In the following paper, requirements for long-term power demand prediction algorithms are formulated, that are needed for a successful implementation of prediction-based driving functions and for enabling their potential benefits in series production vehicles. To this end, influencing factors that affect the load profile when driving on a given route are identified and examined for the impact of their availability and information quality. Load predictions of varying accuracy – i.e., in presence or absence of certain information or even misinformation – are generated and analyzed for their potential benefits when applying a range estimation algorithm for battery electric vehicles and a predictive control strategy for hybrid electric vehicles using discrete dynamic programing (DDP). It is demonstrated that the prediction quality has a significant impact on the benefit of these strategies. When the prediction accuracy is low, the energy demand using a DDP strategy that promises globally optimal control may even be increased compared to rule-based strategies. It is also shown that different predictive applications have different requirements on their prediction quality. The results thus provide an important contribution to the improvement of load prediction algorithms and to the introduction of long-term predictive functions to production vehicles in future.

In the light commercial vehicle (LCV) segment, almost exclusively Diesel engines are used today. The reasons are high mileage, low real-world fuel consumption, high loading capacity and therefore low total cost of ownership. In the next decade, very demanding CO2 targets as well as more stringent legal requirements for pollutant and noise emissions, especially in urban areas, require a substantial increase of electrified powertrain concepts. LCVs are typically employed for freight and passenger transport within urban areas, but are also used in interurban and/or motorway operation. These diverse cases of operation are often not suitable for full electric powertrain concepts, limiting their large-scale introduction. In this context, a Diesel Hybrid powertrain represents a highly capable and flexible propulsion system with attractively low real-world fuel consumption and the ability to achieve ultra-low pollutant emissions.