Atmospheric radiative transfer is one of the most important processes in the climate system, because the only interaction of the Earth with outer space in terms of energy exchange takes place through radiation. The Sun is the primary source of energy for the Earth's climate system. The response to perturbations of the radiation balance, e.g. in terms of near surface air temperature change, can either be amplified or damped as the result of temperature dependent processes in the climate system. Ozone has an atmospheric residence time in the order of weeks to a few months, depending on altitude, geographical location and time of the year. Ozone in the troposphere, on the other hand, has dramatically increased since the turn of the Century. Aerosols may change the Earth's albedo in a direct way through absorption and backscatter of solar radiation and indirectly as condensation nuclei in cloud formation.

ADVERTISEMENT RETURN TO ISSUEPREVCorrespondence/Rebut...Correspondence/RebuttalNEXTReply to Comment on “Scientists’ Views about Attribution of Global Warming”Bart Verheggen*†‡, Bart Strengers†, Kees Vringer†, John Cook§∥, Rob van Dorland⊥, Jeroen Peters†, Hans Visser†, and Leo Meyer†View Author Information† PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands‡ Energy Research Centre of The Netherlands ECN, P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten, The Netherlands§ University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD 4072, Australia∥ University of Western Australia, Crawley, Washington 6009, Australia⊥ Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), P.O. Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands*Phone: +31 20 525 8271; e-mail: [email protected]Cite this: Environ. Sci. Technol. 2014, 48, 23, 14059–14060Publication Date (Web):November 18, 2014Publication History Published online18 November 2014Published inissue 2 December 2014https://doi.org/10.1021/es505183eCopyright © 2014 American Chemical SocietyRIGHTS & PERMISSIONSACS AuthorChoiceArticle Views1163Altmetric-Citations-LEARN ABOUT THESE METRICSArticle Views are the COUNTER-compliant sum of full text article downloads since November 2008 (both PDF and HTML) across all institutions and individuals. These metrics are regularly updated to reflect usage leading up to the last few days.Citations are the number of other articles citing this article, calculated by Crossref and updated daily. Find more information about Crossref citation counts.The Altmetric Attention Score is a quantitative measure of the attention that a research article has received online. Clicking on the donut icon will load a page at altmetric.com with additional details about the score and the social media presence for the given article. Find more information on the Altmetric Attention Score and how the score is calculated. Share Add toView InAdd Full Text with ReferenceAdd Description ExportRISCitationCitation and abstractCitation and referencesMore Options Share onFacebookTwitterWechatLinked InReddit PDF (204 KB) Get e-AlertsSUBJECTS:Climate,Climate change Get e-Alerts

Abstract. Replication is an important part of science, and by repeating past analyses, we show that a number of papers in the scientific literature contain severe methodological flaws which can easily be identified through simple tests and demonstrations. In many cases, shortcomings are related to a lack of robustness, leading to results that are not universally valid but rather an artifact of a particular experimental set-up. Some examples presented here have ignored data that do not fit the conclusions, and in several other cases, inappropriate statistical methods have been adopted or conclusions have been based on misconceived physics. These papers may serve as educational case studies for why certain analytical approaches sometimes are unsuitable in providing reliable answers. They also highlight the merit of replication. A lack of common replication has repercussions for the quality of the scientific literature, and may be a reason why some controversial questions remain unanswered even when ignorance could be reduced. Agnotology is the study of such ignorance. A free and open-source software is provided for demonstration purposes.

Method further details..............................................4 Replication demonstrations.........................................6 Questionable analytical set-up.....................................6 Selective use of data..................................................7 Curve-fitting...........................................................10 Biased analytical design............................................13 Ignoring negative tests.............................................16 Questionable presumptions.......................................20 Questionable representation in data...........................22 Looking at irrelevant aspects.....................................23 False dichotomies....................................................24 Circular reasoning....................................................29 Statistical errors......................................................33 Misinterpretation of statistical intervals.......................33 Failure to account for the actual degrees of freedom.....36 Misconceived mathematics........................................38 Incorrect interpretation of mathematics......................39 Implausible physics..................................................41 Lack of plausible physics...........................................41 Incomplete account of the physics..............................42 Irrelevant analogies.................................................43 Misrepresentation of publications...............................44 References..............................................................46 Figures...................................................................56 Tables....................................................................60 Manual for replicationDemos.....................................64

In the ECHAM5/MPI‐OM model a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation results in a global surface cooling of 0.72 K. The mechanisms that are responsible for this cooling are investigated. Additional experiments were performed with a one‐dimensional radiative convective model in which anomalies from the climate model were prescribed. Fast atmospheric feedbacks are essential to maintain and strengthen the global surface cooling caused by a THC collapse. Reduced downward long wave radiation exceeds the decreased upward long wave radiation. This decreased downward long wave radiation is caused by reduced water vapor content rather than by ice‐albedo feedbacks. Also, the decrease in water vapor is much stronger than suggested by the water vapor feedback expected from the simulated albedo change. The large decrease in water vapor is the main feedback. On the regional scale, changes in cloud water and cloud radiative forcing further modify the surface cooling.

The structural modulation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) induced by a realistic enhancement of the ultraviolet (UV) radiation associated with the 11‐year solar cycle is investigated with a coupled Chemistry‐Climate Model. It has been found that the main features of the modulation are an eastward shift of the surface Atlantic center of action into Europe and a vertical extension into the stratosphere in solar maximum conditions. These model results are in good agreement with observational results in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) centers of action. Confirmation of the modulation effect of solar activity on the NAO spatial structure by a Chemistry‐Climate Model simulation gives support to the occurrence of a real solar effect on the tropospheric circulation.

Het klimaat verandert: de zeespiegel stijgt, de afvoeren van de rivieren nemen toe. De natuur reageert al op de opgetreden temperatuurveranderingen. De waarneembare effecten in Nederland zijn beperkt van omvang. De komende tientallen jaren zullen de ontwikkelingen naar verwachting sneller gaan. Extreem warme en droge zomers zullen vaker voorkomen. Daarnaasy is de snelheid waarmee de temperatuur stijgt, waarschijnlijk te hoog voor veel organismen om zich te kunnen aanpassen of te kunnen verhuizen. Ook de landbouw en de toeristensector staan voor veranderingen, die economisch gezien zowel positief als negatief kunnen uitpakken; dat is onder andere afhankelijk van ontwikkelingen elders in Europa. De verwachte gezondheidswinst door algehele temperatuurstijging wordt waarschijnlijk grotendeels teniet gedaan door het verhoogde sterfterisico?s bij extreem warm weer

Bij gelegenheid van de officiele inwerkingtreding van het Kyoto-protocol hebben Wageningen UR, KNMI, RIVM, NWO, VU en ECN een handzaam boekje uitgegeven met antwoorden op alle vragen die u maar over de zin en onzin van Kyoto kunt bedenken. Het boekje legt uit wat het protocol inhoudt en wat het betekent voor milieu, economie en samenleving. Ook het jargon dat door klimaatonderzoekers en in het internationale onderhandelingscircuit wordt gebruikt, wordt in begrijpelijke bewoordingen