The risk associated with spread of Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky), from infested areas in New York City to the wide array of landfills across the eastern United States contracted by the city since 1997 was unknown, but of great concern. Landfills, some as far as South Carolina, Virginia, and Ohio, occupied forest types and climates at high risk of Asian longhorned beetle establishment. The city proposed a separate waste wood collection known as the "311 System;" this was estimated to cost federal and state agencies $6.1 to $9.1 million per year, including the cost of processing and disposal of the wood. Pathway analysis was used to quantify the probability that Asian longhorned beetle present in wood waste collected at curbside would survive transport, compaction, and burial to form a mated pair. The study found that in seven alternate management scenarios, risks with most pathways are very low, especially given existing mitigations. Mitigations included chemical control, removal of infested trees, and burial of wood waste in managed landfills that involved multiple-layering, compaction, and capping of dumped waste with a 15-cm soil cover at the end of each day. Although the risk of business-as-usual collection and disposal practices was virtually nil, any changes of policy or practice such as illegal dumping or disposal at a single landfill increased the risk many thousandfold. By rigorously maintaining and monitoring existing mitigations, it was estimated that taxpayers would save $75 to $122 million dollars over the next decade.

This article summarizes a quantitative microbial risk assessment designed to characterize the public health impact of consumption of shell eggs and egg products contaminated with Salmonella Enteritidis (SE). This risk assessment's objectives were to: (1) establish the baseline risk of foodborne illness from SE, (2) identify and evaluate potential risk mitigation strategies, and (3) identify data gaps related to future research efforts. The risk assessment model has five modules. The Egg Production module estimates the number of eggs produced that are SE‐contaminated. Shell Egg Processing, Egg Products Processing, and Preparation & Consumption modules estimate the increase or decrease in the numbers of SE organisms in eggs or egg products as they pass through storage, transportation, processing, and preparation. A Public Health Outcomes module then calculates the incidence of illnesses and four clinical outcomes, as well as the cases of reactive arthritis associated with SE infection following consumption. The baseline model estimates an average production of 2.3 million SE‐contaminated shell eggs/year of the estimated 69 billion produced annually and predicts an average of 661,633, human illnesses per year from consumption of these eggs. The model estimates ≈ 94% of these cases recover without medical care, 5% visit a physician, an additional 0.5% are hospitalized, and 0.05% result in death. The contribution of SE from commercially pasteurized egg products was estimated to be negligible. Five mitigation scenarios were selected for comparison of their individual and combined effects on the number of human illnesses. Results suggest that mitigation in only one segment of the farm‐to‐table continuum will be less effective than several applied in different segments. Key data gaps and areas for future research include the epidemiology of SE on farms, the bacteriology of SE in eggs, human behavior in food handling and preparation, and human responses to SE exposure.

ABSTRACT A stochastic model estimating growth of Salmonella Enteritidis during egg collection, processing, storage, and transportation is described. The model contains equations for internal egg temperature, yolk membrane integrity, and exponential growth rate of S. Enteritidis. Monte Carlo simulations determined that no growth was likely to occur during the average 4.5 d of the egg's progression from lay through transportation. However, various time‐temperature combinations affected the subsequent abuse an egg can withstand before S. Enteritidis growth begins. Scenarios demonstrated the relative importance of ambient air temperature and indicated the greatest safety improvements in this phase for shell eggs would result from preventing unrefrigerated storage or hastening cooling immediately after lay.

Risk managers increasingly face having to justify their decisions in allocating limited resources. These decisions may include prioritizing hazards, determining appropriate levels of safety, and identifying and selecting optimal risk reduction strategies. These decisions require making choices among alternatives, choices that may be difficult because they invariably involve trade-offs. Integrating risk assessment and economic analyses can aid decision making by determining the benefits and costs of alternative actions. Risk assessment and economic analysis provide the measurement tools that will facilitate intelligent, informed, risk management and will enable effective and efficient resource allocation decisions.

Most of the concern about foodborne disease has been focused on the immediate effects of acute infection. Recent information has shown that many of these foodborne infections also have long-term sequelae with serious health effects and a significant economic impact. To increase the awareness of animal health professionals to these sequelae, the authors discuss two groups of sequelae which are strongly associated with preceding infection (reactive arthritides, including Reiter's syndrome, and the Guillain-Barré syndrome) as well as the possible association between Crohn's disease and Mycobacterium paratuberculosis. The discussion includes a description of the disease syndromes along with epidemiological and economic information. More reliable epidemiologial and economic data on chronic sequelae to foodborne disease will be needed for future evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of mitigation strategies to reduce the occurrence of foodborne pathogens.

The authors propose standard definitions for terms and concepts commonly used in agricultural risk analysis. The differences between risk analysis and risk assessment are explained, and the relationship of these two terms with the more familiar terms "epidemiology" and "biostatistics" is discussed. The authors stress the importance of differentiating words and phrases which share similar sounds but are subtly different, and the necessity of developing a common nomenclature in agricultural risk analysis. An opportunity is provided for readers to comment on the definitions presented.

The United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (USDA-APHIS) has been exploring methods of quantitative risk assessment to support decision-making, provide risk management options and identify research needs. With current changes in world trade, regulatory decisions must have a scientific basis which is transparent, consistent, documentable and defensible. These quantitative risk assessment methods are described in an accompanying paper in this issue. In the present article, the authors provide an illustration by presenting an application of these methods. Prior to proposing changes in regulations, USDA officials requested an assessment of the risk of introduction of foreign animal disease to the United States of America through garbage from Alaskan cruise ships. The risk assessment team used a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods to evaluate this question. Quantitative risk assessment methods were used to estimate the amount of materials of foreign origin being sent to Alaskan landfills. This application of quantitative risk assessment illustrates the flexibility of the methods in addressing specific questions. By applying these methods, specific areas were identified where more scientific information and research were needed. Even with limited information, the risk assessment provided APHIS management with a scientific basis for a regulatory decision.

The international animal health community is advocating a more widespread use of quantitative risk assessment in making international trade decisions. In this article, the authors explain why quantitative risk assessment is a valuable tool, outline a process with key steps for developing a quantitative risk assessment, and describe a method for quantifying the uncertainty associated with the results of a risk assessment.