Summary This study prospectively evaluates whether a previously established adverse outcome score (the Geneva prognostic score) predicts 3 and 12‐month overall mortality among the patients diagnosed with pulmonary embolism (PE) by a CT pulmonary angiogram (CTPA). Five hundred twenty‐three consecutive patients who had CTPA for suspected PE were recruited prospectively from March 2003 to October 2004. The Geneva prognostic score was calculated for all patients. Twelve‐month follow up was completed in all patients in December 2005. There were 105 patients diagnosed with PE. The mean score was 2.71 (standard deviation (SD) 1.25) for those patients who had died ( n = 7) and 1.14 (SD 1.19) for those patients who were alive ( n = 98) at 3‐month follow up ( P < 0.001). The mean scores were 2.69 (SD 0.95) for those who had died ( n = 13) and 1.04 (SD 1.15) for those patients who were alive ( n = 92) at 12‐month follow up ( P < 0.001). At 3‐month follow up, among the 88 patients with a score of 2 or less, three patients (3.4%) died and among 17 patients with a score of greater than 2, four patients (23.5%) died ( P = 0.01). At 12‐month follow up, five patients (5.7%) with a score of 2 or less died and eight patients (47.1%) with a score of three or more died ( P < 0.0001). The Geneva prognostic score stratifies patients with low and high risk for overall mortality at 3 and 12 months among patients diagnosed with PE by CTPA.

BACKGROUND:Accurate diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE) is essential and it is not clear whether a computed tomography pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) could be used as a stand-alone imaging investigation. The aim of the study was to test the accuracy of the clinical outcome of a negative CTPA as a stand-alone imaging investigation to exclude PE.METHODS:Five hundred and thirty-four consecutive patients who had a CTPA for diagnosis or exclusion of PE were recruited from March 2003 to October 2004. Four hundred and ninety-four patients had a helical CTPA as a stand-alone imaging investigation for diagnosis or exclusion of PE. A 3-month post-CTPA follow up was carried out in all patients to establish the clinical outcome accuracy of a negative CTPA as a stand-alone imaging investigation.RESULTS:There were 387 (78.3%) negative and 107 (21.7%) positive CTPA examinations. The average age of the patients was 57.16 years (standard deviation 18.57). Among those with a negative CTPA who survived, one patient had deep vein thrombosis and 342 patients had no evidence of an episode of venous thromboembolism or PE at the 3-month follow up. Thirty-eight patients died within the 3-month follow-up period and one patient's death was attributed to suspected PE. The negative predictive value of a CTPA is 99.5% (95% confidence interval 98.1-99.9%).CONCLUSION:Helical negative CTPA examination excludes clinically significant PE as a stand-alone imaging investigation. Where concurrent deep vein thrombosis is suspected, lower limb needs to be imaged by ultrasound if the CTPA is negative.

Over the last decade, contrast-enhanced spiral CT has been established as a non-invasive alternative to catheter angiography and is now regarded as the first-line imaging investigation for the diagnosis of pulmonary embolism (PE). The reported sensitivities for the diagnosis of PE of spiral CT vary from 45 to 100% and the specificities vary from 78 to 100%. Prospective outcome studies have shown a high negative predictive value for a single-detector spiral CT for PE. Patients' outcomes were not adversely affected in these studies when anticoagulation was withheld after a negative CT pulmonary angiogram. The main limitation of single-detector spiral CT has been its limited ability to detect isolated subsegmental PE. However, multidetector spiral CT allows evaluation of pulmonary vessels down to sixth-order branches and significantly increases the rate of detection of PE in segmental and subsegmental levels. The interobserver correlations for diagnosis of subsegmental PE with multidetector spiral CT exceed the reproducibility of selective pulmonary angiography. If appropriate equipment is available (multidetector CT), then CT pulmonary angiogram is safe to be used as the first-line imaging investigation for the diagnosis of PE.

This is a retrospective study to determine the accuracy and safety of a negative CT pulmonary angiogram (CTPA) based on clinical outcome and to determine the usefulness of a negative D-dimer assay before CTPA. A total of 483 patients with a negative CTPA study were followed up for 3 months, with the aim of detecting episodes of venous thromboembolism and mortality. Three hundred and forty-nine patients had an immunochromatographic D-dimer assay called 'Simplify', carried out before a CTPA examination. Seventy-eight patients had a negative D-dimer assay and a negative CTPA. Three patients had a negative D-dimer assay and a positive CTPA. All three patients had a moderate pretest clinical probability. Of the 483 patients who had a negative CTPA and a 3-month follow up, 444 (92%) were alive and 39 (8%) had died. Of the 444 patients who were alive, none had any further suspected episode of thromboembolism or had received anticoagulation therapy within the follow-up period. Of those who died, none of the deaths was thought to be as a result of pulmonary embolism (PE). Single-detector helical CT can be used safely as the primary diagnostic test to evaluate PE. Negative Simplify D-dimer assay and low pretest clinical probability exclude CTPA-detectable PE, and a CTPA is unnecessary in this cohort of patients.

AIMS:To identify variation in the management of -community-acquired pneumonia between two New Zealand hospitals and the factors that may account for any differences.METHODS:A 12-month, prospective two-centre study was conducted. Between July 1999 and July 2000, 474 adult patients with community-acquired pneumonia were enrolled: 304 in Christchurch Hospital and 170 in Waikato Hospital. The patients were similar in age, sex, prior antibiotic use and comorbidity. There was no significant difference in the clinical outcomes for the patients at the two centres.RESULTS:The mean duration of i.v. antibiotic therapy was 1.7 versus 3.0 days (P < 0.001) and length of stay (LOS) was 3.0 versus 5.9 days (P < 0.001) for Waikato and Christchurch Hospitals, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, we could account for 61% of the observed variation in LOS. Duration of i.v. antibiotic therapy independently accounted for 16% of variation in LOS compared with age (2%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, duration of fever, intensive care unit admission and centre of admission (all <1%). For the duration of i.v. antibiotics, centre of admission, largely reflecting clinician practice at each centre, independently accounted for 13% of variation, compared with duration of fever (5%), admission to the Intensive Care Unit (4%), Pneumonia Severity Index score (3%) and bacteraemia (3%).CONCLUSION:Of the identifiable factors, variations in clinician behaviour outweighed the influence of patient factors on the duration of i.v. antibiotic therapy, which in turn was the major determinant of LOS for patients hospitalised with community-acquired pneumonia. An early switch from i.v. to oral antibiotic therapy in conjunction with early discharge planning may significantly reduce LOS without compromising patient outcomes.

Background: In the assessment of severity in community acquired pneumonia ( CAP), the modified British Thoracic Society (mBTS) rule identifies patients with severe pneumonia but not patients who might be suitable for home management. A multicentre study was conducted to derive and validate a practical severity assessment model for stratifying adults hospitalised with CAP into different management groups.Methods: Data from three prospective studies of CAP conducted in the UK, New Zealand, and the Netherlands were combined. A derivation cohort comprising 80% of the data was used to develop the model. Prognostic variables were identified using multiple logistic regression with 30 day mortality as the outcome measure. The final model was tested against the validation cohort.Results: 1068 patients were studied ( mean age 64 years, 51.5% male, 30 day mortality 9%). Age greater than or equal to 65 years ( OR 3.5, 95% CI 1.6 to 8.0) and albumin < 30 g/dl ( OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.5 to 8.7) were independently associated with mortality over and above the mBTS rule ( OR 5.2, 95% CI 2.7 to 10). A six point score, one point for each of Confusion, Urea > 7 mmol/l, Respiratory rate greater than or equal to30/min, low systolic(< 90 mm Hg) or diastolic (<= 60 mm Hg) Blood pressure), age >= 65 years ( CURB- 65 score) based on information available at initial hospital assessment, enabled patients to be stratified according to increasing risk of mortality: score 0, 0.7%; score 1, 3.2%; score 2, 3%; score 3, 17%; score 4, 41.5% and score 5, 57%. The validation cohort confirmed a similar pattern.Conclusions: A simple six point score based on confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age can be used to stratify patients with CAP into different management groups.

Aims. To prospectively record current epidemiology and microbiology of community-acquired pneumonia in two New Zealand centres.Methods. Between July 1999 and 2000 all adults admitted to Christchurch and Waikato Hospitals with community-acquired pneumonia were screened for study inclusion. All those enrolled had their medical history, clinical variables, inpatient management and clinical outcomes recorded and standardised microbial diagnostic testing carried out.Results. 474 participants were enrolled with a mean age of 64 years and a microbial diagnosis was made in 197 cases (42%). Streptococcus pneumoniae (14%), Haemophilus influenzae (10%) and Influenza A virus (7%), Legionella spp (4%) and Mycoplasma pneumoniae (3%) were the most commonly isolated organisms. An 'atypical' organism was diagnosed in 8% of cases compared to 30% and 23% in previous Christchurch and Waikato studies respectively. Fourteen of the 67 S pneumoniae isolates (21%) had reduced susceptibility to penicillin, all with a MIC less than or equal to 2 mug/mL, a level of reduced susceptibility not associated with worse patient outcomes. Clinical outcome included a mean hospital stay of 6.7 days and a 6 week mortality of 6%.Conclusion. Although S pneumoniae was the most commonly isolated organism in this study there have been significant changes in the prevalence of atypical organisms since previous surveys. Ongoing surveillance of antibiotic resistance and variations in the prevalence of organisms causing community-acquired pneumonia is required to guide clinicians' empiric antibiotic use.

Immigrants and visitors are a significant factor in the epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB) in New Zealand, accounting for an increasing proportion of notifications in recent years. At present screening of immigrants from countries with a high incidence of TB is inadequate. There are deficiencies in procedures, inadequate screening coverage, ineffectual coordination between the Ministry of Health and New Zealand Immigration Service, incomplete follow-up on those at risk of TB, confusion over financial responsibility, inadequate data to describe the problems and monitor interventions, and a lack of commitment to assistance with TB control in neighbouring countries from which some of our TB arises. We make recommendations in all of these areas. Timely screening of high-risk immigrants should be seen as health protection for ethnic minorities.