First posted January 4, 2016 For additional information, contact: St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science CenterU.S. Geological Survey600 4th Street SouthSt. Petersburg, FL 33701http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/ This report documents the development of statistical tools used to quantify the hazard presented by the response of sea-level elevation to natural or anthropogenic changes in climate and ocean circulation. A hazard is a physical process (or processes) that, when combined with vulnerability (or susceptibility to the hazard), results in risk. This study presents the development and comparison of new and existing sea-level analysis methods, exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of the methods using synthetic time series, and when appropriate, synthesis of the application of the method to observed sea-level time series. These reports are intended to enhance material presented in peer-reviewed journal articles where it is not always possible to provide the level of detail that might be necessary to fully support or recreate published results. The purpose of this report is to document and compare three simple methodologies that have previously been used to provide estimates with associated errors of the acceleration of sea-level elevation. These techniques have been used by coastal scientists and planners in assessing coastal risk over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Because relative sea-level (SL) elevation time series contain energetic fluctuations at many time scales, extracting what can be relatively small rate and acceleration signals (along with estimates of the error) from much larger “noise” has proven to be both difficult and controversial. Acceleration is a preferred measure of SL response to recent changes in the Earth’s climate because over time scales of 100 years or less slow vertical land motions (such as glacial isostatic adjustment) contribute only to the linear signal and not to acceleration, thus reducing the complexity of the analysis. Hence acceleration is useful if the goal of a study is to characterize and quantify the hazard associated with the changing relative elevation of water with respect to land on decadal time scales. Although in some cases it may be necessary to determine the cause of relative sea level rise, as a first step, it is important to accurately estimate the magnitude of the threat. Most researchers agree that global sea level (GSL) rose persistently through much of the 20th century at about 1.5–2.0 millimeters per year (mm/yr). There is far less agreement about whether the rate of sea-level rise (SLR) is increasing (that is, an acceleration in SL). Recent studies, and most of their predecessors, use tide gage data to quantify SL acceleration, ASL(t). In the current study, three techniques were used to calculate acceleration from tide gage data, and of those examined, it was determined that the two techniques based on sliding a regression window through the time series are more robust compared to the technique that fits a single quadratic form to the entire time series, particularly if there is temporal variation in the magnitude of the acceleration. The single-fit quadratic regression method has been the most commonly used technique in determining acceleration in tide gage data. The inability of the single-fit method to account for time-varying acceleration may explain some of the inconsistent findings between investigators. Properly quantifying ASL(t) from field measurements is of particular importance in evaluating numerical models of past, present, and future SLR resulting from anticipated climate change.

This study provides field evidence of the existence, magnitude and formative processes of a sea-level-rise hotspot located in one of the world’s most densely populated coastal areas encompassing Boston, Providence, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Norfolk Virginia Beach. Climate warming does not force sea-level rise (SLR) at the same rate everywhere. Rather, there are spatial variations of SLR superimposed on a global average rise. These variations are forced by dynamic processes1,2,3,4, arising from circulation and variations in temperature and/or salinity, and by static equilibrium processes5, arising from mass redistributions changing gravity and the Earth’s rotation and shape. These sea-level variations form unique spatial patterns, yet there are very few observations verifying predicted patterns or fingerprints6. Here, we present evidence of recently accelerated SLR in a unique 1,000-km-long hotspot on the highly populated North American Atlantic coast north of Cape Hatteras and show that it is consistent with a modelled fingerprint of dynamic SLR. Between 1950–1979 and 1980–2009, SLR rate increases in this northeast hotspot were ∼ 3–4 times higher than the global average. Modelled dynamic plus steric SLR by 2100 at New York City ranges with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario from 36 to 51 cm (ref. 3); lower emission scenarios project 24–36 cm (ref. 7). Extrapolations from data herein range from 20 to 29 cm. SLR superimposed on storm surge, wave run-up and set-up will increase the vulnerability of coastal cities to flooding, and beaches and wetlands to deterioration.

Onshore volume transport ( Stokes drift) due to surface gravity waves propagating toward the beach can result in a compensating Eulerian offshore flow in the surf zone referred to as undertow. Observed offshore flows indicate that wave-driven undertow extends well offshore of the surf zone, over the inner shelves of Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, and North Carolina. Theoretical estimates of the wave-driven offshore transport from linear wave theory and observed wave characteristics account for 50% or more of the observed offshore transport variance in water depths between 5 and 12 m, and reproduce the observed dependence on wave height and water depth.During weak winds, wave-driven cross-shelf velocity profiles over the inner shelf have maximum offshore flow (1-6 cm s(-1)) and vertical shear near the surface and weak flow and shear in the lower half of the water column. The observed offshore flow profiles do not resemble the parabolic profiles with maximum flow at middepth observed within the surf zone. Instead, the vertical structure is similar to the Stokes drift velocity profile but with the opposite direction. This vertical structure is consistent with a dynamical balance between the Coriolis force associated with the offshore flow and an along-shelf "Hasselmann wave stress" due to the influence of the earth's rotation on surface gravity waves. The close agreement between the observed and modeled profiles provides compelling evidence for the importance of the Hasselmann wave stress in forcing oceanic flows. Summer profiles are more vertically sheared than either winter profiles or model profiles, for reasons that remain unclear.

A simple parameterized model for wave-induced burial of mine-like cylinders as a function of grain-size, time-varying, wave orbital velocity and mine diameter was implemented and assessed against results from inert instrumented mines placed off the Indian Rocks Beach (IRB, FL), and off the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO, Edgartown, MA). The steady flow scour parameters provided by Whitehouse (1998) for self-settling cylinders worked well for predicting burial by depth below the ambient seabed for (0.5 m) diameter mines in fine sand at both sites. By including or excluding scour pit infilling, a range of percent burial by surface area was predicted that was also consistent with observations. Rapid scour pit infilling was often seen at MVCO but never at IRB, suggesting that the environmental presence of fine sediment plays a key role in pro- moting infilling. Overprediction of mine scour in coarse sand was corrected by assuming a mine within a field of large ripples buries only until it generates no more turbulence than that produced by surrounding bedforms. The feasibility of using a regional wave model to predict mine burial in both hindcast and real-time fore- cast mode was tested using the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, Washington, DC) WaveWatch 3 (WW3) model. Hindcast waves were adequate for useful operational forcing of mine burial predictions, but five-day wave forecasts introduced large errors. This investigation was part of a larger effort to develop simple yet reliable predictions of mine burial suitable for addressing the operational needs of the U.S. Navy.

Hurricane Katrina caused extreme changes to the barrier islands of the central Gulf of Mexico coast. Dauphin Island, Ala., migrated landward and stranded the remains of its oceanfront row homes in the sea. Chandeleur Islands, La., were completely stripped of their sand, leaving only marshy outcrops in the storm's wake.

The vulnerability of a beach to extreme coastal change during a hurricane can be estimated by comparing the relative elevations of storm-induced water levels to those of the dune or berm. A simple model that defines the coastal response based on these elevations was used to hindcast the potential impact regime along a 50-km stretch of the North Carolina coast to the landfalls of Hurricane Bonnie on August 27, 1998, and Hurricane Floyd on September 16, 1999. Maximum total water levels at the shoreline were calculated as the sum of modeled storm surge, astronomical tide, and wave runup, estimated from offshore wave conditions and the local beach slope using an empirical parameterization. Storm surge and wave runup each accounted for ∼48% of the signal (the remaining 4% is attributed to astronomical tides), indicating that wave-driven process are a significant contributor to hurricane-induced water levels. Expected water levels and lidar-derived measures of pre-storm dune and berm elevation were used to predict the spatially-varying storm-impact regime: swash, collision, or overwash. Predictions were compared to the observed response quantified using a lidar topography survey collected following hurricane landfall. The storm-averaged mean accuracy of the model in predicting the observed impact regime was 55.4%, a significant improvement over the 33.3% accuracy associated with random chance. Model sensitivity varied between regimes and was highest within the overwash regime where the accuracies were 84.2% and 89.7% for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, respectively.The model not only allows for prediction of the general coastal response to storms, but also provides a framework for examining the longshore-variable magnitudes of observed coastal change. For Hurricane Bonnie, shoreline and beach volume changes within locations that experienced overwash or dune erosion were two times greater than locations where wave runup was confined to the foreshore (swash regime). During Hurricane Floyd, this pattern became more pronounced as magnitudes of change were four times greater within the overwash regime than in the swash regime. Comparisons of pre-storm topography to a calm weather survey collected one year after Hurricane Floyd's landfall show long-term beach volume loss at overwash locations. Here, the volume of sand eroded from the beach was balanced by the volume of overwash deposits, indicating that the majority of the sand removed from the beach was transported landward across the island rather than being transported offshore. In overwash locations, sand was removed from the nearshore system and unavailable for later beach recovery, resulting in a more permanent response than observed within the other regimes. These results support the predictive capabilities of the storm scaling model and illustrate that the impact regimes provide a framework for explaining the longshore-variable coastal response to hurricanes.

Hurricane Katrina severely impacted coastal Mississippi, creating large quantities of building and vegetation debris. This paper summarizes techniques to estimate vegetation and nonvegetation debris quantities from light detection and ranging (lidar) data and presents debris volume results for Harrison County, Miss.

A Kongsberg Simrad EM 3000 multibeam sonar (Kongsberg Simrad, Kongsberg, Norway) was used to conduct a set of six repeat high-resolution bathymetric surveys west of Indian Rocks Beach (IRB), just to the south of Clearwater, FL, between January and March 2003, to observe in situ scour and burial of instrumented inert mines and mine-like cylinders. Three closely located study sites were chosen: two fine-sand sites, a shallow one located in similar to 13 m of water depth and a deep site located in similar to 14 m of water depth; and a coarse-sand site in similar to 13 m. Results from these surveys indicate that mines deployed in fine sand are nearly buried within two months of deployment (i.e., they sunk 74.5% or more below the ambient seafloor depth). Mines deployed in coarse sand showed a lesser amount of scour, burying until they present roughly the same hydrodynamic roughness as the surrounding rippled bedforms. These data were also used to test the validity of the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS, Gloucester Point, VA) 2-D burial model. The model worked well in areas of fine sand, sufficiently predicting burial over the course of the experiment. In the area of coarse sand, the model greatly overpredicted the amount of burial. This is believed to be due to the presence of rippled bedforms around the mines, which affect local bottom morphodynamics and are not accounted for in the model, an issue currently being addressed by the modelers. This paper focuses specifically on two instrumented mines: an acoustic mine located in fine sand and an optical instrumented mine located in coarse sand.

The coastal zone of the United States is a dynamic environment evolving in response to both natural processes and human activities. In order to protect coastal populations and resources, a detailed understanding of the physical setting and of the processes responsible for change is required. A sustained program of mapping coastal areas provides a means to establish baseline conditions, document change, and, in conjunction with models of physical processes, predict future behavior. Recent advances in mapping technology, including airborne lidars and hyperspectral imagers, allow for the rapid collection of high-resolution elevation data and land use information on a national scale. These rich data sets are critical to evaluating risk associated with coastal hazards, such as flooding during extreme storms. For example, coastal elevation data is a fundamental parameter in storm surge models that predict where flooding will occur, and land use maps serve as the foundation of assessments that identify the resources and populations that are most vulnerable. A comprehensive, national coastal mapping plan that is designed to collect, manage, and distribute these data, as well as to take advantage of recent progress in mapping technology, will provide a wealth of information for studying the processes of physical change, for determining areas vulnerable to coastal hazards, and for protecting and managing our coastal communities and resources.

Using shoreline water-level time series collected during 10 dynamically diverse field experiments, an empirical parameterization for extreme runup, defined by the 2% exceedence value, has been developed for use on natural beaches over a wide range of conditions. Runup, the height of discrete water-level maxima, depends on two dynamically different processes; time-averaged wave setup and total swash excursion, each of which is parameterized separately. Setup at the shoreline was best parameterized using a dimensional form of the more common Iribarren-based setup expression that includes foreshore beach slope, offshore wave height, and deep-water wavelength. Significant swash can be decomposed into the incident and infragravity frequency bands. Incident swash is also best parameterized using a dimensional form of the Iribarren-based expression. Infragravity swash is best modeled dimensionally using offshore wave height and wavelength and shows no statistically significant linear dependence on either foreshore or surf-zone slope. On infragravity-dominated dissipative beaches, the magnitudes of both setup and swash, modeling both incident and infragravity frequency components together, are dependent only on offshore wave height and wavelength. Statistics of predicted runup averaged over all sites indicate a −17 cm bias and an rms error of 38 cm: the mean observed runup elevation for all experiments was 144 cm. On intermediate and reflective beaches with complex foreshore topography, the use of an alongshore-averaged beach slope in practical applications of the runup parameterization may result in a relative runup error equal to 51% of the fractional variability between the measured and the averaged slope.

Mine burial experiments were conducted on fine and coarse sandy sediments, in 13 to 15-m water depths, 15 km off Indian Rocks Beach, West-Central Florida. Experimental sites were chosen based on extensive acoustic (side scan, chirp and multibeam) surveys and sediment samples collected by USF. Four acoustic (NRL and OMNI Technologies) and six optical (FWG) cylindrical mines were deployed during January-March 2003. The extensive sediment (USF and NRL) data combined with predictions from NOAA wave buoys operating offshore of Tampa, FL during these experiments is used to predict burial by waveinduced scour (VIMS). Extensive wave and current data collected with bottom mounted tripods is compared to physical oceanographic model predictions. Time-dependent scour measured using the optical and acoustic mines, characterized by sector scan sonar (USF), ROV video (USF), and diver photographs/observations (USF and NRL) is compared to model predictions.