The selective landscape that gave rise to Earth’s species has shifted in the Anthropocene. Humans have accelerated extinction pressures, making efforts to detect general non-random patterns of extinction increasingly important. Much research has focused on detecting which traits make some species more likely to go extinct, such as large body size and slow reproductive rate in animals, limited dispersal in vascular plants, and narrow habitat requirements in cacti. However, general models for such non-random extinction are lacking. Here, we adapt the three general models of natural selection to classify non-random extinction as directional, disruptive, or stabilizing extinction. We develop a quantitative method for testing which general extinction model best describes observed data and apply it to the Caribbean lizard genus Leiocephalus as a case study. We surveyed the literature for recorded last occurrence for extinct and threat status for extant species. Eight species have gone extinct and ten are predicted to go extinct soon. Past extinctions in Leiocephalus showed directional extinction of large bodied species, while future-predicted extinctions exhibited a more complex extinction model similar to both random and stabilizing extinction with respect to body size. Similarly, future-predicted extinctions exhibited stabilizing extinction with respect to limb and tail lengths. Lizards with either very long or very short appendages are most likely to go extinct in the future. This shift from directional to stabilizing extinction for Leiocephalus is consistent with hunting, introduced predators, and habitat loss that first increased extinction pressure on the largest species and then extinction pressure on species that deviate from an adaptive peak centered on a generalist ground-lizard body plan. As adaptive optima shift in the Anthropocene, general models of non-random extinction are essential to developing a mature strategy for future successful conservation efforts.

Economic impacts from plant pests are often felt at the regional scale, yet some impacts expand to the global scale through the alignment of a pest’s invasion potentials. Such globally invasive species (i.e., paninvasives) are like the human pathogens that cause pandemics. Like pandemics, assessing paninvasion risk for an emerging regional pest is key for stakeholders to take early actions that avoid market disruption. Here, we develop the paninvasion severity assessment framework and use it to assess a rapidly spreading regional U.S. grape pest, the spotted lanternfly planthopper (Lycorma delicatula; SLF), to spread and disrupt the global wine market. We found that SLF invasion potentials are aligned globally because important viticultural regions with suitable environments for SLF establishment also heavily trade with invaded U.S. states. If the U.S. acts as an invasive bridgehead, Italy, France, Spain, and other important wine exporters are likely to experience the next SLF introductions. Risk to the global wine market is high unless stakeholders work to reduce SLF invasion potentials in the U.S. and globally.

Global impacts of invasive insect pests cost billions of dollars annually, but the impact of any individual pest species depends on the strength of associations with economically important plant hosts. Estimating host associations for a pest requires surveillance field surveys that observe pest association on plant species within an invaded area. However, field surveys often miss rare hosts and cannot observe associations with plants found outside the invaded range. Associations for these plants instead are estimated with experimental assays such as controlled feeding trials, which are time consuming and for which few candidate hosts can be tested logistically. For emerging generalist pests, these methods are unable to rapidly produce estimates for the hundreds of potential suitable hosts that the pest will encounter as it spreads within newly invaded regions. In such cases, association data from these existing methods can be statistically leveraged to impute unknown associations. Here we use phylogenetic imputation to estimate potential host associations in an emergent generalist forest pest in the U.S., the spotted lanternfly ( Lycorma delicatula ; SLF). Phylogenetic imputation works when closely related plants have similar association strengths, termed phylogenetic signal in host association, which is common in phytophagous insects. We first aggregated known SLF host associations from published studies. Existing research has estimated association strengths for 144 species across both the invaded and native range of SLF. These known associations exhibited phylogenetic signal. We then developed two protocols that combined known host association data and fit phylogenetic imputation models based on hidden state prediction algorithms to estimate association strength for 569 candidate tree species found across the continental U.S. Of candidate species considered, 255 are predicted to have strong associations with SLF in the U.S. and can be found in several clades including Juglandaceae, Rutaceae, Salicaceae, and Sapindaceae. Uninvaded regions with the highest numbers of these strongly associated species include midwestern and west coast states such as Illinois and California. Survey efforts for SLF should be focused on these regions and predicted species, which should also be prioritized in experimental assays. Phylogenetic imputation scales up existing host association data, and the protocols we present here can be readily adapted to inform surveillance and management efforts for other invasive generalist plant pests.

The ENMTools software package was introduced in 2008 as a platform for making measurements on environmental niche models (ENMs, frequently referred to as species distribution models or SDMs), and for using those measurements in the context of newly developed Monte Carlo tests to evaluate hypotheses regarding niche evolution. Additional functionality was later added for model selection and simulation from ENMs, and the software package has been quite widely used. ENMTools was initially implemented as a Perl script, which was also compiled into an executable file for various platforms. However, the package had a number of significant limitations; it was only designed to fit models using Maxent, it relied on a specific Perl distribution to function, and its internal structure made it difficult to maintain and expand. Subsequently, the R programming language became the platform of choice for most ENM studies, making ENMTools less usable for many practitioners. Here we introduce a new R version of ENMTools that implements much of the functionality of its predecessor as well as numerous additions that simplify the construction, comparison and evaluation of niche models. These additions include new metrics for model fit, methods of measuring ENM overlap, and methods for testing evolutionary hypotheses. The new version of ENMTools is also designed to work within the expanding universe of R tools for ecological biogeography, and as such includes greatly simplified interfaces for analyses from several other R packages.

We describe a new digitless scincid lizard of the genus Brachymeles from northern Luzon and Camiguin Norte islands in the Philippines. This species belongs to the Brachymeles bonitae Complex, and both molecular and morphological data confirm that this species is distinct from all other congeners. Formerly considered to be a single widespread species, this group of species has been the focus of recent systematic reviews. Here we describe a new species in the B. bonitae Complex, recognized currently to constitute five species. Brachymeles ilocandia sp. nov. is the second digitless and the seventeenth non-pentadactyl species in genus. The description of this species brings the total number of species in the genus to 40, and provides new insight into unique distribution patterns of species of the northern Philippines.

We describe a new digitless scincid lizard of the genus Brachymeles from northern Luzon and Camiguin Norte islands in the Philippines. This species belongs to the Brachymeles bonitae Complex, and both molecular and morphological data confirm that this species is distinct from all other congeners. Formerly considered to be a single widespread species, this group of species has been the focus of recent systematic reviews. Here we describe a new species in the B. bonitae Complex, recognized currently to constitute five species. Brachymeles ilocandia sp. nov. is the second digitless and the seventeenth non-pentadactyl species in genus. The description of this species brings the total number of species in the genus to 40, and provides new insight into unique distribution patterns of species of the northern Philippines.

We describe a new digitless scincid lizard of the genus Brachymeles from northern Luzon and Camiguin Norte islands in the Philippines. This species belongs to the Brachymeles bonitae Complex, and both molecular and morphological data confirm that this species is distinct from all other congeners. Formerly considered to be a single widespread species, this group of species has been the focus of recent systematic reviews. Here we describe a new species in the B. bonitae Complex, recognized currently to constitute five species. Brachymeles ilocandia sp. nov. is the second digitless and the seventeenth non-pentadactyl species in genus. The description of this species brings the total number of species in the genus to 40, and provides new insight into unique distribution patterns of species of the northern Philippines.

We describe a new digitless scincid lizard of the genus Brachymeles from northern Luzon and Camiguin Norte islands in the Philippines. This species belongs to the Brachymeles bonitae Complex, and both molecular and morphological data confirm that this species is distinct from all other congeners. Formerly considered to be a single widespread species, this group of species has been the focus of recent systematic reviews. Here we describe a new species in the B. bonitae Complex, recognized currently to constitute five species. Brachymeles ilocandia sp. nov. is the second digitless and the seventeenth non-pentadactyl species in genus. The description of this species brings the total number of species in the genus to 40, and provides new insight into unique distribution patterns of species of the northern Philippines.

We describe a new digitless scincid lizard of the genus Brachymeles from northern Luzon and Camiguin Norte islands in the Philippines. This species belongs to the Brachymeles bonitae Complex, and both molecular and morphological data confirm that this species is distinct from all other congeners. Formerly considered to be a single widespread species, this group of species has been the focus of recent systematic reviews. Here we describe a new species in the B. bonitae Complex, recognized currently to constitute five species. Brachymeles ilocandia sp. nov. is the second digitless and the seventeenth non-pentadactyl species in genus. The description of this species brings the total number of species in the genus to 40, and provides new insight into unique distribution patterns of species of the northern Philippines.

Recent investigations into the species diversity of false geckos (genus Pseudogekko Taylor) have revealed several cryptic species, highlighting the need for a more thorough understanding of diversity within this enigmatic genus of endemic Philippine geckos. Newly available genetic data reveal that two of the four currently recognized species are complexes of multiple deeply divergent evolutionary lineages. In this paper we evaluate species diversity in one of these complexes, P. brevipes Boettger, and describe one additional new species. For nearly a century, P. brevipes has been recognized as a single, “widespread” species with a geographic range spanning two major faunal regions and several island groups. Poor understanding of this species has persisted due to both limited sampling and its apparent rarity. We evaluate both morphological and genetic data to define species limits in P. brevipes, and find character-based evidence to justify the recognition of two unique evolutionary lineages, one of which we describe as a new species (P. atiorum sp. nov.). The species included in this study have allopatric distributions and differ from congeners by numerous diagnostic characters of external morphology, and therefore should be recognized as full species in accordance with lineage-based species concepts. This newly described species increases the total number of species of Pseudogekko to seven.

Recent investigations into the species diversity of false geckos (genus Pseudogekko Taylor) have revealed several cryptic species, highlighting the need for a more thorough understanding of diversity within this enigmatic genus of endemic Philippine geckos. Newly available genetic data reveal that two of the four currently recognized species are complexes of multiple deeply divergent evolutionary lineages. In this paper we evaluate species diversity in one of these complexes, P. brevipes Boettger, and describe one additional new species. For nearly a century, P. brevipes has been recognized as a single, “widespread” species with a geographic range spanning two major faunal regions and several island groups. Poor understanding of this species has persisted due to both limited sampling and its apparent rarity. We evaluate both morphological and genetic data to define species limits in P. brevipes, and find character-based evidence to justify the recognition of two unique evolutionary lineages, one of which we describe as a new species (P. atiorum sp. nov.). The species included in this study have allopatric distributions and differ from congeners by numerous diagnostic characters of external morphology, and therefore should be recognized as full species in accordance with lineage-based species concepts. This newly described species increases the total number of species of Pseudogekko to seven.

Recent investigations into the species diversity of false geckos (genus Pseudogekko Taylor) have revealed several cryptic species, highlighting the need for a more thorough understanding of diversity within this enigmatic genus of endemic Philippine geckos. Newly available genetic data reveal that two of the four currently recognized species are complexes of multiple deeply divergent evolutionary lineages. In this paper we evaluate species diversity in one of these complexes, P. brevipes Boettger, and describe one additional new species. For nearly a century, P. brevipes has been recognized as a single, "widespread" species with a geographic range spanning two major faunal regions and several island groups. Poor understanding of this species has persisted due to both limited sampling and its apparent rarity. We evaluate both morphological and genetic data to define species limits in P. brevipes, and find character-based evidence to justify the recognition of two unique evolutionary lineages, one of which we describe as a new species (P. atiorum sp. nov.). The species included in this study have allopatric distributions and differ from congeners by numerous diagnostic characters of external morphology, and therefore should be recognized as full species in accordance with lineage-based species concepts. This newly described species increases the total number of species of Pseudogekko to seven.

Recent investigations into the species diversity of false geckos (genus Pseudogekko Taylor) have revealed several cryptic species, highlighting the need for a more thorough understanding of diversity within this enigmatic genus of endemic Philippine geckos. Newly available genetic data reveal that two of the four currently recognized species are complexes of multiple deeply divergent evolutionary lineages. In this paper we evaluate species diversity in one of these complexes, P. brevipes Boettger, and describe one additional new species. For nearly a century, P. brevipes has been recognized as a single, "widespread" species with a geographic range spanning two major faunal regions and several island groups. Poor understanding of this species has persisted due to both limited sampling and its apparent rarity. We evaluate both morphological and genetic data to define species limits in P. brevipes, and find character-based evidence to justify the recognition of two unique evolutionary lineages, one of which we describe as a new species (P. atiorum sp. nov.). The species included in this study have allopatric distributions and differ from congeners by numerous diagnostic characters of external morphology, and therefore should be recognized as full species in accordance with lineage-based species concepts. This newly described species increases the total number of species of Pseudogekko to seven.