A simple 'toy' model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted (and observed) to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gas -induced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N that can cause environmental damage and affect human health. The model predicted that as temporal variability in precipitation increased it progressively reduced yields and increased losses of reactive N by disrupting the synchrony between N supply and plant N uptake. Also, increases in the temporal variation of precipitation increased the frequency of floods and droughts. Predictions of this model indicate that climate-change-driven increases in temporal variation in precipitation in rainfed agricultural ecosystems will make it difficult to sustain cropping systems that are both high-yielding and have small environmental and human-health footprints.

This chapter discusses the Yaqui Valley case study, a project centered on fertilizer use and nitrogen flows in the intensive wheat agricultural systems of the Yaqui Valley. This case study is useful in terms of identifying dynamics of change in human-environment systems, and in providing tools and approaches that can help people in decision-making for human and environmental well-being.

Rapid progress toward intergenerational well-being requires systems approaches, inclusion, collaboration and a focus on scale, argues Pamela Matson.

In response to the scale, complexity, and urgency of the sustainability challenges societies face, there has been both rapid growth in the broad field of sustainability science and technology, as well as sustainability education globally. Yet, demand for sustainability education still far outstrips supply, and the gap between current reality and achieving the goal of intergenerational well-being is widening. There is a need for greater understanding, innovation, and alignment in sustainability education to ensure programs are effective in cultivating agents of change with capabilities pertinent to and commensurate with the nature of the challenge. Through a highly consultative, multi-year process, we used systems design, combining a systems perspective with the iterative design and inquiry process from design thinking, as well as grounded theory to develop a model of a “New Leader”, and an associated curriculum and pedagogy to cultivate these change agents. The resulting Change Leadership for Sustainability Program at Stanford University offers a set of perspectives, frameworks, and tools and a pedagogical approach that prepares students to study and lead change effectively in any social-environmental system, no matter the sector or topic of interest, with an explicit normative goal of intergenerational well-being. After testing and evaluating the Program’s curriculum and pedagogy over the past five years through both master’s and executive programs, we have found that the development of specific competencies is an essential element of sustainability education, yet it is also crucial to focus on cultivating the identity, perspectives, and agency of these New Leaders in order to prepare them for maximum impact.

As global surface temperatures rise, the percentage of total precipitation that falls in extreme events is increasing in many areas ("rainfall intensification"), including the U.S. Midwest, a major agricultural region. While it is well known that losses of nitrogen (N) fertilizers applied in excess of crop N demand have consequences for non-agricultural ecosystems, the effects of rainfall intensification on N losses from agricultural fields are uncertain. We conducted a 234-day field experiment in which we evaluated the effects of rainfall intensification on N leaching, soil inorganic N pools, soil N transformations, and crop N content in replicated tilled and no-till row crop systems of the upper Midwest. Under rainfall exclusion shelters we exposed 5x5m plots to a control rainfall treatment with relatively small, frequent rainfall events historically typical of the region, and an intensified rainfall treatment with the same total rainfall added in larger, less frequent events. Although rainfall intensification increased modeled water percolation to 1.2m in both tilled and no-till systems, as reported previously, it increased nitrate leaching only in tilled systems. Extractable soil nitrate concentrations throughout the experiment were on average 32 % higher in surface soils exposed to intensified rainfall compared to control rainfall regardless of tillage management. In-situ net N mineralization and nitrification rates measured during a two-week period in summer showed no significant differences between rainfall or tillage treatments. Inorganic N pools (0-1.2m depth) were 43 % greater in no-till soils compared to tilled soils and were unaffected by rainfall intensification; crop N concentrations and total N were likewise unaffected. Our results suggest that rainfall intensification in tilled cropping systems will increase N leaching to groundwater, with consequent economic and environmental harm. No-till management, however, may buffer systems against the effects of intensification on nitrate loss.

Decarbonizing the economy must remain a critical priority

Core Ideas Rainfall intensification increased deep percolation in tilled and no‐till systems. Rainfall intensification increased deep soil water content in both cropping systems. A bromide tracer was detected at 1.2‐m depth sooner in no‐till than tilled systems. The effect of rainfall intensification on surface soil moisture varied seasonally. Globally, the proportion of total rainfall occurring as extreme events is increasing, which may have consequences for agriculture. In the US Midwest, we conducted a 234‐d manipulative experiment in 16 paired plots where we increased the proportion of rain falling in extreme events on tilled and no‐till cropping systems. We compared the effects of larger, less frequent rain events (“intensified” rainfall) vs. smaller, more frequent rain events (“normal” rainfall) on soil water content and deep percolation. The effect of intensified rainfall on the volumetric water content (VWC) of soil at the 10‐cm depth during the experiment varied seasonally: in spring, intensified rainfall decreased the average VWC at the 10‐cm depth by 0.05 ± 0.01 cm3 cm−3 compared with normal rainfall, but in summer and fall, it had no effect. In soil at the 100‐cm depth, VWC declined during the summer in normal but not intensified plots. A surface‐added Br− tracer was detected and peaked earlier in soil water at 120 cm under intensified rainfall vs. normal rainfall (by 6 ± 3 and 74 ± 33 d, respectively) regardless of tillage, although it was detected sooner in no‐till than tilled systems (by 9 ± 3 d). Also, less Br− was recovered in soil under intensified (8 ± 8% of total Br− added) vs. normal rainfall (21 ± 3%). Our results suggest that rainfall intensification will increase deep percolation and deep soil water content in cropping systems regardless of tillage. Such changes to soil water dynamics may alter plant water and nutrient availability.

ADVERTISEMENT RETURN TO ISSUEViewpointNEXTEvidence for a Historic Change Occurring in ChinaXuejun Liu*†, Peter Vitousek‡, Yunhua Chang§, Weifeng Zhang†, Pamela Matson∥, and Fusuo Zhang†View Author Information† College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China‡ Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, California, 94016, United States§ Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200433, China∥ School of Earth, Energy and Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, United States*Phone: 0086-10-62733459; fax: 0086-10-62731016; e-mail: [email protected]Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2016, 50, 2, 505–506Publication Date (Web):December 28, 2015Publication History Received5 December 2015Published online28 December 2015Published inissue 19 January 2016https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.est.5b05972https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.5b05972newsACS PublicationsCopyright © 2015 American Chemical Society. This publication is available under these Terms of Use. Request reuse permissions This publication is free to access through this site. Learn MoreArticle Views4634Altmetric-Citations103LEARN ABOUT THESE METRICSArticle Views are the COUNTER-compliant sum of full text article downloads since November 2008 (both PDF and HTML) across all institutions and individuals. These metrics are regularly updated to reflect usage leading up to the last few days.Citations are the number of other articles citing this article, calculated by Crossref and updated daily. Find more information about Crossref citation counts.The Altmetric Attention Score is a quantitative measure of the attention that a research article has received online. Clicking on the donut icon will load a page at altmetric.com with additional details about the score and the social media presence for the given article. Find more information on the Altmetric Attention Score and how the score is calculated. Share Add toView InAdd Full Text with ReferenceAdd Description ExportRISCitationCitation and abstractCitation and referencesMore Options Share onFacebookTwitterWechatLinked InRedditEmail PDF (794 KB) Get e-AlertscloseSUBJECTS:Air pollution,Environmental pollution,Grain,Organic compounds,Particulate matter Get e-Alerts

A growing body of research indicates that climate change is having and will continue to have a range of negative impacts on social environmental systems. Reducing the vulnerability and increasing the resilience of these systems has thus becomes a focus of research, disaster planning, and policy-making. Seaports, located in environmentally sensitive, high-risk locations, are particularly vulnerable to severe storms and the increased sea levels resulting from such climate changes. Planning and policy making for seaports must therefore consider the human factor, that is the population potentially vulnerable to climate change induced events and also the complex network of stakeholders that depend on their functionality. An increasing body of literature suggests that, for planners to be effective in increasing resiliency of social-environmental systems to climate change-related events and other hazards, they must understand and incorporate the perceptions and concerns of the stakeholders in their assessment and planning processes. This study uses empirical evidence collected through case studies of two particularly exposed ports in the US: Gulfport (Mississippi) and Providence (Rhode Island), in order to examine how port stakeholders such as port operators, municipal planners, port tenants, and coastal managers, perceive storm impacts and the seaport's vulnerability, and how their planning and policy making address these perceived concerns. Results suggest the following: (1) Port stakeholders of Gulfport (MS) and Providence (RI) identified a wide range of direct damages, indirect costs, and intangible consequences of a hurricane hitting the port; (2) these impacts would result in costs that would be borne by all port stakeholders as well as society as a whole; and (3) in Providence and Gulfport, plans and policies that address storm resilience for the ports did not include the concerns of many stakeholders. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Today and in the coming decades, the world faces the challenge of meeting the needs of a still-growing human population, and of doing it sustainably – that is, without affecting the ability of future generations to meet their needs. Energy plays a pivotal role in this challenge, both because of its importance to economic development and because of the myriad interactions and influences it has on other critical sustainability issues. In this essay, we explore some of the direct interactions between energy and other things people need, such as food, water, fuel, and clean air, and also some of its indirect interactions with climate, ecosystems, and the habitability of the planet. We discuss some of the challenges and potential unintended consequences that are associated with a transition to clean, affordable energy as well as opportunities that make sense for energy and other sustainability goals. Pursuing such opportunities is critical not just to meeting the energy needs of nine billion people, but also to meeting their other critical needs and to maintaining a planet that supports human life in the near and long term.