Tanzania's agriculture is characterized by low productivity due to unpredictable rainfall and the prevalence of pests and diseases. Genetically modified (GM) maize offering protection against drought and insects are being developed. Likewise, GM varieties resistant to cassava brown streak disease were developed. Building on prior crop-based analyses, we use the Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) CGE model to assess the impacts of the adoption of those GM crops. GM maize and cassava have positive effects on the economy, the Agri-Food System (AFS), and poverty. Given its stronger linkages in the AFS, the effects of the GM maize are stronger, especially in higher adoption and high yield scenarios. Likewise, the effects on the poorest and rural households are greater. The high variation across scenarios, and the significant effect of the high adoption/high yield scenarios, suggests a high return to investments and policies that realize these adoption rates and yield potential.

An enabling, evidence-based decision-making framework is critical to support agricultural biotechnology innovation, and to ensure farmers’ access to genetically modified (GM) crops, including orphan crop varieties. A key element, and often a challenge in the decision-making process, involves the balancing of identified potential risks with expected economic benefits from GM crops. The latter is particularly challenging in the case of orphan crops, for which solid economic data is scarce. To address this challenge, the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in collaboration with local economists analyzed the expected economic benefits to farmers and consumers from the adoption of GM crops in 5 sub-Saharan African countries. This paper focuses on case studies involving insect-resistant cowpea in Nigeria and Ghana; disease-resistant cassava in Uganda and Tanzania; and disease-resistant banana in Uganda. Estimations from these case studies show substantial economic benefits to farmers and consumers from the timely adoption and planting in farmers’ fields of GM orphan crops. Our analysis also shows how the benefits would significantly be reduced by regulatory or other delays that affect the timely release of these crops. These findings underscore the importance of having an enabling policy environment and regulatory system—covering, among other elements, biosafety and food/feed safety assessment, and varietal release registration—that is efficient, predictable, and transparent to ensure that the projected economic benefits are delivered and realized in a timely manner.

The Government of Uganda has implemented programs and policies to improve the agricultural sector’s recent underperformance. Uganda’s two main food security crops, bananas and cassava, have been critically affected by two diseases: Banana Xanthomonas Wilt (BXW) and Cassava Brown Streak Disease (CBSD). The effectiveness of agronomic and cultural practices to control these diseases has been limited, requiring better alternatives. The Ugandan R&D sector in collaboration with international partners have developed genetically engineered innovations that can control both diseases. To examine the potential benefits to consumers and producers from the adoption of genetically engineered banana and cassava with resistance to BXW and CBSD, we use a set of economic impact assessment methods. These include an economic surplus model implemented via IFPRI’s DREAMpy framework, a real options model and a limited gender assessment. Results from the economic surplus approach suggest that the adoption of both technologies can benefit Uganda. These results were confirmed for the case of bananas and partially for the case of cassava using the real options and the gender assessment performed. Results from this assessment are predicated on Uganda maintaining an enabling environment that will ensure the deployment and use of both innovations. Looking forward, continuing to improve enabling environment for innovation in Uganda will require addressing current R&D, regulatory, technology deployment and product stewardship processes constraints.

Ethiopian economy has grown at an average rate that surpasses that of almost any other economy in the region over the last two decades. At the center of this development is the high priority placed on accelerating agricultural growth and achieving food security and poverty alleviation. Over the years, maize has become a main food security crop, widely produced and consumed by smallholder farmers, second only to teff in terms of area. Despite the sustained growth of maize production over the years, its yields continue to be lower than the world’s average. Of the many abiotic and biotic constraints that maize faces, insect attacks and droughts are two critical ones. The genetically modified TELA maize can help address these constraints. This paper estimates the economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the opportunity cost that Ethiopia will incur if its adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey, Wave 3 2015-2016, econometric estimations using these survey data, and other local data and sources. The estimations show that if the drought tolerant and insect resistant TELA maize is planted in 2023 the net present-value of benefits for producers and consumers would be around $850 million. Producers from the mid-altitude maize zone will be the main beneficiaries, given the targeted area of TELA maize. Consumers from all areas will benefit from the projected reduction in price. If the adoption of this new technology is delayed by 5 years, the estimated net present value of benefits will fall by 30 percent. These costs underscore the importance of having a regulatory system that is efficient, predictable, and transparent and ensures that the projected economic benefits are realized.

Agrifood systems are powerful levers for improving livelihoods. They must also address an array of systemic challenges, including satisfying growing global food demand, improving diets, limiting greenhouse gas emissions, adapting to a warming climate, and sustaining the environment. Technology and innovation play a central role in meeting these challenges. This brief offers two policy recommendations to support the contribution of innovation. First, G20 countries should increase political and financial support to agrifood systems research in developing countries. Second, the G20 should promote and support science-based, responsible, and riskassessed regulatory reforms that enable the safe deployment of promising bio-innovations.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) published the first method-focused assessment of the applied economic literature about the ex ante and ex post impacts of genetically engineered crops in developing countries in 2009. The overall findings have since been documented by other authors and have been the subject of several other studies and meta-analyses. Of the 154 papers analyzed in the cited IFPRI 2009 publications, only 25 were focused on Africa. Ten years later, this paper shows that the number of publications for Africa has nearly tripled, reaching a total of 72 publications. We gathered, classified, and reviewed all 72 Africa-focused publications. Most of the papers continue to focus on South Africa, an early adopter of the technology and, until 2007, the only African country that had commercialized GE crops. Today, even after the commercialization of insect resistant crops in Burkina Faso, Egypt, and Sudan, and the recent approval for commercialization of insect resistant cotton in Nigeria and Ethiopia, South Africa continues to be the most represented country in the literature and is the focus of 30 of the 72 publications. Nevertheless, a shift is occurring. Whereas only 4 African countries were represented in 2006, there are now 24. Additionally, the crop-focus of this literature has also expanded from mainly cotton to include a wider variety of crop/technologies, such as bacillus thuringiensis (Bt)/nutritionally enhanced banana, Bt tomato, and drought-resistant maize, among others. In addition to documenting and analyzing this Africa-focused literature, this paper documents a total of 353 performance indicators related to the actual or projected changes in yields, gross income, and input use contained in the papers focus of this review. A summary of these performance indicators has also been compiled as a searchable database available to all potential users, including practitioners, interested decision and policy makers, as well as businesses and donors not only to facilitate further research, but also as reference to advance specific GE policies, and to increase awareness related to GE technology performance.

Since oil prices’ decline in 2014, agriculture has received renewed interest in Nigeria as a key sector for achieving sustainable growth and generating foreign exchange. One of the identified obstacles to achieving these goals is the need to improve agricultural productivity. Cowpea is one of the priority crops identified for productivity improvement. Currently cowpea yields are below 900 kg/ha, but it has been shown that with the right technology, these yields could potentially double. One of the main biotic constraints for cowpea is the infestation of the insect pod borer (Maruca Vitrata). No conventional variety has been developed to resist this pest, but with the use of biotechnology and the sustained collaboration of national and international partners over many years, there is now a genetically modified pod-borer-resistant (or more generally insect-resistant) cowpea. This paper estimates the potential economic benefits of adopting this new technology and the cost that Nigeria will incur if this adoption is delayed. The analysis is conducted using an economic surplus partial equilibrium model run with the newly developed DREAMpy software, data drawn from the Nigeria General Household Survey 2015–2016, estimations using these data, and other local sources. The estimations show that if the insect-resistant cowpea is planted in 2020, the net present-value benefits for producers and consumers would be around US$350 million, 70 percent of which would be accrued by producers. The distribution of benefits by region show that Sudan-Sahel will accrue the most benefits, given the relative concentration of cowpea in this region and the estimated higher adoption rates and yield changes. Almost half of producers’ total benefit will go to large producers, who represent only 20 percent of all cowpea producers, while small producers, representing half of all cowpea producers, will receive 24 percent of the benefit. Additionally, the analysis shows that a five-year regulatory delay will decrease the estimated benefits by around 35 percent. While Nigeria already has in place a competent biosafety system that will most likely ensure that these regulatory delays will not materialize, these estimations highlight the importance of having an evidence-based, efficient, predictable, and transparent regulatory system to ensure that the expected economic benefits are realized.

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Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers in lower income countries, and numerous studies attest to its advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. In Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; whether or not many varieties sold as Bt are in fact Bt is also questionable. We utilize nationally representative sample data to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity. Unlike previous studies, we invoke several indicators of Bt identity: variety name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmer belief affects cotton productivity in the standard production model, which does not treat Bt appropriately as damage-abating. In the damage control framework, all Bt indicators reduce damage from pests. Biophysical indicators have the largest effect and official approval has the weakest. Findings have implications for impact measurement. For policymakers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to improve variety information and monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.

Genetically modified, insect-resistant Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) cotton is cultivated extensively in Pakistan. Past studies, however, have raised concerns about the prevalence of Bt cotton varieties possessing weak or nonperforming insect-resistance traits conferred by the cry gene. We examine this issue using data drawn from a representative sample of cotton-growing households that were surveyed in six agroclimatic zones spanning 28 districts in Pakistan in 2013, as well as measurements of Cry protein levels in cotton tissue samples collected from the sampled households' main fields. The resultant dataset combines information from 593 sampled households with corresponding plant tissue diagnostics from 70 days after sowing, as well as information from 589 sampled households with corresponding diagnostics from 120 days after sowing. Our analysis indicates that 11 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was not present in the tested tissue at 70 days after sowing (i.e., a Type I error). The analysis further indicates that 5 percent of farmers believed they were cultivating non-Bt cotton when, in fact, the Cry toxin was present in the tested tissue (i.e., a Type II error). In addition, 17 percent of all sampled farmers were uncertain whether or not they were cultivating Bt cotton. Overall, 33 percent of farmers either did not know or were mistaken in their beliefs about the presence of the cry gene in the cotton they cultivated. Results also indicate that toxic protein levels in the plant tissue samples occurred below threshold levels for lethality in a significant percentage of cases, although these measurements may also be affected by factors related to tissue sample collection, handling, storage, and testing procedures. Nonetheless, results strongly suggest wide variability both in farmers' beliefs and in gene expression. Such variability has implications for policy and regulation in Pakistan's transgenic cotton seed market.

Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers in lower income countries, and numerous studies attest to its advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. In Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; whether or not many varieties sold as Bt are in fact Bt is also questionable. We utilise nationally representative sample data to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity. Unlike previous studies, we invoke several indicators of Bt identity: variety name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmer belief affects cotton productivity in the standard production model, which does not treat Bt appropriately as damage-abating. In the damage control framework, all Bt indicators reduce damage from pests. Biophysical indicators have the largest effect and official approval has the weakest. Findings have implications for impact measurement. For policy-makers, they suggest the need, on ethical and productivity grounds, to improve variety information and monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.

Genetically modified (GM) crop technologies have made great strides since its first introduction in 1996. Although there is an extensive and growing body of literature on the economic impact of the adoption of GM crops in both developing and developed economies, there is only scant evidence that the technology has had any specific and distinguishable impact among female and male farmers. In economies where female farmers and female household members have a significant and often differentiated role in agriculture production, it is crucial to be able to answer this question. This paper presents quantitative and qualitative results from a study of the gender-specific adoption and performance effects of insect resistant (Bt) and herbicide-tolerant (HT) maize produced by smallholder farmers in the Kwa Zulu Natal province in South Africa. The findings indicate that women farmers value the labor-saving benefit of HT maize alongside the stacked varieties which offer both insect control and labor saving. Higher yields are the main reason behind male adoption, while female farmers tend to favor other aspects like taste, quality, and the ease of farming herbicide-tolerant (HT) crops. Women farmers (and also children) saved significant time because less weeding is required, an activity that has traditionally been the responsibility of female farmers. The newer stacked varieties were preferred by both male and female farmers and seemed to be in high demand by both groups. However, lack of GM seed availability in the region and poor market access were possible limitations to the adoption and spread of the technology.

Bt cotton remains one of the most widely grown biotech crops among smallholder farmers. Numerous studies, including those previously conducted in Pakistan, attest to its yield and cost advantages. However, the effectiveness of Bt toxin, which depends on many technical constraints, is heterogeneous. Furthermore, in Pakistan, the diffusion of Bt cotton varieties occurred despite a weak regulatory system and without seed quality control; evidence demonstrates that varieties sold as Bt may not contain the genes or express them effectively. We use data collected from a sample that is statistically representative of the nation’s cotton growers to test the effects of Bt cotton use on productivity in a damage control framework. Unlike previous studies, we employ five measures of Bt identity: name, official approval status, farmer belief, laboratory tests of Bt presence in plant tissue, and biophysical assays measuring Bt effectiveness. Only farmers’ belief that a variety is Bt affects cotton productivity. Although all measures reduce damage from pests, the biophysical indicators have the largest effect, and official approval has the weakest. For applied economists, findings highlight the importance of getting the data right concerning Bt. For policy makers, they suggest the need, on ethical if not productivity grounds, to monitor variety integrity closer to point of sale.

Social networks play an important role in generating learning externalities that can drive the diffusion of innovative, and potentially poverty-reducing, technologies. This is particularly the case in developing countries where rural education, extension, and agricultural information services are underprovided. The recent introduction of genetically modified insect-resistant Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) cotton in Pakistan represents an example where imperfect markets, weak extension services, and information asymmetries limit the ability of farmers to make informed decisions on how to take best advantage of the technology. This study explores the role of social networks and learning externalities in the adoption of Bt cotton in Pakistan. We model how information from social network members influences farmers’ adoption decisions, controlling for farmers’ characteristics, cotton growing conditions, and other possible information sources. We apply our model to a representative sample of 728 cotton-growing households randomly selected in 2012-13 from 52 villages across Punjab and Sindh. We also assess the role of input dealers, progressive farmers, public extension agents, and farmers’ individual characteristics in the uptake of the technology. Results suggest that communication within social networks helps disseminate information about Bt cotton cultivation and has encouraged its adoption.

The African Development Bank (AfDB), in commissioning this report to be prepared by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), highlighted the need for a comprehensive, evidenced-based review of agricultural biotechnology in order to better understand its current status, issues, constraints, and opportunities for Africa. Agricultural biotechnology comprises several scientific techniques (genetic engineering, molecular marker-assisted breeding, the use of molecular diagnostics and vaccines, and tissue cul­ture) that are used to improve plants, animals, and microorganisms. However, in prepar­ing this desktop analysis, IFPRI has focused on genetic modification (GM) technologies in particular and on the agricultural context in which they are being applied, because GM technologies are at the center of the controversy about biotechnology’s role in Africa. In addition, because we have attempted to focus our review on peer-reviewed evidence and documented examples, the preponderance of data presented in the report is focused on genetically modified (also abbreviated GM) crops in use and under development, although we recognize the potential of the technology for livestock, fisheries, and forestry.

Efficient information exchanges between sellers and buyers are essential if prices are to act as a signal for resource allocation in an economy. In the case of seed and planting materials, information on quality traits are often difficult for consumers (farmers) to obtain prior to purchase, resulting in failures in the market for seed-based technologies. While regulations on seed certification, labeling and packaging seek to remedy this problem, such regulations are often difficult to enforce where markets are large and diverse, or where the government’s regulatory infrastructure is limited. The market for genetically modified insect-resistant Bt (bacillus thuringiensis) cotton seed in Pakistan appears to be one of these markets. In this paper, we test for the presence of asymmetric information in the seed market by comparing the quality of seed purchased across a representative sample of cotton farmers in Pakistan’s two main cotton-growing provinces. We also test for the extent to which seed prices reflect the efficacy of the insect-resistance traits—a quality trait that is generally unobservable by the farmer—as measured by ELISA (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay) readings of the Bt toxin expression levels. Drawing on initial results from these tests, we then explore the various regulatory mechanisms and market instruments that can be used to help farmers to better infer Bt seed quality.