with 2023 findings, this analysis is restricted to Wave 3 respondents who had responded to both Waves 1 and 2. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions and adjusted prevalence differences. RESULTS:The Wave 3 completion rate was 88.4% overall and 91.6% for respondents to Waves 1 and 2; there were 8185 respondents in the analytic sample. After weighting, half the sample was female (50.6%, 95% CI 49.1%, 52.1%); the weighted mean (SD) age was 50.8 (16.4) years. Few respondents agreed strongly or very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States" (6.5%, 95% CI 5.7%, 7.3%) or that "the United States needs a civil war to set things right" (3.6%, 95% CI 3.0%, 4.2%). These prevalences were higher among subsets of respondents previously associated with increased support for and willingness to commit political violence. Of the small minority (3.7%, 95% CI 3.1%, 4.3%) who thought it very or extremely likely that they would be combatants, 44.5% (95% CI 36.5%, 52.6%) reported that they would convert to not likely if this were urged by family members; 23-31% were open to persuasion by friends, respected religious leaders, elected officials, and the media. CONCLUSIONS:In mid-2024, the expectation that civil war was likely and the belief that it was needed were uncommon and were unchanged from 2023. Those expecting to participate as combatants reported openness to change in response to input from many sources. These findings can help guide prevention efforts.

Background: There is evidence linking use of controlled substances with perpetration of interpersonal violence. While the United States constitution protects the right to own a firearm, federal law prohibits firearm purchase and possession by persons believed to be at high risk for violence, including those who use controlled substances unlawfully. Methods: We report here the results of a 13-year prospective observational study on the risk of violent crime associated with a history of criminal drug charges in a cohort of 79,678 legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001. The main outcomes were post-purchase charges for any violent crime, violent Crime Index crimes (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), and firearm-related violent crimes. The main exposure of interest was a history of pre-purchase charge(s) for drug-related offenses; we examined as a secondary exposure a history of marijuana-related charges. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95 % confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards multiple events models. Results: We found that legal handgun purchasers in California with a history of drug-related charges, even those with marijuana charges only, had triple the risk of a post-purchase violent crime charge compared to purchasers with no criminal charges (drug charges only: aHR=2.9, 95 % CI 2.2-3.8; marijuana charges only: aHR=3.3, 95 % CI 1.8-6.0). In addition, a criminal history of drug charges only vs. no criminal history was associated with increased risk of one or more violent crime charges after the first post-purchase arrest event (aHR=1.6, 95 % CI 1.2-2.3). Conclusion: It is incumbent on researchers and policy makers to understand the nature and causes of this risk in order to take effective steps towards mitigation.

Background Prohibiting the purchase and possession of firearms by those at risk of violence is an established approach to preventing firearm violence. Prior studies of legal purchasers have focused on convictions for specific crimes, such as violent misdemeanors and driving under the influence (DUI). We broaden that line of inquiry by investigating and comparing the associations between prior arrests for most categories of crime and subsequent arrest for violent offenses among legal handgun purchasers in California. Methods In this longitudinal cohort study of 79,678 legal handgun purchasers in California in 2001, we group arrest charges prior to their first purchases in 2001 according to categories defined by the Uniform Crime Report (UCR) Handbook. We use a gradient boosting machine to identify categories of offenses that are most important for predicting arrest for violent crime following firearm purchase. For each category identified, we then estimate the difference in risk of subsequent arrest for a violent offense using survival regression models. Results We identified eight crime categories with high predictive importance: simple assaults, aggravated assaults, vehicle violations, weapon, other crimes, theft, drug abuse, and DUI. Compared to purchasers with no prior arrests, those with a prior arrest for any one of the eight important categories and no other categories were found to be at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault), with the greatest estimated risk corresponding to the simple assault UCR category (adjusted hazard ratio 4.0; 95% CI 2.8–5.9). Simple assault was also associated with the greatest risk for subsequent arrest for firearm violence (adjusted hazard ratio 4.6; 95% CI 2.4–9.0) and any violent offense (adjusted hazard ratio 3.7; 95% CI 2.7–5.0). Conclusion The findings of this study suggest that prior arrests for a broad array of crimes, both violent and non-violent, are associated with risk of subsequent violent crimes, including Crime Index-listed violent crimes and firearm violence, among legal purchasers of firearms. Current policies aimed at restricting access to firearms for individuals at increased risk of violence should be re-examined considering these findings.

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is a considerable public health problem in the US, and evidence suggests that both drugs and firearms contribute to the risk of IPV and its severity. This study uses a retrospective, longitudinal cohort design to explore the association between past arrests, charges incurred in the legal process, and convictions for drug-related crimes, and risk of future arrest for IPV among legal handgun purchasers. The cohort included all legal purchasers of handguns in California in 2001 between the ages of 21 and 49 ( n = 79,678), 156 of whom had pre-purchase drug charges and post-purchase IPV charges. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with age at time of handgun purchase, sex, and race/ethnicity, and an array of community characteristics as covariates. Over the study period (2001-2013), in comparison to handgun purchasers who had no charges or convictions prior to their index purchase, risk for future IPV arrest was increased for purchasers whose only prior charges were drug-related (aHR = 3.4 [95% CI: 2.4-4.9]) and purchasers who had both prior drug- and non-drug related charges (aHR = 4.9 [95% CI: 4.1-6.0]). The magnitude of the risk ratio was greater when multiple drug types were involved and when the person had been charged with both the use and sale of drugs. Our findings suggest that, among legal handgun purchasers, prior drug charges are associated with future risk of IPV arrests or convictions. Given the established link between firearm access and IPV severity and fatality, these findings may inform the development and enforcement of policies that reduce firearm access for those at elevated risk of perpetrating intimate partner violence.

Perpetrators of intimate partner violence (IPV) often reoffend, and firearm access increases risk of severe injury or fatality. Prior research identifies an association between a history of violent misdemeanor convictions among handgun purchasers and increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent crime; the risk associated specifically with an IPV criminal history remains largely unexplored. The current study examined a cohort of 76,311 California adults who legally purchased a handgun in 2001 and followed them through 2013. Compared with purchasers who had no criminal history at the time of purchase, those with a history of only IPV ( n = 178) charges were at increased risk of subsequent arrest for a violent Crime Index crime (murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4–5.1), any violent crime (AHR, 3.2; 95% CI: 2.0–5.1), and an IPV crime (AHR, 5.2; 95% CI: 3.0–9.0). Purchasers with both IPV and non-IPV charges demonstrated the greatest risk of re-arrest relative to those with no criminal history. Despite the strength of the relationship between IPV and subsequent arrest, a small proportion of handgun purchasers with an IPV criminal history were re-arrested for firearm violence crimes, limiting application for risk assessment purposes. Results affirm prior research identifying IPV as a risk factor for future offending.

Firearm access is a risk factor for firearm suicide; substance use may confer additional risk. In this retrospective cohort study, we estimated the associations between prior alcohol and drug charges at the time of handgun purchase and subsequent suicide among men in California. The sample comprised all men who legally purchased a handgun in California in 2001 and who were age >= 21 at the time of acquisition (N = 101,377), identified in the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Dealer's Record of Sale database. Exposures included alcohol and drug criminal charges and convictions accrued January 1, 1990 until the first ('index') handgun acquisition in 2001, recorded in the CA DOJ Criminal History Information System. Outcomes included suicide and firearm suicide occurring after the index purchase and before January 1, 2016. A total of 1907 purchasers had alcohol charges, 1248 had drug charges, and 304 had both; 594 purchasers died by suicide (516 by firearm suicide). Compared with those with neither alcohol nor drug charges, those with alcohol charges had 2.20 times the hazard of suicide (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.39-3.46) and 2.22 times the hazard of firearm suicide (95% CI, 1.36-3.62). Risk was most elevated among those with more recent charges and those with 2 or more charges, and in the time period closest to the purchase. The associations for drug charges and the combination of alcohol and drug charges were not distinguishable from the null. Firearm owners with alcohol offenses may benefit from intervention to reduce firearm access and alcohol use.

Background The prevalence and characteristics of handgun purchasers’ criminal charge histories have never been described for a large population of firearm owners, but such information is critical to understanding risk factors for subsequent violence in this population. We sought to characterize legal handgun purchasers in California and compare this group to the state population, to quantify the proportion with a criminal charge history at purchase, and to identify modifiable factors associated with of having such a history. Methods This cross-sectional study of all 79,927 legal handgun purchasers aged 21–49 years in California in 2001 used log-linear generalized additive models to identify factors associated with having a criminal charge history at purchase. Subjects are from a longitudinal study of incident criminal activity among handgun purchasers. Results The majority (91.03%) of purchasers were male; whites were overrepresented and Hispanics were underrepresented relative to their population size. At the time of purchase, 16.68% had a criminal charge history and 10.71% had a criminal conviction. Among men with such a history, 31.28% had been charged with a violent crime and 16.54% had been charged with a firearm-related crime. The strongest factor associated with having a criminal charge history was redeeming a pawned handgun (prevalence ratio: 1.82; 95% confidence interval: 1.71, 1.93). Conclusions Despite California’s stringent firearm purchase laws, more than 1-in-6 handgun purchasers had a criminal charge history at purchase. This proportion may be higher in states with less restrictive firearm purchasing eligibility criteria.

Background A substantial proportion of individuals who lawfully purchase firearms later become unlawful owners ('prohibited firearm owners'), usually following events associated with an increased risk for future violence. This high-risk population has not previously been described. We aimed to characterise all individuals in California's Armed and Prohibited Persons System (APPS), a statewide programme for recovering firearms from individuals who legally purchased them and later became prohibited from ownership. Methods We used univariate and bivariate statistics to describe and compare prohibited firearm owners in APPS with a random sample of non-prohibited firearm owners in relation to age, sex, race/ethnicity and type of firearms owned as of 1 February 2015. We also characterised the geographical distribution of prohibited firearm owners and described their prohibitions. Results Of the 18 976 prohibited firearm owners, most were men (93%), half were white (53%) and the mean age was 47 years. Prohibited firearm owners were more likely to be male and to be black or Hispanic people than non-prohibited owners. Both prohibited and non-prohibited firearm owners had an average of 2.6 firearms, mostly handguns. Nearly half (48%) of prohibited firearm owners had a felony conviction. Extrapolating from our findings, we estimated that there are approximately 100 000 persons in the USA who unlawfully maintained ownership of their firearms following a felony conviction. Conclusions Retention of firearms among persons who become lawfully prohibited from possessing them is common in California. Given the nationwide dearth of a programme to recover such weapons, this is likely true in other states as well.

Importance Alcohol use is a risk factor for firearm-related violence, and firearm owners are more likely than others to report risky drinking behaviors. Objective To study the association between prior convictions for driving under the influence (DUI) and risk of subsequent arrest for violent crimes among handgun purchasers. Design In this retrospective, longitudinal cohort study, 79 678 individuals were followed up from their first handgun purchase in 2001 through 2013. The study cohort included all legally authorized handgun purchasers in California aged 21 to 49 years at the time of purchase in 2001. Individuals were identified using the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ) Dealer's Record of Sale (DROS) database, which retains information on all legal handgun transfers in the state. Exposures The primary exposure was DUI conviction prior to the first handgun purchase in 2001, as recorded in the CA DOJ Criminal History Information System. Main Outcomes and Measures Prespecified outcomes included arrests for violent crimes listed in the Crime Index published by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault), firearm-related violent crimes, and any violent crimes. Results Of the study population (N=79 678), 91.0% were males and 68.9% were white individuals; the median age was 34 (range, 21-49) years. The analytic sample for multivariable models included 78 878 purchasers after exclusions. Compared with purchasers who had no prior criminal history, those with prior DUI convictions and no other criminal history were at increased risk of arrest for a Crime Index-listed violent crime (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 2.6; 95% CI, 1.7-4.1), a firearm-related violent crime (AHR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.3-6.4), and any violent crime (AHR, 3.3; 95% CI, 2.4-4.5). Among purchasers with a history of arrests or convictions for crimes other than DUI, associations specifically with DUI conviction remained. Conclusions and Relevance This study's findings suggest that prior DUI convictions may be associated with the risk of subsequent violence, including firearm-related violence, among legal purchasers of handguns. Although the magnitude was diminished, the risk associated with DUI conviction remained elevated even among those with a history of arrests or convictions for crimes of other types.

Intimate partner violence is a major public health problem in the US. Both firearms and alcohol have been documented to contribute to the risk and severity of this violence. Yet there has been little research examining the nexus of the two risk factors. This study sought to determine whether alcohol-related problems, as indicated by a history of conviction for offenses such as driving under the influence (DUI), were associated with risk for future intimate partner violence among authorized purchasers of handguns in California. Using a longitudinal cohort design, we found that purchasers with prior DUI convictions (and no other criminal history) had close to three times the risk of subsequent arrest for an intimate partner violence offense than did those with no criminal history at the time of the index firearm purchase. The regulation of firearm ownership among people with alcohol use problems may represent an important opportunity to reduce intimate partner violence and the escalation of firearm-related harm.

Firearm violence frequently involves alcohol, but there are no studies of misuse of alcohol and risk for future violence among firearm owners. We examined the association between prior convictions for alcohol-related crimes, chiefly driving under the influence (DUI), and risk of subsequent arrest among 4066 individuals who purchased handguns in California in 1977. During follow-up through 1991, 32.8% of those with prior alcohol-related convictions and 5.7% of those with no prior criminal history were arrested for a violent or firearm-related crime; 15.9% and 2.7%, respectively, were arrested for murder, rape, robbery or aggravated assault. Prior alcohol-related convictions were associated with a fourfold to fivefold increase in risk of incident arrest for a violent or firearm-related crime, a relative increase greater than that seen for age, sex or prior violence. Prior convictions for alcohol-related crime may be an important predictor of risk for future criminal activity among purchasers of firearms.