Background: Universal vaccination against rotavirus was included in the funded Australian National Immunisation Program in July 2007. Predictive cost-effectiveness models assessed the program before introduction.Methods: We conducted a retrospective economic evaluation of the Australian rotavirus program using national level post-implementation data on vaccine uptake, before-after measures of program impact and published estimates of excess intussusception cases. These data were used as inputs into a multi cohort compartmental model which assigned cost and quality of life estimates to relevant health states, adopting a healthcare payer perspective. The primary outcome was discounted cost per quality adjusted life year gained, including or excluding unspecified acute gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalisations.Results: Relative to the baseline period (1997-2006), over the 6 years (2007-2012) after implementation of the rotavirus program, we estimated that 77,000 hospitalisations (17,000 coded rotavirus and 60,000 unspecified AGE) and 3 deaths were prevented, compared with an estimated excess of 78 cases of intussusception. Approximately 90% of hospitalisations prevented were in children <5 years, with evidence of herd protection in older age groups. The program was cost-saving when observed changes (declines) in both hospitalisations coded as rotavirus and as unspecified AGE were attributed to the rotavirus vaccine program. The adverse impact of estimated excess cases of intussusception was far outweighed by the benefits of the program.Conclusion: The inclusion of herd impact and declines in unspecified AGE hospitalisations resulted in the value for money achieved by the Australian rotavirus immunisation program being substantially greater than predicted by pre-implementation models, despite the potential increased cases of intussusception. This Australian experience is likely to be relevant to high-income countries yet to implement rotavirus vaccination programs. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

It is important to assess the impact a vaccination programme has on the burden of disease after it is implemented. For example, this may reveal herd immunity effects or vaccine-induced shifts in the incidence of disease or in circulating strains or serotypes of the pathogen. In this article we summarise the key features of infectious diseases that need to be considered when trying to detect any changes in the burden of diseases at a population level as a result of vaccination efforts. We outline the challenges of using routine surveillance databases to monitor infectious diseases, such as the identification of diseased cases and the availability of vaccination status for cases. We highlight the complexities in modelling the underlying patterns in infectious disease rates (e.g. presence of autocorrelation) and discuss the main statistical methods that can be used to control for periodicity (e.g. seasonality) and autocorrelation when assessing the impact of vaccination programmes on burden of disease (e.g. cosinor terms, generalised additive models, autoregressive processes and moving averages). For some analyses, there may be multiple methods that can be used, but it is important for authors to justify the method chosen and discuss any limitations. We present a case study review of the statistical methods used in the literature to assess the rotavirus vaccination programme impact in Australia. The methods used varied and included generalised linear models and descriptive statistics. Not all studies accounted for autocorrelation and seasonality, which can have a major influence on results. We recommend that future analyses consider the strength and weakness of alternative statistical methods and justify their choice.

Introduction: Despite the widespread availability of clinical guidelines, considerable gaps remain between the care that is recommended (appropriate care) and the care provided. This protocol describes a research methodology to develop clinical indicators for appropriate care for common paediatric conditions.Methods and analysis: We will identify conditions amenable to population-level appropriateness of care research and develop clinical indicators for each condition. Candidate conditions have been identified from published research; burden of disease, prevalence and frequency of presentation data; and quality of care priority lists. Clinical indicators will be developed through searches of national and international guidelines, and formatted with explicit criteria for inclusion, exclusion, time frame and setting. Experts will review the indicators using a wiki-based approach and modified Delphi process. A formative evaluation of the wiki process will be undertaken.Ethics and dissemination: Human Research Ethics Committee approvals have been received from Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Children's Health Queensland Hospital and Health Service, and the Women's and Children's Health Network (South Australia). Applications are under review with Macquarie University and the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. We will submit the results of the study to relevant journals and offer national and international presentations.

Introduction: Australian and international clinical practice guidelines are available for common paediatric conditions. Yet there is evidence that there are substantial variations between the guidelines, recommendations (appropriate care) and the care delivered. This paper describes a study protocol to determine the appropriateness of the healthcare delivered to Australian children for 16 common paediatric conditions in acute and primary healthcare settings.Methods and analysis: A random sample of 6000-8000 medical records representing a cross-section of the Australian paediatric population will be reviewed for appropriateness of care against a set of indicators within three Australian states (New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia) using multistage, stratified sampling. Medical records of children aged <16 years who presented with at least one of the study conditions during 2012 and 2013 will be reviewed.Ethics and dissemination: Human Research Ethics Committee approvals have been received from the Sydney Children's Hospital Network, Children's Health Queensland Hospital and Health Service and Women's and Children's Hospital Network (South Australia). An application is under review for the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. The authors will submit the results of the study to relevant journals and offer oral presentations to researchers, clinicians and policymakers at national and international conferences.

BACKGROUND: Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting.METHODS: This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories.RESULTS: A total of 79,807 adult (>= 16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low-and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve.CONCLUSION: We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. Copyright (C) 2014 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

Fazit Bereits bei einem Blutdruck von 110 mmHg erhöht sich die Mortalität bei Patienten mit einem SHT. Dies deutet darauf hin, dass bereits ein leicht erniedrigter Blutdruck zu vermehrten sekundären Hirnschädigungen führt. Die Autoren empfehlen einen Wert von 120 mmHg während der Wiederbelebungsmaßnahmen in der Notaufnahme anzustreben. Geltende Leitlinien zur Behandlung von SHT, die den Grenzwert für Hypotension bei 90 mmHg festlegen, müssen überarbeitet werden.

Introduction Low systolic blood pressure (SBP) is an important secondary insult following traumatic brain injury (TBI), but its exact relationship with outcome is not well characterised. Although a SBP of <90 mmHg represents the threshold for hypotension in consensus TBI treatment guidelines, recent studies suggest redefining hypotension at higher levels. This study therefore aimed to fully characterise the association between admission SBP and mortality to further inform resuscitation endpoints. Methods We conducted a multicentre cohort study using data from the largest European trauma registry. Consecutive adult patients with AIS head scores >2 admitted directly to specialist neuroscience centres between 2005 and July 2012 were studied. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to examine the association between admission SBP and 30 day inpatient mortality. Models were adjusted for confounders including age, severity of injury, and to account for differential quality of hospital care. Results 5057 patients were included in complete case analyses. Admission SBP demonstrated a smooth u-shaped association with outcome in a bivariate analysis, with increasing mortality at both lower and higher values, and no evidence of any threshold effect. Adjusting for confounding slightly attenuated the association between mortality and SBP at levels <120 mmHg, and abolished the relationship for higher SBP values. Case-mix adjusted odds of death were 1.5 times greater at <120 mmHg, doubled at <100 mmHg, tripled at <90 mmHg, and six times greater at SBP < 70 mmHg, p < 0.01. Conclusions These findings indicate that TBI studies should model SBP as a continuous variable and may suggest that current TBI treatment guidelines, using a cut-off for hypotension at SBP < 90 mmHg, should be reconsidered.

Objective To examine whether or not acute dysglycemia predicts an adverse outcome in subjects with community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Participants 6,891 CAP patients with community acquired pneumonia included in the prospective German CAP Competence Network (CAPNETZ) study between 2003 and 2009. Main outcome measures Uni- and multivariable hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for gender, age, body mass index (BMI), current smoking status, CRB-65 and various co-morbidities for 28-, 90-, and 180-day mortality of CAP were calculated according to serum glucose levels on admission. Results In patients without known diabetes , an elevated glucose level at admission was an independent predictor of 28-, 90- and 180-day mortality in CAP. As compared to individuals with normal glucose levels on admission, subjects with mild acute hyperglycemia (glucose on admission 6–<11 mmol/L) had a significantly increased HR for death at 90 days (1.55; 95%CI: 1.18 to 2.04; P<0.001), which increased to 6.04 (95%CI: 4.18–8.74; P<0.001) if admission glucose levels were ≥14 mmol/L. In sensitivity analyses the predictive value of admission glucose levels was confirmed for short- (28 days) and long-term mortality (180 days). Patients with previously diagnosed diabetes had an increased overall mortality as compared to patients without diabetes (crude HR 2.47 95%CI 2.05 to 2.98; P<0.001). This outcome was not significantly affected by admission glucose levels (P=0.18). Conclusions Admission glucose levels predict an adverse outcome in CAP in patients without known diabetes. Hence, acute hyperglycemia may identify patients in particular need of intensified care to reduce mortality in CAP.

Objective To examine whether acute dysglycaemia predicts death in people admitted to hospital with community acquired pneumonia. Design Multicentre prospective cohort study. Setting Hospitals and private practices in Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Participants 6891 patients with community acquired pneumonia included in the German community acquired pneumonia competence network (CAPNETZ) study between 2003 and 2009. Main outcome measures Univariable and multivariable hazard ratios adjusted for sex, age, current smoking status, severity of community acquired pneumonia using the CRB-65 score (confusion, respiratory rate >30/min, systolic blood pressure ≤90 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≤60 mm Hg, and age ≥65 years), and various comorbidities for death at 28, 90, and 180 days according to serum glucose levels on admission. Results An increased serum glucose level at admission to hospital in participants with community acquired pneumonia and no pre-existing diabetes was a predictor of death at 28 and 90 days. Compared with participants with normal serum glucose levels on admission, those with mild acute hyperglycaemia (serum glucose concentration 6-10.99 mmol/L) had a significantly increased risk of death at 90 days (1.56, 95% confidence interval 1.22 to 2.01; P<0.001), and this risk increased to 2.37 (1.62 to 3.46; P<0.001) when serum glucose concentrations were ≥14 mmol/L. In sensitivity analyses the predictive value of serum glucose levels on admission for death was confirmed at 28 days and 90 days. Patients with pre-existing diabetes had a significantly increased overall mortality compared with those without diabetes (crude hazard ratio 2.47, 95% confidence interval 2.05 to 2.98; P<0.001). This outcome was not significantly affected by serum glucose levels on admission (P=0.18 for interaction). Conclusions Serum glucose levels on admission to hospital can predict death in patients with community acquired pneumonia without pre-existing diabetes. Acute hyperglycaemia may therefore identify patients in need of intensified care to reduce the risk of death from community acquired pneumonia.

Background: Administrative or population health datasets (PHDS) are increasingly being used for research related to maternal and infant health. However, the accuracy and completeness of the information in the PHDS is important to ensure validity of the results of this research.Objective: To compile and review studies that validate the reporting of conditions and procedures related to pregnancy, childbirth, and newborns and provide a tool of reference for researchers.Methods: A systematic search was conducted of Medline and EMBASE databases to find studies that validated routinely collected datasets containing diagnoses and procedures related to pregnancy, childbirth, and newborns. To be included datasets had to be validated against a gold standard, such as review of medical records, maternal interview or survey, specialized register, or laboratory data. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), and/or kappa statistic for each diagnosis or procedure code were calculated.Results: Forty-three validation studies were included. Under-enumeration was common, with the level of ascertainment increasing as time from diagnosis/procedure to birth decreased. Most conditions and procedures had high specificities indicating few false positives, and procedures were more accurately reported than diagnoses. Hospital discharge data were generally more accurate than birth data, however identifying cases from more than 1 dataset further increased ascertainment.Conclusions: This comprehensive collection of validation studies summarizing the quality of perinatal population data will be an invaluable resource to all researchers working with PHDS.

The planning and delivery of care systems require knowledge on the ways in which individuals access available services that are funded by a range of health and community services. The aims of this study were to identify distinct groups of Home and Community Care (HACC) clients in New South Wales, Australia, based on patterns of actual service use, and to understand the health and social needs and resources of client groups that access different mixes of services. Multiple data sets linked at the individual level - including the 45 and Up Study community survey, the HACC Minimum Data Set and the Admitted Patient Data Collection for hospitals - provide an innovative basis to investigate the complexity of access to service use. Data were collected between 2006 and 2008. A cluster analysis based on clients' type and volume of community service use was conducted on the 4890 HACC clients in the linked dataset and nine distinct clusters of clients were identified. Three of these clusters were considered 'complex', in terms of the range of community and hospital assistance received, while the others comprised mainly of one or two dominant service types. The analytical approach and findings developed here provide a client-centred approach to monitor and evaluate access to local service systems that are being reformed to better integrate the delivery of health and community services currently funded and managed separately by national and state governments.

Fact of death is not always available on data sets used for pharmacoepidemiological research. Proxies may be an appropriate substitute in the absence of death data. The purposes of this study were to validate a proxy for death in adult cancer patients and to assess its performance when estimating survival in two cohorts of cancer patients.

Public health recommendations for physical activity are operationalised by defining thresholds for frequency (sessions/week), duration (min/week), or volume (MET-min/week). This study compared estimates of meeting physical activity recommendations when scoring algorithms varied in specifications for frequency and duration but were comparable in volume. Data were obtained from 13,105 Australian adult respondents to the 2006 Exercise, Recreation and Sport Survey (ERASS). Prevalence estimates were calculated using algorithms defined by (i) frequency only (≥5 sessions/week); (ii) duration only (≥150 min/week); (iii) duration only when minutes of vigorous activity were weighted by 2 (≥150 weighted-min/week); (iv) frequency and duration (≥5 sessions/week, ≥150 min/week); (v) volume only (≥600 MET-min/week); and (vi) volume and frequency (≥600 MET-min/week, ≥5 sessions/week). The proportion of adults who met recommendations operationalised without a frequency requirement was twice the proportions obtained for algorithms with frequency requirements. Volume or duration-based algorithms yielded higher estimates for men than women, and for the younger age groups (<35 years) than the older groups, with the opposite observation for frequency-based algorithms. Consistent for all algorithms, people classified at the highest educational attainment had the highest prevalence of meeting recommendations. Agreement in achieving 600 MET-min/week when activities were categorised using activity-specific MET values versus median MET values was 98.3%. Prevalence rates based on 600 MET-min/week were similar to 150 weighted-min/week. In conclusion, varying frequency and duration requirements of scoring algorithms can yield different population estimates and patterns by population subgroup of physical activity for a health benefit.

The Kolling Institute of Medical Research, University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

BACKGROUND:There is little empirical evidence regarding the generalisability of relative risk estimates from studies which have relatively low response rates or are of limited representativeness. The aim of this study was to investigate variation in exposure-outcome relationships in studies of the same population with different response rates and designs by comparing estimates from the 45 and Up Study, a population-based cohort study (self-administered postal questionnaire, response rate 18%), and the New South Wales Population Health Survey (PHS) (computer-assisted telephone interview, response rate ~60%).METHODS:Logistic regression analysis of questionnaire data from 45 and Up Study participants (n = 101,812) and 2006/2007 PHS participants (n = 14,796) was used to calculate prevalence estimates and odds ratios (ORs) for comparable variables, adjusting for age, sex and remoteness. ORs were compared using Wald tests modelling each study separately, with and without sampling weights.RESULTS:Prevalence of some outcomes (smoking, private health insurance, diabetes, hypertension, asthma) varied between the two studies. For highly comparable questionnaire items, exposure-outcome relationship patterns were almost identical between the studies and ORs for eight of the ten relationships examined did not differ significantly. For questionnaire items that were only moderately comparable, the nature of the observed relationships did not differ materially between the two studies, although many ORs differed significantly.CONCLUSIONS:These findings show that for a broad range of risk factors, two studies of the same population with varying response rate, sampling frame and mode of questionnaire administration yielded consistent estimates of exposure-outcome relationships. However, ORs varied between the studies where they did not use identical questionnaire items.

Objective: To identify policy strategies that are perceived by researchers active in Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health as effective in increasing the amount of high-quality intervention research undertaken in this field.Design and setting: A cross-sectional study using a web-based survey was emailed to researchers based in clinical, public health and other academic institutions.Participants: Researchers who had published more than once in Aboriginal health between 1 January 2005 and 1 August 2009, based on a MEDLINE search.Main outcome measures: Participants selected and weighted 17 strategies that were, in their opinion, important for increasing the amount of high-quality intervention research being conducted in Aboriginal health.Results: We invited 157 researchers to complete the survey, and received 74 completed surveys. The most highly weighted strategies were: for research funding bodies to give funding priority to intervention research proposals that target Aboriginal populations (median weighted score, 15%); for peak bodies representing Aboriginal communities to clearly specify intervention research priorities in a national Aboriginal health research agenda (median weighted score, 10%); for research funding bodies to fund research to develop reliable measures of health for Aboriginal people (median weighted score, 9.5%); for health care organisations to participate more in intervention research targeting Aboriginal populations (median, 8.5%); and for research review panels to accept intervention research designs other than the randomised controlled trial (median weighted score, 8%).Conclusions: Researchers who are active in Aboriginal health research perceive that improvements in funding mechanisms, priority setting and research systems are required to increase the amount of high-quality intervention research being conducted in this field. A national intervention research agenda that encourages multidisciplinary research teams and community partnerships may offer a solution.

Background: Increasing rates of induction have been reported in the UK, the USA, Canada and Australia since the early 1990s; however, there is a lack of population‐based studies on trends and pharmacological management of induction of labour. Aims: To determine population trends in induction of labour and predictors of failed induction (in caesarean section, specifically for failure to progress with cervix dilation ≤3 cm). Methods: Trends in induction were determined for women in NSW who laboured at ≥ 32 weeks from 1998 to 2007 ( N = 739 904). To determine the predictors of failed induction, 92 359 deliveries of live singletons for whom linked birth and hospital data were available (2001–2005) were examined using logistic regression analysis. Results: The rate of induction increased over the decade from 25.3 to 29.1%; however, among those induced with prostaglandin alone, it decreased from 33.5 to 23.8%. Oxytocin alone was the most commonly used labour induction agent overall (51%) and in most population subgroups. The predictors of failed induction in both nullipara and multipara included increasing maternal age, pre‐term and post‐term birth and the use of prostaglandin or mechanical methods of induction (neither oxytocin nor prostaglandin). Conclusions: The pharmacological agents used for induction of labour have changed over the past decade. An important area for future research is to investigate how the dosage of oxytocin and prostaglandin affects pregnancy outcomes.