Abstract Population abundance estimation is a critical yet challenging task for wildlife management decision‐making. For aerial surveys of terrestrial mammals in highly heterogenous landscapes, estimation models that address multiple sources of detection bias are needed. A typical hybrid mark–resight model includes an additive parameter that accounts for detection probabilities derived from marked animals. While this additive hybrid method improves abundance estimates, there remains a need to account for heterogeneity due to the conditional dependence in detection probability inherent in aerial surveys with multiple observers. We propose a modified approach, referred to as a conditional hybrid model, to address this heterogeneity directly. The conditional hybrid model applies a mark–resight approach typically used to account for tag loss in mark–recapture studies to aerial surveys with a subset of the population marked with GPS collars. We conduct a structured comparison between the additive and conditional hybrid estimation models and fit these two hybrid models to data from a 2020 aerial survey of mule deer in southern California. Both the additive and conditional hybrid models had general agreement in overall model structure and variable importance, however, the conditional model outperformed the additive model in capturing sources of detection heterogeneity and overall abundance estimates differed by 9%. Our top‐ranked models suggest that deer movement, larger group sizes, and rougher topography increased detection probability, whereas high cloud cover, obscuring vegetation and high observer fatigue and helicopter height decreased detection probability. Our findings illustrate the need to assess multiple correction methods when estimating abundance from aerial survey data to ensure accurate abundance estimates are being used to inform wildlife management strategies, with the caveat that specific survey conditions may dictate which method is the most appropriate for achieving robust estimates. These approaches represent the cutting‐edge science on wildlife abundance estimation from aerial survey data, a critical ingredient for effective wildlife management. By testing innovative hybrid methods, we present the first formal comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of each method within a highly heterogeneous landscape, providing practitioners with necessary information for future application.
Understanding patterns of home range size and selection are critical to protect vulnerable wild populations, particularly in semi-arid regions with increasing land use pressures. Using movement data from 64 GPS-collared southern mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus fulinginatus), monitored over two years in San Diego County, we assessed patterns and drivers of home range following a two-step approach. First, we implemented seasonal home range selection functions to examine variation in selection and avoidance of environmental factors. We then used these results to evaluate the relative impact of environmental factors in combination with intrinsic factors on home range size. We found that deer use of high-quality forage and water sources varied seasonally. These variations in resource use, along with sex and age, played a role in determining home range size of the southern mule deer. Home range size was larger for male deer, and smaller among older females. Home ranges for both sexes were smaller when forage quality increased and larger with greater variability in water proximity. The limited resources of semi-arid environments, like water and forage, affect southern mule deer populations and highlight the importance of evaluating combined intrinsic and extrinsic factors of home range size and composition to inform management practices.
Peninsular bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis nelsoni) are found exclusively in Southern California and Baja Mexico. They are federally endangered due to multiple threats, including introduced infectious disease. From 1981 - 2017, we conducted surveillance for 16 pathogens and estimated population sizes, adult survival, and lamb survival. We used mixed effects regression models to assess disease patterns at the individual and population levels. Pathogen infection/exposure prevalence varied both spatially and temporally. Our findings indicate that the primary predictor of individual pathogen infection/exposure was the region in which an animal was captured, implying that transmission is driven by local ecological or behavioral factors. Higher Mycoplasma ovipneumoniae seropositivity was associated with lower lamb survival, consistent with lambs having high rates of pneumonia-associated mortality, which may be slowing population recovery. There was no association between M. ovipneumoniae and adult survival. Adult survival was positively associated with population size and parainfluenza-3 virus seroprevalence in the same year, and orf virus seroprevalence in the previous year. Peninsular bighorn sheep are recovering from small population sizes in a habitat of environmental extremes, compounded by infectious disease. Our research can help inform future pathogen surveillance and population monitoring for the long-term conservation of this population.
Disease plays a major role in shaping wildlife populations worldwide, and changes in landscape conditions can significantly influence risk of pathogen exposure, a threat to vulnerable wild species. Three viruses that cause hemorrhagic disease affect cervid populations in the USA (Odocoileus hemionus adenovirus, bluetongue virus, and epizootic hemorrhagic disease virus), but little is known of their distribution and prevalence in wild populations. We explored the distribution and co-occurrence of seroprevalence of these three pathogens in southern mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus fuliginatus), a subspecies of conservation concern and a harvested species native to southern California, to evaluate the distribution of exposure to these pathogens relative to landscape attributes. We found that habitat type, level of development, and proximity to livestock may affect hemorrhagic disease seroprevalence in southern mule deer. Continued monitoring of hemorrhagic disease-causing viruses in areas where deer are in proximity to cattle and human development is needed to better understand the implications of future outbreaks in wild populations and to identify opportunities to mitigate disease impacts in southern mule deer and other cervid species.
Wide-ranging large carnivores pose myriad challenges for conservation, especially in highly fragmented landscapes. Over a 13-year period, we combined monitoring of radio collared pumas (Puma concolor) with complementary multi-generational genetic analyses to inform puma conservation in southern California, USA. Our goals were to generate survivorship estimates, determine causes of mortality, identify barriers to movement, and determine the genetic and demographic challenges to puma persistence among >20,000,000 people and extensive urban, suburban, and exurban development. Despite protection from hunting, annual survival for radio collared pumas was surprisingly low (55.8%), and humans caused the majority of puma deaths. The most common sources of mortality were vehicle collisions (28% of deaths), and mortalities resulting from depredation permits issued after pumas killed domestic animals (17% of deaths). Other human-caused mortalities included illegal shootings, public safety removals, and human-caused wildfire. An interstate highway (I-15) bisecting this study area, and associated development, have created a nearly impermeable barrier to puma movements, resulting in severe genetic restriction and demographic isolation of the small puma population (n ~ 17-27 adults) in the Santa Ana Mountains west of I-15. Highways that bisect habitat or divide remaining "conserved" habitat, and associated ongoing development, threaten to further subdivide this already fragmented puma population and increase threats to survival. This study highlights the importance of combining demographic and genetic analyses, and illustrates that in the absence of effective measures to reduce mortality and enhance safe movement across highways, translocation of pumas, such as was done with the endangered Florida panther (P. c. coryi), may ultimately be necessary to prevent further genetic decline and ensure persistence of the Santa Ana Mountains population.