The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) project evaluated the ability of observations from high-altitude unmanned aircraft to improve forecasts of high-impact weather events like tropical cyclones or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. During three field campaigns conducted in 2015 and 2016, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Global Hawk, instrumented with GPS dropwindsondes and remote sensors, flew 15 missions sampling 6 tropical cyclones and 3 winter storms. Missions were designed using novel techniques to target sampling regions where high model forecast uncertainty and a high sensitivity to additional observations existed. Data from the flights were examined in real time by operational forecasters, assimilated in operational weather forecast models, and applied postmission to a broad suite of data impact studies. Results from the analyses spanning different models and assimilation schemes, though limited in number, consistently demonstrate the potential for a positive forecast impact from the observations, both with and without a gap in satellite coverage. The analyses with the then-operational modeling system demonstrated large forecast improvements near 15% for tropical cyclone track at a 72-h lead time when the observations were added to the otherwise complete observing system. While future decisions regarding use of the Global Hawk platform will include budgetary considerations, and more observations are required to enhance statistical significance, the scientific results support the potential merit of the observations. This article provides an overview of the missions flown, observational approach, and highlights from the completed and ongoing data impact studies.

The High- Definition Sounding System (HDSS) is an automated system deploying the expendable digital dropsonde (XDD) designed to measure wind and pressure-temperature-humidity (PTH) profiles, and skin sea surface temperature (SST) within and around tropical cyclones (TCs) and other high-impact weather events needing high sampling density. Three experiments were conducted to validate the XDD.On two successive days off the California coast, 10 XDDs and 14 Vaisala RD-94s were deployed from the navy's Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely-Piloted Aircraft Studies (CIRPAS) Twin Otter aircraft over offshore buoys. The Twin Otter made spiral descents from 4 km to 60 m at the same descent rate as the sondes. Differences between successive XDD and RD-94 profiles due to true meteorological variability were on the same order as the profile differences between the spirals, XDDs, and RD-94s. XDD SST measured via infrared microradiometer, referred to as infrared skin SST (SSTir), and surface wind measurements were within 0.5 degrees C and 1.5ms(-1), respectively, of buoy and Twin Otter values.A NASA DC-8 flight launched six XDDs from 12 km between ex-TC Cosme and the Baja California coast. Repeatability was shown with good agreement between features in successive profiles. XDD SSTir measurements from 18 degrees to 28 degrees C and surface winds agreed well with drifting buoy- and satellite-derived estimates.Excellent agreement was found between PTH and wind profiles measured by XDDs deployed from a NASA WB-57 at 18-km altitude offshore from the Texas coast and NWS radiosonde profiles from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas. Successful XDD profiles were obtained in the clear and within precipitation over an offshore squall line.

500–1,500-km-radius annulus about the TC. Additional data are provided by nearby radiosonde observations. Data are first interpolated in x

A GPS dropsonde is a scientific instrument deployed from research and operational aircraft that descends through the atmosphere by a parachute. The dropsonde provides high-quality, high-vertical-resolution profiles of atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and direction from the aircraft flight level to the surface over oceans and remote areas. Since 1996, GPS dropsondes have been routinely dropped during hurricane reconnaissance and surveillance flights to help predict hurricane track and intensity. From 1996 to 2012, NOAA has dropped 13,681 dropsondes inside hurricane eye walls or in the surrounding environment for 120 tropical cyclones (TCs). All NOAA dropsonde data have been collected, reformatted to one format, and consistently and carefully quality controlled using state-of-the-art quality-control (QC) tools. Three value-added products, the vertical air velocity and the radius and azimuth angle of each dropsonde location, are generated and added to the dataset. As a result, a long-term (1996-2012), high-quality, high-vertical-resolution (similar to 5-15 m) GPS dropsonde dataset is created and made readily available for public access. The dropsonde data collected during hurricane reconnaissance and surveillance flights have improved TC-track and TC-intensity forecasts significantly. The impact of dropsonde data on hurricane studies is summarized. The scientific applications of this long-term dropsonde dataset are highlighted, including characterizing TC structures, studying TC environmental interactions, identifying surface-based ducts in the hurricane environment that affect electromagnetic wave propagation, and validating satellite temperature and humidity profiling products.

Development of microwave technologies and our ability to penetrate into Tropical Cyclones (TCs) by instrumented aircraft and observe from satellites have contributed much of the knowledge and understanding that exist today. We can now follow the structure and development of a storm from inception through the many stages towards a dangerous typhoon, hurricane or cyclone, as they are variously called around the globe. The data from satellite microwave radiometers, scatterometers, altimeters, Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs), microwave sounders, a rain radar and a cloud profiling radar as well as coastal radars, airborne radars and microwave radiometers have all contributed to changing the fields of both TC research and TC operational forecasting.

Naval Research Laboratory Marine Meteorology Division SAIC, Inc Surveillance and Reconnaissance Solutions Division University at Albany, State University of New York Atmospheric Sciences Research Center Albany, NY Yankee Environmental Systems, Inc. Naval Postgraduate School Center for Interdisciplinary Remotely Piloted Aircraft Studies Naval Postgraduate School Meteorology and Physical Oceanography Department NASA/ Johnson Space Center WB-57 Program Office, Ellington Field

The current Global Hawk flight rules would probably not have been effective in the single event of greatest concern (the Emily encounter). The cloud top had not reached 50,000 ft until minutes before the encounter. The TOT and lightning data would not have been available until near the overflight time since this was a rapidly growing cell. This case would have required a last‐minute diversion when lightning became frequent. Avoiding such a cell probably requires continual monitoring of the forward camera and storm scope, whether or not cloud tops have been exceeding specific limits. However, the current overflight rules as strictly interpreted would have prohibited significant fractions of the successful Global Hawk overpasses of Karl and Matthew that proved not to be hazardous. Many other high altitude aircraft (ER‐2 and Global Hawk) flights in NASA tropical cyclone field programs have successfully overflown deep convective clouds without incident.The convective cell that caused serious concern about the safety of the ER‐2 in Emily was especially strong for a tropical cyclone environment, probably as strong or stronger than any that was overflown by the ER‐2 in 20 previous flights over tropical cyclones. Specifically, what made that cell a safety concern was the magnitude of the vertical velocity of the updraft, at least 20 m/s (4000 ft/minute) at the time the ER‐2 overflew it. Such a strong updraft can generate strong gravity waves at and above the tropopause, posing a potential danger to aircraft far above the maximum altitude of the updraft itself or its associated cloud top. Indeed, the ER‐2 was probably at least 9000 ft above that cloud top. Cloud‐top height, by itself, is not an especially good indicator of the intensity of convection and the likelihood of turbulence. Nor is overflying high cloud tops (i.e. > 50,000 ft) of particular concern unless there is other evidence of very strong convective updrafts beneath those tops in the path of the aircraft. center dot Lightning, especially lightning with a high flash rate, is well correlated with convective intensity. Lightning with a minimal flash rate (say 1‐3 flashes per minute) is indicative of updraft speeds of about 10 m/s in the mixed phase region where charge is being separated, generally at altitudes about 20‐25 kft in a hurricane. That is still stronger than typical updrafts (more like 5 m/s). An unresolved issue is whether there is a high and instantaneous correlation between vertical velocity in the middle troposphere (necessary for lightning generation) and near cloud top (more direct concern for overflights).

Abstract Text: NASA operates two Global Hawk unmanned aircraft systems for Earth Science research projects. In particular, they are used in the Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) project during 2012, 2013, and 2014 to take measurements from the environment around tropical cyclones, and from directly above tropical cyclones. There is concern that strict adherence to the weather avoidance rules used in 2012 may sacrifice the ability to observe important science targets. We have proposed modifications to these weather avoidance rules that we believe will improve the ability to observe science targets without compromising aircraft safety. The previous guidelines, used in 2012, specified: • Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below • When flying above FL500: Do not approach reported lightning within 25NM in areas where cloud tops are reported at FL500 or higher. Aircraft should maintain at least 10000 ft vertical separation from reported lightning if cloud tops are below FL500 • No over-flight of cumulus tops higher than FL500 • No flight into forecast or reported icing conditions • No flight into forecast or reported moderate or severe turbulence Based on past experience with high-altitude flights over tropical cyclones, we have recommended changing this guidance to: • Do not approach thunderstorms within 25 nm during flight at FL500 or below. • Aircraft should maintain at least 5000 ft vertical separation from significant convective cloud tops except: a) When cloud tops above FL500: In the event of reported significant lightning activity or indicators of significant overshooting tops , do not approach within 10-25 nm, depending on pilot discretion and advice from Mission Scientist. b) When cloud tops are below FL500, maintain 10000 ft separation from reported significant lightning or indicators of significant overshooting tops. • No flight into forecasted or reported icing conditions • No flight into forecasted or reported moderate or severe turbulence The key changes have to do with overflight of high convective cloud tops and those producing lightning. Experience shows that most tropical oceanic convection (including that in tropical cyclones) is relatively gentle even if the cloud tops are quite high, and can be safely overflown. Exceptions are convective elements producing elevated lightning flash rates (more than just the occasional flash, which would trigger avoidance under the previous rules) and significant overshooting cloud tops. The presentation will report our justification for the proposed modifications, and report on the experience using these guidelines during the August - September 2013 deployment of HS3.