In this article we continue studying the influence of solar activity on the main trajectories of extratropical cyclones (storm tracks) in different parts of the North Atlantic during the cold half of the year (period of intense cyclogenesis). Long-term oscillations in the latitude of storm tracks in the areas located west and east of the Greenwich meridian are compared. It is shown that secular oscillations in latitudes of storm tracks (with periods of ∼80–100 years) are most distinctly pronounced in the western North Atlantic (longitudes 60°–40° W), weaken in the area of the Icelandic Low (30°−10° W), and completely disappear in the eastern part (0°−20° E), where multidecadal oscillations with periods of ∼50–60 years dominate. Bidecadal oscillations in cyclone trajectories (northward shift of trajectories during the declining phase and at the minima of even-numbered solar cycles) have the greatest amplitude in the region of the Icelandic Low and noticeably weaken east of Greenwich. It is shown that the shift of cyclone trajectories to the north in even cycles occurs under increased galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity compared to odd cycles. The data providing evidence for the influence of the stratospheric polar vortex on the position of North Atlantic cyclone trajectories are presented. It is suggested that possible reasons for oscillations in the vortex intensity are changes in the chemical composition and temperature regime of the middle polar stratosphere caused by variations in GCR fluxes and geomagnetic activity.
In this work we continue studying long-term variability of the main trajectories of extratropical cyclones (storm tracks) in the North Atlantic, basing on the data of MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) archives from the Climatic Research Unit, UK (1873-2000) and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (1979-2021). It was revealed that the average latitudes of storm tracks in the cold months (October-March) at longitudes from 60 degrees W to 10 degrees W undergo oscillations with the periods of similar to 80-100, similar to 40-45 and similar to 22 years, which indicates their possible connection with solar activity. Cyclone trajectories were found to be shifted southward at the maximum of the Gleissberg cycle and northward at its minimum, with the peak-to-peak amplitude of the secular variations reaching similar to 5 degrees in the western North Atlantic. Since 1960s, at the descending branch of the secular cycle, cyclone trajectories have been shifted northward again. On the bidecadal time scale, a northward shift of storm tracks was revealed in even solar cycles, the effect being the most pronounced (similar to 1-2 degrees) in the eastern part of the North Atlantic. The detected oscillations of cyclone trajectories indicate long-term changes in the position of the polar jet stream, which is influenced by the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex. A possible mechanism of solar influences on the polar vortex state involves ionization changes due to energetic charged particles (galactic cosmic rays and auroral electrons), which affect the chemical composition and temperature regime of the polar atmosphere.
In this work we study long-term variability of the main directions of extratropical cyclone movement (storm tracks) in the North Atlantic basing on the data of MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) archives from Climatic Research Unit, UK (1873–2000) and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (1979–2021). It was revealed that, in the period of intensive cyclogenesis (October–March), the storm track latitudes in the longitudinal range from 60 to 10 ºW are characterized by noticeable variations with the periods of ~80–90, ~40–45 and ~22–23 years, which indicates their possible association with solar activity and related phenomena. Cyclone trajectories were found to be shifted to the north at the minimum of the secular Gleissberg cycle and to the south at its maximum, with the peak-to-peak amplitude reaching ~5º. On the bidecadal time scale, cyclone trajectories lie ~1−2º further north in even solar cycles. The detected changes of cyclone trajectories provide evidence for long-term variations in intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex, with possible factors of the vortex intensification being ionization changes associated with galactic cosmic ray variations and geomagnetic activity.
Long-term changes of extratropical cyclone trajectories in the North Atlantic in cold months (October-March) were analyzed, with the data of Mean Sea Level Pressure archives from Climatic Research Unit, UK (1873-2000) and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (1979-2021) being used. It was revealed that variations of latitudes of storm tracks in the longitudinal range from 60 degrees W to 10 degrees W are characterized by pronounced periodicities of similar to 80-90 and similar to 22 years. This indicates their possible relation to the corresponding periodicities in solar/geomagnetic activity and galactic cosmic ray variations, the secular Gleissberg cycle and the magnetic Hale cycle, respectively. At the maximum of the secular cycle, trajectories of North Atlantic cyclones were found to shift a few degrees south, whereas at the minimum and the descending phase they shift to the north. As North Atlantic cyclones influence significantly weather and climate conditions over Europe, oscillations of their tracks associated with solar activity and related phenomena seem to be of great prognostic importance.
In this work, we study long-term changes in the main directions of movement (storm tracks) of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic for the period 1873–2021, based on the data of the MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure) archives from the Climatic Research Unit and NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis. It was found that in the cold half of the year, the mean latitudes of storm tracks undergo oscillations with the periods ~80–100, ~40–45, and ~22 years, which indicates their possible association with solar cyclicity. Cyclone trajectories were found to shift northward at the minimum of the Gleissberg secular cycle (~1900–1930) and southward at its maximum (~1940–1960). The secular variations are the most pronounced in the western part of the North Atlantic, with the peak-to-peak amplitude reaching ~3–5°, and disappear at longitudes east of Greenwich. On the bidecadal timescale, cyclone tracks were found to shift noticeably to the north in even solar cycles and weakly to the south in odd ones. The most significant northward shifts (~1–2°) were detected during the descending phase and the minimum of the solar cycle (from the second to the sixth year after the solar maximum) in the eastern part of the North Atlantic (longitudes 30–10° W). The detected oscillations of cyclone trajectories may be caused by long-term changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex associated with galactic cosmic ray variations and geomagnetic activity.
We investigated long-term changes of the main trajectories of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic. It was found that the average latitudes of cyclone trajectories in the cold half of the year undergo oscillations with the periods of ∼80–90 and ∼22 years, which indicates their possible connection with solar activity cycles. A possible mechanism of the detected effects involves changes in the intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex due to variations of galactic cosmic ray fluxes.
In this paper, we study long-term changes in the main directions of movement (storm tracks) of extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic over the period 1873–2021. It was found that in the cold half of the year (the period of the most intense cyclogenesis), the average latitudes of storm tracks in the longitudinal range from 60° to 10° W experience oscillations with periods ∼80–100, ∼40–47, and ∼22 years, indicating their possible association with solar activity variations. The trajectories of cyclones were shifted to the north at the minimum of the Gleissberg secular cycle (∼1900–1930) and to the south at the cycle maximum (∼1940–1960). The secular changes in storm track latitudes amount to ∼3°–5° in the western part of the North Atlantic (the area of formation and the most intensive development of cyclones). On the bidecadal scale, a northward shift of cyclone trajectories in even solar cycles and a southward shift in odd ones were found. The shift of cyclone trajectories to the north in even cycles reached maximal values (∼1°–2° relative to a secular variation) at the descending branch and the minimum of the solar cycle (2nd−6th years after the maximum) in the eastern part of the North Atlantic. Changes in intensity of the stratospheric polar vortex, caused by variations in galactic cosmic rays and geomagnetic activity, are a possible reason for oscillations in cyclone trajectories.
Based on the gamma-ray Burst Monitor data of the Fermi space observatory, the light curve time structure of the gamma-ray burst GRB 190114C in the energy range from 5 keV to 50 MeV was investigated. It was found that the temporal structure of the emission of this gamma-ray burst contains quasi-periodic components with periods of 0.768 s, 1.28 s, 2.24 s, and 3.84 s, determined with an accuracy of up to 0.064 s where the original data time bin is 0.064 s. We also analyzed the evolution of these quasi-period values during the background radiation intensity, which was recorded within 137 s before and within 354 s after the event. As a result, a systematic decrease with time in the value of the quasi-period of 3.84 s was found, while the value of the quasi-period of 0.768 s at the same time gradually increases. A similar unambiguous result for the quasi-periods of 1.28 s and 2.24 s was not obtained. According to the above estimates, it should be noted that the gamma-ray burst itself is located within the time interval when oscillations with quasi-periods of 2.24 s and 3.84 s are in a multiple ratio of similar to 3/5. Such coincidence can serve as an indication of the significant role of resonance phenomena in the process of formation and flow of a gamma-ray burst.
In order to study possible changes in solar activity in the remote transitional climatic period of Younger Dryas cooling (12 700–11 600 ± 100 years BC), two samples of lacustrine ribbon clays were studied: one belongs to the period of this cooling (sample of Lake Meerfelder Maar, West Germany, 12 878–11 636 BP) and the other belongs to the period before it (sample of Lake Hitchcock, New England, 17 500–13 500 BP). Quasi-periodic changes in the structures of samples of these ribbon clays were discovered via the construction of a combined spectral periodogram. They can be attributed to the modern solar-activity cycles of Schwabe, Hale, Brückner, Gleissberg, and Suess-de Vries. A sample estimate of the normalized spectral density of the initial data in a sliding time window up to a thousand years was constructed in order to study the variations in the revealed periods of quasi-periodic components on time intervals before and during the Younger Dryas cooling.
The values of the radio and X-ray solar flux over the last three cycles of solar activity were studied for the presence of quasi-periodic oscillations via the construction of a combined spectral periodogram. The revealed quasi-periods are mainly caused by the modulation of prolonged radio and X-ray fluxes by the proper rotation of the Sun. Particular attention was paid to the study of the time variation of the quasi-periods over the solar cycles via the construction of a sample estimate of the normalized spectral density of the data in a moving time window of up to 2 years. The dynamic diagrams of the variations in the quasi-periods constructed in this manner indicate that the differential rotation of the solar corona manifests itself at individual stages of the development and existence of the last three cycles of solar activity.
The spectral lags of gamma ray bursts are defined as the difference in the registration time of the same radiation pulse in different energy channels of the recording device. This parameter can characterize both the mechanism of radiation generation by the source and the physical conditions of radiation propagation from the source to the observer. In this paper, the dependence of the arrival time of photons on their energy for the gamma ray burst GRB 190114C is obtained from the data of the Gamma ray Burst Monitor (NaI detectors) of the Fermi Gamma ray Space Telescope. It is shown that this dependence is mainly due to the back edges of the light curve pulses. The spectral lags of the leading edges of the pulses are small and comparable in magnitude to the measurement errors. The observed anomaly in the energy range from 5 to 20 keV is probably related to the quasi-thermal radiation of the source.
The paper considers the ratio between the spectral and time structures of solar activity, which consists of five main cycles (Schwabe, Hale, Brueckner, Gleissberg, and Suess-deVries) and the rhythms of banded clays in thirteen samples from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration database, which date back to the Late Pleistocene (~15 000 years ago) and the modern era (from 3000 BC to the present). It is shown that there is no systematic shift in the values of the solar-activity cycles relative to the corresponding periods of the cyclic components in the banded clays, and there is only a partial coincidence (from 33% to 78%) of the former with the latter, depending on the value of their periods. Moreover, 5- to 7-year cycles are observed in ten samples of banded clays, which lately has been attributed to the El Niño phenomenon.
Using the developed method of combining numerous scattered time series of the same type of measurements into a single weighted average series, according to the data of the GOES series satellites, a single series of daily data was synthesized during the 22 nd , 23 rd and 24 th solar cycles (1986 – 2019 years). The flare and background components were distinguished from this data series, which were investigated by means the method of constructing a composite spectral periodogram for the presence of quasiperiodic oscillations at various solar cycles. Some of these found quasiperiods may be explained by both synodic and sidereal rotation of the Sun, while others coincide with the average lifetime of the solar atmosphere active formations such as the sunspot groups and the facular plages. Special attention was paid to the study of the change over time the revealed quasiperiodic values over the course of solar cycles by calculating the sample normalized spectral density of the analyzed data in a sliding time window with a value of up to two years. Based on the revealed quasiperiodic value changes presented on the dynamic diagrams, it can be concluded that the differential rotation of the solar corona is unstable and manifests itself only at certain stages of the development and existence of solar activity cycles.
The paper presents the results of processing of data on the soft X-ray solar radiation obtained by the PINGVIN-M instrument aboard the KORONAS-FOTON spacecraft in July 2009. The high sensitivity of the device, combined with effective compensation for the magnetospheric background over most of the orbit, made it possible to study in detail the evolution of X-ray radiation from the active region and its X-ray bursts-from microflares to class-C bursts. The analyzed data refer to the period of deep minimum solar activity, during which there was only one active region emitting in the soft X-ray range on the solar disk. This made it possible to study the characteristics of soft X-ray radiation in this region without additional background with a device that records radiation from the entire solar disk, which significantly increases the reliability of the estimates of the parameters of the time and energy spectra of X-ray radiation derived from experimental data.
Palaeoclimatic data (thickness variations in the Elatina Formation periglacial varves in the Flinderes Range, South Australia) with a spatial resolution of about one year and a time period of about 1334 years dated to the Marinoan glaciation, 680 Myears ago (late Precambrian), were studied in order to reveal quasiperiodic variations in climate processes in the past. Seven hidden periodicities, i.e., 12, 22, 24, 26, 104, 157, and 316 years, were revealed with a significance level of amplitudes in the framework of the polyharmonic model from 4 sigma up to 16 sigma. It was found that some of the detected periodicities were similar to the current solar activity cyclicity. (C) 2020 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Sun's radio and X-ray flux over the last three cycles of solar activity were investigated for the presence of quasi-periodic oscillations using the method of constructing a combined spectral periodogram.Some of revealed quasi-periods can be explained by the Sun's own rotation, while the rest may reflect the average "life" times of the active formations of the solar atmosphere.Particular attention was paid to the study of the temporal change in the values of the revealed quasi-periods during solar cycles by constructing a sample estimate of the normalized spectral density of the data under study in a sliding time window of up to two years.Based on experimental data, it is shown that differential rotation of the solar corona is possible.
Paleoclimatic data from a sequence of argillite deposits of the Gowganda Formation located in the Mississagi River Valley (southern Ontario Province, Canada) covering a time interval of 256 years with a time resolution of one year are studied to research possible variations of the Earth’s climate in the Paleoproterozoic (~2 Ga ago). The following quasi-periodic variations have been found via the construction of a combined spectral periodogram: 3, 5, 11, 14, 29, and 75 years (at significance levels of the respective estimated values of magnitudes ranging from 2σ to 4σ). This may indicate the possible influence of solar activity on climate changes in the geological past.