HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés. EvoEvo Deliverable 2.1 Guillaume Beslon, Paul Andrews, Carole Knibbe, Charles Rocabert

Computational and mathematical modelling has become a valuable tool for investigating biological systems. Modelling enables prediction of how biological components interact to deliver system-level properties and extrapolation of biological system performance to contexts and experimental conditions where this is unknown. A model's value hinges on knowing that it faithfully represents the biology under the contexts of use, or clearly ascertaining otherwise and thus motivating further model refinement. These qualities are evaluated through calibration, typically formulated as identifying model parameter values that align model and biological behaviours as measured through a metric applied to both. Calibration is critical to modelling but is often underappreciated. A failure to appropriately calibrate risks unrepresentative models that generate erroneous insights. Here, we review a suite of strategies to more rigorously challenge a model's representation of a biological system. All are motivated by features of biological systems, and illustrative examples are drawn from the modelling literature. We examine the calibration of a model against distributions of biological behaviours or outcomes, not only average values. We argue for calibration even where model parameter values are experimentally ascertained. We explore how single metrics can be non-distinguishing for complex systems, with multiple-component dynamic and interaction configurations giving rise to the same metric output. Under these conditions, calibration is insufficiently constraining and the model non-identifiable: multiple solutions to the calibration problem exist. We draw an analogy to curve fitting and argue that calibrating a biological model against a single experiment or context is akin to curve fitting against a single data point. Though useful for communicating model results, we explore how metrics that quantify heavily emergent properties may not be suitable for use in calibration. Lastly, we consider the role of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in calibration and the interpretation of model results. Our goal in this manuscript is to encourage a deeper consideration of calibration, and how to increase its capacity to either deliver faithful models or demonstrate them otherwise.

Cellular activation in trans by interferons, cytokines, and chemokines is a commonly recognized mechanism to amplify immune effector function and limit pathogen spread. However, an optimal host response also requires that collateral damage associated with inflammation is limited. This may be particularly so in the case of granulomatous inflammation, where an excessive number and/or excessively florid granulomas can have significant pathological consequences. Here, we have combined transcriptomics, agent-based modeling, and in vivo experimental approaches to study constraints on hepatic granuloma formation in a murine model of experimental leishmaniasis. We demonstrate that chemokine production by non-infected Kupffer cells in the Leishmania donovani-infected liver promotes competition with infected KCs for available iNKT cells, ultimately inhibiting the extent of granulomatous inflammation. We propose trans-activation for chemokine production as a novel broadly applicable mechanism that may operate early in infection to limit excessive focal inflammation.

This tutorial promotes good practice for exploring the rationale of systems pharmacology models. A safety systems engineering inspired notation approach provides much needed rigor and transparency in development and application of models for therapeutic discovery and design of intervention strategies. Structured arguments over a model's development, underpinning biological knowledge, and analyses of model behaviors are constructed to determine the confidence that a model is fit for the purpose for which it will be applied.

Through integrating real time imaging, computational modelling, and statistical analysis approaches, previous work has suggested that the induction of and response to cell adhesion factors is the key initiating pathway in early lymphoid tissue development, in contrast to the previously accepted view that the process is triggered by chemokine mediated cell recruitment. These model derived hypotheses were developed using spartan, an open-source sensitivity analysis toolkit designed to establish and understand the relationship between a computational model and the biological system that model captures. Here, we extend the functionality available in spartan to permit the production of statistical analyses that contrast the behavior exhibited by a computational model at various simulated time-points, enabling a temporal analysis that could suggest whether the influence of biological mechanisms changes over time. We exemplify this extended functionality by using the computational model of lymphoid tissue development as a time-lapse tool. By generating results at twelve-hour intervals, we show how the extensions to spartan have been used to suggest that lymphoid tissue development could be biphasic, and predict the time-point when a switch in the influence of biological mechanisms might occur.

Computational and mathematical modelling approaches are increasingly being adopted in attempts to further our understanding of complex biological systems. This approach can be subjected to strong criticism as substantial aspects of the biological system being captured are not currently known, meaning assumptions need to be made that could have a critical impact on simulation response. We have utilised the CoSMoS process in the development of an agent-based simulation of the formation of Peyer’s patches (PP), gut-associated lymphoid organs that have a key role in the initiation of adaptive immune responses to infection. Although the use of genetic tools, imaging technologies and ex vivo culture systems has provided significant insight into the cellular components and associated pathways involved in PP development, interesting questions remain that cannot be addressed using these approaches, and as such well justified assumptions have been introduced into our model to counter this. Here we focus not on the development of the model itself, but instead demonstrate how the resultant simulation can be used to assess how these assumptions impact the simulation response. For example, we consider the impact of our assumption that the migration rate of lymphoid tissue cells into the gut remains constant throughout PP development. We demonstrate that an analysis of the assumptions made in the construction of the domain model may either increase confidence in the model as a representation of the biological system it captures, or may suggest areas where further biological experimentation is required.

The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions.

Computational model for EvoEvo describing the design of the EvoEvo framework. Shows how the metamodel in D4.1 is instantiated.

Complex Systems Modelling and Simulation (CoSMoS) was a 4 year EPSRC funded research project at the Universities of York and Kent in the UK. As part of that project, the research team developed the CoSMoS approach to assist the building and use of fit-for-purpose computational simulations of complex systems, and initiated a series of international workshops to disseminate best practice in CoSMoS. This special issue brings together several authors from the first six workshops.

Metamodel that captures the EvoEvo concepts that we plan to embed within computational framework to generate EvoEvo inspired algorithms

In attempts to further understand the dynamics of complex systems, the application of computer simulation is becoming increasingly prevalent. Whereas a great deal of focus has been placed in the development of software tools that aid researchers develop simulations, similar focus has not been applied in the creation of tools that perform a rigorous statistical analysis of results generated through simulation: vital in understanding how these results offer an insight into the captured system. This encouraged us to develop spartan, a package of statistical techniques designed to assist researchers in understanding the relationship between their simulation and the real system. Previously we have described each technique within spartan in detail, with an accompanying immunology case study examining the development of lymphoid tissue. Here we provide a practical introduction to the package, demonstrating how each technique is run in R, to assist researchers in integrating this package alongside their chosen simulation platform.

The CoSMoS approach and pattern language has typically been used to guide the entire process of development and use of scientific simulators. The resulting CoSMoS components (domain, domain model, platform model, simulation platform and results models) provide an explicit framework for presenting and reasoning about both the engineering and scientific aspects of the simulator and its results. The flexibility of CoSMoS enables us to use the same patterns to reverse engineer CoSMoS model components from pre-existing simulators and associated research literature. We demonstrate this here by applying the CoSMoS patterns to the Aevol (artificial evolution) simulator in order to extract an explicit Aevol domain model.

While every attempt is made to ensure that the information in this publication is correct, no liability can be accepted by the authors or publishers for loss, damage or injury caused by any errors in, or omission from, the information given. v Preface The CoSMoS workshops series has been organised to disseminate best practice in complex systems modelling and simulation, with its genesis in the similarly-named CoSMoS research project, a four year EPSRC funded research project at the Universities of York and Kent in the UK. Funding for the CoSMoS project has now completed, but we have continued to run the workshop series as a forum for research examining all aspects of the modelling and simulation of complex systems. To allow authors the space to describe their systems in depth we put no stringent page limit on the submissions. We are pleased to be running the seventh CoSMoS workshop as a satellite event at the 14th International Conference on the Synthesis and is the leading international conference on artificially constructed living systems, a highly interdisciplinary research area rich in complexity, which provides a natural complement to the issues addressed by the CoSMoS workshop. The main session of the workshop is based on four full paper and two extended abstract submissions: Afshar Dodson et al. apply the CoSMoS approach to analyse and re-engineer Schelling's Bounded Neighbourhood Model, highlighting the importance of formalising a model for clarity and reproducibility in simulation studies. Youssef and Rizk study node-heterogeneity in complex networks, proposing a new model for generating various types of complex networks by varying model parameters. Banda et al. introduce a web-based chemistry simulation framework that provides an intuitive user interface, access to a computational grid and reliable database storage. Andrews and Stepney show how the CoSMoS process and patterns can be used to reverse engineer a domain model of an existing simulation , Aevol, from the simulation code and associated research literature. Leijnen and Dormans present a case study for designing emergence in games, showing how dynamical feedback loops in game mechanics creates fun and interesting gameplay experiences. Mavelli et al. describe a computational platform for studying the role of randomness in a minimal cell model, highlighting how random fluctuations can play an important role in determining timing behaviour. vi Our thanks go to all the contributors for their hard work in getting these submissions prepared and revised. All submissions received multiple …

We present a framework to assist the diagrammatic modelling of complex biological systems using the unified modelling language (UML). The framework comprises three levels of modelling, ranging in scope from the dynamics of individual model entities to system-level emergent properties. By way of an immunological case study of the mouse disease experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis, we show how the framework can be used to produce models that capture and communicate the biological system, detailing how biological entities, interactions and behaviours lead to higher-level emergent properties observed in the real world. We demonstrate how the UML can be successfully applied within our framework, and provide a critique of UML's ability to capture concepts fundamental to immunology and biology more generally. We show how specialized, well-explained diagrams with less formal semantics can be used where no suitable UML formalism exists. We highlight UML's lack of expressive ability concerning cyclic feedbacks in cellular networks, and the compounding concurrency arising from huge numbers of stochastic, interacting agents. To compensate for this, we propose several additional relationships for expressing these concepts in UML's activity diagram. We also demonstrate the ambiguous nature of class diagrams when applied to complex biology, and question their utility in modelling such dynamic systems. Models created through our framework are non-executable, and expressly free of simulation implementation concerns. They are a valuable complement and precursor to simulation specifications and implementations, focusing purely on thoroughly exploring the biology, recording hypotheses and assumptions, and serve as a communication medium detailing exactly how a simulation relates to the real biology.

Background: Experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis has been used extensively as an animal model of T cell mediated autoimmunity. A down-regulatory pathway through which encephalitogenic CD4Th1 cells are killed by CD8 regulatory T cells (Treg) has recently been proposed. With the CD8Treg cells being primed by dendritic cells, regulation of recovery may be occuring around these antigen presenting cells. CD4Treg cells provide critical help within this process, by licensing dendritic cells to prime CD8Treg cells, however the spatial and temporal aspects of this help in the CTL response is currently unclear.Results: We have previously developed a simulator of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (ARTIMMUS). We use ARTIMMUS to perform novel in silico experimentation regarding the priming of CD8Treg cells by dendritic cells, and the resulting CD8Treg mediated killing of encephalitogenic CD4Th1 cells. Simulations using dendritic cells that present antigenic peptides in a mutually exclusive manner (either MBP or TCR-derived, but not both) suggest that there is no significant reliance on dendritic cells that can prime both encephalitogenic CD4Th1 and Treg cells. Further, in silico experimentation suggests that dynamics of CD8Treg priming are significantly influenced through their spatial competition with CD4Treg cells and through the timing of Qa-1 expression by dendritic cells.Conclusion: There is no requirement for the encephalitogenic CD4Th1 cells and cytotoxic CD8Treg cells to be primed by the same dendritic cells. We conjecture that no significant portion of CD4Th1 regulation by Qa-1 restricted CD8Treg cells occurs around individual dendritic cells, and as such, that CD8Treg mediated killing of CD4Th1 cells occurring around dendritic cells is not critical for recovery from the murine autoimmune disease. Furthermore, the timing of the CD4Treg licensing of dendritic cells and the spatial competition between CD4Treg and CD8Treg cells around the dendritic cell is critical for the size of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte response, because dendritic cells have a limited lifespan. If treatments can be found to either speed up the licensing process, or increase the spatial competitiveness of CD8Treg cells, the magnitude of the cytotoxic T lymphocyte response can be increased.

The use of simulation to investigate biological domains will inevitably lead to the need to extend existing simulations as new areas of these domains become more fully understood. Such simulation extensions can entail the incorporation of additional cell types, molecules or molecular pathways, all of which can exert a profound influence on the simulation behaviour. Where the biological domain is not well characterised, a structured development methodology must be employed to ensure that the extended simulation is well aligned with its predecessor. We develop and discuss such a methodology, relying on iterative simulation development and sensitivity analysis. The utility of this methodology is demonstrated using a case study simulation of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a murine T cell-mediated autoimmune disease model of multiple sclerosis, where it is used to investigate the activity of an additional regulatory pathway. We discuss how application of this methodology guards against creating inappropriate simulation representations of the biology when investigating poorly characterised biological mechanisms.