The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to future climate change is relatively unconstrained. Determining the extents and rates of ice-margin fluctuations during the Holocene provides a longer-term perspective on ice-sheet changes and offers an analogue of how the ice-sheet may respond to future changes. Here, we present sixteen new 10Be ages of boulders on moraines, boulders perched on bedrock, and bedrock surfaces that mark the timing of ice-margin fluctuations during the Holocene in the Kangerlussuaq region of southern west Greenland. We show that the Keglen moraines date to 8.0 ± 0.3 ka (n = 6) and that the average ice-margin retreat rate slowed from about 49 to 13 m yr−1 after about 8.0 ka, likely in response to the ice margin retreating onto land at the head of the fjord Kangerlussuaq at this time. The average retreat rate further slowed to less than 1 m yr−1 between 6.8 ka and 4.2 cal kyr BP, a time when nearby paleoclimate records document warm summers and increased precipitation. Finally, we show that the historical advances of the ice margin occurred during the past 200 years, likely in response to cooler summer temperatures.

At the end of the last ice age, glacier systems worldwide underwent dramatic retreat. Here, we document the advance and retreat of a glacier system with adjacent marine-and land-based components during the latter part of the Termination. We utilize three lines of evidence: lithologic provenance, geomorphic mapping, and radiocarbon ages derived from lake cores to reconstruct glacier extent and timing of advance and retreat within our study area centered at N 61.50 degrees, W 149.50 degrees, just north of Anchorage, Alaska. Two glaciers, sourced in the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains, flowed down the Matanuska and Knik Valleys forming a coalesced lobe that advanced onto the Anchorage Lowlands and terminated at Elmendorf Moraine. We use the presence of lithologies unique to the Matanuska catchment in glacial drift to delineate the paleoflow lines and to estimate the suture line of the two glacier systems. The eastern side of the lobe, attributed to ice flow from the Knik Valley, was in contact with elevated marine waters within the Knik Arm fjord, and thus retreat was likely dominated by calving. Geomorphic evidence suggests the western side of the lobe, attributed to ice flow from Matanuska Valley, retreated due to stagnation. We constrain retreat of the combined Matanuska and Knik lobe with thirteen new radiocarbon ages, in addition to previously published radiocarbon ages, and with geomorphic evidence suggesting the retreat occurred in two phases. Retreat from the Elmendorf Moraine began between 16.8 and 16.4 ka BP. A second, faster retreat phase occurred later and was completed by 13.7 ka BP. With the 140 km of total retreat occurring over similar to 3000 years or less. This pattern of glacial advance and retreats agrees well with the deglacial histories from the southern sectors of the Cordilleran Ice Sheet, as well as many other alpine glacier systems in the western U.S. and northern Alaska. This consistent behavior of glacier systems may indicate that climate oscillated over western North America early in deglaciation before it was recorded in other proxies such as ice cores. Furthermore, the period in which we note mountain glacier collapse in northwestern North America is synchronous with the worldwide glacial termination raising questions about intrahemispheric linkages. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easy to reproduce. These qualities also make simple models useful for the characterization of risk. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geoscience scan often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components), and review. Here, we describe the simple model framework BRICK (Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge) v0.2 and its underlying design principles. The paper adds detail to an earlier published model setup and discusses the inclusion of a land water storage component. The framework largely builds on existing models and allows for projections of global mean temperature as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk. BRICK is written in R and Fortran. BRICK gives special attention to the model values of transparency, accessibility, and flexibility in order to mitigate the above-mentioned issues while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

Simple models can play pivotal roles in the quantification and framing of uncertainties surrounding climate change and sea-level rise. They are computationally efficient, transparent, and easier to reproduce. These qualities make simple models useful for uncertainty quantification and risk characterization. Simple model codes are increasingly distributed as open source, as well as actively shared and guided. Alas, computer codes used in the geosciences can often be hard to access, run, modify (e.g., with regards to assumptions and model components), and review. Here, we introduce a simple model framework for projections of global mean temperatures as well as regional sea levels and coastal flood risk (BRICK: Building blocks for Relevant Ice and Climate Knowledge). The BRICK model framework is written in R and Fortran and aims to help mitigate these issues, while maintaining a high degree of computational efficiency. We demonstrate the flexibility of this framework through simple model intercomparison experiments. Furthermore, we demonstrate that BRICK is suitable for risk assessment applications by using a didactic example in local flood risk management.

Engineering the climate through albedo modification (AM) could slow, but probably would not stop, melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Albedo modification is a technology that could reduce surface air temperatures through putting reflective particles into the upper atmosphere. AM has never been tested, but it might reduce surface air temperatures faster and more cheaply than reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Some scientists claim that AM would also prevent or reverse sea-level rise. But, are these claims true? The Greenland Ice Sheet will melt faster at higher temperatures, adding to sea-level rise. However, it's not clear that reducing temperatures through AM will stop or reverse sea-level rise due to Greenland Ice Sheet melting. We used a computer model of the Greenland Ice Sheet to examine its contributions to future sea level rise, with and without AM. Our results show that AM would probably reduce the rate of sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet. However, sea-level rise would likely continue even with AM, and the ice sheet would not regrow quickly. Albedo modification might buy time to prepare for sea-level rise, but problems could arise if policymakers assume that AM will stop sea-level rise completely.

Cosmogenic exposure dating of glacial boulders is commonly used to estimate the timing of past glaciations because the method enables direct dating of the duration a boulder has been exposed to cosmic rays. For successful dating, the boulders must have been fully shielded from cosmic rays prior to deposition and continuously exposed to cosmic rays ever since. A common assumption is that boulder height (the distance between the top of the boulder and the surrounding surface) is important, and that tall boulders are more likely to have been continuously exposed to cosmic rays than short boulders and therefore yield more accurate exposure ages. Here we test this assumption based on exposure age clustering for groups of glacial boulders (and single cobbles) 10Be exposure ages that have recorded boulder heights (3741 boulders; 579 boulder groups with ≥3 boulders). Of the full set of boulder groups with ≥3 boulders, 21% fulfill a reduced chi square criterion (χR2<2) for well-clustered exposure ages. For boulder groups containing only tall boulders, the fraction of well-clustered exposure age groups is consistently larger. Moreover, this fraction of well-clustered exposure age groups increases with the minimum boulder height in each group. This result confirms the common assumption that tall boulders are generally better targets for cosmogenic exposure dating compared to short boulders. Whereas the tall boulder groups have a significantly larger fraction of well-clustered exposure age groups, there is nonetheless a dominant fraction (>50%) of the boulder groups with scattered exposure ages, highlighting the problem with prior and incomplete exposure for cosmogenic dating of glacial boulders.

Rapid retreat of ice in the Amundsen Sea sector of West Antarctica may cause drastic sea level rise, posing significant risks to populations in low-lying coastal regions. Calibration of computer models representing the behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is key for informative projections of future sea level rise. However, both the relevant observations and the model output are high-dimensional binary spatial data; existing computer model calibration methods are unable to handle such data. Here we present a novel calibration method for computer models whose output is in the form of binary spatial data. To mitigate the computational and inferential challenges posed by our approach, we apply a generalized principal component based dimension reduction method. To demonstrate the utility of our method, we calibrate the PSU3D-ICE model by comparing the output from a 499-member perturbed-parameter ensemble with observations from the Amundsen Sea sector of the ice sheet. Our methods help rigorously characterize the parameter uncertainty even in the presence of systematic data-model discrepancies and dependence in the errors. Our method also helps inform environmental risk analyses by contributing to improved projections of sea level rise from the ice sheets.

A 3-D hybrid ice-sheet model is applied to the last deglacial retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet over the last ∼ 20 000 yr. A large ensemble of 625 model runs is used to calibrate the model to modern and geologic data, including reconstructed grounding lines, relative sea-level records, elevation–age data and uplift rates, with an aggregate score computed for each run that measures overall model–data misfit. Two types of statistical methods are used to analyze the large-ensemble results: simple averaging weighted by the aggregate score, and more advanced Bayesian techniques involving Gaussian process-based emulation and calibration, and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The analyses provide sea-level-rise envelopes with well-defined parametric uncertainty bounds, but the simple averaging method only provides robust results with full-factorial parameter sampling in the large ensemble. Results for best-fit parameter ranges and envelopes of equivalent sea-level rise with the simple averaging method agree well with the more advanced techniques. Best-fit parameter ranges confirm earlier values expected from prior model tuning, including large basal sliding coefficients on modern ocean beds.

Sea level could rise by several meters over the next centuries. The Greenland ice sheet could be an important contributor to future sea-level rise, because of its large volume and its high sensitivity to surface air temperature increases. Frameworks for the integrated climate risk management often require fast, simplified treatments of sea-level rise, in particular for estimating the risks associated with low probabilities but potentially high impacts. State-of-the-art ice sheet models provide important insights, but are often computationally too demanding to evaluate tail-area risks. Here we present SIMPLE, a physically motivated model of the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. SIMPLE can skillfully reproduce the results from a three-dimensional ice sheet model and outperforms existing simple models, after similar calibration. We anticipate that SIMPLE will be calibrated to other ice sheet models and can provide a fast approximation (emulator) for such models in studies that require many model evaluations.

Human-induced climate change may cause significant ice volume loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). Projections of ice volume change from ice sheet models and corresponding future sea-level rise have large uncertainties due to poorly constrained input parameters. In most future applications to date, model calibration has utilized only modern or recent (decadal) observations, leaving input parameters that control the long-term behavior of WAIS largely unconstrained. Many paleo-observations are in the form of localized time series, while modern observations are non-Gaussian spatial data; combining information across these types poses nontrivial statistical challenges. Here we introduce a computationally efficient calibration approach that utilizes both modern and paleo-observations to generate better constrained ice volume projections. Using fast emulators built upon principal component analysis and a reduced dimension calibration model, we can efficiently handle high-dimensional and non-Gaussian data. We apply our calibration approach to the PSU3D-ICE model which can realistically simulate long-term behavior of WAIS. Our results show that using paleo-observations in calibration significantly reduces parametric uncertainty, resulting in sharper projections about the future state of WAIS. One benefit of using paleo-observations is found to be that unrealistic simulations with overshoots in past ice retreat and projected future regrowth are eliminated.

Well-dated records of tropical glacier fluctuations are essential for developing hypotheses and testing proposed mechanisms for past climate changes. Since organic material for radiocarbon dating is typically scarce in low-latitude, high-altitude environments, surface exposure-age dating, based on the measurement of in situ produced cosmogenic nuclides, provides much of the chronologic information on tropical glacier moraines. Here, we present a locally calibrated Be-10 production rate for a low-latitude, high-altitude site near Quelccaya Ice Cap (similar to 13.95 degrees S, 70.89 degrees W, 4857 m asl) in the southeastern Peruvian Andes. Using an independent age (12.35 +0.2, -0.02 ka) of the late glacial Huancane Ha moraines based on thirty-four bracketing radiocarbon ages and twelve Be-10 concentrations of boulders on the moraines, we determine a local production rate of 43.28 +/- 2.69 atoms gram(-1) year (at g(-1) yr(-1)). Reference Be-10 production rates (i.e., production rates by neutron spallation appropriate for sea-level, high-latitude sites) range from 3.97 +/- 0.09 to 3.78 +/- 0.09 at g(-1) yr(-1), determined using scaling after Lal (1991) and Stone (2000) and depending on our assumed boulder surface erosion rate. Since our boulder surface erosion rate estimate is a minimum value, these reference production rates are also minimum values. A secondary control site on the Huancane Mb moraines suggests that the Be-10 production rates are at least as low as, or possibly lower than, those derived from the Huancane Ha moraines. These sea-level, high-latitude production rates are at least 11-15% lower than values derived using the traditional global calibration dataset, and they are also lower than those derived from the late glacial Breque moraine in the Cordillera Blanca of Peru. However, our sea-level, high-latitude production rates agree well with recently published, locally calibrated production rates from the Arctic, New Zealand, and Patagonia. The production rates presented here should be used to calculate Be-10 exposure ages in low-latitude, high-altitude locations, particularly in the tropical Andes, and should improve the ability to compare the results of studies using Be-10 exposure-age dating with other chronological data. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Albedo modification (AM) is sometimes characterized as a potential means of avoiding climate threshold responses, including large-scale ice sheet mass loss. Previous work has investigated the effects of AM on total sea-level rise over the present century, as well as AM's ability to reduce long-term (>> 10(3) yr) contributions to sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). These studies have broken new ground, but neglect important feedbacks in the GIS system, or are silent on AM's effectiveness over the short time scales that may be most relevant for decision-making (< 10(3) yr). Here, we assess AM's ability to reduce GIS sea-level contributions over decades to centuries, using a simplified ice sheet model. We drive this model using a business-as-usual base temperature forcing scenario, as well as scenarios that reflect AM-induced temperature stabilization or temperature drawdown. Our model results suggest that (i) AM produces substantial near-term reductions in the rate of GIS-driven sea-level rise. However, (ii) sea-level rise contributions from the GIS continue after AM begins. These continued sea level rise contributions persist for decades to centuries after temperature stabilization and temperature drawdown begin, unless AM begins in the next few decades. Moreover, (iii) any regrowth of the GIS is delayed by decades or centuries after temperature drawdown begins, and is slow compared to pre-AM rates of mass loss. Combined with recent work that suggests AM would not prevent mass loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, our results provide a nuanced picture of AM's possible effects on future sea-level rise.

Damages from sea level rise, as well as strategies to manage the associated risk, hinge critically on the time scale and eventual magnitude of sea level rise. Satellite observations and paleo-data suggest that the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) loses mass in response to increased temperatures, and may thus contribute substantially to sea level rise as anthropogenic climate change progresses. The time scale of GIS mass loss and sea level rise are deeply uncertain, and are often assumed to be constant. However, previous ice sheet modeling studies have shown that the time scale of GIS response likely decreases strongly with increasing temperature anomaly. Here, we map the relationship between temperature anomaly and the time scale of GIS response, by perturbing a calibrated, three-dimensional model of GIS behavior. Additional simulations with a profile, higher-order, ice sheet model yield time scales that are broadly consistent with those obtained using the three-dimensional model, and shed light on the feedbacks in the ice sheet system that cause the time scale shortening. Semi-empirical modeling studies that assume a constant time scale of sea level adjustment, and are calibrated to small preanthropogenic temperature and sea level changes, may underestimate future sea level rise. Our analysis suggests that the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, in terms of avoided sea level rise from the GIS, may be greatest if emissions reductions begin before large temperature increases have been realized. Reducing anthropogenic climate change may also allow more time for design and deployment of risk management strategies by slowing sea level contributions from the GIS.

The temporal and spatial patterns of late Holocene climate conditions provide valuable information for testing hypothesized mechanisms of recent climate changes. As a proxy for late Holocene climate in the southern tropics, we present a Be-10 chronology of moraines deposited by Qori Kalis, an outlet glacier of Quelccaya Ice Cap in Peru. The Qori Kalis moraines are located down-flow from the Quelccaya ice cores and provide the first glacial extent record that can be compared directly to annually resolved tropical ice core records. Qori Kalis advanced to its late Holocene maximum extent prior to 520 +/- 60yr before CE 2009, when Quelccaya ice core net accumulation values were at or below their late Holocene average. Subsequent glacial retreat between similar to 520 and 330 yr before CE 2009 coincides with the highest net accumulation values of the similar to 1800-yr-long ice core record. Therefore, we suggest that temperature, rather than net accumulation, was the primary driver of these glacial fluctuations. Comparison of the late Holocene fluctuations of Qori Kalis glacier with glaciers in the southern tropical Andes, Patagonian Andes, Switzerland,Alaska and New Zealand suggests globally synchronous, centennial-scale cold events.