The paper enters the current debate at the intersection of comparative political economy and international trade on the role of price and non-price competitiveness in influencing export. Through an econometric exploration, we identify price competitiveness as a non-negligible factor in driving export for a set of Organisation for the Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1994 to 2019. The documented price sensitiveness, combined with the institutions and policies adopted to promote export-led growth, casts an unsettling light on the prospects for a recovery, particularly for the Euro area. These worrying conclusions are not, however, unescapable. The emergence of the export-led growth model – with its twin brother, the debt-led one – answered the demand-generating problems created by years of wage share decreases and a steady retreat of the State from its traditional demand management role. Drastically inverting these tendencies would contribute to strongly narrowing the need for export-led strategies.

The disciplinary and distributive role of unemployment has long been acknowledged in economic theory and is at the heart of conflict inflation theory. In this article, we combine conflict inflation and growth in an autonomous demand-led model with endogenous distribution. In this way, we extend typical results of conflict inflation models to the long run, finding the following: (a) an inverse relation between the unemployment rate and inflation, in line with the non-accelerationist Phillips curve; (b) an inverse relation between the growth rate of autonomous demand and the unemployment rate and, for this reason; (c) a direct relation between the growth rate of autonomous demand and the wage share. The relationship described in (c) reveals the underlying conflict over the determination of growth patterns, paving the way for an analysis of the political economy of autonomous demand, and in particular, of fiscal and monetary policies. We conclude that macroeconomic policy constitutes another dimension of the conflict between classes over the division of the social product.

This work takes inspiration from four theoretical strands: recent developments in ecological macroeconomics; the Schumpeterian framework of evolutionary economics that emphasises the entrepreneurial role of the State; the stock-flow consistent approach to macroeconomic modelling; and the supermultiplier model. Building upon these approaches, we develop a formal model that reproduces key interactions between the economy, the financial sector, the ecosystem and the society. We test and assess the effects of several fiscal policies. We find that, in principle, mission-oriented innovation policies are the most effective option in supporting innovation and growth, while reducing income inequality. However, lacking a 'green' and progressive taxation system, they are unlikely to reverse the current trend in atmospheric temperature.

Recently, demand-led growth theories reshaped the study of comparative political economy. Since the Baccaro and Pontusson critique of Varieties of Capitalism, a new wave of studies has sought to analyze national economies in terms of their main demand drivers of growth. Post-Keynesian authors provided extensions to perfect the fit between demand-led growth theories and comparative political economy. We argue that the Sraffian supermultiplier provides a growth theory compatible with the growth model perspective advanced by Baccaro and Pontusson and has advantages over Kaleckian and New Keynesian approaches. The concept of autonomous demand, which comprises government spending, export, and debt-financed consumption, is already central for the studies of growth models, and the supermultiplier provides a theory that coherently understands the relation between the autonomous demand drivers and the other induced components of demand. We demonstrate our arguments by decomposing the growth of four advanced economies: the United States, Germany, Japan, and Sweden. The decomposition shows the importance of separating the autonomous from the induced components and highlights the relevance of public expenditures and exports as growth drivers in advanced economies.

This paper presents a long-run study of the relationship between autonomous and induced demand for the United States. Our exercise can be considered a contribution to the burgeoning literature revolving around autonomous demand-led growth models, which have displayed the potential to establish bridges not only within the post-Keynesian community, but also between post-Keynesian economics and other evolutionary and pluralistic approaches to economic growth. In particular, we study the long-run dynamic relationship between autonomous demand – which comprises R&D expenditures, government spending, exports and residential investment – and induced demand. Through a cointegration model with quantile-varying coefficients, we account for the possibility of changes in the relationship between the two variables and demonstrate that the long-run equilibrium relationship between autonomous and induced demand is robust to exogenous shocks and changes in the parameters.

We study the residential investment-economic activity nexus in the United States during the period 1960-2020. We find evidence of symmetric and asymmetric frequency-domain Granger causality running unidirectionally from residential investment (RES) to output. This unidirectional causal relationship is both permanent and transitory: transitory shocks in RES have transitory effects on GDP, while permanent shocks in RES have permanent effects on GDP. Our results validate the hypothesis of Fiebiger [2018. 'Semi-Autonomous Household Expenditures as the Causa Causans of Postwar US Business Cycles: The Stability and Instability of Luxemburg-Type External Markets.' Cambridge Journal of Economics 42 (1): 155-175] and Fiebiger and Lavoie [2019. 'Trend and Business Cycles with External Markets: Non-Capacity Generating Semi-Autonomous Expenditures and Effective Demand.' Metroeconomica 70 (2): 247-262], who state that housing investment in the US can be analogous to a Luxemburg-Kalecki external market. Our findings can also be read through the lenses of the recent autonomous demand-led growth literature. In particular, we single out a specific component of autonomous demand and describe its prominent role in the US variety of capitalism. Thus, we conclude that residential investment, despite constituting a small overall share of GDP, is not only the cycle but is also the trend of the US economy.

This paper presents a long-run study of the relationship between autonomous and induced demand spanning 1960–2019 for the United States. Our exercise can be considered a contribution to the burgeoning empirical literature revolving around autonomous demand-led growth models, which have displayed the potential to establish bridges not only within the Post- Keynesian community, but also between Post- Keynesian economics and other evolutionary and pluralistic approaches to economic growth. In particular, we study the long-run dynamic relationship between autonomous demand - which comprises R&D expenditures, government spending, exports and residential investment - and induced demand. Through a cointegration model with quantile-varying coefficients, we account for the possibility of changes in the relationship between the two variables of interest and demonstrate that the long-run equilibrium relationship between autonomous and induced demand is robust to exogenous shocks and changes in the parameters.

This article integrates the Sraffian approach to demand-led growth theory with insights from Keynes's concept of finance and from the monetary circuit approach. The paper's first contribution is the extension of Garegnani's interpretation of Keynes's General Theory's originality and limitations to Keynes's 1937-1938 papers on 'finance.' In both cases, it is a question of freeing Keynes from the ties of Marginalist theory. Second, the paper identifies a complementarity between the Keynesian concept of finance, some insights from the monetary circuit, and the role attributed by the Sraffian take of demand -led growth to the autonomous components of demand, which are also Kalecki's external markets. Finally, the authors propose a subsidiary role for the liquidity-preference theory in the context of the determination of the structure of interest rates, given the short-term base rate set by monetary authorities.

In recent years, a revival of the so-called 'utilisation controversy' has seen several scholars engage in a lively debate that still revolves around the same old question: what should we expect, beyond the short run, with regard to the degree of capacity utilisation? In this article, we tackle this issue by investigating the relationship between the level of economic activity and the ensuing utilisation of existing capacity. In order to assess the effect of the former on the latter and to provide a robust and clear picture of this phenomenon, we use a Structural VAR and Local Projection methodologies to estimate three alternative models, based on monthly data on the US economy. After presenting our empirical results, which point to only temporary effects on capacity utilisation of shocks to the level of economic activity, we verify their compatibility with alternative demand-led growth models. We conclude that autonomous demand-led models cum convergence towards normal utilisation perform better in terms of consistency with the econometric evidence, while the latter seems to call for a re-examination of 'conventional' versions of the Neo-Kaleckian model.

This paper aims to stimulate the convergence of the Sraffian approach to demand-led growth theory with insights from monetary circuit theory and stock-flow models. The first Sraffian contribution to this convergence we identify is the extension of Garegnani’s interpretation of Keynes’ General Theory’s originality and limitations to Keynes’ 1937 papers on “finance.” In both cases, it is a question of freeing Keynes from the ties of marginalist theory. After discussing some troubles of the monetary circuit, we identify a complementarity between the Keynesian concept of finance, some insights of the monetary circuit, and the role attributed by the Sraffian take of demand-led growth to the autonomous components of demand (which are also Kalecki’s external markets). This seems to us to be the second Sraffian contribution to this convergence towards a monetary theory of demand-led growth.

This paper looks at the effect of demand shocks on the investment share of the economy. Using panel data on 20 OECD countries, we show that the rate of growth of autonomous demand (exports, public spending, and housing investment) is positively correlated with subsequent values of the share of business investment in GDP. By means of an instrumental-variables (IV) strategy, we confirm a positive effect of demand dynamics on the business investment share. We instrument autonomous demand with (i) US demand for imports interacted with exposure to trade with the US, (ii) openness to trade of a country's main export destinations, and (iii) military spending. A permanent 1-percentage-point increase in autonomous-demand growth raises the investment share by 1.5 to 1.9 percentage points of GDP in our preferred panel IV specification. Our results provide empirical support for the view that the influence of aggregate demand on capital accumulation can be a major source of hysteresis. Our results are inconsistent with the canonical New Keynesian three-equations model, the Neo-Kaleckian model with flexible equilibrium utilization, and Classical–Marxian growth models. A positive influence of autonomous demand on the investment share is instead compatible with demand-led models in which capacity adjusts to demand in the long run.

•The search for safe financial assets can affect economic growth and financial stability.•The search for green financial assets can exacerbate climate change if capitals are free and exchange rates are floating.•Lacking a strong coordination, green government policies are likely to generate negative side effects for other areas.•Ecological efficiency gains are likely to be offset by the higher growth rate of the economy (rebound effect).•The effectiveness of green behaviours and policies depends on the impact of cross-border financial flows on exchange rates.

The apparently never-ending phase of economic slowdown that advanced economies have been experiencing in recent decades has recently contributed to the resurrection of the hoary old argument of 'secular stagnation'. In this paper, situated intellectually within the strand of research documenting the negative impact on growth of inequality and financialization, we elaborate on the idea that such a prolonged period of stagnation is associated with a new paradigm of socio-economic policy, known as 'finance-dominated capitalism'. In this way, we distance ourselves from the mainstream 'secular stagnation' narrative, adopting instead a post-Keynesian perspective that allows us to discuss the links between financialization and inequality, on one hand, and economic performance, on the other. Then, we submit our arguments to empirical scrutiny by undertaking an econometric analysis of 21 OECD countries between 1990 and 2016. The evidence indicates thatexcessivelevels of financialization, along with high inequality and weak labor market institutions, have a negative impact on real growth. Based on our findings, we propose possible demand-side policies, to be implemented through expansionary fiscal measures, which could help sustain GDP growth and employment in the current context of stagnation, mitigating income inequality and sustaining an inclusive recovery at the same time.

The purpose of this article is to explain the determinants behind the decline of labour share in the last three to four decades in OECD countries. In our view, this decline was determined by financialisation and was deepened by the structural changes that occurred almost simultaneously in those economies. Financialisation, or finance-dominated capitalism, from the 1980s onwards, was a key element in the strategic offensive of the advanced countries' dominant classes to appropriate higher shares of national income and to restore their control over the political process, a control that had been threatened by a generalised advancement of the labour movement in the 1970s. The development of a finance-dominated capitalism was helped by the process of global-isation, which affected not only OECD countries but also many others. A new, though unstable, macroeconomic model emerged, which we will call financial capitalism. In financial capitalism, trade unions lost power vis-a-vis capital, labour flexibility increased enormously, and a structural change from manufacturing to services was accelerated in rich countries. This resulted in negative consequences for labour share and income inequality. After having provided a theoretical discussion of the determinants of the compression of the wage share, making reference to the relevant literature, we submit our hypotheses to empirical scrutiny, performing a panel data analysis on 28 OECD Countries. The results of the estimations provide support to the theoretical argument.

This work builds upon four different theoretical approaches: i. the Sraffian supermultiplier model; ii. the Schumpeterian framework of evolutionary economics that emphasises the entrepreneurial role of the state; iii. the ‘stock-flow consistent’ approach to macroeconomic modelling; and iv. recent developments in ecological economics literature aiming at cross-breeding post-Keynesian theories and models with more traditional ‘green’ topics. Our main purpose is to develop a simple analytical tool that can help examine: a) the impact of government spending on private innovation; b) the impact of innovation on economic growth and the ecosystem; and c) the impact of ecological feedbacks on economic growth and government spending effectiveness. We find that, in principle, government can be successful in supporting innovation and growth while slowing down matter and energy reserves’ depletion rates, and tackling climate change. However, the latter may well affect government policy effectiveness.